Cut or keep 2023?

[MikeT14]

54 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

Where do you see anywhere that we can’t restructure Roullier’s contract again? I’m not saying restructure it now, I’m saying restructure his contract on the day the new league year starts in 2023 in March to create cap room to re-sign some of our free agents & sign a few FAs.

So you wanna potentially push another $4 million of his salary down the line? You’re likely 100% cutting him in 2024 then or trying to redo everything again. 

[offbyone]

4 minutes ago, MikeT14 said:

So you wanna potentially push another $4 million of his salary down the line? You’re likely 100% cutting him in 2024 then or trying to redo everything again. 

Agreed.  The more you restructure the more you kick the can and add dead cap.

The real question with Roullier is if he will ever truly be healthy again?  You can't spend that much money if it is even a question.  He had a very serious injury and then had another.    You can draft a premiere center in the 3rd round....

[turtle28]

14 minutes ago, MikeT14 said:

So you wanna potentially push another $4 million of his salary down the line? You’re likely 100% cutting him in 2024 then or trying to redo everything again. 

I hear you. Maybe instead of a restructure where you push off that $ into the future you can get him to agree to a full out pay cut. If he doesn’t take that, then he’d be cut. If Roullier is cut by us, he’s probably looking at a vet min contract next year, so it would make sense for him to take a pay cut to have a chance to compete here for the starting job next year against Larsen & a rookie we draft.

[turtle28]

10 minutes ago, offbyone said:

Agreed.  The more you restructure the more you kick the can and add dead cap.

The real question with Roullier is if he will ever truly be healthy again?  You can't spend that much money if it is even a question.  He had a very serious injury and then had another.    You can draft a premiere center in the 3rd round....

That is true, I’d ask him to take a true pay cut, not a restructure which puts $ out in the future as you said. He’s obviously not worth $12.87 million next year regardless if he starts most of our games or not.

If he wants to stay on this roster, that cap # has got to come down somehow & asking him to take a straight up pay cut or be cut is what I’d do.

If he’s cut, he & his agent have to realize that he’s looking at trying to make a team next year on a vet min offer most likely bc he’s coming off two years of season ending injuries. Taking a straight up pay cut would make most sense for him where he could earn some of the cut he takes back in incentives.

[Ghostnote]

If it's not obvious, a QB needs to be in the mix. If it's not, then we seriously have to see what Sam Howell can bring after a season and offseason. But Wentz has to go. Too much money to sit on the bench looking like Dopey from the 7 dwarves. Cutting Wentz saves 26.1M in cap space. 

The QB free agents are thin. Geno Smith, Jacoby Brissett, Jimmy G, Heinicke, Baker, Darnold, Lamar Jackson, which are just a handful of the top guys. 

The issue: Heinicke being a free agent, he will have a market value around $19-20M. 

Curtis Samuel and Kendall Fuller are taking up nearly 11% of the cap room we have. So you have to restructure Samuel and Fuller. 

Cut Logan Thomas. Cut Trai Turner. Cut Nick Martin. 

You also have to account for Montez Sweat jumping from 3.7M to over 11M in cap hit. 

Cole Holcomb is a must resign. Before his injury he was a tackling machine and was ALWAYS around the ball. Very suspect in coverage, but in run defense, he was solid. 

Don't worry about Logan Thomas. He is making $6M+ a season when we have Amani Rodgers, Cole Turner, and John Bates. It's not glorious, but it can get the job done. 

But cutting Wentz will open up space for Payne. Its also fine if Chase Roullier is released. There are plenty of good OC's in free agency and in the draft that can play the position. Roullier was a 7th round selection if I remember. It's fine. 

[turtle28]

1 hour ago, Ghostnote said:

If it's not obvious, a QB needs to be in the mix. If it's not, then we seriously have to see what Sam Howell can bring after a season and offseason. But Wentz has to go. Too much money to sit on the bench looking like Dopey from the 7 dwarves. Cutting Wentz saves 26.1M in cap space. 

The QB free agents are thin. Geno Smith, Jacoby Brissett, Jimmy G, Heinicke, Baker, Darnold, Lamar Jackson, which are just a handful of the top guys. 

The issue: Heinicke being a free agent, he will have a market value around $19-20M. 

Curtis Samuel and Kendall Fuller are taking up nearly 11% of the cap room we have. So you have to restructure Samuel and Fuller. 

Cut Logan Thomas. Cut Trai Turner. Cut Nick Martin. 

You also have to account for Montez Sweat jumping from 3.7M to over 11M in cap hit. 

Cole Holcomb is a must resign. Before his injury he was a tackling machine and was ALWAYS around the ball. Very suspect in coverage, but in run defense, he was solid. 

Don't worry about Logan Thomas. He is making $6M+ a season when we have Amani Rodgers, Cole Turner, and John Bates. It's not glorious, but it can get the job done. 

But cutting Wentz will open up space for Payne. Its also fine if Chase Roullier is released. There are plenty of good OC's in free agency and in the draft that can play the position. Roullier was a 7th round selection if I remember. It's fine. 

I don’t see any way that Heinicke gets $19-20 mil a year. I think he gets $9 to $10 mil like Ryan Fitzpatrick did to come here & compete w/ Heinicke to be our starter in 2021.

Roullier was a 6th round pick. Still, it is true we can find another center in the draft or one in FA. Still, I’d rather him take a pay cut to stay & compete w/ the rookie we draft. There are some good centers in this years draft who will probably go in round 3, and I wouldn’t mind drafting one of them.

[lavar703]

I really think this off-season is going to be a total dud. My guess is Payne and Holcomb walk. We do nothing in free agency as well. The ownership situation is just going to be a major issue. There’s also the chance Snyder just says eff it and keeps the team and we’re just screwed because he can’t afford anything anymore. With just so much uncertainty I don’t see how we do anything of substance? 

[offbyone]

10 hours ago, Ghostnote said:

The issue: Heinicke being a free agent, he will have a market value around $19-20M. 

I don't think so.  At most winston contract 14M/year.  After that Mariota, Trubisky, Garropolo, Bridgewater were all well less than 10.  I think he makes less than 10 as he will not be signed as a long term starter.  

[turtle28]

13 hours ago, lavar703 said:

I really think this off-season is going to be a total dud. My guess is Payne and Holcomb walk. We do nothing in free agency as well. The ownership situation is just going to be a major issue. There’s also the chance Snyder just says eff it and keeps the team and we’re just screwed because he can’t afford anything anymore. With just so much uncertainty I don’t see how we do anything of substance? 

Hmm… haven’t thought about the ownership/sale of the team angle.

That’s a true point. When JKC had the team up for sale in 1999, we lost Trent Green bc we didn’t have an owner to approve his contract or even a franchise tag, I think. I think that’s what Casserly said.

I guess it all depends on when the sale is happening. 

[Ghostnote]

On 12/9/2022 at 2:53 PM, turtle28 said:

I don’t see any way that Heinicke gets $19-20 mil a year. I think he gets $9 to $10 mil like Ryan Fitzpatrick did to come here & compete w/ Heinicke to be our starter in 2021.

Roullier was a 6th round pick. Still, it is true we can find another center in the draft or one in FA. Still, I’d rather him take a pay cut to stay & compete w/ the rookie we draft. There are some good centers in this years draft who will probably go in round 3, and I wouldn’t mind drafting one of them.

So, I knew someone was going to undervalue Heinicke without really looking at his true value. Thankfully, there is a great site that lays this all out for you. 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/washington-commanders/taylor-heinicke-17249/market-value/

Heinicke wins, which increases his market value. Here is the problem. 

1. We have a 5th round QB sitting on the bench which no one can get a feel for as if he is able to be a franchise QB or not. 

2. Taylor Heinicke is a leader, motivator, and humble character guy who can manage a game and win. Question is, do you pay him $15-19M to be your starter? Do you tag him to avoid the decision and see if Howell can or will be ready?

3. The FA market for QB's is weak and none should be entertained. 

4. The draft class is not as good as it once was so either we reach for a QB, trade up for one, or hope one falls to us. Forget Stroud and Young, but I still don't like OSU and Alabama QB's, And it's likely that Levis is off the board when we pick as well. This leaves Tyler Van Dyke, Kedon Slovic, Anthony Richardson, maybe Max Duggan, or wait a year and go after Caleb Williams. 

5. Or do you go all in on Lamar Jackson? 

IF...IF I am GM wondering about the QB situation...

I am letting Carson Wentz go. I would offer Heinicke a 2 year $30M contract with $12M Guaranteed all for the 2023 season. Go in on Payne and maybe try to trade Sweat. Cut Logan Thomas, Trai Turner, Chase Roullier. Restructure Curtis Samuel and Kendall Fuller. I would like to resign Cole Holcomb.

[lavar703]

So wait, are we talking $19-20M in total or for a season? I’d be shocked if Heinicke got $20M a season. I figured we could bring him back for about 3 years $15M. Maybe at most $10M but even then I’m probably bailing. 

[MKnight82]

7 hours ago, lavar703 said:

So wait, are we talking $19-20M in total or for a season? I’d be shocked if Heinicke got $20M a season. I figured we could bring him back for about 3 years $15M. Maybe at most $10M but even then I’m probably bailing. 

I was thinking $12 mil per year-ish, 3 year deal with no guaranteed money after year 1. $5 mil per is too low.

Edited December 12, 2022 by MKnight82

[MKnight82]

Why would we trade Sweat?

[MKnight82]

You guys are too hung up on creating cap space just to have cap space.

[lavar703]

2 hours ago, MKnight82 said:

I was thinking $12 mil per year-ish, 3 year deal with no guaranteed money after year 1. $5 mil per is too low.

You really think he’d get more than $5M per? I mean, you have to wonder how he operates outside of this system so I can’t see any other team outbidding us for him.