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GDT - Week 13 - The Bills come to town.


Iron_man
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This week the Bills come to town to do battle with us.

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I'm sure they will be heavily favored. Working in our favor Dion Dawkins offensive tackle, and Von Miller are out for the game. Working in their favor we are without RB Damien Harris, and OT Isaiah Wynn. I feel like we play them pretty hard and this one is decided by less than 7 points. In all of their losses this season they have lost by 3 points or less.

I want us to do a lot of what we did last week offense wise, well not all of it(meaning don't count on Agholor in clutch moments). On the defensive side of the ball hopefully the pass rush can get Allen to make some mistakes. I also want us to use more of our running backs so Stevenson doesn't have to carry us rush wise. Maybe get Bourne more involved too.

If we clean up our mistakes and penalties, I can see us hanging with them and even winning. LFG!

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The Bills will have to lose this game for the Pats to have a chance of winning.

Thoughts

1.  Pats have no chance with Bills front seven, to much speed. Even with Miller out.

2. Pats have no chance against the WRs

3. Allen runs wild.

4. Pats running game won't put points on the board. Mac has to pass to stay with the Bills.

5. Mac will be asked to do to much. Need to pass to keep up.

6. The Pats LBs will be exposed again, to slow. Lack talent.

Also this will be a bad game for Mac. The media and many fans will blame him if the Pats lose, and he has a  bad passing game.   They won't look beyond the numbers.  IMO they will run even if it not working and put Mac in difficult position, asking him to do to much.  Ex 2nd down and (penalty) 20, Fat Matt calls a off tackle dive!!!!  3rd and 12, Mac save us!!!!!!!

Edited by m haynes
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1 hour ago, m haynes said:

The Bills will have to lose this game for the Pats to have a chance of winning.

Thoughts

1.  Pats have no chance with Bills front seven, to much speed. Even with Miller out.

2. Pats have no chance against the WRs

3. Allen runs wild.

4. Pats running game won't put points on the board. Mac has to pass to stay with the Bills.

5. Mac will be asked to do to much. Need to pass to keep up.

6. The Pats LBs will be exposed again, to slow. Lack talent.

Also this will be a bad game for Mac. The media and many fans will blame him if the Pats lose, and he has a  bad passing game.   They won't look beyond the numbers.  IMO they will run even if it not working and put Mac in difficult position, asking him to do to much.  Ex 2nd down and (penalty) 20, Fat Matt calls a off tackle dive!!!!  3rd and 12, Mac save us!!!!!!!

This is the most pessimistic and potentially accurate post I think you've ever made sir.. Your scenario is most likely

 

My Optimistic take would be: 

- Mac could have a good game because the Bills secondary has been decimated all season. This feels like it could be a big Agholor/Thornton game to me.. blown coverages from the Bills can turn into points quickly. Especially if the game plan is lots of Stevenson with the occasional PA Pass to try and get the secondary off guard.

- The Bills have multiple DL injuries / illnesses ... this is the best case scenario on when to play them for the OL to have a chance... especially if Andrews is back

- Marcus Jones could cover McKenzie... but if Myles Bryant is on him man to man... the game is already over .. this would be the perfect game to have Marcus Jones take over for Bryant and secure the slot CB spot for the foreseeable future. 

- Jack Jones aggressiveness could either help win the game or end it early.. Allen believes every throw is a good throw so Jack Jones could jump some routes and get an INT .. or let up a TD. Disguising where Jack Jones will be to hunt for INT's could be huge

- Jon Jones is a better matchup for Diggs than JC Jackson was.. JC would always get torched by Diggs.. 

- Mack Wilson was brought in to prevent Josh Allen from running wild. He plays a spy role and it's up to him to not let 

- Expect to see all the safeties... a lot .. Peppers addition to the secondary could yield fruitful in this game

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33 minutes ago, Crimmage said:

This is the most pessimistic and potentially accurate post I think you've ever made sir.. Your scenario is most likely

Laugh. I know even I was cringing when I wrote it.   I figured I get blasted.  Trust me, I tried to find some positives. I just don't see any, other than Allen's EGO. He wants to destroy the Pats and he will force it.  He gets frustrated and that's his weakness.

40 minutes ago, Crimmage said:

Marcus Jones could cover McKenzie... but if Myles Bryant is on him man to man... the game is already over .. this would be the perfect game to have Marcus Jones take over for Bryant and secure the slot CB spot for the foreseeable future. 

Here's a positive from me.  I love this kids game.  He cover like a blanket, I don't care if he's out jumped as long as he makes it difficult. IMO the out jump is over rated, cover is what matters, make it difficult that all you can ask.

43 minutes ago, Crimmage said:

Mack Wilson was brought in to prevent Josh Allen from running wild. He plays a spy role and it's up to him to not let 

- Expect to see all the safeties... a lot .. Peppers addition to the secondary could yield fruitful in this game

Have to watch Wilson he the key. He has to be mentally smart... sometimes he leave you scratching your head with mental mistakes.

I'm a big Peppers fan. He's a hitter and he fly's to the ball, sometimes a little to aggressive which is not a big deal.  Matter of fact I would have Peppers as the spy. I'm not worried with the Bills rushing games, its all about the pass on all levels. Right in line with Peppers game. Especially covering and HITTING the backs.

 

Last but not least, I'm one of the most positive Pats fan on this board!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!😁👀🤣

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As much as I would love a Garrett Wilson / Chris Olave type WR in the first round.. they can't possibly take anything other than OT, right? Assuming 5 don't go in the top 15. 

 

It's looking more and more like 1st round OT and 4th round OT double dip. They didn't have depth to begin with.. but at this point they are incredibly lucky Trent has been as healthy as he has been. 

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I think this will turn out to be a one score game either way. Allen's elbow has been giving him issues the past couple weeks + our OL is a little banged up so I can see the Bills really wanting to use Allens legs. Won't be shocked to see him rush for 75+ yards tonight especially with how Lamar and Fields used their legs to their advantage when facing the Pats. Besides Allen, I don't see our run game doing much. 

On defense, we are without Von but it's probably the healthiest we've been all season. Jordan Poyer is back, Tre'Davious White is back, Edmunds and Milano are both healthy with Greg Rousseau returning. Our secondary is finally fully healthy minus Micah Hyde. 

I'll go 27-20 Bills just because I can't see them going 0-3 to start the division lol. Wouldn't shock me either way because I don't believe Allen is 100%.

Edited by The BILLievers
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2 hours ago, Crimmage said:

they can't possibly take anything other than OT,

As I mentioned in the past. Don't ever assume the obvious when it comes to the  Pats draft. 

Also, IMO I would not take any of the (see 3 in the 1st)  WR's coming out in the 1st RD.  I have seen Quentin Johnston when it comes to 2023 draft for the Pats. HECK NO !!!!  I do like

Jordan Addison

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1k-mbTkvNwo

Josh Downs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UMvKNMBHVQ4

 

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2 hours ago, m haynes said:

As I mentioned in the past. Don't ever assume the obvious when it comes to the  Pats draft. 

Also, IMO I would not take any of the (see 3 in the 1st)  WR's coming out in the 1st RD.  I have seen Quentin Johnston when it comes to 2023 draft for the Pats. HECK NO !!!!  I do like

Jordan Addison

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1k-mbTkvNwo

Josh Downs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UMvKNMBHVQ4

 

I agree with you on the WR's. The first round guys don't have that elite feeling like the last couple years. Addison I worry is too small .. he's even thinner than Thornton I believe .. Downs is awesome, but I don't think BB spends a 1st/early 2nd on a slot guy given all of his success finding guys late.

 

The WR that I'm curious about is Jaxon Smith-Njigba.. he's not as fast as the other Ohio State guys but he makes plays. He is a gamble.. but missing all season could drop him into the 2nd round. I 100% take that risk in the 2nd.. he would be a steal in that 32-40 range ( Similar to Christian Watson last year who I wanted the Patriots to trade up for). Similar injury concerns to Watson (hamstring I believe) but worth the risk if you can get a #1 guy in the 2nd round. 

 

The unfortunate thing is even if they have cap space.. no WR's are available to use it on. So you're either going to need to make a trade or get lucky in the draft. Double dipping in the draft isn't out of the question either given that the entire WR room is going to be on the last year of their deal. It's a shame no Brown/Diggs are available for trade either.. so the draft is the only way to get lucky. Trade back and give yourself more chances unless you've got an elite guy on the board. The guy that people are still sleeping on is AT Perry .. if he makes it to day 3 teams are crazy. He is going to be a steal imo. 

 

Thornton has played a bit in the slot to help him avoid press coverage.. I wonder if they end up seeing him in that role more moving forward? You could probably push Meyers to more of a Z role and move him to the slot on 3rd downs when they need him to play safety blanket? 

X - Davante Parker / AT Perry / Thornton

Slot - Thornton / Meyers

Z - Meyers / Bourne

It's not otherworldly by any means ... but it gets Mac the speed slot he was used to having at Alabama, while keeping Meyers as a reliable target and gives you a Parker replacement at the X given that he is on the last year of his deal. 

 

I think it's very similar to last year .. they needed a starting LG, so they drafted one in the first.. I could see them trading back from ~18 to 25-30 and taking someone like Anton Harrison/ Dawand Jones. The top 3 OT will be gone in the top 15 picks I would guess .. long way to go but I have a feeling we won't see value in the 16-25 range at OT. You'll be picking a 2nd round guy way too early. Most people are saying Dawand Jones in the mid to late 2nd round but I think he's going to end up testing really well and ending up in the 25-35 range. He's the perfect guy to replace Trent at LT ( with a year of RT while Trent is still here). Unless they get starting OT in free agency ( $$$), they need to draft someone top 50 picks or it's going to be another long season.. I would even say 2 guys in the top 125 is likely. 

 

 

Edited by Crimmage
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2 hours ago, Crimmage said:

 Addison I worry is too small .

I guessing your thinking old time football. I learned my lesson last year.  I don't care if he's 2ft tall. He has 4.3 speed. He is 6' 175.   I look at the Dolphins They could care less how big they are when the put up 100 yards er game. Think touch football. Most players hand tackle  in today's NFL. I gave up on Chris Olave, Jahan Dotson last year draft...never again.

2 hours ago, Crimmage said:

AT Perry

Strictly a X WR.  Concern with quickness. Thornton at X, we need a slot guy or over the middle to complement Thornton.

2 hours ago, Crimmage said:

Thornton has played a bit in the slot to help him avoid press coverage.. I wonder if they end up seeing him in that role more moving forward?

I sure hope not. Put him in motion, that cancelled press.  See Dolphins.  Fat Matt Thornton killer!!!!

2 hours ago, Crimmage said:

they needed a starting LG, so they drafted one in the first..

Did they really?   They completely blew that pick and the OG position. Complete disaster. Still burning. We all know the events. I'll just say Karris, for another 10 bucks!!!! A frigging nothing special 1st RD (middle aged) guard. Give me a frigging break.  😡😡😡

Edited by m haynes
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