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2023 NFL Draft


Crimmage

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A bigger, stronger.. maybe even faster James Cook... yes please. Shame that Mcintosh and Jahmyr Gibbs will probably get drafted in the 2nd round. 

This draft is pretty stacked on both pass catching RB's and slot guys. The knock on most of them though.. is that they are tiny. Spears for instant is 5'10 190.. going to be hard to hold up in pass protection at that size. 

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6 hours ago, Crimmage said:

 

A bigger, stronger.. maybe even faster James Cook... yes please. Shame that Mcintosh and Jahmyr Gibbs will probably get drafted in the 2nd round. 

This draft is pretty stacked on both pass catching RB's and slot guys. The knock on most of them though.. is that they are tiny. Spears for instant is 5'10 190.. going to be hard to hold up in pass protection at that size. 

 

6 hours ago, Crimmage said:

 

A bigger, stronger.. maybe even faster James Cook... yes please. Shame that Mcintosh and Jahmyr Gibbs will probably get drafted in the 2nd round. 

This draft is pretty stacked on both pass catching RB's and slot guys. The knock on most of them though.. is that they are tiny. Spears for instant is 5'10 190.. going to be hard to hold up in pass protection at that size. 

Lets hope he puts on 10LBS  James white 5'9 205  KF was his size as well

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1 hour ago, 1ForTheThumb said:

I feel like RB is the least of this teams concerns tbh. We have Rhamondre, Strong + Harris have started to flash, and you could probably add cheap depth in FA. The FA RB class is loaded.

Throw as many picks at pass catcher and OL as possible, imo.

RB this year is similar to WR last few drafts. Lots of really great players. I agree that they probably don't need to draft one at all ... but you never know with BB .. especially if you can find someone who could be the next Alvin Kamara .. he will see that as fixing the receiver position as well. I could see throwing a 4th round pick at someone but I'm not convinced it's necessary. Pierre Strong is good and Montgomery should be back next year. 

 

OL is tough because it's not only an immediate need but a sneaky next year need too 

- LT and RT are immediate needs, you can get away with only drafting one high though because Trent Brown is here for one more year

- RG is a potential need with Onwenu on the last year of his deal ( depends on what they think of Hines) 

- C is a sneaky need.. David Andrews is going to be 31 to start next year.. I'd expect a late your Center too (depends on what they think of Russey)

 

I also had some really interesting conversation with someone about a double dip at WR too. If you trade down in the 1st it would give you enough draft picks to move around day 2 and grab two impact WR's. His believe was taking a LB in the second then trading up twice to grab two WR's in the 2nd/3rd rounds.

 

The Scenario would be: (Players were his names not mine)

1st round trade back and acquire an extra 3rd round pick 

1st round -> LT (Anton Harrison)

2nd round (keep pick where it was) -> LB (Noah Sewell) 

3rd round Carolina pick, trade a 4th to move up into the back half of the 2nd round -> WR (Jalin Hyatt) 

3rd round pick received from trading back -> WR (Zay Flowers)

4th round pick from Rams-> CB (Eli Ricks)

4th round comp pick ->  RT / FS / CB / RB /etc. 

This still leaves them with something like 3- 4 more day 3 picks

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6 hours ago, 1ForTheThumb said:

RB is the least of this teams concerns tbh.

This in general frustrate me when it comes to the draft. Team that go for needs and by pass quality players.  Take this draft I see one OT in the 1st, no WR in the 1st but teams will take them.  The talent in the 1st this year is defense. Taking offense is like someone reaching for a OG.... oh wait, my bad!!!

I would have in mind what I need but I would not pass on a RB or any other position if the talent out ways need. Also You can't count of just 3 RBs, to many injuries happen. Also I don't care if I have to get rid of lets say Harris or Strong, if I can draft Kenny McIntosh.

He is a RB I really like he can do all three phases and he played pro college ball !!!

IMO he is one of the most underrated RB in this draft.

 

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I agree that blindly picking for need is dumb.. but to an extent you have to if players are at similar talent levels. For instance, from what I have read.. the Patriots work off a tiered, need draft model. Let's say you have 6 tiers in a draft

  • Generational Talent
  • Potential All Pro 
  • Potential Pro Bowler
  • Potential Starter
  • Rotational Player
  • Practice Squad

Those tiers would then be doubled for players with a concern about them (Injury / character / work ethic / etc.). Then the team has their needs which they want to focus on. 

For instance, last year in the second round.. it was reported a lot that the Patriots loved Pickens during the combine. They ended up taking Thornton instead, I'm going to make the assumption there that they felt they were similarly tiered WR's, WR was a need, and Thornton didn't have character/injury concerns so they took him over Pickens. 

 

The issue the Patriots have is I don't think they believe in "positional value". They go, here is our highest tier of players available.. we have 5 players in that tier.. this is our highest need.. take that guy. 

Now let's say those 5 guys are: 

  • LG, Cole Strange
  • Edge, George Karlaftis
  • FS, Daxton Hill 
  • FS, Lewis Cine
  • WR, Christian Watson 

 

My favorite part of this example is it's exactly what happened last year.. I totally believe the Patriots loved all those guys.. BUT they literally didn't have a LG on the roster.. so they said LG is our biggest need, take that guy. They aren't taking into account positional value at all.. that a position is going to have a lower hit rate later in the draft or is more expensive in free agency and you'd want 5 years of cheaper contract, etc. I'm fine with their tier system... but it just needs 1 more level.. a ranking of the positions.

 

To go back to the RB argument.. if the player is special enough you can build your offense around them.. you don't need to get rid of anyone. Stevenson / Strong / McIntosh could all be on the field at the same time for packages. 1 in the slot and 2 in the backfield .. you'd basically be building your offense around using multiple RB's at a time but given how the team focuses so much on the short passing game I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing. You'd just need an OC who is going to be creative enough to make it work.. and the guys would need to be comfortable getting split out wide sometimes. If McIntosh is there in the 3rd, I have a hard time imagining many players being on a higher tier than him talent wise. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Crimmage said:

I agree that blindly picking for need is dumb.. but to an extent you have to if players are at similar talent levels. For instance, from what I have read.. the Patriots work off a tiered, need draft model. Let's say you have 6 tiers in a draft

  • Generational Talent
  • Potential All Pro 
  • Potential Pro Bowler
  • Potential Starter
  • Rotational Player
  • Practice Squad

Those tiers would then be doubled for players with a concern about them (Injury / character / work ethic / etc.). Then the team has their needs which they want to focus on. 

For instance, last year in the second round.. it was reported a lot that the Patriots loved Pickens during the combine. They ended up taking Thornton instead, I'm going to make the assumption there that they felt they were similarly tiered WR's, WR was a need, and Thornton didn't have character/injury concerns so they took him over Pickens. 

 

The issue the Patriots have is I don't think they believe in "positional value". They go, here is our highest tier of players available.. we have 5 players in that tier.. this is our highest need.. take that guy. 

Now let's say those 5 guys are: 

  • LG, Cole Strange
  • Edge, George Karlaftis
  • FS, Daxton Hill 
  • FS, Lewis Cine
  • WR, Christian Watson 

 

My favorite part of this example is it's exactly what happened last year.. I totally believe the Patriots loved all those guys.. BUT they literally didn't have a LG on the roster.. so they said LG is our biggest need, take that guy. They aren't taking into account positional value at all.. that a position is going to have a lower hit rate later in the draft or is more expensive in free agency and you'd want 5 years of cheaper contract, etc. I'm fine with their tier system... but it just needs 1 more level.. a ranking of the positions.

 

To go back to the RB argument.. if the player is special enough you can build your offense around them.. you don't need to get rid of anyone. Stevenson / Strong / McIntosh could all be on the field at the same time for packages. 1 in the slot and 2 in the backfield .. you'd basically be building your offense around using multiple RB's at a time but given how the team focuses so much on the short passing game I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing. You'd just need an OC who is going to be creative enough to make it work.. and the guys would need to be comfortable getting split out wide sometimes. If McIntosh is there in the 3rd, I have a hard time imagining many players being on a higher tier than him talent wise. 

 

 

I understand the concept however its the value that I question or who evaluating the players.  IMO that the major flaw.  I hope the Pats give Groh more power concerning the draft.  BB is the weak link to the concept.  Taking your example,  Cole Strange should not be in that group and that's the problem. BB still had the power to go against the draft concept you described and has done so over the years with disastrous results. 

There are countless stories on his draft failures and how many of his past scouts complained and quit based on him not following the program. 

I hope all power to the draft goes to Groh after this season. Kraft need to lay down the law or show him the door.

I still remember the story how BB went against the scouts recommendation  and took Maroney. 

I have to go back to  LG, Cole Strange. This is all BB blowing up the whole concept.

Quote

tiers would then be doubled for players with a concern about them

Your comment here should of moved him down even farther.

He not as talented as the players in that group or any group in the 1st RD, plus he's from small school and didn't dominate , age and lacks strength. He has zero upside when it comes to the physical part of the game.

Last note   I would keep an eye on Groh as well if he goes all stats and numbers, he goes as well.

 

 

 

 

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8 hours ago, 1ForTheThumb said:

Trent Brown cannot be relied upon for another year. I think adding multiple tackles at a minimum is a must.

He's in an interesting spot.. he's very cheap for a starter .. but probably too expensive to be a backup. You either have to start him or cut him. 

1) This has been a healthy year for him wish is huge

2) He has more penalties than anyone in the league 

3) He is in the top 5 LT's left without help in the league... when he isn't making mental errors he's an above average starter. I'm taking out those 2 weeks when all he did was throw himself at defenders because he was apparently very sick and only played because they had nobody else. 

 

When I read those thoughts, I think coaching. Another area where MattyP has failed them.. get another OL coach in here and I think he will be more disciplined. My plan would be: 

- Draft a LT in the top 2 rounds of the draft.. have him compete with Trent Brown for the job. If he beats out Trent, great.. you can keep him as depth for the year or trade / cut him. The most likely scenario is Trent starts the season as the LT and either gets surpassed / injured and the rookie takes over

- Sign a free agent RT, plug and play starter that you can count on. If you're unable to do this I would probably start Trent Brown at LT, put the rookie at RT then have him go to LT year 2. I'd also draft a RT on day 3 to compete with Stueber for that 3rd OT role. 

 

This draft is looking pretty deep at OT which is great for the Patriots. They should be able to get a franchise LT the back half of the first round.

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CB is looking DEEP too. 

 

Eli Ricks was expected to be a 1st round pick last year.. he's declaring early and could end up going 3rd-4th round because he didn't have a great season. He was injured and benched a few times.. but the talent is there. Most teams I wouldn't mess with him but given how great the Patriots are with DB's .. I'm taking him in with one of those 4th round picks 100 times out of 100. He is 6'2 which is exactly what this secondary needs right now. 

 

Double dipping at CB again would be a very smart move ( especially if Jon Jones leaves) 

 

To'o To'o had a rough season.. but a lot of Alabama did defensively. 

 

I'll be honest, I'd be all in on going Alabama gambles on early day 3 to hope that they can get back to form with a the Patriots defensive coaches. 

Jordan Battle / Eli Ricks / Henry To'o To'o back to back to back would be big boom or bust guys ( Ricks has #1 CB potential with the Patriots staff coaching him). 

Edited by Crimmage
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12 hours ago, Crimmage said:

He's in an interesting spot.. he's very cheap for a starter .. but probably too expensive to be a backup. You either have to start him or cut him. 

1) This has been a healthy year for him wish is huge

2) He has more penalties than anyone in the league 

3) He is in the top 5 LT's left without help in the league... when he isn't making mental errors he's an above average starter. I'm taking out those 2 weeks when all he did was throw himself at defenders because he was apparently very sick and only played because they had nobody else. 

 

When I read those thoughts, I think coaching. Another area where MattyP has failed them.. get another OL coach in here and I think he will be more disciplined. My plan would be: 

- Draft a LT in the top 2 rounds of the draft.. have him compete with Trent Brown for the job. If he beats out Trent, great.. you can keep him as depth for the year or trade / cut him. The most likely scenario is Trent starts the season as the LT and either gets surpassed / injured and the rookie takes over

- Sign a free agent RT, plug and play starter that you can count on. If you're unable to do this I would probably start Trent Brown at LT, put the rookie at RT then have him go to LT year 2. I'd also draft a RT on day 3 to compete with Stueber for that 3rd OT role. 

 

This draft is looking pretty deep at OT which is great for the Patriots. They should be able to get a franchise LT the back half of the first round.

I look at this different.  Pure guess on my part... what would BB do for next year.

1. Draft defense, why, we are all screaming for offense.

2.  BB will move Brown back to RT. Why based on reports he prefers the right side, plus I read he's paid RT money.

3. He will bring in a OL coach however it will be someone from BB circle of friends, which will be a disappointment. Remember the guy that replaced Scar the 1st time,            disaster.  BB 1st priority should be, can he coach.  This is a major problem with BB.  See offense and ST, horrible.

12 hours ago, Crimmage said:

This draft is looking pretty deep at OT which is great for the Patriots. They should be able to get a franchise LT the back half of the first round.

I'm not trilled at all with a 1st RD LT. I have looked and they all need time to develop. The only one that could start( low 1st RD) is Broderick Jones, however IMO he not good (pass) enough to play LT in the NFL. 

Paris Johnson Jr. He's what I call a tip over LT, big and tall but his base and footwork

The only other LT I would consider is Duncan however he's a major risk. He's has everything to dominate however he's raw. Major factor,  his mental makeup. He's a bust if he has Zach Wilson/Kenny Sims syndrome!!!

The OT is Cody Mauch. My problem is he going to pan out in the NFL. I have read and looked but its impossible to get a handle on him. The predraft stuff will be a major help. As of now he's to much of a gamble.

The others in the draft, please. No thanks.

 

 

13 hours ago, Crimmage said:

Sign a free agent RT, plug and play starter that you can count on. If you're unable to do this I would probably start Trent Brown at doesn't impress at the next level.

I agree this is the best option.  There is only one sure 1st day starter and if we pick 16 I hope he drops to the Pats. Peter Skoronski. ( I still would look at trades).

Side note.  Pete Skoronski  doesn't pan out as a starter LT, you can move him to OG and move Strange to center. There's no doubt he would be a dominate guard in the NFL. Plus he could backup at OT if needed. 

Finally  here are the players I call "what the fig" or "out of left field" players BB will end up taking.

1.  Kelee Ringo --  The big CB crap.  A bust at CB, covered by Bulldogs front seven.

2. Andre Carter II ----  trade down 1st or up 2nd!!!!!

 

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On 1/5/2023 at 7:58 AM, m haynes said:

I look at this different.  Pure guess on my part... what would BB do for next year.

1. Draft defense, why, we are all screaming for offense.

Are you referring to the first round or in general mainly focusing on the defense? Sometimes you can go into the draft wanting some things but it just doesn't fall that way.. if you find some elite players on defense i'm all for it. 

 

For instance, If you've got an elite DE in the first, it's tough to say no to that.. same with an elite LB /DB in the 2nd. 

On 1/5/2023 at 7:58 AM, m haynes said:

2.  BB will move Brown back to RT. Why based on reports he prefers the right side, plus I read he's paid RT money.

This is possible too, I think this will also depend on how Stueber has practiced these last 3 weeks. He is still on NFI but is allowed 21 days of practice time without counting as on the roster... they are basically using these 21 days at the end of the season to see what they have in him. I'm not sure what you thought of him coming out but I thought he could be a decent starting RT. IF the Patriots agree, putting Trent at RT to start the season with Stueber battling for his job seems like a good option.. I would still draft another guy day 3 to compete and bring back McDermett who has looking good enough to be backup RT. 

This would certainly mean you need a starting caliber LT to start day 1 though. I'm not sure how many LT's in this draft I would trust to do that.. 

On 1/5/2023 at 7:58 AM, m haynes said:

3. He will bring in a OL coach however it will be someone from BB circle of friends, which will be a disappointment. Remember the guy that replaced Scar the 1st time,            disaster.  BB 1st priority should be, can he coach.  This is a major problem with BB.  See offense and ST, horrible.

I remember 2 years ago when they had a good OL, it was 2 guys.. one didn't come back because of COVID restrictions and I think is coaching locally somewhere. I would call that guy up.. he did well and knows what he is doing.. pair him with Billy Yates and they would probably be good. The OL has been a bit better lately, so it's possibly that Billy Yates has been learning on the job and could be much better next season. 

On 1/5/2023 at 7:58 AM, m haynes said:

I'm not trilled at all with a 1st RD LT. I have looked and they all need time to develop. The only one that could start( low 1st RD) is Broderick Jones, however IMO he not good (pass) enough to play LT in the NFL. 

Paris Johnson Jr. He's what I call a tip over LT, big and tall but his base and footwork

The only other LT I would consider is Duncan however he's a major risk. He's has everything to dominate however he's raw. Major factor,  his mental makeup. He's a bust if he has Zach Wilson/Kenny Sims syndrome!!!

The OT is Cody Mauch. My problem is he going to pan out in the NFL. I have read and looked but its impossible to get a handle on him. The predraft stuff will be a major help. As of now he's to much of a gamble.

The others in the draft, please. No thanks.

I agree it is a gamble, which is why I believe they will draft someone and keep Trent at LT for the year. If the rookie beats him out, great.. if he doesn't .. that's a redshirt year. It's also possible that they let the rookie start at RT to ease them into the NFL.. but who knows if they want to move the kid all around the line or not. 

 

Regarding a rookie being ready to play day 1... no rookie is, you're going to need to expect to provide them help for at minimum the first half of the season if not all of it. Look at the LT's that were drafted top 10 this past year.. none of them are world beaters yet. It's insanely hard to acclimate from college to NFL LT imo. I do believe with a proper OL coach you've got a lot of guys with potential though: 

  • Skoronski goes top 10 imo top 15 at worse.. and I don't see BB trading up for him
  • I like Jones but he isn't an elite athlete.. I feel like they may be better off with someone later. He also only played 1 year i believe so it's not like he is the most experienced 
  • Mauch has been one of my favorites for awhile.. he reminds me of Penning from last year.. a mauler but without the penalties .. in the 2nd round he's great value imo with good upside. I think he needs to put some muscle on though 6'6 is how I want my LT.. no more Wynn types. 
  • Duncan is 6'6 320.. and athletic.. I 100% take the risk.. I've seen him projected anywhere from late 1st to 4th.. you get him in that 30-50 range and i'm all for it
  • Blake Freeland is 6'8 300 .. needs to add some weight but he's another moldable guy that should go in the top 2 rounds

 

If they fall in love with a defensive player, i'm cool with that.. but I think you absolutely have to take a LT in the top 2 rounds.

On 1/5/2023 at 7:58 AM, m haynes said:

1.  Kelee Ringo --  The big CB crap.  A bust at CB, covered by Bulldogs front seven.

No thank you, maybe as a safety but not a corner.. im not taking any CB in the first in this round. I'd rather double dip in the 3rd/4th than spend an early pick on a corner. 

On 1/5/2023 at 7:58 AM, m haynes said:

2. Andre Carter II ----  trade down 1st or up 2nd!!!!!

Idk anything about him.. but he's Army so BB may fall in love

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21 hours ago, Crimmage said:

first round or in general mainly focusing on the defense?

Being sarcastic based on BB draft history of doing opposite  what everyone assumed he would do in the draft. Based on this draft. BB should IMO do 1 or 2 things. Take a CB at 16 or trade down.  The only way that changes is if a defensive players falls. Also just so we're clear. That what I think BB will do. I would trade up or down. I don't see any value at 16 based on the current mocks.

ADDED  This is not what I would do. I'm not touching a CB in the 1st. My comment is what he will do or should do based on his draft history or draft system.  You mention that earlier the category system. 

21 hours ago, Crimmage said:

I'm not sure what you thought of him coming out but I thought he could be a decent starting RT. IF the Patriots agree, putting Trent at RT to start the season with Stueber battling for his job seems like a good option.. I would still draft another guy day 3 to compete and bring back McDermett who has looking good enough to be backup RT. 

This would certainly mean you need a starting caliber LT to start day 1 though. I'm not sure how many LT's in this draft I would trust to do that.. 

I loved all the back end picks in this draft. Especially Hines and Harris. Stueber was also on my list of players.  Also when all said and done Hines will be the best value at OG in this draft.  A steal. That's if his mind's right,  something " mockers " have no clue on other than what is said.  EX Zach Wilson and Kyler Murray there was very little saying they were dogs coming out. MAJOR RED FLAG for me.

21 hours ago, Crimmage said:

Regarding a rookie being ready to play day 1... no rookie is, you're going to need to expect to provide them help for at minimum the first half of the season if not all of it. Look at the LT's that were drafted top 10 this past year..

I assume your talking LTs if not Stange started day one also I agree on LT to a point. I'm not sure but didn't Nate Solder and Light ( " Light was drafted in the second round  He started 12 of 14 games played during his rookie season in 2001 day one." ) At 16 its a hit or miss starting however higher they should have a pretty good chance to start. EX Slater and Sewell. If they don't IMO its a bad draft pick. Trade down, I think its a major mistake saying he has tremendous upside. Just say, he couldn't dominate in college and pray it changes in the pros. One more point. BB leans more to sitting draft picks which  I could talk about my feeling on that matter,but it would be to long and boring.  Lets say I'm not a fan of his drafting or projecting players at the next level. you know the, " what the heck 2nd rd- ers "

21 hours ago, Crimmage said:

Mauch has been one of my favorites for awhile.. he reminds me of Penning from last year.. a mauler but without the penalties .. in the 2nd round he's great value imo with good upside.

The way I pick players he would be much lower. I hate high pick on potential when you can go to the big school with a battle tested player. Lets call it hedging your bets. That's one of the major reason I love the Hines a Stueber picks.

Also I don't like what I see to draft him that high. I'm not a fan of a bench year for a high draft pick. You only have 4 years than you (possible) lose him. IMO he wouldn't see the field his 1st year.

This is a comment/ observation based on mocks. I'm not debating players here, its just example to explain my comment. Players I would take with HIGH  in the 2nd rd, over Mauch (small school)

 Zay Flowers,  Cedric Tillman, Brandon Joseph,  Jordan Battle,  Dalton Kincaid,  Mazi Smith

Again I'm not saying I would pick any of these players that's not my point,  however I'm pretty sure they will play (will less risk) at the next level.  Especially post TB, Yrs cant afford to risk high picks. Especially with BB track record.

Example  I would never pick Dugger over Winfield, who were both on the board in that draft and I would never take Easly  based on risk factor.

ADDED

Looking  back at Easly pick. At the time I look at it as a Pats Homer!!! I used everything excuse to my friends to justify the STEAL OF THE DRAFT.  I had to laugh now, what the heck was I thinking.

Who the heck uses a 1st on a complete risk who's history is screaming run!!!!!!!  Never again.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by m haynes
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7 minutes ago, m haynes said:

Being sarcastic based on BB draft history of doing opposite  what everyone assumed he would do in the draft. Based on this draft. BB should IMO do 1 or 2 things. Take a CB at 16 or trade down.  The only way that changes is if a defensive players falls. Also just so we're clear. That what I think BB will do. I would trade up or down. I don't see any value at 16 based on the current mocks.

ADDED  This is not what I would do. I'm not touching a CB in the 1st. My comment is what he will do or should do based on his draft history or draft system.  You mention that earlier the category system. 

Agreed, 100% .. I would double dip at CB and take 1 in 3rd and 1 in 4th. You can get a high potential guy there and not need to take someone in the first. This is of course assuming 10+ CB's don't get taken in the 2nd because of how good this draft is for CB's. 

7 minutes ago, m haynes said:

I loved all the back end picks in this draft. Especially Hines and Harris. Stueber was also on my list of players.  Also when all said and done Hines will be the best value at OG in this draft.  A steal. That's if his minds right something " mockers " have no clue on other than what is said.  EX Zach Wilson and Kyler Murray there was very little saying they were dogs coming out. MAJOR RED FLAG for me.

LOVE Hines too coming out, think he played well in the preseason. If for some dumb reason they don't resign Onwenu ( or even trade him) I think Hines could step in and play RG just fine. 

7 minutes ago, m haynes said:

This is a comment/ observation based on mocks. I'm not debating players here, its just example to explain my comment. Players I would take with HIGH  in the 2nd rd, over Mauch (small school)

I wouldn't pick Mauch in the 1st, and don't believe they would either.. unless they panic like last season because their is a run on LT. If 3 OG didn't get taken in 5 picks in the teens they never would have taken Strange that high. 

Mauch to me is a guy you take in the late 2nd/early 3rd .. but of course it's tough to guess if teams are going to go on a run

7 minutes ago, m haynes said:

 Zay Flowers,  Cedric Tillman, Brandon Joseph,  Jordan Battle,  Dalton Kincaid,  Mazi Smith

Again I'm not saying I would pick any of these players that's not my point,  however I'm pretty sure they will play (will less risk) at the next level.  Especially post TB, Yrs cant afford to risk high picks. Especially with BB track record.

Example  I would never pick Dugger over Winfield, who were both on the board in that draft and I would never take Easly  based on risk factor.

The risk factor is a good thought.. im not sure how I feel about it. When I think low risk I think high floor / low ceiling. If you're a team that's going to have an average QB you've got to hate elite guys around him to be a super bowl contender.. I think you need to take some risks to get there. Historically they take risks in the top 2 rounds then try to get gems of guys with high floors on day 3. Those day 3 guys have been good.. but they just need to hit on some of these high ceiling guys. 


Side note: I could 100% see them falling in love with Cedric Tillman.. he's not an overly exciting player but seems like someone who would consistently be reliable.. boring and reliable. 

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