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Week 14: San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers


J-ALL-DAY

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Great win last week but we are now down to a 3rd string QB, who damn near went undrafted....So yeah lol...Nonetheless, five game win streak and on to Tampa Bay.......

Offensively, this is going to be a grind and a very tough game for Purdy. The run game is not going to be very effective and the Bucs will use timely blitzes to throw Purdy off rhythm. This is another game where Deebo and CMC are going to have to make a bunch of plays themselves at the LOS. Shanny was able to get Purdy out of the pocket with some relative success against the Dolphins and I expect a heavy dose of that this game as well. The run game will need to be a factor in some regard and we can't get one dimensional. Dalton was able to get some stuff going against the Bucs down the field on the sidelines but I don't think Purdy has the arm to be attempting those passes against this defense. I would be very surprised if we score more than 17-20 points.

Defensively, we know the Bucs are going to have Brady drop back and attempt 45+ passes. The run game was actually solid against the Saints last night but I would be surprised if they run the ball more than 15 times against us. Brady does love throwing to the backs quite a bit as both backs had six catches yesterday. So it goes without saying Greenlaw and the backers will need to key in on that. Even though the Bucs offense has been subpar all season, I am still worried about their WRs. They will find ways to attack down the field and Evans is going to have a big advantage against Lenoir if that is who he is matched up with. Our safeties allowed two big plays on Sunday and if they allow even one against Tampa, that may be the game right there. We need to shut that down and force the Bucs to go on long drives where they are prone to making some mistakes. Brady only got sacked once last night on 55 drop backs against a very good DL as we saw up close a few weeks ago. Our pass rush is a lot of times Bosa or bust so that's going to need to change or else this defense is going to be in bit of trouble. Armstead flashed but should be better with the more time he gets and I do expect him to crash the pocket and force Brady into errand throws. Bosa will still find a way to get two sacks! 

I'm not going to lie, this match up worries me a lot, especially with Purdy at QB. I'm just banking on our defense being elite once again and the Bucs having to travel across the country on a short week to make the difference. This game is going to be ugly and a grind.

SF 17

TB 13

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I think it was Tim Kawakami who made this point. That Purdy can probably emulate the basic "catch and release" throws that Jimmy does well. Get the snap, stand back, and throw a quick pass. Purdy does have a quick release.

There will be a lot of those, and if our gameplans are on point & the YAC guys do their thing, we can be alright. Especially with the run game, defense, and special teams all clicking

Question is, can Purdy can make the off schedule throws, or not fold under pressure? If he can avoid the game killing turnovers like Mullens, we can win any game on our schedule. He did that well against the Dolphins and will have to keep doing it.

Very interested to see how the Bucs play Purdy. Will they mainly blitz him, or rush 4 & sit back in zone and try to confuse him?

If we had Jimmy G i think this is a double-digit win. WIth Purdy i think its a closer game. I'll say 23-17 W

Edited by 49ersfan
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I was watching the condensed game last night and three plays stuck out to me.  Two of them were classic stretch running plays with Mason.  Like the Broncos ran, then the Colts a little later.  It looked pretty cool with Mason's one cut and go ability, then you have McC as the speedy change of pace, I think it is going to be a fun new play package this week.  The other was a nice sprint right option to kittle on either 3rd or 4th and 1.  I was impressed Shanahan called a pass there, and it was executed well.  I think we will see more bootleg play action concepts this week as well.

The one thing I really think Purdy needs to work on is stepping up in the pocket.  It's understandable week 1 that he wouldn't have a lot of comfort with pocket movement, but I hope it gets a little better each week, and I think it will.

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I am not worried about this game in the slightest. Tampa has a good D, it isn't anything like it has been in the past. Much of that may be due to the offense and its overall lack of efficiency. Tampa will throw pressure at Purdy. He showed he can handle it. I would expect Shanahan to attempt to run the ball consistently, but if the run game doesn't get going he needs to pivot and beat Tom at his own game by using the backs and WR screens.

The Buccs offense is abysmal. They have not been able to make any big plays down the field and the O Line is holding on by a thread despite a good performance last night. Tom is still Tom and when given time he can be surgical. LBs need to play at the level they have been, tackling is going to be key and get pressure on Brady because he folds like a cheap lawn chair when he sees pressure. I jut don't see a scenario where the offense for TB gets going against this defense if the defense plays sound and fast.

Purdy needs to be efficient on 3rd down and not turn the ball over.

Niners win 23-6

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Yeah, I'm worried we could see a sort of 2020 Eagles game this week. I like a lot of what Purdy can do. He tends to be pretty willing to thread the middle of the field and will pound the short routes to the outside when teams aren't sitting on them. He can create a bit off script and needs to sometimes when he doesn't pull the trigger fast enough. But his ballhandling is pretty hilariously loose and he doesn't have a great feel for the pocket. I personally felt he got super lucky not to have a disastrous play happen a couple of times on Sunday and he's had a couple of really terrible ballhandling moments in preseason. I think that's going to lead to some Nick Mullens days where a couple of inexplicably bad turnovers happen. The Bucs can play some defense. They'll take advantage if he isn't careful. 

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This is hard.

I don't think the Bucs are a good team, but I still think I trust Brady more to make a couple of necessary plays against this defense than I do Purdy against that bucs defense. 

But that Tampa team is so not good on offense. I mean, they were handled by Carolina.

So I really can't decide other than this is going to be an ugly game

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His argument is so weird lol. And Parsons is mainly a DE at this point and only has 8 less pass rush attempts than Bosa. Parsons is averaging 5 coverage snaps a game. His main argument IS the sacks and pressures he gets rushing the passer. Getting a fumble TD is good and all but that's not enough to make a difference in the pass rushing stats. 

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9 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

His argument is so weird lol. And Parsons is mainly a DE at this point and only has 8 less pass rush attempts than Bosa. Parsons is averaging 5 coverage snaps a game. His main argument IS the sacks and pressures he gets rushing the passer. Getting a fumble TD is good and all but that's not enough to make a difference in the pass rushing stats. 

No sir, you have to understand... He's seen two plays

 

 

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40 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

His argument is so weird lol. And Parsons is mainly a DE at this point and only has 8 less pass rush attempts than Bosa. Parsons is averaging 5 coverage snaps a game. His main argument IS the sacks and pressures he gets rushing the passer. Getting a fumble TD is good and all but that's not enough to make a difference in the pass rushing stats. 

It's weird to me that he uses the idea that he plays with :greater effort" as well. It isn't a measurable thing. It's strictly his opinion. So mine is that Bosa plays with "greater effort"......now where does that leave us? Acho is kind of lame these days. HE needed Wiley to keep him accountable for a lot of his inordinate takes. 

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On Twitter it legitimately feels like people are more comfortable and have higher expectations starting Brock Purdy right now than they were starting Trey Lance at the start of the season lol 

I'm guessing it's a brave face in an unchangeable situation?  It's really surprising how much faith people have that not much changes here between Jimmy and Brock 

Hope they are right. If he can be mullens without the ints, I think the team could be competent 

 

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17 minutes ago, Forge said:

On Twitter it legitimately feels like people are more comfortable and have higher expectations starting Brock Purdy right now than they were starting Trey Lance at the start of the season lol 

I'm guessing it's a brave face in an unchangeable situation?  It's really surprising how much faith people have that not much changes here between Jimmy and Brock 

Hope they are right. If he can be mullens without the ints, I think the team could be competent 

 

I mean, if he's Mullens with less ints, he's basically Jimmy G. I just think Purdy'll turn the ball over too much. Not too much to win like 2 out of 5 down the stretch, but too much to beat decent teams regularly. I would be delighted to be wrong.

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9 minutes ago, Forge said:

On Twitter it legitimately feels like people are more comfortable and have higher expectations starting Brock Purdy right now than they were starting Trey Lance at the start of the season lol 

I'm guessing it's a brave face in an unchangeable situation?  It's really surprising how much faith people have that but much changes here. 

Hope they are right

 

Recency bias is likely part of it. People want to believe and Purdy did enough to make them believe. It's not a favorable situation. I do think Purdy can manage the game, but it just got almost impossible to finish what they were starting this season. The defense is definitely good enough, but at some point in a run the offense is going to have to win it and that is where the problem lies. I still believe that Lance has a shot, but I also believe the team has been steadfast in disclosing what they know in regards to a potential return. Shanahan's comments to Kawakami were a little different then his response to Cohn post game.

If Lance is healthy he absolutely gives the team a better shot than Purdy. He  ay lack the efficiency, but the big play ability changes everything.

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9 minutes ago, JIllg said:

I mean, if he's Mullens with less ints, he's basically Jimmy G. I just think Purdy'll turn the ball over too much. Not too much to win like 2 out of 5 down the stretch, but too much to beat decent teams regularly. I would be delighted to be wrong.

I don't know that I'd go that far. I just don't know that mullens or Purdy are going to be anywhere near as good in the intermediate area of the field. I know that we mock Jimmy for the Jimmy int (missed robbers, linebacker) but he feasts on that area better than just about anyone. He's pretty damn aggro in that area too lol (Purdy did have a really nice aggressive throw to deebo on one third down, but I don't know that he can do that 12-15 yards as effectively as Jimmy). 

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Just now, Forge said:

I don't know that I'd go that far. I just don't know that mullens or Purdy are going to be anywhere near as good in the intermediate area of the field. I know that we mock Jimmy for the Jimmy int (missed robbers, linebacker) but he feasts on that area better than just about anyone. He's pretty damn aggro in that area too lol (Purdy did have a really nice aggressive throw to deebo on one third down, but I don't know that he can do that 12-15 yards as effectively as Jimmy). 

Mullens was plenty aggro in that area of the field, too. The man had an 8+ ypa. Now, Purdy has not been. He was a bit checkdown Charlie with a couple of decent throws on Sunday. 

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