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Week 14: San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers


J-ALL-DAY

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15 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

I mean it's possible, just not sure how one can say either way that he is likely to be anything at this point. 

It's based on the fact that most QBs fail depending on your grading system. Has nothing to do with Lance. Just like Purdy not being a quality starter really has nothing to do with him right now. Just probability 

I mean, I said in the post that he doesn't have the sample size to make any judgments based on his own play lol 

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1 hour ago, Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 said:

We do need a cheap vet like you described.  With Lance on the roster, there needs to be 3QB's on the 53.  

 

I've been convinced that we were going to bring in Darnold next year, but I think a lot of that could depend on how Purdy does down the stretch. If he's super god awful, then I think that they'll bring in a guy that could serve as a functional backup with Purdy sticking in the third string role. If Purdy does well enough, I think that they maybe bring in someone that is more of a  back to third string type of QB at this point. Maybe someone like a Mason Rudolph? 

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2 hours ago, Forge said:

After the possible (if not likely) failure of both RG3 and Trey Lance, I doubt that Kyle ever makes a big swing on a QB again lol. 

It's like how every time Kyle goes for it on 4th down and doesn't get it, I'm convinced he's never going to go for it again lol. I feel kind of the same thing here...he (and his father) have made huge swings on QB position and thus far, all have been abject disasters if you also include Jay Cutler (if you include him- they only made a small trade up and he actually did have some nominal success). I could totally see Kyle just being like, "nope...I've done that multiple times and it doesn't work...just give me those CJ Beathard and Brock Purdy's in the 3rd - 7th round and I'll make it work". 

I understand this line of reasoning, but I do not think your argument is sound. 

1) Trading up for RG3 was not something that the Shanahan's wanted. This is why Kyle has the final say on these types of moves here; he never wanted to be in a position where someone else forces a QB on him. So, in my opinion, using that as a reason Kyle won't try and get a blue-chip talent at QB doesn't quite fit.

2) QBs have been getting over drafted recently. The demand for QBs is great and there is a very limited supply of elite talent, so in order to really get a QB worth a damn, you need to either take a few years to develop a late round talent and hope they hit (negating the obvious advantage of the rookie contract), or you need to draft them in the first round.

3) We have seen Kyle get fixated on prospects and trade up (at poor value) to get "his guy". If there is a QB out there he wants, Kyle is not going to be shy about going up and getting him. Believe that. 

4) I can understand the argument that we do not need a "transcendent QB", but that sort of thinking will shorten our window substantially. Kyle said previously that there are only a handful of elite QBs in the league, and if you have one, you do everything you can to help him, and if you don't you just "try and win with what you have". That line of thinking says to me that Kyle very much values having a top tier QB. 

5) Process > Results - The "likely or possible failure of Trey" is strictly results based simply because we have burned 2 years of his rookie contract. There really is nothing in his play to suggest that Trey has/will be a failure. He quite simply has just been a victim of circumstances. There has been a lot to like. I have seen flashes of greatness. The lack of experience is the main negative. 

2 hours ago, JIllg said:

Lance's got an upward climb with no more leeway. I think if he had this year to work out kinks in a 9 or 10 win season, he would have had a better chance of getting his feet under him and finding a path to his own kind of productivity

I don't understand what precludes next year from being essentially what this year was supposed to be. DeMeco probably leaves, but the defense should still have its core and be a top 5/10 unit. The weapons will stay. The offensive coaches will stay. This will still be a very good situation for a young QB to gain experience on the fly. With a couple of tweaks, this team should win 9/10 games next year as well, just like they would have this year with Trey through the growing pains. 

I bet very heavily on the niners to win more than 10 games this year. I did it because I thought the defense would help us win games early, until the offense got going later in the year, and at that point we would be cooking with gas. I really do not see a reason why this same line of reasoning should not be applied next year. 9/10 wins will be good enough for the playoffs next year in all likelihood. 

2 hours ago, JIllg said:

he was getting really accurate and really dangerous on down the field throws even though his timing and accuracy everywhere else was very sketchy and he was really not making anyone miss tackles as a runner (a weird inversion of his accuracy and rushing profile in college and a death knell to being able to use this particular suite of weapons).

The bolded is why I ultimately believe Kyle will go back to Lance and give him a moderately long leash. His downfield accuracy has been sharp. It will open up the field. 

I do not think his accuracy in the short game has been that bad. There was significant improvement there from his first action against seattle to the houston game. 

Lance processes the game well. That was what drew Kyle to him in the first place and why Fields was behind Mac Jones. The timing will come with experience. He is physically capable of operating the offense, it is just a matter of doing it enough times to where it becomes second nature.

2 hours ago, JIllg said:

after McCaffrey, there is no more leeway. There is no more stretching your feet out to try and hold both the present and the future. It's time to win. We still need a cheap qb to afford this absurd collection of riches. But that cheap qb could even be an Andy Dalton type at this point. They just have to be able to hit simple throws in rhythm consistently. Kyle gets that much out of dudes and we have that much YAC talent.

This line of reasoning is not incorrect necessarily, but I just have a hard time buying into the idea that "it's time to win" means "it's time to turn over the offense to a cheap player off the scrap heap at the most important position in sports". Andy Dalton would not give us a better chance to win a superbowl than Lance would after making 20 starts (3 + 17). I just cannot buy into that narrative. 

Having elite weapons is a reason WHY Trey should be given a long leash, not a reason against. CMC should help him develop the underneath touch and timing because he is a top 5 receiving RB of all time. He can help cover up some of those issues early because the margin for error is greater while targeting him than other players in the league. 

Trey's cap hits are 9 and 10 million the next two seasons (23 and 24). Those are cap hits we will have regardless of who else we bring in at QB. Wouldnt the cheapest option be to keep Trey and Purdy as QB1 and QB2? So, if you are looking to save money to pay other players, sticking with Trey is really the best option. (11m cap hit to trade Trey for those wondering). 

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1 hour ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Bosa didn't practice for the second consecutive day. Shanny did say at the beginning of the week that they would manage him with his hammy injury. If he can't get on the field tomorrow, then there may be some real concern of his status for Sunday.

 

Don't need him. We got the purdy-man 

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22 hours ago, N4L said:

I understand this line of reasoning, but I do not think your argument is sound. 

5) Process > Results - The "likely or possible failure of Trey" is strictly results based simply because we have burned 2 years of his rookie contract. There really is nothing in his play to suggest that Trey has/will be a failure. He quite simply has just been a victim of circumstances. There has been a lot to like. I have seen flashes of greatness. The lack of experience is the main negative. 

I don't understand what precludes next year from being essentially what this year was supposed to be. DeMeco probably leaves, but the defense should still have its core and be a top 5/10 unit. The weapons will stay. The offensive coaches will stay. This will still be a very good situation for a young QB to gain experience on the fly. With a couple of tweaks, this team should win 9/10 games next year as well, just like they would have this year with Trey through the growing pains. 

I bet very heavily on the niners to win more than 10 games this year. I did it because I thought the defense would help us win games early, until the offense got going later in the year, and at that point we would be cooking with gas. I really do not see a reason why this same line of reasoning should not be applied next year. 9/10 wins will be good enough for the playoffs next year in all likelihood. 

The bolded is why I ultimately believe Kyle will go back to Lance and give him a moderately long leash. His downfield accuracy has been sharp. It will open up the field. 

I do not think his accuracy in the short game has been that bad. There was significant improvement there from his first action against seattle to the houston game. 

Lance processes the game well. That was what drew Kyle to him in the first place and why Fields was behind Mac Jones. The timing will come with experience. He is physically capable of operating the offense, it is just a matter of doing it enough times to where it becomes second nature.

Appreciate the response. Part of having a sound process means, for me, weighing the expected value of decisions by multiplying the value of possible outcomes by likelihood and then weighing them against each other.

In this case, I think mostly we disagree on the likelihood that Lance becomes an average starting quarterback or better next year. I completely agree that the best possible outcome is that we give Trey time and he grows into a franchise starting quarterback. But just because you can catch runner runner spades to get a nut flush doesn't mean that you should continue with that hand in all situations. In a situation where no one is betting against you or you are calling a minimal bet given the pot size, it would be great to continue. What can you lose? For bad teams the outcome on the other side of going with an established mediocre quarterback over a high upside younger guy is very low. They aren't risking anything. We are. Before the season, if we had an average quarterback, we profiled a 4-6 seed sort of playoff team. We could make some noise and be very annoying, but weren't a main contender for a title without a better quarterback. So we weren't risking as much. Our flush draw wasn't having to call as much of a bet. Now, with an average quarterback, this team challenges for the NFC and Super Bowl crowns every year. We have to call a big bet to continue with the flush draw. That's a lot of risk and to accept that kind of risk, you have to have a lot of value with a reasonable likelihood of gain on the other end.

I'm concerned that Lance will not be average given his circumstances. I'm concerned that the ceiling that was harped about prior to our drafting him is not as high as people believe. That our flush draw might not even be to the nuts. The rushing threat hasn't appeared. Lance's commanded the offense reasonably well and been terrific at maneuvering a pocket under pressure and avoiding sacks, but his presence has caused a larger portion of drives to stall out into non scores. He's had one good game of film out of 3 starts - an incredibly small sample size, for sure. But not something that you'd put on the positive end of the scale given the situation. Plus, we only have two more years of evaluation on Trey left before we have to try and catch our spades before we have to make a decision on his fifth year option. We know that about half of all 1st round quarterbacks fail, either bouncing out of the league or into reserve roles by the end of their rookie contracts. We also know that Trey will have had many fewer opportunities than most of those other 1st round picks making him less likely to have the experience and muscle memory than many of them in order to succeed.

I wish the best for Trey. I found him a fascinating prospect and the best version of the 9ers outcomes over the next couple of years includes him in it. But not having a veteran option on the lower end of the average spectrum that we can afford and would play over Trey if he isn't producing (or the unlikely but happy accident average Purdy that could perform the same role) would be too much risk for my blood at this point. And that isn't ring chasing behavior that ignores just how valuable a Trey that gets experience could be. I definitely get it. I was all for running through this season with Trey, even if it was rough, because the variables involved in that calculation were different at the beginning of the season. I just don't think that value is as likely to be realized now and we have fewer years and cards left to try and catch that genie in a bottle.  

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1 hour ago, Forge said:

So Jimmy not going on IR definitely means the team is holding out hope for him and still believes that Mitchell and Kinlaw are coming back

Agreed, and makes sense, I doubt that extra 53 man spot will hurt us, we can elevate 2 players each week anyway.

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