Path Forward - Running Backs

[Just Want A Title]

Our running-game has slowed down a bit from the beginning of the year.  Jamal Williams is a good RB who runs hard and has been awesome in short-yardage as well as the red-zone.  D'Andre Swift hasn't been healthy most of the year and hasn't provided the "chunk plays" that we were expecting since early in the season.  Justin Jackson has been solid in his role should see a few more snaps per game.  Jamal Williams is a free agent and 28 years old.  He has earned another contract but he might be most effective as a part of a RB-by committee than a true RB1.  Given his production this year a SB contender might give Jamal WIlliams an offer we don't want to match.  The same goes for Justin Jackson.  Hopefully the Lions won't be complacent about upgrading their RB talent

https://www.mlive.com/lions/2022/12/the-lions-are-rolling-but-their-once-mighty-running-game-is-in-decline.html

Our options:

Free agency:  If we choose to a RB by committee there are some solid options.  Miles Sanders, Tony Pollard and David Montgomery are some the options available.  Samaje Perine might also be in the mix if we have to replace Justin Jackson.  

Draft prospects:

Bijan Robinson--The RB position has been de-valued but he is rated as one of the top-15 players by most analysts with some even using the words "generation RB".  He has good burst, good size, has shown good hands as a pass-catcher and runs very good routes.  Here is a crazy stat I read--credited with causing 88 missed tackles which means his elusiveness and contact balance are really good.  If the Lions keep winning he might be a realistic option for our second first-round pick because will be ready to contribute in almost every situation very early in his career.  He isn't making it out of the first round unless something bad comes up at the combine (medicals, slow 40 or 3-cone, ect)

Jahmyr Gibbs--He isn't as big as Bijan Robinson but he is a very good RB prospect.  He shows very good speed and runs really good routes.  His pass-blocking isn't so great but that is true of a lot of RBs coming out.  He has the potential to be a homerun threat both running and receiving.  He runs hard but using him in more of a power-back role might be asking too much.  He seems like a better version of Tony Pollard.  He may go off the board in the late first round but won't last long in the second round if he drops.

Devon Archane--He is a smaller back at 5'9" and 190Lbs but his speed, acceleration and elusiveness are really good.  He might be best suited to split time between playing RB and WR.  If Ben Johnson works his magic to get him in space consistently he will give defenses fits.  He will probably do best as a RB2/RB3 committee situation due to his size but he could bring the sizzle that we were expecting from D'Andre Swift

Zach Evans--He has good size at 6'0 and 215 Lbs.  He has good speed but isn't as elusive as the other RBs above (more straight-line speed).  He has shown solid pass-catching skills.  To me, he would be a more-skilled version of Justin Jackson.  He seems like a Day 2 RB that could end up having a very good rookie season

Kendre Miller--He seems like a somewhat under-rated RB.  He has good size and speed and seems to already have solid blocking skills.  He isn't as developed in the passing game but if he can show good running skills and block reliably in passing situations as a rookie he would make a very good addition to the Lions.  He seems like a very clean RB prospect.

Nakia Watson--He finally seemed to put things together for Washington St this year.  He is a thick/sturdy RB with solid speed and contact balance.  He isn't on most radars right now but when you are 5'11 and 230 Lbs with solid skills, he will get someone's attention.  A late-round/UDFA that could get a roster spot.  

 

I left a bunch of prospects off the list intentionally.  RB seems to be a position where evaluations vary the most.  It is also a position where a relatively unknown prospect can step in and make an impact fairly easily.  Who else should be on the radar for the Lions?

 

Edited December 13, 2022 by Just Want A Title

[Sllim Pickens]

I do like Charbonet from UCLA in the draft as well.  I think there will be a lot of talent in that 2-4 round area that can help replace Swift if we really like someone.  

Free agent wise, I think Jamaal is resigned given his leadership role on the team.  Plus he has been great this year and is still just 27.  

There are some other good free agents you left off, some more pricey than others like Saquan Barkley, Kareem Hunt, Rashaad Penny, Josh Jacobs, D'Onta Foreman, Devin Singletary, Darrien Harris, and Alexander Mattison.  I dont want to spend big on one but adding any of these guys would help our RB rotation.  I think I would rather just draft a younger guy and see if he can unseat Swift for future years.   

[Karnage84]

22 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

He seems like a better version of Tony Pollard

Who was a 4th round guy and is still in a RBBC. 

[Just Want A Title]

16 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I do like Charbonet from UCLA in the draft as well.  I think there will be a lot of talent in that 2-4 round area that can help replace Swift if we really like someone.  

Free agent wise, I think Jamaal is resigned given his leadership role on the team.  Plus he has been great this year and is still just 27.  

There are some other good free agents you left off, some more pricey than others like Saquan Barkley, Kareem Hunt, Rashaad Penny, Josh Jacobs, D'Onta Foreman, Devin Singletary, Darrien Harris, and Alexander Mattison.  I dont want to spend big on one but adding any of these guys would help our RB rotation.  I think I would rather just draft a younger guy and see if he can unseat Swift for future years.   

Zach Charbonet is a solid runner with good size but not too elusive.  He has had a lot of carries in college.  He improved a lot with his pass-catching this year but like most rookies, his pass-blocking will be a work-in-progress

[Just Want A Title]

25 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

Who was a 4th round guy and is still in a RBBC. 

Here is a good article on Tony Pollard.  It obviously worked out well for the Cowboys but if he continued some of the things he did on college (not strong on tape study) he probably would not be where he is today.

https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl-draft-steal-tony-pollard-makes-push-to-be-cowboys-future-rb-1-121735816.html

Check out his weaknesses from his draft profile.  He wasn't a complete player by any stretch when he was drafted

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/tony-pollard/3200504f-4c28-3188-35b8-d0ae9db0f68a

Edited December 13, 2022 by Just Want A Title

[Just Want A Title]

10 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

Here is a good article on Tony Pollard.  It obviously worked out well for the Cowboys but if he continued some of the things he did on college (not strong on tape study) he probably would not be where he is today.

https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl-draft-steal-tony-pollard-makes-push-to-be-cowboys-future-rb-1-121735816.html

Check out his weaknesses from his draft profile.  He wasn't a complete player by any stretch when he was drafted

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/tony-pollard/3200504f-4c28-3188-35b8-d0ae9db0f68a

If you want a good contrast to Tony Pollard look at Jermar Jefferson.  The only thing he is good at is running the ball.  He still hasn't shown enough to stick on our roster despite having all of the physical tools to be a solid RB.

[Lions017]

I don't think that Swift gets extended. You just can't rely on him. I can see Williams coming back at a similar salary to what he has now (he is getting up there) and then a mid-round rookie getting added to the mix. I think that the Rams often draft a RB almost every year...wouldn't shock me if we do that and keep bringing in fresh legs. We've seen this year that we don't necessarily need a stud like Bijan taking 20 carries to be a goo running offense. 

[Sllim Pickens]

1 hour ago, Lions017 said:

I don't think that Swift gets extended. You just can't rely on him. I can see Williams coming back at a similar salary to what he has now (he is getting up there) and then a mid-round rookie getting added to the mix. I think that the Rams often draft a RB almost every year...wouldn't shock me if we do that and keep bringing in fresh legs. We've seen this year that we don't necessarily need a stud like Bijan taking 20 carries to be a goo running offense. 

Williams will be 28 next year and is younger than Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, Zeke, Fournette, Hunt etc. Plus he has significantly less miles on him.  He will likely get a bump in pay, slight into that 4-5 per year range.  Given his leadership in the locker room I would expect them to do what they have to do to keep him but hopefully that doesn't involve overpaying him. 

I agree on Swift.  I wouldn't be shocked if we trade him this offseason and bring in a rookie to go with Williams and Jefferson.     

[Karnage84]

33 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Williams will be 28 next year and is younger than Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, Zeke, Fournette, Hunt etc. Plus he has significantly less miles on him.  He will likely get a bump in pay, slight into that 4-5 per year range.  Given his leadership in the locker room I would expect them to do what they have to do to keep him but hopefully that doesn't involve overpaying him. 

I agree on Swift.  I wouldn't be shocked if we trade him this offseason and bring in a rookie to go with Williams and Jefferson.     

I personally think we could get a 2nd+ in a trade for Swift. Some team is going to bank on him being the weapon that he has shown he can be and get them into the next level as a SB contender. I could see KC or Buffalo making a move like that. 

[Just Want A Title]

7 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

I personally think we could get a 2nd+ in a trade for Swift. Some team is going to bank on him being the weapon that he has shown he can be and get them into the next level as a SB contender. I could see KC or Buffalo making a move like that. 

It would be pretty tough to get a team to pony up a 2d round pick given the availability problems that D'Andre Swift has shown.  I suspect his trade value would something like a conditional 4th round pick.

[Karnage84]

21 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

It would be pretty tough to get a team to pony up a 2d round pick given the availability problems that D'Andre Swift has shown.  I suspect his trade value would something like a conditional 4th round pick.

He can be one of the best RB's in the league talent wise. We've seen flashes of that. It's the lack of availability and that he seems to not finish at times that's stopping him from reaching those heights. You could be right in terms of the value but I just have a feeling he's going to be valued more than we expect from an outside organization. A lot of people don't pay a ton of attention to the Lions until as of late and there's the narrative surrounding the organization that we're slowly chipping away at. 

[LionArkie]

2 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

He can be one of the best RB's in the league talent wise. We've seen flashes of that. It's the lack of availability and that he seems to not finish at times that's stopping him from reaching those heights. You could be right in terms of the value but I just have a feeling he's going to be valued more than we expect from an outside organization. A lot of people don't pay a ton of attention to the Lions until as of late and there's the narrative surrounding the organization that we're slowly chipping away at. 

We can always hope. <sarcasm>Maybe the Vikings. They already gave us a 2nd for Hock. Maybe we could their 2024 2nd as well.</sarcasm>

Edited December 14, 2022 by LionArkie

[Karnage84]

6 minutes ago, LionArkie said:

We can always hope. <sarcasm>Maybe the Vikings. They already gave us a 2nd for Hock. Maybe we could there 2024 2nd as well.</sarcasm>

[Just Want A Title]

2 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

He can be one of the best RB's in the league talent wise. We've seen flashes of that. It's the lack of availability and that he seems to not finish at times that's stopping him from reaching those heights. You could be right in terms of the value but I just have a feeling he's going to be valued more than we expect from an outside organization. A lot of people don't pay a ton of attention to the Lions until as of late and there's the narrative surrounding the organization that we're slowly chipping away at. 

Most teams aren't going to give up a 2d round pick for "could be" .  This also speaks to something I mentioned in another thread about over-valuing our players.  Marshall Faulk was traded for a 2d and 5th round pick if I remember correctly.  Jerome Bettis was traded for a 2d and a 4th.  D'Andre Swift isn't even close to proving he is that type of player.  If he was healthy and producing consistently it would be a different story.  

[Sllim Pickens]

47 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

Most teams aren't going to give up a 2d round pick for "could be" .  This also speaks to something I mentioned in another thread about over-valuing our players.  Marshall Faulk was traded for a 2d and 5th round pick if I remember correctly.  Jerome Bettis was traded for a 2d and a 4th.  D'Andre Swift isn't even close to proving he is that type of player.  If he was healthy and producing consistently it would be a different story.  

Agreed.  Also if he was healthy and producing we would be more likely to resign him or at least not having this conversation.  My guess is he would go for a 4th or later since he only has one year left on a decent deal before needing to be paid.  This would bring up the question, does he have more value to next years team on his cheap deal than a 4th or 5th round pick would have. 

I guess a better question would be, what would people be comfortable paying him if we were to extend him?  The RB contracts are odd as the elites that have been resigned have been signed for 12M plus per year but all right around there other than Zeke, Kamara and McCaffrey who are at 15/16 per year.  Swift obviously isnt in that territory and isnt in the 2nd tier category either.  After those guys, there is a drop off to Barkley who is in the last year of a top 3 pick rookie deal at 7.9M per and a couple guys in that 7 range like Fournette and Connor. I would say we could give him 4-6 a year and hope we can get that health from him and make the deal structure to allow easy outs after year 1 or 2.  If he wants any more than that, let him go.