Path Forward - Running Backs

[Just Want A Title]

29 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Agreed.  Also if he was healthy and producing we would be more likely to resign him or at least not having this conversation.  My guess is he would go for a 4th or later since he only has one year left on a decent deal before needing to be paid.  This would bring up the question, does he have more value to next years team on his cheap deal than a 4th or 5th round pick would have. 

I guess a better question would be, what would people be comfortable paying him if we were to extend him?  The RB contracts are odd as the elites that have been resigned have been signed for 12M plus per year but all right around there other than Zeke, Kamara and McCaffrey who are at 15/16 per year.  Swift obviously isnt in that territory and isnt in the 2nd tier category either.  After those guys, there is a drop off to Barkley who is in the last year of a top 3 pick rookie deal at 7.9M per and a couple guys in that 7 range like Fournette and Connor. I would say we could give him 4-6 a year and hope we can get that health from him and make the deal structure to allow easy outs after year 1 or 2.  If he wants any more than that, let him go.  

He has been healthy for the last 2-3 games but something is missing from his performance.  It seems like if we need 10 yards for a first down, he goes down after getting nine.  If he needs to get to the goal-line he seems to come up half-yard short.  Jamal Williams has been very good in the red zone and short yardage but it would take a lot of pressure off of the offense if we avoided the need for the extra play in the first place.  

[Sllim Pickens]

33 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

He has been healthy for the last 2-3 games but something is missing from his performance.  It seems like if we need 10 yards for a first down, he goes down after getting nine.  If he needs to get to the goal-line he seems to come up half-yard short.  Jamal Williams has been very good in the red zone and short yardage but it would take a lot of pressure off of the offense if we avoided the need for the extra play in the first place.  

I have not noticed that at all tbh.  I have noticed he sometimes jumps around too much in the backfield which leads to a loss but if he gets past the line of scrimmage, he seems to be finishing runs strong.   I am sure there isn't a specific stat for that but his attempts per first down (5.0) this year is better than last year (5.39) and similarly his catches per first down are the same between last and this year (3.45).  Also his yards after contact is up .1 yards compared to last year.  So unless its something you have noticed forever, I dont think this year is any different.  

[Nnivolcm]

5 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

I personally think we could get a 2nd+ in a trade for Swift. Some team is going to bank on him being the weapon that he has shown he can be and get them into the next level as a SB contender. I could see KC or Buffalo making a move like that. 

I guess all it takes is one team to value him that much but I'd be shocked if the Lions got anything close to that amount for Swift.

[Just Want A Title]

7 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I have not noticed that at all tbh.  I have noticed he sometimes jumps around too much in the backfield which leads to a loss but if he gets past the line of scrimmage, he seems to be finishing runs strong.   I am sure there isn't a specific stat for that but his attempts per first down (5.0) this year is better than last year (5.39) and similarly his catches per first down are the same between last and this year (3.45).  Also his yards after contact is up .1 yards compared to last year.  So unless its something you have noticed forever, I dont think this year is any different.  

Observation from the Bills game:

- I want to like D'Andre Swift as I suspect most Lions fans do.  I don't know if it is his injury issues but it looks like he is avoiding contact in key situations.  The catch he dropped at the goal-line was a very makeable catch but it looked like he pulled back to avoid punishment and caused an incompletion.  He also seems to come up just short of the first-down marker on a lot of his runs.  I don't see him becoming RB2 or RB1 at this point

[Sllim Pickens]

21 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

Observation from the Bills game:

- I want to like D'Andre Swift as I suspect most Lions fans do.  I don't know if it is his injury issues but it looks like he is avoiding contact in key situations.  The catch he dropped at the goal-line was a very makeable catch but it looked like he pulled back to avoid punishment and caused an incompletion.  He also seems to come up just short of the first-down marker on a lot of his runs.  I don't see him becoming RB2 or RB1 at this point

I like Swift but don't love him, but also will not criticize him just to do it.  That drop against the Bills hurt, but he also had to do a complete 180 while running because the ball was behind him and Milano made a good play.  I saw no instance of him bracing for a hit causing that incompletion, it was just an issue with his adjusting to the ball being behind him and to the opposite shoulder than he was expecting.  I am not sure who was right/wrong and he still should have caught it, but it would have been a tough catch.  

And I really have not noticed him avoiding contact or going down short of first downs/end zones.  I do remember one play in which his knee hit just before he scored but he bull dozed his way to the point it was even close so I am not going to fault him for that.  He has not been in for many short to go situations, but when he has, he has scored or got the first more often than not.  Without re-watching every run/catch I can't say for sure but I definitely have not noticed anything like that in the games I have watched. 

[Just Want A Title]

20 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I like Swift but don't love him, but also will not criticize him just to do it.  That drop against the Bills hurt, but he also had to do a complete 180 while running because the ball was behind him and Milano made a good play.  I saw no instance of him bracing for a hit causing that incompletion, it was just an issue with his adjusting to the ball being behind him and to the opposite shoulder than he was expecting.  I am not sure who was right/wrong and he still should have caught it, but it would have been a tough catch.  

And I really have not noticed him avoiding contact or going down short of first downs/end zones.  I do remember one play in which his knee hit just before he scored but he bull dozed his way to the point it was even close so I am not going to fault him for that.  He has not been in for many short to go situations, but when he has, he has scored or got the first more often than not.  Without re-watching every run/catch I can't say for sure but I definitely have not noticed anything like that in the games I have watched. 

It isn't criticism for the sake of criticism.  The Lions spent a high 2d round pick on D'Andre Swift so that he could be the "lightning" part of a Thunder and Lightning RB committee.  Right now, he is essentially RB#3.  That run to the pylon by Justin Jackson is the type of play that he should be capable of making but for whatever reason it doesn't really happen.  The Lions need that "lightning" component of the running game to maximize the potential of their passing game and lean on it when the passing game isn't clicking.