Week… something. Vs… someone.

[ET80]

3 hours ago, PAtexansFAN_99 said:

You can't just throw that guy in the garbage man, there's something there.

Where was this week 1-13? 

3 hours ago, PAtexansFAN_99 said:

I say we get him some toys and let him try with a competitive WR group, and then if he blows it again, THEN, I'm ready. But guys, he's throwing to nobody. He looked the part today, all I'm sayin.

No thanks. Life comes at you fast - Mills had his chance and he failed. I’m not wasting another season on the guy, and neither is anyone else.

[Blaze]

9 hours ago, PAtexansFAN_99 said:

I'm just saying like, if that was a rookie first round QB playing like that throwing to Chris Moore and Jordan Akins, and moving around the way he was today. Who the hell is that guy? I've never seen him do that stuff man that was really something watching him bobbing and weaving between the rushers like that. And he's even got a pretty mean lil dead leg he's been throwing the last couple weeks. Like, that looked pretty damn good to me. You can't just throw that guy in the garbage man, there's something there. If he plays like this the last three games, I say we get him some toys and let him try with a competitive WR group, and then if he blows it again, THEN, I'm ready. But guys, he's throwing to nobody. He looked the part today, all I'm sayin.

I can't tell if you're trolling our not. 🤨

All I can say is look at the sample size, not just prisoner of the moment one game, which was my fear. A series of games at the end of the year having people believe he turned a corner. 

Even if they select Bryce Young, Mills will get a chance to play. Best case scenario, he plays well enough for Bryce to hold the clip board at the beginning. Either Mills can be a quality back up or trade bait for someone else.

At the end of thr day, the Mills selection was a win as a 3rd round pick. But he just isn't the franchise guy and it should be treated as such.

[PAtexansFAN_99]

50 minutes ago, Blaze said:

I can't tell if you're trolling our not. 🤨

All I can say is look at the sample size, not just prisoner of the moment one game, which was my fear. A series of games at the end of the year having people believe he turned a corner. 

Even if they select Bryce Young, Mills will get a chance to play. Best case scenario, he plays well enough for Bryce to hold the clip board at the beginning. Either Mills can be a quality back up or trade bait for someone else.

At the end of thr day, the Mills selection was a win as a 3rd round pick. But he just isn't the franchise guy and it should be treated as such.

I'd say there've been a few good ones. He played decently in the opener. The Raiders game was really good for the most part I thought, and the Eagles game, and then if he just rattles off like 5 really strong performances in a row, I just think we'd be foolish to assume he'll never be good enough. 

I'm not even against bringing in a QB, I'd just prefer to try and hit on one in the later rounds. I'd like to bring in someone who can provide a spark and athletic upside in the event that Mills can't stop ****ting the bed. Like, I think Mills actually gets a little better every time you bench him, whenever there's a threat to his job he stops like throwing it away all the time and checking it down for 2 yard losses. I want someone with starter upside to provide necessary pressure on Mills. Just looking through the QB rankings, someone like Jayden Daniels could be interesting. We might be able to get him at the top of the 4th round. Cameron Ward looks pretty good to me as well. Bo Nix too. 

I just think that like, Jalen Hurtses are made, they're not born that way. So many things had to go right for that guy to develop the way he has. I don't think it's that crazy to think Mills might be having similar success to what Hurts is doing if the universe had spat him onto the Eagles rather than the Texans. That's not even the point I'm making though, what I'm trying to say is that I believe better team=better qb. I know ET and probably a lot of ya'll think it's better qb=better team. I think both are probably correct to some extent. Just, if I've got to pick between a better roster with a lower upside QB vs a weaker roster with a higher upside QB, I'm pretty sure I'm taking the former. 

[ET80]

On 12/18/2022 at 2:56 PM, PAtexansFAN_99 said:

Mills looks ******* great out there, come on man. He's pretty damn good, we're running offense like Chris Moore was Andre Johnson or some ****. He's gonna be a player in the league for a long time, not a bust. Not at all. 

I've REALLY been struggling with this, because I don't know if I watched the same game as you did - so I did a really deep dive into Mills' performance and whether or not it's good. Luckily, we have NFL Next Gen stats to lean into so we can take a quantifiable view (apples to apples, not relying on subjective eye tests that will never be aligned). I'm not focusing on the one fumble that in essence lost the game, I'm not focusing on any individual play - I'm looking at the performance in it's entirety and weighing it against both his peers at the position as well as when juxtaposed against the performance of the rest of the offense.

So, let's get the baseline stats out of the way:

D. Mills: 12/24, 121 yards, 5.0 ypa, 2 TDs, 0 INTs; 5 carries, 21 yards, 1 TD

So, the 3 TDs stand out - it's the first time this season Mills has been responsible for more than two TDs. (For reference - Brock Purdy has one 3 TD game in two starts, Mike White has one 3 TD in three starts, Andy Dalton has two different 3 TD games in 11 starts). It's a nice stat, but far from an indicator that it's some high watermark. I'm more worried about the completion percentage (50% in a season where the league median is about 65% - very below average) and the YPA (5.0, league median is 7.1) as well as YPC (10.0, league median is 11.1). So he's not completing passes to league standards, and he's not really throwing for depth either. 

Now - your argument is the quality of supporting cast, which (all things considered) we can all agree isn't exactly great. This being said, he's getting enough time to make a decision and his targets are getting open ...based on NFL Next Gen stats:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/34536376/2022-nfl-pass-rushing-run-stopping-blocking-leaderboard-win-rate-rankings-top-players-teams?platform=amp

Pass block win rate is defined as how often an OL allows a QB 2.5 seconds to make a decision and get rid of the ball (which is on average how fast a QB has to get rid of a ball for positive yardage). It judges the OL as a unit, so if one guy fails, the entire unit fails.

As the chart above states, Texans are 21st in PBWR, with a 57% win rate - so over half the time, Davis Mills (Jeff Driskel/Kyle Allen) has 2.5 seconds to make a decision year-to-date. Is it KCs OL? Is it Philly's OL? No, but it's not the worst OL in regards to setting up a QB to read the defense and make a decision. Furthermore, the Texans OL gave up zero sacks and only allowed Mills to be hit four times vs KC, above average numbers based on both the traditional performance of this OL as well as vs how other OLs perform.

Put all this together, and you have quantifiable proof that Mills had time to make throws. To further prove this: In the KC game, NFL Next Gen stats have Mills' time to throw (TT) at 2.68 - above average time based on what other QBs deal with.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#yards

Now - your bigger argument - receivers aren't getting open. Luckily, there's stats for this too, courtesy of Next Gen stats:

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving/2022/REG/15#yards

Looking at Chris Moore - he was able to create on average 1.8 yards of separation on the routes he ran (similar to the separation created by AJ Brown, Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill, Garrett Wilson, Christian Kirk, Mike Williams, JaMarr Chase, during Week 15). So... Moore IS getting open.

(***PLEASE NOTE*** In no way am I saying Moore is as good as the WRs listed above. I am illustrating that he's creating similar separation as these guys). 

Now, onto TE - Jordan Akins is getting about 2.1 yards of separation on the routes he runs (similar to TEs such as Mark Andrews, Chig Okonkwo). He's actually behind others playing TE, median on this value is 3.8. (See bolded disclaimer above). Interestingly, Akins had - on average - a 7.3 yard cushion on every route he runs vs KC (median is 5.4 yards week 15). So, he's getting a substantial cushion pre-snap.

So - put it all together:

- The Texans OL is creating time to throw at a good level. Above the average time needed for a QB, and better than they traditionally perform over the course of the season.

- WR1 is creating separation on par with some of the most productive WRs in football.

- TE1 is not creating that sort of separation compared to his peers, but he's starting off with a bigger cushion than most at the position.

So - given all of these things that should favor a more robust passing attack - why is Mills below average on completion percentage and YPA/YPC? 

My conclusion to all of this - Davis Mills didn't have a good game yesterday. It's good by HIS standard, sure. But when measured against the other 32 starting QBs, it's very much below average and more of a bottom tier performance.

I know it seems as if I'm railing on you - and believe me, at first I thought what someone else thought and figured you were trolling (which is why I came in hot in our earlier engagement - I went into Mod mode, which is very much like being a bouncer in Vegas, I make things uncomfortable for the poster without going over the edge). In later interactions, it was apparent to me that you genuinely feel this way; Which is perfectly fine, I sincerely wish I shared your optimism and I actually second guessed how I'm watching the game (I can admit I lean pessimistic when it comes to the Texans).

But once I really touched on the numbers - I felt the need to share, it really painted an interesting picture and I wanted to get your specific feedback on it. Is there something quantifiable that we can look at that tells us something different?

[PAtexansFAN_99]

Man, it is exhausting defending my opinions lol. 

Chris Moore has been playing well, I'll admit that. I'll also admit that the OL played pretty damn well. I would argue that these were contributing factors to how well Mills played, and that they show the effect of a supporting cast on Mills' performances. Even if NextGen stats say Moore and Akins are performing well enough to remove all excuses from Mills, I really don't think that's entirely true. What about WR #2? What about a decent receiving RB? What about the times when Mills hits Moore in the face and he drops it (like that one third down play against Dallas). 

If we're going to compare Mills to the other 31 starting QBs, shouldn't we also consider the other QB's WRs/TEs win rate? I highly doubt, even if you consider the play of Akins and Moore, that anyone else is operating in an offense with fewer playmakers. Even if I go out on a limb with you and say that Chris Moore is as effective as AJ Brown, what about Devonta Smith? What about Dallas Goedert? You can't convince me that we're not in a tier of our own at the very bottom in terms of pass catching talent. 

Also, I'm not saying he's currently good enough. I'm saying, to me, he's shown enough potential to be an intriguing option. I believe there's quite a bit of untapped potential there. He's clearly getting better. The way he's been stepping up, maneuvering between rushers, picking his spots to take off and run, that's all good **** imo. In the Chiefs game, to me, he looked like what I would hope a young developing QB would look like.

On 12/19/2022 at 11:00 AM, PAtexansFAN_99 said:

I'm not even against bringing in a QB, I'd just prefer to try and hit on one in the later rounds.

I don't think we can afford to waste a first or second round pick on one of the only positions on the team that's showing progress. I think we could take one a little later on (a la Davis Mills) to come in and provide a spark in the event that Mills seals his fate next season as being not starting caliber, but I think no matter who's playing QB for us next season, it will be important to surround that guy with enough talent to make a legitimate determination one way or another. 

If we pick Bryce Young, I'm ok with it. I understand that he's probably already a better player than Mills is. I acknowledge and understand the argument for replacing Mills with Young. He's now had a full season, and simply didn't perform nearly consistently enough to earn himself another opportunity. I get it. There were many games where I literally couldn't even watch this team, and where I was screaming at my television about how Mills is trash. But what I'm seeing now (what I hope I'm seeing now) is the reward for having gone through those games. He's gotten better (this is also his first year in a new offense so I think it's to be expected that he'd take some time to get acclimated). I just think he might be close, and if we replace him now then all of that suffering will have been for naught. A total waste of time. 

For me, these last 3 games mean a helluva lot. If he finishes the season with 5 straight solid performances (if he plays as well in the next 3 games as he has in the last 2) I want to bring in a mid round QB to start developing behind him and to replace him if he's bad next year with LEGITIMATE STARTER UPSIDE. None of this Kyle Allen bs. Legitimate competition. In a best case scenario I think we should bring in someone to challenge him for the starting job. But yea, most importantly I think we need to upgrade the pass catching talent. If Mills ****s the bed these last three weeks, I'll finally be over it, but if he rattles off 5 straight good games at the end I don't think we can afford to just pretend he's completely valueless. 

I honestly can't believe we all watched these last two games and I'm the only one who feels this way.

[ET80]

21 hours ago, PAtexansFAN_99 said:

I would argue that these were contributing factors to how well Mills played…

I think you missed my overall point:

On 12/20/2022 at 10:04 AM, ET80 said:

My conclusion to all of this - Davis Mills didn't have a good game yesterday.

If you think he did have a good game, tell me why. Find me a single statistical measure that points to him having a good game - because that stat doesn’t exist.