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Week 16: San Francisco 49ers vs Washington Commanders


J-ALL-DAY

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Not sure anyone would have expected this team to clinch the NFC West with three weeks to go when the team started out 3-4, but here we are! Now the only thing we are playing for is the 2nd seed. We will likely need to win out to even have a chance at the 2nd seed. First up Washington..........

Offensively, I think this team is going to have some struggles. Washington is 6-2-1 in the last 9 games while allowing less than 18 PPG. They have been one of the best defensive teams in the league during that stretch and Purdy will be facing a top 10 defense with a bunch of studs at the DL. I'm curious to see how Shanny plans to exploit this defense and if he will smarten up and lessen the workload of CMC's. This is a game we need to get Aiyuk more involved in the offense as he has barely been utilized since Purdy has taken over. Last week was the Kittle game and this week needs to be the Aiyuk game. This game will be a big test four our OL and I'm looking forward to it as there are a few DL's on the Commanders level that we will need to get past in the NFC to reach the SB. Purdy should be healthier and be able to rollout more but this should still be a heavy run oriented game. Please give Mason 10+ carries for once, Kyle!

Defensively, the Commanders are pretty well balanced in terms of the pass and run attempts. I'm not sure just how how good our run defense is at the moment with all the injuries. We have kind of been lucky that teams haven't gone to the run all that much the last three weeks but it could be fools gold. We are facing some depth issues so having Kinlaw back would be huge. I expect Heinicke to take his fair shot of deep shots to Doctson and McLaurin so our safeties will need to be on point. Even with some of the talent they have offensively, our defense should hold this unit to under 17 points.

DVOA rankings through week 15:

Team - 3rd

Offense - 7th

Defense - 1st

STs - 13th

Now this is more like it! 

As for the prediction of the game, I will go:

SF 24

WAS 10 

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I'm playing around on rbsdm.com to look at the team EPA rankings and if you go back to week 6 when the Commanders started turning things around, their defense has been really good. But, if you start looking at them over the past 3 weeks, both their offense and defense has not been playing real well: https://rbsdm.com/stats/stats/

Their run defense has been pretty good over the last couple of weeks, but their pass defense has really taken a step back. They've been pretty good at running the ball, too, but not great throwing it. 

Even though they've been struggling on pass defense, I'm still very interested to see how Purdy handles it. It will be the best pass defense Purdy has faced yet and nice test for him. 

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13 minutes ago, Forge said:

I think Chase Young is back for this one? Not sure how much it matters, he'll be on a pitch count, but notable

If you venture over to the Commanders forum, it sounds like he is a lost hope and scared to get on the field. It will be interesting to see if he plays this week or not and if he will be effective.

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4 hours ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Not sure anyone would have expected this team to clinch the NFC West with three weeks to go when the team started out 3-4, but here we are! Now the only thing we are playing for is the 2nd seed. We will likely need to win out to even have a chance at the 2nd seed. First up Washington..........

Offensively, I think this team is going to have some struggles. Washington is 6-2-1 in the last 9 games while allowing less than 18 PPG. They have been one of the best defensive teams in the league during that stretch and Purdy will be facing a top 10 defense with a bunch of studs at the DL. I'm curious to see how Shanny plans to exploit this defense and if he will smarten up and lessen the workload of CMC's. This is a game we need to get Aiyuk more involved in the offense as he has barely been utilized since Purdy has taken over. Last week was the Kittle game and this week needs to be the Aiyuk game. This game will be a big test four our OL and I'm looking forward to it as there are a few DL's on the Commanders level that we will need to get past in the NFC to reach the SB. Purdy should be healthier and be able to rollout more but this should still be a heavy run oriented game. Please give Mason 10+ carries for once, Kyle!

Defensively, the Commanders are pretty well balanced in terms of the pass and run attempts. I'm not sure just how how good our run defense is at the moment with all the injuries. We have kind of been lucky that teams haven't gone to the run all that much the last three weeks but it could be fools gold. We are facing some depth issues so having Kinlaw back would be huge. I expect Heinicke to take his fair shot of deep shots to Doctson and McLaurin so our safeties will need to be on point. Even with some of the talent they have offensively, our defense should hold this unit to under 17 points.

DVOA rankings through week 15:

Team - 3rd

Offense - 7th

Defense - 1st

STs - 13th

Now this is more like it! 

As for the prediction of the game, I will go:

SF 24

WAS 10 

I'm kind of surprised by how high they are on Special Teams seeing as how we've struggled at times on kick return coverage. But I think Wish & McCloud have been big parts of this ranking, Gould too.

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10 hours ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Not sure anyone would have expected this team to clinch the NFC West with three weeks to go when the team started out 3-4, but here we are! Now the only thing we are playing for is the 2nd seed. We will likely need to win out to even have a chance at the 2nd seed. First up Washington..........

Offensively, I think this team is going to have some struggles. Washington is 6-2-1 in the last 9 games while allowing less than 18 PPG. They have been one of the best defensive teams in the league during that stretch and Purdy will be facing a top 10 defense with a bunch of studs at the DL. I'm curious to see how Shanny plans to exploit this defense and if he will smarten up and lessen the workload of CMC's. This is a game we need to get Aiyuk more involved in the offense as he has barely been utilized since Purdy has taken over. Last week was the Kittle game and this week needs to be the Aiyuk game. This game will be a big test four our OL and I'm looking forward to it as there are a few DL's on the Commanders level that we will need to get past in the NFC to reach the SB. Purdy should be healthier and be able to rollout more but this should still be a heavy run oriented game. Please give Mason 10+ carries for once, Kyle!

Defensively, the Commanders are pretty well balanced in terms of the pass and run attempts. I'm not sure just how how good our run defense is at the moment with all the injuries. We have kind of been lucky that teams haven't gone to the run all that much the last three weeks but it could be fools gold. We are facing some depth issues so having Kinlaw back would be huge. I expect Heinicke to take his fair shot of deep shots to Doctson and McLaurin so our safeties will need to be on point. Even with some of the talent they have offensively, our defense should hold this unit to under 17 points.

DVOA rankings through week 15:

Team - 3rd

Offense - 7th

Defense - 1st

STs - 13th

Now this is more like it! 

As for the prediction of the game, I will go:

SF 24

WAS 10 

Around that time, I was worried about the offense staying stagnant and the team going to 3-5

Somebody told me to relax, this team will get better.  That dude was right, lol.  Extremely right.  

Edited by Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420
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46 minutes ago, Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 said:

Around that time, I was worried about the offense staying stagnant and the team going to 3-5

Somebody told me to relax, this team will get better.  That dude was right, lol.  Extremely right.  

It really seems like this is becoming our teams M.O. we start off really shaky and then string together a big streak and go into the playoffs hot. 

It’s hard not to feel down when you have a losing record, but I won’t be fooled again! …until next year.

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23 minutes ago, GW21 said:

I also don’t trust the backup QB for the Lions; he’s a shady character.

It's funny how those RGs have worked. The team would like Burford to be good at everything, but he just hasn't executed his run blocking assignments well at all (and had a couple of brain farts in stunt and blitz pickup). So they play Brunskill on a lot of downs. But Burford gets a lot of passing down snaps because he can block a decent player one on one most of the time and Brunskill cannot. First team I've seen with a switch-hitting RG, lol. Burford was a quality run blocker as a LT in college. You'd hope that he'd get it eventually.

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27 minutes ago, JIllg said:

It's funny how those RGs have worked. The team would like Burford to be good at everything, but he just hasn't executed his run blocking assignments well at all (and had a couple of brain farts in stunt and blitz pickup). So they play Brunskill on a lot of downs. But Burford gets a lot of passing down snaps because he can block a decent player one on one most of the time and Brunskill cannot. First team I've seen with a switch-hitting RG, lol. Burford was a quality run blocker as a LT in college. You'd hope that he'd get it eventually.

It's definitely a different approach that I don't think I've seen before, but I'm not against it. I think Burford will keep getting better in the run game and will be a much better player going into next year with this experience and a full offseason in a pro strength and conditioning program. 

I'm also not opposed to bringing back Brunskill next year to be our utility guy. He can backup pretty much any position on the O-Line, but I also want us to bring in some guys in the draft. I wonder how Poe has looked thus far? I know I read he had won some PS player of the week awards early on in the season. If Poe can develop into a quality center, that'd be a huge win for us. 

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So Juice, Warner, Bosa, CMC and Williams are locks to make the Pro Bowl. Who else makes it? Greenlaw and Ward should make it but do they have the name recognition to make it? Hufanga is surprisingly getting a lot of love in DPOY voting which makes no sense to me but nonetheless, that should put him in a decent spot to make it. How about Kittle? He doesn't have the best receiving stats from a TE but he still has solid stats and is a big name. 

We probably get anywhere from 6-8 players making it to the Pro Bowl. 

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6 hours ago, Herodreamer79 said:

49ers need to be careful here. 

i'm scared to death Purdy's gonna get hurt. i don't trust Brendal, Sudfeld or McFlinchey

McGlinchey is definitely the weak link in pass protection, but I wouldn't be so quick to be down on Brendel or our guards. According to PFF, the interior of our Oline has combined for 54 pressures and 2 sacks given up this year. For refence, one of the Vikings guards has given up 51 pressures by himself and there are 7 other interior guys that have given up 30 or more pressures this season. 

Our pass protection has actually been a strength of the team this year, more so than the run blocking for some reason. 

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