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Week 16: San Francisco 49ers vs Washington Commanders


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44 minutes ago, NFL Network said:

Yes I remember but that average was inflated due to some games where the Niners scored alot of points and they also got some of those points from non offensive TD's. And by the time the playoffs rolled around they couldn't trust Jimmy to throw the ball and it caught up to them in the SB.

They had 5 defensive tds. That puts the offensive points per game at 28.

But if we are going to contextualize, lets go a little further. 

They played in two rainstorms, the Washington game particularly brutal. Pretty safe bet that the team would have scored more than 9 against one of the worst defenses in the league, right? Can't add the points back, but if you take out just that game, we are back at 29 points again and there's still a rainstorm game in Baltimore. Purdy hasn't had to deal with that. Purdy has also already had 4 scoring drives go 10 yards or less. Jimmy G had 5 of those all year that year. Jimmy didn't have CMC, nor did he have Aiyuk. 

 I would agree that if you're putting up that many points you're going to be really good, but we aren't doing something that we haven't done since the years of Young gone by. This isn't meant to be crapping on Purdy, but we seriously did this 3 years ago with Jimmy and there have been a substantial number of people who were ready to move on (and not just because of the injuries). 

We haven't rolled into the playoffs with Purdy yet. He can easily crap the bed. Purdy on the road being able to throw the ball is a huuuuuuuuuuuuuuge thing for me. That's a big test. Its really hard to win in spite of your QB...we learned that with Jimmy. I have no idea if Purdy is going to be that burden or not. This is the biggest issue I have with some of what I see from people right now. So much emphasis on this very small sample and acting like doing it now means he's going to do it in the playoffs, etc.  We just did this with Jimmy too after 2017 where everyone thought he was the second coming and then turned into just an okay starting QB. 

As the sample size grows, it becomes more and more indicative of what is reality.  There are adjustments, adjustments to the adjustments ,etc. The sample is way too small for both Trey and Brock to mean anything at this point. Then there's situational football. Being a great regular season QB doesn't mean you're a great postseason QB, etc. 

There are still so many milestones for both Lance and Purdy to clear. Enjoy the ride we are on right now, but long term does it really mean anything yet? No, I don't think so. 

Also, "The average was inflated due to games where they scored a lot of points" is an unserious comment. 

 

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41 minutes ago, Forge said:

They had 5 defensive tds. That puts the offensive points per game at 28.

But if we are going to contextualize, lets go a little further. 

They played in two rainstorms, the Washington game particularly brutal. Pretty safe bet that the team would have scored more than 9 against one of the worst defenses in the league, right? Can't add the points back, but if you take out just that game, we are back at 29 points again and there's still a rainstorm game in Baltimore. Purdy hasn't had to deal with that. Purdy has also already had 4 scoring drives go 10 yards or less. Jimmy G had 5 of those all year that year. Jimmy didn't have CMC, nor did he have Aiyuk. 

 I would agree that if you're putting up that many points you're going to be really good, but we aren't doing something that we haven't done since the years of Young gone by. This isn't meant to be crapping on Purdy, but we seriously did this 3 years ago with Jimmy and there have been a substantial number of people who were ready to move on (and not just because of the injuries). 

We haven't rolled into the playoffs with Purdy yet. He can easily crap the bed. Purdy on the road being able to throw the ball is a huuuuuuuuuuuuuuge thing for me. That's a big test. Its really hard to win in spite of your QB...we learned that with Jimmy. I have no idea if Purdy is going to be that burden or not. This is the biggest issue I have with some of what I see from people right now. So much emphasis on this very small sample and acting like doing it now means he's going to do it in the playoffs, etc.  We just did this with Jimmy too after 2017 where everyone thought he was the second coming and then turned into just an okay starting QB. 

As the sample size grows, it becomes more and more indicative of what is reality.  There are adjustments, adjustments to the adjustments ,etc. The sample is way too small for both Trey and Brock to mean anything at this point. Then there's situational football. Being a great regular season QB doesn't mean you're a great postseason QB, etc. 

There are still so many milestones for both Lance and Purdy to clear. Enjoy the ride we are on right now, but long term does it really mean anything yet? No, I don't think so. 

Also, "The average was inflated due to games where they scored a lot of points" is an unserious comment. 

 

I remember in 2019 the Niners scored piled on points with Jimmy being basically average e.g. the Carolina game when they dropped 50 or so, as well as the Arizona game where I think the Niners defense kept forcing a bunch of turnovers and took over on a short field. The bottom line is Jimmy had the offense scoring at that same alarming rate in the playoffs as the regular season they don't trade 3 first round picks for Trey Lance just over a year later. All we needed was one more scoring drive from Jimmy in the SB and he couldn't deliver and thus his fate was sealed by that playoff run.

Also I by no means am anointing Trey Lance as I'm just surprised from the results I've seen from him as opposed to what I expected to see when Jimmy went down in the Miami game and thus has far exceeded my expectations which is good. Do I expect the Niners to win a SB this year with Purdy? Hell no but the same was true with either Lance or Jimmy as the starter. Since the end of October I've said the only way the Niners win a SB this year is basically the same way the 2000 Ravens did with Trent Dilfer and that great defense but I'm not sure the Niners defense can pull that out this year that Ravens 2000 team was an exception to the norm.

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What are the greatest QB teases in NFL history??? That might be a topic in the other section of the forum to talk over.

2013 Nick Foles throwing 27 TDs and 2 INTs. Essentially becomes a journeyman later on. Won a SB at least. 

2017 Jimmy G going 5-0 on a 1-10 team. Jimmy never lived up to that hype afterward. 

2002 Marc Bulger looking like dynamite for the Rams going 6-1 in his starts. Went on to have a decent career, but never lived up to that initial sample when he filled in for an injured Kurt Warner and Jaime Martin as a third-stringer. 

2002 Chad Pennington fills in for Vinny Testaverde helping turn around the 1-4 Jets, and leading them to a 9-7 finish with a playoff berth. Chad had a career-high 22 passing TDs with only 6 INTs in only 12 starts. However, while he had an overall decent career in the NFL, he never matched that initial production, and injuries were a constant companion. 

2017 Carson Wentz was an MVP candidate until a late-season injury derailed his season. His backup then wins the Super Bowl, and for whatever reason Carson was just never the same mentally, and physically. He's now basically in journeyman territory after multiple chances on other squads. 

Who are some others? Mark Sanchez? Won four road playoff games, and was on the cusp of glory with back to back AFC title game appearances. Vince Ferragamo helped a terrible Rams team get to a SB, looked great in 1980, then fell off. Rick Mirer looked promising for the Seahawks his rookie year, but then plummeted afterward. 

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3 minutes ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

What are the greatest QB teases in NFL history??? That might be a topic in the other section of the forum to talk over.

2013 Nick Foles throwing 27 TDs and 2 INTs. Essentially becomes a journeyman later on. Won a SB at least. 

2017 Jimmy G going 5-0 on a 1-10 team. Jimmy never lived up to that hype afterward. 

2002 Marc Bulger looking like dynamite for the Rams going 6-1 in his starts. Went on to have a decent career, but never lived up to that initial sample when he filled in for an injured Kurt Warner and Jaime Martin as a third-stringer. 

2002 Chad Pennington fills in for Vinny Testaverde helping turn around the 1-4 Jets, and leading them to a 9-7 finish with a playoff berth. Chad had a career-high 22 passing TDs with only 6 INTs in only 12 starts. However, while he had an overall decent career in the NFL, he never matched that initial production, and injuries were a constant companion. 

2017 Carson Wentz was an MVP candidate until a late-season injury derailed his season. His backup then wins the Super Bowl, and for whatever reason Carson was just never the same mentally, and physically. He's now basically in journeyman territory after multiple chances on other squads. 

Who are some others? Mark Sanchez? Won four road playoff games, and was on the cusp of glory with back to back AFC title game appearances. Vince Ferragamo helped a terrible Rams team get to a SB, looked great in 1980, then fell off. Rick Mirer looked promising for the Seahawks his rookie year, but then plummeted afterward. 

Love this question

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10 minutes ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

What are the greatest QB teases in NFL history??? That might be a topic in the other section of the forum to talk over.

2013 Nick Foles throwing 27 TDs and 2 INTs. Essentially becomes a journeyman later on. Won a SB at least. 

2017 Jimmy G going 5-0 on a 1-10 team. Jimmy never lived up to that hype afterward. 

2002 Marc Bulger looking like dynamite for the Rams going 6-1 in his starts. Went on to have a decent career, but never lived up to that initial sample when he filled in for an injured Kurt Warner and Jaime Martin as a third-stringer. 

2002 Chad Pennington fills in for Vinny Testaverde helping turn around the 1-4 Jets, and leading them to a 9-7 finish with a playoff berth. Chad had a career-high 22 passing TDs with only 6 INTs in only 12 starts. However, while he had an overall decent career in the NFL, he never matched that initial production, and injuries were a constant companion. 

2017 Carson Wentz was an MVP candidate until a late-season injury derailed his season. His backup then wins the Super Bowl, and for whatever reason Carson was just never the same mentally, and physically. He's now basically in journeyman territory after multiple chances on other squads. 

Who are some others? Mark Sanchez? Won four road playoff games, and was on the cusp of glory with back to back AFC title game appearances. Vince Ferragamo helped a terrible Rams team get to a SB, looked great in 1980, then fell off. Rick Mirer looked promising for the Seahawks his rookie year, but then plummeted afterward. 

Derek Anderson comes to mind. Tommy Maddox maybe? Chris Chandler. The two years or so that Rich Gannon was a thing.

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Just now, JIllg said:

Derek Anderson comes to mind. Tommy Maddox maybe? Chris Chandler. The two years or so that Rich Gannon was a thing.

Oh yeah Derek Anderson of course. Gannon I'd probably give a pass since he was good for like 4 years including an MVP appearance. I think age just finally nuked his late career surge. 

Maybe Andy Dalton, and Derek Carr. Both had seasons where they looked like MVPs, got hurt, and never lived up to that level of play afterward. 

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12 minutes ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

What are the greatest QB teases in NFL history??? That might be a topic in the other section of the forum to talk over.

2013 Nick Foles throwing 27 TDs and 2 INTs. Essentially becomes a journeyman later on. Won a SB at least. 

2017 Jimmy G going 5-0 on a 1-10 team. Jimmy never lived up to that hype afterward. 

2002 Marc Bulger looking like dynamite for the Rams going 6-1 in his starts. Went on to have a decent career, but never lived up to that initial sample when he filled in for an injured Kurt Warner and Jaime Martin as a third-stringer. 

2002 Chad Pennington fills in for Vinny Testaverde helping turn around the 1-4 Jets, and leading them to a 9-7 finish with a playoff berth. Chad had a career-high 22 passing TDs with only 6 INTs in only 12 starts. However, while he had an overall decent career in the NFL, he never matched that initial production, and injuries were a constant companion. 

2017 Carson Wentz was an MVP candidate until a late-season injury derailed his season. His backup then wins the Super Bowl, and for whatever reason Carson was just never the same mentally, and physically. He's now basically in journeyman territory after multiple chances on other squads. 

Who are some others? Mark Sanchez? Won four road playoff games, and was on the cusp of glory with back to back AFC title game appearances. Vince Ferragamo helped a terrible Rams team get to a SB, looked great in 1980, then fell off. Rick Mirer looked promising for the Seahawks his rookie year, but then plummeted afterward. 

FYI 2017 Jimmy going 5-0 wasn't that impressive b/c he threw a lot of dropped Int's and thus defenders bailed him out with the dropped passes. I also never took Jimmy's bait in 2019 as I knew he was the downfall heading into that playoffs and it showed up against KC in the SB.

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2 minutes ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

Oh yeah Derek Anderson of course. Gannon I'd probably give a pass since he was good for like 4 years including an MVP appearance. I think age just finally nuked his late career surge. 

Maybe Andy Dalton, and Derek Carr. Both had seasons where they looked like MVPs, got hurt, and never lived up to that level of play afterward. 

How about 2000 & 2004 Dante Culpepper as anything in between and after those 2 seasons were not that great. Actually after 2004 Randy Moss left the Vikings Dante was toast.

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4 minutes ago, NFL Network said:

FYI 2017 Jimmy going 5-0 wasn't that impressive b/c he threw a lot of dropped Int's and thus defenders bailed him out with the dropped passes. I also never took Jimmy's bait in 2019 as I knew he was the downfall heading into that playoffs and it showed up against KC in the SB.

Errrm nope, not really. You're misremembering. Via PFF:

Quote

It’s been a small sample, but Garoppolo has had an excellent start to his career, particularly an 86.6 overall grade that ranked fourth in the NFL last season. He had the highest percentage of positively-graded throws in 2017, despite ranking only 39th in big-time throw percentage. Garoppolo also did a fine job of taking care of the ball with the fifth-lowest percentage of turnover-worthy plays.

https://www.ninersnation.com/2018/8/7/17659520/pro-football-focus-rankings-jimmy-garoppolo-quarterback-49ers

Yeah I know everyone isn't buddy-buddy with PFF, but I think even the random yahoo could tell in those 5 games he wasn't really putting the ball in harm's way too much. He was also their highest graded passer under pressure. 

Edited by TecmoSuperJoe
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2 hours ago, JIllg said:

63% is right about at the Josh Allen expectation line. I could see a style argument for Purdy over theoretical Lance at that point if Purdy keeps playing like he did against Washington and Tampa - the accuracy is a good fit for our YAC weapons and he hit the open shots down the field that Jimmy doesn’t take often enough. Purdy was legit a plus quarterback in those games by my eye. It’s a great problem to theoretically have, lol.

Good ole Theo Lance, unknown commodity.  This season has to play out before we really can speculate on what will happen next year with the QB position.  I'm not ready to give up on Lance, but he needs to take a big step to overtake Purdy, based on how Purdy has played thus far. 

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54 minutes ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

What are the greatest QB teases in NFL history??? That might be a topic in the other section of the forum to talk over.

2013 Nick Foles throwing 27 TDs and 2 INTs. Essentially becomes a journeyman later on. Won a SB at least. 

2017 Jimmy G going 5-0 on a 1-10 team. Jimmy never lived up to that hype afterward. 

2002 Marc Bulger looking like dynamite for the Rams going 6-1 in his starts. Went on to have a decent career, but never lived up to that initial sample when he filled in for an injured Kurt Warner and Jaime Martin as a third-stringer. 

2002 Chad Pennington fills in for Vinny Testaverde helping turn around the 1-4 Jets, and leading them to a 9-7 finish with a playoff berth. Chad had a career-high 22 passing TDs with only 6 INTs in only 12 starts. However, while he had an overall decent career in the NFL, he never matched that initial production, and injuries were a constant companion. 

2017 Carson Wentz was an MVP candidate until a late-season injury derailed his season. His backup then wins the Super Bowl, and for whatever reason Carson was just never the same mentally, and physically. He's now basically in journeyman territory after multiple chances on other squads. 

Who are some others? Mark Sanchez? Won four road playoff games, and was on the cusp of glory with back to back AFC title game appearances. Vince Ferragamo helped a terrible Rams team get to a SB, looked great in 1980, then fell off. Rick Mirer looked promising for the Seahawks his rookie year, but then plummeted afterward. 

Elvis Gerbac destroying the Cowboys in 1995.

 

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