Texans @ Tennessee - Christmas Eve GDT

[Marco79]

3 hours ago, Pastor Dillon said:

what’s crazy is that with as bad as our offense has been this year and as bad as our roster talent is, we’ve been really close to being a 6 or 7 win team, which would still be alive for the division. 

It’s wild, the Texans have lost/tied 5 games where they were leading in the 4th quarter. 

3 hours ago, ET80 said:

What honestly bothers me? Most of our losses are in the 2nd half or 4th quarter. When you have a defensive HC, repeated late game meltdowns shouldn’t be happening. Somewhere in there, Lovie needed to find out why his defense buckles late in the game.

I think it’s more on the offense. Lovie’s defense has had some let downs and isn’t blameless, but more often than not the offense couldn’t move the ball in the 4th quarter and gave the ball away which left the defense in tough spots. If we look at the 5 games they were leading in the fourth:

Colts - Texans give up 17 points in the fourth, but the offense couldn’t move the ball and the strip sack of Mills gave the Colts the ball on the Texans own 25 which allowed them to get back in the game. Then in OT, the defense did their job and didn’t allow the Colts to score but the Texans offense couldn’t produce anything themselves despite having the chance too. 

Broncos - Defense gave up 10 points in the fourth, but the offense couldn’t counter despite having the chance to. You can blame the defense for giving up 10 points in the fourth, but also you can’t expect to win a game when your offense scores 9 points. 

Bears - Mills throws an interception with a minute and half left in his and the Bears don’t have to move the ball to be able to hit the game winning field goal. 

Raiders - Texans are up 20-17 in the 4th and then everything unravels when Mills throws a pick six and then the defense can’t stop Josh Jacobs.

Cowboys - Defense gifts the offense the ball on the Cowboys 5 yard line after an interception with 7 minutes left, but the offense can’t do anything with it. You can’t give good teams multiple chances to make comebacks, because they will take advantage of them and that’s what the Cowboys did with their second chance due to the ineptitude of the offense.

Chiefs - Defense holds the Chiefs offense in OT to force a punt only for Mills to fumble the game away.

Except for the Raiders game, the defense held up and gave the offense a chance to win the game, but the offense could never capitalize. The Texans defense is average and can come up with a stop, but you can’t expect them to be perfect and make stop after stop when the offense can’t do anything on their end.

 

[ET80]

4 minutes ago, Marco79 said:

It’s wild, the Texans have lost/tied 5 games where they were leading in the 4th quarter. 

I think it’s more on the offense. Lovie’s defense has had some let downs and isn’t blameless, but more often than not the offense couldn’t move the ball in the 4th quarter and gave the ball away which left the defense in tough spots. If we look at the 5 games they were leading in the fourth:

Colts - Texans give up 17 points in the fourth, but the offense couldn’t move the ball and the strip sack of Mills gave the Colts the ball on the Texans own 25 which allowed them to get back in the game. Then in OT, the defense did their job and didn’t allow the Colts to score but the Texans offense couldn’t produce anything themselves despite having the chance too. 

Broncos - Defense gave up 10 points in the fourth, but the offense couldn’t counter despite having the chance to. You can blame the defense for giving up 10 points in the fourth, but also you can’t expect to win a game when your offense scores 9 points. 

Bears - Mills throws an interception with a minute and half left in his and the Bears don’t have to move the ball to be able to hit the game winning field goal. 

Raiders - Texans are up 20-17 in the 4th and then everything unravels when Mills throws a pick six and then the defense can’t stop Josh Jacobs.

Cowboys - Defense gifts the offense the ball on the Cowboys 5 yard line after an interception with 7 minutes left, but the offense can’t do anything with it. You can’t give good teams multiple chances to make comebacks, because they will take advantage of them and that’s what the Cowboys did with their second chance due to the ineptitude of the offense.

Chiefs - Defense holds the Chiefs offense in OT to force a punt only for Mills to fumble the game away.

Except for the Raiders game, the defense held up and gave the offense a chance to win the game, but the offense could never capitalize. The Texans defense is average and can come up with a stop, but you can’t expect them to be perfect and make stop after stop when the offense can’t do anything on their end.

 

Wow - I didn't go game by game, but you're absolutely right on this one. The defense does enough, the offense doesn’t capitalize.

[lumberjackchris]

3 hours ago, Texansfan713 said:

I'm going to be pissed if the Bears trade the 1st pick for a kings ransom to a team looking to take a QB in front of us.

That guy just isn’t there this year though. I think teams are learning to not reach for a QB. Last year was indicative of that. And how many teams on paper need a QB right now outside of us?

[Texansfan713]

41 minutes ago, lumberjackchris said:

That guy just isn’t there this year though. I think teams are learning to not reach for a QB. Last year was indicative of that. And how many teams on paper need a QB right now outside of us?

Yall underselling Bryce Young short.  No pun intended.  He has legit franchise QB potential and the teams needing a qb besides us that has first round picks:

 

Seahawks-  Geno is not the answer long term despite him having a good season this year.

Lions-  Goff aint their future

Colts

Panthers

Falcons- Not sold on Ridder

 

Saints dont have a 1st round pick and they need a QB as well.

[ET80]

5 hours ago, Texansfan713 said:

Yall underselling Bryce Young short.  No pun intended.  He has legit franchise QB potential

Exactly - can he bust? Sure, everyone can bust. But those who discount him because of his height are really being lazy on this one. If he was 6' 3" 235, everyone on this board would be freaking out about this opportunity.

Nobody can give me a discernable flaw in his game outside of "he's short" (and then advocate for the edge rusher who weighs less than Derrick Henry... with a straight face, no less). And you know why nobody can really give us a flaw? He doesn't have many, outside of typical things a rookie QB couldn't work out of with time and work ethic. He checks every single box when you watch him play and not rely on CBS Sports. 

I hope Caserio does his homework, because if he does, he will see that there is one clear cut guy to take. If he ends up taking Stroud, I'll find a way to justify it, but will no doubt be proven right when Young turns out to be the better QB. If he takes Levis or one of the non-QBs? Well, then I put too much faith in his ability.

[lumberjackchris]

1 hour ago, ET80 said:

Exactly - can he bust? Sure, everyone can bust. But those who discount him because of his height are really being lazy on this one. If he was 6' 3" 235, everyone on this board would be freaking out about this opportunity.

Nobody can give me a discernable flaw in his game outside of "he's short" (and then advocate for the edge rusher who weighs less than Derrick Henry... with a straight face, no less). And you know why nobody can really give us a flaw? He doesn't have many, outside of typical things a rookie QB couldn't work out of with time and work ethic. He checks every single box when you watch him play and not rely on CBS Sports. 

I hope Caserio does his homework, because if he does, he will see that there is one clear cut guy to take. If he ends up taking Stroud, I'll find a way to justify it, but will no doubt be proven right when Young turns out to be the better QB. If he takes Levis or one of the non-QBs? Well, then I put too much faith in his ability.

I’m honestly good with Young, Stroud or Levis. All have their pros and cons 

[PAtexansFAN_99]

1 hour ago, lumberjackchris said:

I’m honestly good with Young, Stroud or Levis. All have their pros and cons 

Give me Jayden Daniels, Dorian Thompson-Robinson or Max Duggan in the 4th. Those guys all have the athleticism and the arm talent to possibly develop into starters in my opinion. I think those are similar gambles to drafting someone like Levis or Richardson, and you don't necessarily need to spend a day 1 or 2 pick to get any of those guys. 

This seems like a deep QB class which might serve to devalue guys like Levis or Richardson. Honestly, I can see a scenario where Young and Stroud are the only QBs to go in the first round, maybe someone trades up to get the 5 year contract on a guy like Levis or Richardson, but I think probably one of those guys could be available at the top of the second round just because of supply and demand. Just like last year, a lot of ppl wanted us to take Breece Hall in the second round, but obviously the correct move was to wait because guys like Dameon Pierce would be available on Day 3. 

[Pastor Dillon]

1 hour ago, PAtexansFAN_99 said:

Give me Jayden Daniels, Dorian Thompson-Robinson or Max Duggan in the 4th. Those guys all have the athleticism and the arm talent to possibly develop into starters in my opinion. I think those are similar gambles to drafting someone like Levis or Richardson, and you don't necessarily need to spend a day 1 or 2 pick to get any of those guys. 

This seems like a deep QB class which might serve to devalue guys like Levis or Richardson. Honestly, I can see a scenario where Young and Stroud are the only QBs to go in the first round, maybe someone trades up to get the 5 year contract on a guy like Levis or Richardson, but I think probably one of those guys could be available at the top of the second round just because of supply and demand. Just like last year, a lot of ppl wanted us to take Breece Hall in the second round, but obviously the correct move was to wait because guys like Dameon Pierce would be available on Day 3. 

QBs outside the first round rarely make franchise QBs. If you look outside the 2nd it gets even more rare. In fact nearly every team that has a long term starter at QB, drafted them in the top 40 or didn’t draft them at all. 
 

there’s the Kirk cousins and Dak prescotts of the world and the occasional Russell wilson but those guys are rare and impossible to scout for. 

[ET80]

7 hours ago, lumberjackchris said:

I’m honestly good with Young, Stroud or Levis. All have their pros and cons 

Levis just doesn’t look like he knows what’s going on - I get there were injury concerns, but his processing seemed way off whenever I watched him, like he needs 6-7 seconds to figure everything out. 

I'm going to stand by the notion that he's Christian Hackenberg v 2.0, he's going to get a GM fired...

[ET80]

4 hours ago, Pastor Dillon said:

QBs outside the first round rarely make franchise QBs.

And, specific to the AFC - Tua, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, Pat Mahomes, Justin Herbert - the elite QBs in division are exclusively 1st round guys.

In essence... the only way to the SB in the AFC is through a few of these guys. You're going to have to beat more than one of these, and I doubt the successfulness of such an attempt with a sub standard QB.

[PAtexansFAN_99]

8 hours ago, ET80 said:

And, specific to the AFC - Tua, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, Pat Mahomes, Justin Herbert - the elite QBs in division are exclusively 1st round guys.

In essence... the only way to the SB in the AFC is through a few of these guys. You're going to have to beat more than one of these, and I doubt the successfulness of such an attempt with a sub standard QB.

Couldn't the argument be made that teams are just impatient about qb, and that later round guys just aren't afforded the opportunity to develop in most cases bc only 1 player gets reps at qb? It just seems superstitious almost to attribute qb success to where they were drafted. Most of them need multiple opportunities to fail, opportunities those players are generally afforded BC they were first round picks, but if you provide a later round player with those same opportunities (and build around them as you would do with a first round "franchise" qb) I think there's some really good quarterbacks you can find. Also, ultimately, those qbs you need to go through also have championship caliber rosters attached to them. You need to go through those too, you can't win a sb without one of those either. 

[Texansfan713]

Despite being coached by Bill O'Brien for 2 seasons Young was still a legit QB.  That's why im not concerned about him if Pep is his offensive coordinator.

[ET80]

4 hours ago, PAtexansFAN_99 said:

Couldn't the argument be made that teams are just impatient about qb, and that later round guys just aren't afforded the opportunity to develop in most cases bc only 1 player gets reps at qb? It just seems superstitious almost to attribute qb success to where they were drafted.

But the evidence to this is overwhelming at this point. For every Dak Prescott, there is a Deshone Kizer, Kellen Mond, Kyle Trask, Drew Lock, Nick Mullins, Josh Dobbs, Brad Kaaya, etc. QBs selected outside of the top 64 are most likely to not perform well when called upon, the data is downright impossible to be ignored. Plenty of these guys got a chance and didn't do anything with it - and it's not a coincidence these guys didn’t get selected top 64. 

As far as time to develop - this league is results driven and win now. If you don’t show immediate and exponential improvement, you’re gone (regardless of round taken). Coaches who “let a guy develop” are usually fired while they’re waiting for the guy to develop. The Return on Investment (ROI) needs to be near immediate. That’s just how fast the NFL is, and nothing indicates going slower is a benefit to anyone. The Texans are probably the last team who can take it slow, given our recent incompetency.

4 hours ago, PAtexansFAN_99 said:

Most of them need multiple opportunities to fail, opportunities those players are generally afforded BC they were first round picks, but if you provide a later round player with those same opportunities (and build around them as you would do with a first round "franchise" qb) I think there's some really good quarterbacks you can find.

I need examples of this actually happening. I count two - Prescott and Cousins (and both of them started off red hot once they got in). You can’t realistically expect to build on a model that is inconsistent at best, rare at worst.

Teams don’t just evaluate players on the roster on Sundays. They observe these QBs in practice, they observe them in drills, in OTAs, in training camp, during the offseason; These guys are evaluated MORE on non-gameday situations, so it’s not as if they’re not getting reps and evaluated, they’re just failing on that as well.

4 hours ago, PAtexansFAN_99 said:

Also, ultimately, those qbs you need to go through also have championship caliber rosters attached to them.

Those rosters were built *around* them - Tua got his two WRs after he was in Miami, Allen got his WR after he was in Buffalo, Burrow got his WRs after he was in Cincy, Lamar got his WRs and RBs after he was in Baltimore, Trevor Lawrence is STILL waiting for his WRs - the only two who had his team built prior to getting there was Mahomes and Herbert; One has yet to play in a playoff game and one is a multi MVP and SB winner, so there’s really nothing saying that you have to build the team FIRST.

I am of the mindset that a vet QB mentoring rookies is far more valuable than a rookie QB being mentored by vets - a WR knows what he’s supposed to do, an OL knows what he’s supposed to do. A QB needs to know what EVERYONE is supposed to do. So, he’s the best option in mentoring people in the right direction, not vice versa.

[PAtexansFAN_99]

If Tua was a 3rd round pick he'd have been benched a long time ago. His play throughout the first couple years of his career, and the injuries, DID NOT justify this third opportunity. Also, there's nothing particularly spectacular about Tua's game. I believe you can find a similar style player in the 3rd round most years. 

Also have a few other examples of at least decent, startable quarterbacks taken later..

Jacoby Brissett, Nick Foles, Trent Edwards, Matt Schaub, Chris Simms, Josh McCown, Rich Gannon.. There's also Jimmy G and Drew Brees who were second rounders, but still, not firsts. Trent Green was an 8th round pick. Matt Hasselbeck 6th round. Mark Brunell 5th round. Brad Johnson 9th round. Marc Bulger and David Garrard were 4th and 6th round picks respectively. Jake Plummer was a 2nd rounder. Andy Dalton had a decent little stretch. Derek Carr was a 2nd. Brett Favre was a 2nd. These are all guys I've seen since I started watching in 06. It's happened plenty of times. 

Really, at the bottom of this line of thinking is the fact that I still think Mills has the potential to develop into the quarterback we need. To me, not going to dredge up a bunch of advanced statistics to support this opinion but, he's played pretty well these last 3 weeks, or at least shown me enough to where I'm not so willing to simply replace him. I said after the Cowboys game that if he finished the season with 5 consecutive positive performances, I think we've got to let it ride at least to some extent. 

I am looking for a QB bc I believe the scenario where Mills never gets over the hump is a very real possibility and I think we need to be prepared for that scenario, but I'm not for wasting a first round pick when we've already got a young ascending player at the position. That's why I think we should hedge with a later round pick, especially considering how deep this year's QB class is looking. If Mills plays like **** these last two weeks, to me, I'll be able to get on board with a QB in the first much more easily, but I'm expecting him to play well and us to win these last two games. 

Also, as I've said many times, I don't expect Bryce Young would be playing much better with these receiving options we've got. Philip Dorsett doesn't exactly have the biggest catch radius of all time. I wonder how Watson might've looked coming out the gate if Hopkins hadn't been there to bail him out time and time again. When that stat flashed during the Cowboys game about how if you add Mills College snaps to his NFL snaps, he'd still have fewer snaps than Prescott had in college, that was eye opening I thought. Mills has played pretty damn well if you consider how little football he's actually played in his life, and I think it's reasonable to expect him to continue to improve with more experience. Also, he's just got the skill set I'm looking for. He's got the size, the accuracy, the pocket presence, the wheels, he's got all the parts. 

I want to hedge our bet on Mills, not replace him. I think we can do that later in the draft, and potentially find another Davis Mills type to come in when he fails again. 

[ET80]

5 hours ago, PAtexansFAN_99 said:

I want to hedge our bet on Mills, not replace him. I think we can do that later in the draft, and potentially find another Davis Mills type to come in when he fails again. 

You’re on an island on this one. I’m not going to convince you - despite providing hard data completely refuting your belief that Davis Mills is even a semi competent QB (EVERY statistical measure has Mills as one of the worst QBs in football, even in games where you claim he played well). 

We’ll just agree to disagree.