Texans @ Tennessee - Christmas Eve GDT

[Pastor Dillon]

18 hours ago, PAtexansFAN_99 said:

Also have a few other examples of at least decent, startable quarterbacks taken later..

Jacoby Brissett, Nick Foles, Trent Edwards, Matt Schaub, Chris Simms, Josh McCown, Rich Gannon.. There's also Jimmy G and Drew Brees who were second rounders, but still, not firsts. Trent Green was an 8th round pick. Matt Hasselbeck 6th round. Mark Brunell 5th round. Brad Johnson 9th round. Marc Bulger and David Garrard were 4th and 6th round picks respectively. Jake Plummer was a 2nd rounder. Andy Dalton had a decent little stretch. Derek Carr was a 2nd. Brett Favre was a 2nd. These are all guys I've seen since I started watching in 06. It's happened plenty of times. 

You just named a whole bunch of guys who were not 1st round QBs, that’s all you did. You didn’t name guys who won super bowls, or even consistently had teams in contention for super bowls. You named Foles, who won a ring as a back up QB that got hot for a run and it was magical but he’s failed at being a starting level QB for years. Brad Johnson got a ring for being a game manager who was being carried by one of the greatest defenses of all time. And then you mentioned brett Farve and Brees, two of the greatest of all time, so I’ll give you those

but most of the guys you’ve listed are not who you can turn a franchise around with, they are who can win a few games if they have an elite roster around them, which we clearly don’t have. 

[LORK88]

27 minutes ago, Pastor Dillon said:

You just named a whole bunch of guys who were not 1st round QBs, that’s all you did. You didn’t name guys who won super bowls, or even consistently had teams in contention for super bowls. You named Foles, who won a ring as a back up QB that got hot for a run and it was magical but he’s failed at being a starting level QB for years. Brad Johnson got a ring for being a game manager who was being carried by one of the greatest defenses of all time. And then you mentioned brett Farve and Brees, two of the greatest of all time, so I’ll give you those

but most of the guys you’ve listed are not who you can turn a franchise around with, they are who can win a few games if they have an elite roster around them, which we clearly don’t have. 

I posted this earlier this year, but I feel like it's worth re-posting given the discussion. Below are the QBs the past 10 years drafted day 2. 

 

2021: Kyle Trask, Davis Mills, Kellen Mond

2020: Jalen Hurts

2019: Drew Lock, Will Grier

2018: Mason Rudolph

2017: Deshone Kizer, Davis Webb, CJ Beathard

2016: Christian Hackenburg, Jacoby Brissett, Cody Kessler

2015: Garrett Grayson, Sean Mannion

2014: Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo

2013: Geno Smith, Mike Glennon

2012: Brock Osweiler, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles

2011: Andy Dalton, Collin Kaepernick, Ryan Mallett

[ET80]

45 minutes ago, Pastor Dillon said:

You just named a whole bunch of guys who were not 1st round QBs, that’s all you did. You didn’t name guys who won super bowls, or even consistently had teams in contention for super bowls. You named Foles, who won a ring as a back up QB that got hot for a run and it was magical but he’s failed at being a starting level QB for years. Brad Johnson got a ring for being a game manager who was being carried by one of the greatest defenses of all time. And then you mentioned brett Farve and Brees, two of the greatest of all time, so I’ll give you those

but most of the guys you’ve listed are not who you can turn a franchise around with, they are who can win a few games if they have an elite roster around them, which we clearly don’t have. 

I’ll take it a step further - most of the names listed are REALLY bad. Brissett is below average, Edwards is horrendous and lost his job to guys like Kelly Holcomb and a 40 year old Doug Flutie, Chris Simms was absolutely horrible as a pro (even in college, Major Applewhite was the better QB at UT, but Simms had a famous daddy) Josh McCown was literally a career backup and Rich Gannon needed two HoF WRs to get two seasons of good football. (Gannon was also drafted in 1987 - so over the past 35 years, we have roughly 11-12 guys who were not top 64 guys who ultimately succeeded).

On that note - I also specifically said top 64 picks, so those 2nd round guys listed really don’t apply (also - Brees was pick 31 - so is he REALLY a 2nd round pick, or a guy picked before the NFL had 32 teams?) You can find a good 2nd round QB but that usually comes in a year where talent at other positions is so deep, QBs get pushed down (which really isn’t this year, the talent tapers off around 25). 

25 minutes ago, LORK88 said:

2021: Kyle Trask, Davis Mills, Kellen Mond

2020: Jalen Hurts

2019: Drew Lock, Will Grier

2018: Mason Rudolph

2017: Deshone Kizer, Davis Webb, CJ Beathard

2016: Christian Hackenburg, Jacoby Brissett, Cody Kessler

2015: Garrett Grayson, Sean Mannion

2014: Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo

2013: Geno Smith, Mike Glennon

2012: Brock Osweiler, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles

2011: Andy Dalton, Collin Kaepernick, Ryan Mallett

Outside of Hurts - none of these names really bring in a sense of confidence. 

[Blaze]

3 minutes ago, ET80 said:

I’ll take it a step further - most of the names listed are REALLY bad. Brissett is below average, Edwards is horrendous and lost his job to guys like Kelly Holcomb and a 40 year old Doug Flutie, Chris Simms was absolutely horrible as a pro (even in college, Major Applewhite was the better QB at UT, but Simms had a famous daddy) Josh McCown was literally a career backup and Rich Gannon needed two HoF WRs to get two seasons of good football. (Gannon was also drafted in 1987 - so over the past 35 years, we have roughly 11-12 guys who were not top 64 guys who ultimately succeeded).

On that note - I also specifically said top 64 picks, so those 2nd round guys listed really don’t apply (also - Brees was pick 31 - so is he REALLY a 2nd round pick, or a guy picked before the NFL had 32 teams?) You can find a good 2nd round QB but that usually comes in a year where talent at other positions is so deep, QBs get pushed down (which really isn’t this year, the talent tapers off around 25). 

Outside of Hurts - none of these names really bring in a sense of confidence. 

Brock Osweiler doesn't do it for you?

[ET80]

2 minutes ago, Blaze said:

Brock Osweiler doesn't do it for you?

Ironically enough - Osweiler’s stats his one year starting are similar to Davis Mills this season. The only Texans QB with worse numbers than Mills was expansion season David Carr.

[ET80]

2 hours ago, LORK88 said:

I posted this earlier this year, but I feel like it's worth re-posting given the discussion. Below are the QBs the past 10 years drafted day 2. 

 

2021: Kyle Trask, Davis Mills, Kellen Mond

2020: Jalen Hurts

2019: Drew Lock, Will Grier

2018: Mason Rudolph

2017: Deshone Kizer, Davis Webb, CJ Beathard

2016: Christian Hackenburg, Jacoby Brissett, Cody Kessler

2015: Garrett Grayson, Sean Mannion

2014: Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo

2013: Geno Smith, Mike Glennon

2012: Brock Osweiler, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles

2011: Andy Dalton, Collin Kaepernick, Ryan Mallett

I’d be curious on what day 3 QBs look like, the 4-7 round guys. I’d surmise the names would get less and less familiar.

[LORK88]

11 minutes ago, ET80 said:

I’d be curious on what day 3 QBs look like, the 4-7 round guys. I’d surmise the names would get less and less familiar.

Outside of Dak and Kirk Cousins, it's all backups or guys no longer in the league that you say "oh yeah, I forgot about that guy".  The only relevant names I could find were: Gardner Minshew (6th round, 2019), Trevor Siemian (7th round, 2015), Logan Thomas (4th round, 2014), Tom Savage (4th round, 2014), A.J. McCarron (5th round, 2014), and Kirk Cousins (4th round, 2012). 

[ET80]

3 hours ago, LORK88 said:

Outside of Dak and Kirk Cousins, it's all backups or guys no longer in the league that you say "oh yeah, I forgot about that guy".  The only relevant names I could find were: Gardner Minshew (6th round, 2019), Trevor Siemian (7th round, 2015), Logan Thomas (4th round, 2014), Tom Savage (4th round, 2014), A.J. McCarron (5th round, 2014), and Kirk Cousins (4th round, 2012). 

I don't even think I'd consider Thomas, he was so bad at QB he had to permanently move to TE to keep his football dreams going...

[PAtexansFAN_99]

What about this list...

Paxton Lynch, Jamarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Jake Locker, Johnny Manziel, Josh Rosen, Dwayne Haskins, Tim Tebow, EJ Manuel, Brandon Weeden, Matt Leinart, Christian Ponder, JP Losman, Blaine Gabbert, Kyle Boller, David Carr, Joey Harrington, RG III, Blake Bortles, Mitch Trubisky, Rex Grossman, Marcus Mariota, Vince Young, Sam Darnold..

Should the Texans trade for Sam Darnold? That would satisfy the FRP QB thing! lol

My point is that even in the first round, it's just a massive gamble and picking a QB almost never works out. What about Matt Stafford? You could have easily said Stafford never sniffed a Super Bowl appearance and put him into the same category as like a Derek Carr or an Andy Dalton if he hadn't switched to a good team. 

I wonder how many FRP QBs actually worked out for the team that drafted them. Like, would you count Alex Smith as truly being a success for the 49ers? Was Tannehill a good pick for the Dolphins? How many FRP QBs were actually successful on the team that drafted them? 

[ET80]

2 hours ago, PAtexansFAN_99 said:

My point is that even in the first round, it's just a massive gamble and picking a QB almost never works out.

Nobody tell Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Chad Pennington, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, Ben Roethlensberger, Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Matt Stafford, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck. I don't think they got the memo that they weren't supposed to work out.

Let’s try this: You listed 24 bad QBs drafted in the 1st, I listed 14 good QBs drafted in the 1st. We have a 14:24 good QB to bad QB ratio (reduced to roughly 1:2) correct? For every one good QB I listed, you listed roughly two bad QBs (1.7, to be accurate, but that math is funny - so we’ll round up in your favor). Fair?

Now, @LORK88 listed 25 QBs drafted in day 2 over the past 10 years. From that list, I count four that can be qualified as good (Jalen Hurts, Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, Andy Dalton). So that puts us at a 4:21 good QB to bad QB ratio (reduced roughly to 1:5) correct? For every one good QB on that list, you have five bad QBs (5.25 if we’re being accurate, but no such thing as .25 of a QB - so we’ll round down in your favor). Cool? 

Which is riskier? 1:2 or 1:5?

(Hint - it’s not 1:5).

2 hours ago, PAtexansFAN_99 said:

I wonder how many FRP QBs actually worked out for the team that drafted them.

I just listed 14 out of 15 total drafts ('98 to '12). Teams moved on, but to assume the Ravens didn’t succeed with Flacco, the Colts didn’t succeed with Manning or the Bengals didn’t succeed with Palmer is not a good take. Alex Smith took that 49ers team to the NFCCG before he was traded, Stafford took that Lions team to the playoffs a few years after that team went 0-16 (with Calvin Johnson and prime Ndamukong Suh, no less). So yeah, that’s successful.

And… unless Eli, Ben, Luck or A-Rod had secret careers in the CFL, their success was strictly with one team. (Ironically, those four “one team” names represent five SBs - and probably more if Luck didn’t retire prematurely). 14 players, five SBs, and that’s not counting the two won by Manning in Indy/Denver or the one won by Flacco. So, 14 players and 8 SB victories. That’s actually MORE than everyone’s favorite 6th round pick!

I can dig deeper than the 2012 draft if you like, but I think I’m proving my point. I’ll take the risk of drafting a Paxton Lynch in the hopes of landing a Ben Roethlensberger (and Roethlensberger is one of the OK examples, not in the same discussion as a Rodgers or Manning).

In addition - and I know I’ve covered this with you before - other positions bust too. You list QB as if it’s the only position with risk, what if Jalen Carter turns into Amobi Okoye? What if Quentin Johnson is another Laquon Treadwell? What happens when Will Anderson goes all Barkevious Mingo? What then? Well, you have a bust at 1.1 AND you have the worst starting QB in football with Davis Mills. Your energy is so wrapped up in QB busting, I have to wonder if you even assume that the other names mentioned can bust just as easily. The downside of those other names are just as great (if not more, the hit rate on DTs drafted in the 1st isn’t good) but you don’t seem to have that same energy when discussing those players. It’s all upside when you talk about those guys.

Ultimately, I think you’re inadvertently proved our point - we mathematically have better odds at finding a QB in the first than in any other round. It’s a risk (like every other position) but it’s a much smaller risk vs drafting a QB outside the first.

So… thanks?

- BYoung_Texan

[Pastor Dillon]

I’ll say this, it’s pretty rare that the number 1 overall pick at QB busts. Russell might be the only one to just bust in recent memory. 
 

Bradford, Goff and Murray all had some level of success. 

[LORK88]

2 hours ago, ET80 said:

I don't even think I'd consider Thomas, he was so bad at QB he had to permanently move to TE to keep his football dreams going...

I listed him because I thought it was funny that a 4th round QB ended up a decent TE. 

[LORK88]

100% agree with @ET80. I think this article sums it up well. The key thing is we're not arguing that 1st round QBs don't come with risk, we're arguing that there's a significant drop off from day 1 to day 2 to day 3. What's interesting is that if you look at fist overall picks, that's the "safest" of the QB picks.