Top-10 QBs Going into 2023

[Thomas5737]

21 minutes ago, HerbertGOAT said:

Ravens PPG with Lamar (games that he started and finished): 25 (tied for 8th in the league)

Ravens PPG without Lamar: 11.5 (would be 8th worst out of all teams in the 16-game season era)

Not sure that justifies anything. They have a better winning percentage with Huntley starting, which also justifies nothing.

Lamar has 33 TD to 20 int over the last two seasons. He just hasn't looked like a top 10 QB for awhile let alone a top 5.

[Mox]

Mahomes

Allen

Burrow

Herbert

Rodgers

Brady

Dak

Then pick 3 out of: Cousins, Hurts, Jackson, Lawrence, Stafford and Tua.

[AngusMcFife]

On 12/26/2022 at 11:28 AM, Thomas5737 said:

Not sure that justifies anything. They have a better winning percentage with Huntley starting, which also justifies nothing.

Lamar has 33 TD to 20 int over the last two seasons. He just hasn't looked like a top 10 QB for awhile let alone a top 5.

I'm just not sure if you put another one of the supposed top-5 guys like Burrow, Tua, Herbert, or Hurts on an offense with bottom-3 WR group, injured/backup RBs, and bad O-line play (like the Ravens in 2021) they would produce passing numbers much better than Lamar. And they certainly wouldn't put up running numbers like Lamar.  

[Thomas5737]

5 hours ago, AngusMcFife said:

I'm just not sure if you put another one of the supposed top-5 guys like Burrow, Tua, Herbert, or Hurts on an offense with bottom-3 WR group, injured/backup RBs, and bad O-line play (like the Ravens in 2021) they would produce passing numbers much better than Lamar. And they certainly wouldn't put up running numbers like Lamar.  

Burrow and Herbert I would  certainly expect more from (as a passer). Hurts I don't know but would lean towards yes. Tua is certainly not a top 5 QB.

[AngusMcFife]

2 hours ago, Thomas5737 said:

Burrow and Herbert I would  certainly expect more from (as a passer). Hurts I don't know but would lean towards yes. Tua is certainly not a top 5 QB.

That's odd because if you look at Burrow and Herbert's worst years, they are worse than any Lamar season as a passer aside from the half season rookie year at age 21 (Burrow entered at age 24 and Herbert at 22). 

Lamar DVOA:
2019: 34.9%
2020: -0.7%
2021: -2.9%
2022: 5.3%

Burrow:
2020: -7.3
2021: 5.1%
2022: 12.7%

Herbert:
2020: 10.2%
2021: 17.4%
2022: -3.7%

It seems like when Burrow and Herbert are dealing with injured O-line or lack of top shelf WRs (Herbert in 2022, Burrow in 2020), they are pretty mediocre. Similarly, Lamar has had to deal with major O-line issues from 2020-2021 (and half of 2022) and has never had anything near a top shelf WR to throw to, yet he is still producing league average passing to go along with elite rushing. 
 

[Danger]

On 12/21/2022 at 6:01 PM, BayRaider said:

I am EXTREMELY impressed with Hurts. I thought he was a complete scrub Bottom 8 QB entering this season. I was wrong. So don’t sit here and act like I am disrespecting Hurts. But we have seen this mobile style of play unsustainable soooo many times after teams have one year of tape of that MVP season. 

No disrespect taken from a fan perspective. I fully expect him to regress next season due to some team overall regression coach replacements and the league understanding him more. I think this is actually a very fair and accurate outlook. 

One thing I do want to argue is your perspective on his mobility. He's not built like the other mobile QBs you've seen such as Mike Vick, LaMar Jackson, Kyler Murray etc. Dude is built like a truck and much more able to take a hit. He did get hurt in Chicago, sure. But it's still not catastrophic like you've seen from some the other guys you'd think of.

[Danger]

On 12/26/2022 at 1:42 PM, Bullet Club said:

Rodgers

Brady

ok Boomer

[Mox]

1 minute ago, Danger said:

ok Boomer

90's kid my guy

[Danger]

Just now, Bullet Club said:

90's kid my guy

Me too. But if you're putting them in your top 6 QBs going into 2023 you're nuts. Especially Brady. You don't get better at 46, you only go downhill. The talent is there around him, he's just not it this year.

[Mox]

Just now, Danger said:

Me too. But if you're putting them in your top 6 QBs going into 2023 you're nuts. Especially Brady. You don't get better at 46, you only go downhill. The talent is there around him, he's just not it this year.

Until they prove they're cooked physically I'm not betting against them being top 7. List wasn't in order.

[Danger]

4 minutes ago, Bullet Club said:

Until they prove they're cooked physically I'm not betting against them being top 7. List wasn't in order.

That argument seems viable for Rodgers, but Brady is 100% cooked. Mentally after the last offseason and physically. Gotta watch him throw this year, it's not the same.

[BayRaider]

3 hours ago, Danger said:

No disrespect taken from a fan perspective. I fully expect him to regress next season due to some team overall regression coach replacements and the league understanding him more. I think this is actually a very fair and accurate outlook. 

One thing I do want to argue is your perspective on his mobility. He's not built like the other mobile QBs you've seen such as Mike Vick, LaMar Jackson, Kyler Murray etc. Dude is built like a truck and much more able to take a hit. He did get hurt in Chicago, sure. But it's still not catastrophic like you've seen from some the other guys you'd think of.

I was purely talking once teams have a year of film study. While his style of play is usually good for an initial MVP season, it usually regresses to the 8-14 of QB’s for all following seasons when it comes to mobile QB’s. Tape is extremely important when game-planning for a Hurts style of QB. 

With that said though, Hurts has at least proven he belongs. 

Edited December 28, 2022 by BayRaider

[BayRaider]

3 hours ago, Danger said:

ok Boomer

After 2019 everyone clearly disrespected Brady and barely listed him as a Top 10 QB. He was listed 11-13 by most fans when we made these threads. When that was completely inaccurate. He was still a Top 3 QB if you watch his 2019 tape. It was probably the worst offensive talent he has ever had, and I would say the worst in the NFL. I had Brady still listed as my #3 or 4 heading into 2020. 

While everyone is likely correct about Brady this time (7-12 range), they are likely wrong on Rodgers. Rodgers is still a Top 5 QB going into 2023. Quite easily. Probably Top 3 to 4. 

Edited December 28, 2022 by BayRaider

[Dr LBC]

On 12/22/2022 at 9:51 AM, Soggust said:

I like Lawrence, I'm just still nervous on him. 

I haven't looked through the stats to confirm this so its probably just me making stuff up, but it feels like a lot of his TDs this year have come when they are way down. Idk that alone means anything, but it really gives off 26td-2int Baker Mayfield vibes to me.

I'm not saying he's not good or he will be Baker or anything other than "I just want to see him do it longer". Because even this season alone, it's definitely solid/good statistically, but it's not out of this world idk. And if, god forbid, he regresses from this season, where does he go?

Again, not writing him off whatsoever, just putting him on hold for now.

I think with the respect to those two (and just this metric in general) it really depends on how much someone weights a QB's ability to succeed within and/or transcend an offensive scheme that really doesn't fit him... and inversely, how much you weight a QB seeing a spike in performance due to (finally) being in a system that is best-fit for him?  It's not quite the "he's a system QB" argument, but it seems futile to me for a person to make a stance that scheme has no factor in the argument unless the QB has demonstrated that they are capable of transcending scheme (and these are really outliers - of the modern group we're really talking Mahomes, Rodgers, and, I'd argue, Allen).

[fluhartz]

21 hours ago, Danger said:

ok Boomer

ha ha