Week 17 Gameday Thread (New Years Day Edition) - Green Bay Packers (7-8-0) vs Minnesota (12-3-0)

[KFP7]

5 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

Dang, some people will just absolutely cling to their hopes and dreams even when reality smacks them in the face.

"My team has many regular season wins therefore that is my preferred measurement of success. The clearly better options are less good because they make my favorite team appear less good."

As if that empty appearance has any tangible benefit besides misleading yourself so you can enjoy some transient, but untethered joy.

as long as they play teams like the colts in the playoffs, they will continue to eek out wins.  Just have to avoid the Cowboys/Eagles/49ers all the way to the superbowl

[Brat&Beer]

[Scoremore]

3 hours ago, NoFlyZone said:

Yes, 11 games is a large enough sample size in the NFL to get a sense of some sort of trend. By your logic we shouldn’t even evaluate any team at all, let alone look at what teams get ‘hot’ at the end of the season because it ‘could all just be totally random’. The point you’re missing is that we have a large body of work (basically a full season) showing that the Vikings are good in the situations that they are being criticized for. The point you’re missing is that the outcome of their games in tight situations might not just be totally random chance. It may or may not actually have to do with the play of some of their most impactful players in those moments. But for some reason we want to devoid the situation of all actual context and rational thinking just because it’s easier to pretend that it’s all luck/ random chance because the games have been close. It’s not a logical argument.
 

As far as the coin comparison goes… get back to me when you flip a coin 11 times and get heads 11 times in a row. Keep track of the attempts, please. That being said, the Vikings success hasn’t been due to a flip of a coin or any other comparison of random chance. There is more to it than that. One can attempt to be a math nerd and also attempt that feat in a way that actually makes rational sense. GB fans will keep waiting for the ‘regression to the mean’ for the Vikings without understanding what that even means in comparison to the specific play of the Minnesota Vikings. This of course all while ignoring the fatal flaws of their own football team.

Personally I rank the Vikings behind Dallas, Philly, and San Fran… but the desperate hoops GB fans will jump through to dismiss them as an ‘average’ team at 12-3 is genuinely amusing. 

 

That's a real nice expose.  What you fail to realize is we don't like the Vikings.  Like at all.  What are you doing on our forum anyway?   Vikings will either be one and done or perhaps lose in the divisional round.  The Viking Defense sucks.  Offense is good when Cousins has time.  Under pressure he will fold like a cheap suit.  And fold he will.  

[HokieHigh]

3 hours ago, NoFlyZone said:

I was referring to being good in close games. We have a large body of work showcasing them playing well in tight games. Again, that doesn’t need to be attributed to totally random chance. 
 

Their point differential has been poor due to getting blown out by Philly and Dallas combined with a large amount of games that have been close. Again though, the games being close doesn’t need to lend itself to the idea that the trend of winning in that situation has been due to totally random chance with an expected regression due at some point. It may or may not actually be about the nuances of the game and the actual players involved. Again, doesn’t have to be explained by arguably misused, surface level mathematics. I see what you’re trying to get at, but think you’re misreading the context of the actual situation itself. 

math (if we call statistical analysis math).. was only brought into the conversation because you invoked the term 'sample size'. the distribution of scores in vikings games is not normal. sample size too small to make inferences.

 

 

[deltarich87]

The Vikings are a 8-7 team masquerading as a 12-3 team. Props to them for being on the right side of luck this entire regular season, and Vikes fans can continue to hope that good luck lasts all throughout the playoffs. Odds remain heavily against it continuing however. Certainly can happen, the 2011 GIants were objectively not a good team and they won it all. They've put themselves in a good spot from a seeding standpoint to give themselves the best chance, and this is probably the weakest the NFC has been in a long time.

 

[OneTwoSixFive]

1 hour ago, Scoremore said:

That's a real nice expose.  What you fail to realize is we don't like the Vikings.  Like at all.  What are you doing on our forum anyway?   Vikings will either be one and done or perhaps lose in the divisional round.  The Viking Defense sucks.  Offense is good when Cousins has time.  Under pressure he will fold like a cheap suit.  And fold he will.  

I (and several others) have posted on forums of teams that are not the Packers, when I've had something to say. It's only fair that they can post on a Packers forum when they have a point to make.

Do I want the Packers to beat the Vikings - yes, more than I want them to beat most other teams (though I don't like the out-of-division Seahawks, Cowboys or the AFC Patriots much). However, my strong desire to see the Packers beat the Vikings comes mainly from them being the toughest team in the NFC North to beat, in the last 30 years. Sure I don't like the giant horn or the colour of their uni's, but that's just icing on the cake. I'm sure Viking fans hate the "go Pack go" chant, just as much.

I can't get especially excited over a game vs the Bears or Lions, because neither team has been much good for a very long time. It's always nice to win of course, but the level of competition is not what it could be.

Edited December 29, 2022 by OneTwoSixFive

[squire12]

35 minutes ago, deltarich87 said:

The Vikings are a 8-7 team masquerading as a 12-3 team. Props to them for being on the right side of luck this entire regular season, and Vikes fans can continue to hope that good luck lasts all throughout the playoffs. Odds remain heavily against it continuing however. Certainly can happen, the 2011 GIants were objectively not a good team and they won it all. They've put themselves in a good spot from a seeding standpoint to give themselves the best chance, and this is probably the weakest the NFC has been in a long time.

 

you are not allowed to use those terms to describe how the Vikings are winning close games this year.  it is clearly that MIN "has grit and battles harder than most" 

[Scoremore]

48 minutes ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

I (and several others) have posted on forums of teams that are not the Packers, when I've had something to say. It's only fair that they can post on a Packers forum when they have a point to make.

Do I want the Packers to beat the Vikings - yes, more than I want them to beat most other teams (though I don't like the out-of-division Seahawks, Cowboys or the AFC Patriots much). However, my strong desire to see the Packers beat the Vikings comes mainly from them being the toughest team in the NFC North to beat, in the last 30 years. Sure I don't like the giant horn or the colour of their uni's, but that's just icing on the cake. I'm sure Viking fans hate the "go Pack go" chant, just as much.

I can't get especially excited over a game vs the Bears or Lions, because neither team has been much good for a very long time. It's always nice to win of course, but the level of competition is not what it could be.

Sorry man no love for the Vikings or their fans.  

[NoFlyZone]

2 hours ago, Scoremore said:

That's a real nice expose.  What you fail to realize is we don't like the Vikings.  Like at all.  What are you doing on our forum anyway?   Vikings will either be one and done or perhaps lose in the divisional round.  The Viking Defense sucks.  Offense is good when Cousins has time.  Under pressure he will fold like a cheap suit.  And fold he will.  

He’s literally the most hit QB in the league and having a great season.

As a guy living in Wisconsin who is often subjected to Packers football discussions I like peeking in here every once in a while to see what’s being said.

[Scoremore]

26 minutes ago, NoFlyZone said:

He’s literally the most hit QB in the league and having a great season.

As a guy living in Wisconsin who is often subjected to Packers football discussions I like peeking in here every once in a while to see what’s being said.

His great season is an Aaron Rodgers bad season.  Nothing against Cousins don't hate him.  He does fold under pressure. And don't be nice and make me like you.  You live in Wisconsin time to come over from the dark side and get your Green and Gold on. 

[coachbuns]

On 12/28/2022 at 7:20 PM, NoFlyZone said:

Basic odds should tell you otherwise. It doesn’t make any sense to attribute it to luck when they’ve had a 90%+ success rate in those situations with a large sample size spanning the entire regular season. Calling it luck isn’t rational. Maybe they’re simply good at winning close games. Many of those games being close is attributed to their defense, which is certainly a weakness for them at times… but they have the star power and grit on offense to get it done… clearly. Kirk is a big part of that, too. With some of their weaknesses as an overall team they’re probably behind teams such as Dallas, Philly, San Fran… but they’re certainly still a good, dangerous football team. 

sorry, see next post

Edited December 30, 2022 by coachbuns

[coachbuns]

Just now, coachbuns said:

 

Basic odds .. is there such a thing in football?  They have won an extraordinary number of very close games .. some by luck, some not.  As I mentioned, they are a decent team but to only have a 5 pt scoring difference over 15 total games is unreal.  They do have a very nice assortment of offensive weapons but the defense is as bad as the offense is good.   It will be interesting to see how the Vikings do in the playoffs with that defense.  The basic odds are leaning toward an early exit.,

[coachbuns]

7 hours ago, NoFlyZone said:

How about when the situation is the length of the entire regular season? What else do you have to go on? 
You all want to ignore a trend to the point of absurdity. When did ignoring literally all context and proclaiming “IT’S JUST LUCK” become the intelligent take? The fact remains that you have a large body of evidence that the Vikings are good at finishing close games and you’re all choosing to ignore it just because it’s convenient. 
 

We’re talking about an NFL season here and it’s only so long. The fact that a trend established over the course of the entire season isn’t notable to you is pretty laughable. Living in Wisconsin (and being a Dallas fan, actually) it’s been quite interesting to see how painfully jaded GB fans are about the success that Minnesota has been happening.

It isn't all luck but then again a number of the games they won were.  I don't care; the Vikings still suck worse than the Bears.  

[Striker]

Vikings one score wins:

-vs. Lions: Detroit blows coverage vs. Osborn. Goff ducks and chucks with 10 seconds left.
-@ Saints (London): Two missed Lutz FGs. 
-vs. Bears: Good 7 minute drive to score a go ahead, Smith-Marsette tries to make a play on four Vikings DB instead of going OOB, gets stripped by the Vikings. Smith-Marsette waived.
-@ Dolphins: The Bridgewater game. Even though it was a "one score" game, the Dolphins only brought it back to one score with 1:31 left in the 4th.
-vs. Cardinals: Defense held up after the O made it an 8 point game.
-vs. WAS: Kicked the go-ahead FG. WAS hilariously commits an unnecessary roughness penalty, which lets MIN run the clock down before kicking the go-ahead again.
-@ BUF: Josh Allen with a fumble under center when they had the game all but iced and then a terrible INT in OT.
-vs. NEP: Vikings O did what it had to do. Mac Jones is bad.
-vs. NYJ: Berrios drop. White forced it into triple coverage.
-vs. Colts: They're the Colts coached by Jeff Saturday. They have now twice allowed an opponent to score 33+ unanswered points at some point in the second half.
-vs. the Giants: 61 yard FG as time expires.

Some good holds in there for sure, but some absurd luck/run good in spots (long FGs, bad choices by opposing players).

As someone who watched the 2019 Packers (+63 differential, 8-1 in one score games)....it's just not sustainable in the playoffs.

[SkolMasterMN]

15 hours ago, PACKRULE said:

To the Vikes fans in here your team is doing well. Congrats on winnning the north and your teams success this year.

I wish our forum could acknowledge that but we just really can't. 

Good luck the rest of the way. 

Thank you for this, very classy and well appreciated. Best of luck to your squad as well. 

There's one thing we can all agree on.

The Bears still suck 😃