Head coaching candidates thread

[BroncoBruin]

6 hours ago, AKRNA said:

What makes Payton's w/l record somewhat suspect to me is it aligned perfectly with Drew Brees. From the 1st game of their debut the pair posted top 10 offenses every year, many top 5 and a few #1's. Payton coached 1 year after Drew retired and the offense dropped like a stone to the worst performance in Payton's history.

I doubt that's a coincidence. 

It’s a small sample size but they went 8-1 in games Brees missed his last two years. I actually think Brees was holding an elite roster back at that point with his limitations. 2017-2020 was a real championship window for that team and I think those teams were more Payton/Loomis driven. 

So we’ve seen Payton’s Saints have two extended championship windows, a SB win, and a few other teams who had a real shot if not for some heartbreaking losses. That’s about as good as you can realistically hope for outside of Brady/Belichick or other historic dynasties. 

[BroncoBruin]

My concerns with Payton, who imo is easily the best candidate if we’re just talking about coaching a team on Sunday. 

1. He’s a sleazeball. Many great coaches are  of course. 

2. How much power can you trust him with? I’m always skeptical of the HC who runs the whole operation. It ended Shanahan’s tenure here.

3. Does he really want this job? How motivated is he to coach again in general? 

4. Trading valuable draft assets for a coach when you’re already in the hole there is a problem. It will make building a roster harder. 
 

With no draft compensation involved, I would still do it. I think he is that good of a HC. 

[Broncofan]

5 hours ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

Just went through this entire thread. Where did you see that? I saw it a bit early on in the season but none here

BP's position on Hackett not being the problem is all over the forum, and before he was fired, questioning the reasoning.   It was posted only 1x here, but in Paton thread, Hackett thread, GDT's, etc.   It's not that surprising, given the perspective, but again, given that, well, it's hard to give the same credibility when prospective hires come up. 

Edited January 21, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

3 hours ago, BroncoBruin said:

It’s a small sample size but they went 8-1 in games Brees missed his last two years. I actually think Brees was holding an elite roster back at that point with his limitations. 2017-2020 was a real championship window for that team and I think those teams were more Payton/Loomis driven. 

So we’ve seen Payton’s Saints have two extended championship windows, a SB win, and a few other teams who had a real shot if not for some heartbreaking losses. That’s about as good as you can realistically hope for outside of Brady/Belichick or other historic dynasties. 

That's the hope for sure - but to play devil's advocate, Jameis Winston is a total gunslinger, but has the physical and QB skills to be a pocket passer, and pepper the middle of the field and short stuff - it's just not in his nature to resist taking the extra chances, and for some reason, pre-LASIK anyways, he couldn't see the underneath guy in zone coverage (leading to a lot of horrible picks).    But fitting him to the Joe Lombardi/Brees O that Sean Payton created, is a pretty natural fit - you're just reining a guy in from taking big chances.

In Wilson's case, keeping him in the pocket and making him a short area guy really limits what he does best.    FWIW, Joe Lombardi got rightfully canned because he basically had Justin Herbert do the same thing - and it led to LAC having the lowest ADOT on 1st/2nd down, and overall - and lowest ADOT for guys like Mike Williams, too.    That's the real risk where a Payton-Wilson match could fail.    Wilson becoming Brees V2 isn't likely to happen - Payton's got to adjust his scheme to match Wilson's abilities, too.

Now, on the flip side, 2 things Payton's done that could absolutely help us - he's overseen OL rebuilds and retools that we would die for.   Some of it is getting the GM aligned with spending early draft capital on, but that's good practice anyways.   I think it would be even easier if Payton (or whoever our HC is) simply asked Mike Munchak to come back - he only wants to live in Colorado, so it's a natural fit.    But getting top 5-10 OL production is the most stable way to sustain top O production.

The other thing that Payton's done to allow such heavy investment in the trenches - he's been able to find and develop skill position talent without having to spend R1 picks.    NO's invested in OL and D heavily in R1.    Reggie Bush, Mark Ingram (in era's where the RB was the lynchpin of the O, I would add), and Brandin Cooks were the only R1 picks in his 16 year tenure - and yet he produced a top 10 O with Day 2-3 guys and UDFA's/FA's.    Whether it's Marques Colston or Juwan Johnson (a guy the current coaches really underutilized outside of the RZ) - there were always guys Payton could find roles for and leverage.   Or make Day 2 guys into stars (Thomas, Kamara).      Finding our long-term WR2-3 at cheap prices (pretty clear Jeudy's the 1 now), developing more RB/TE talent without going R1, all helps the O sustain high levels of performance.  And Payton has shown he can do this.

I know ppl will say Payton had Drew Brees - but I'd echo the above point that Brees' arm strength was very limited in his last 3-4 years, and yet Payton still kept the O chugging along.   There's no doubt that Brees in his final seasons limited the NO O.    And Brees was just a borderline guy before he got to NO, too.   Now, there's still risk that trying to have Wilson become Brees V2 is a terrible fit - I think we all agree there.     But NO's absolute cratering on O does show how much Payton kept the O going.  

IMO it's not a question of Payton's coaching ability - it's more how committed he'll be post-Wilson.   At 20M+ (it's not my money, but generally speaking), and a 1st-round pick - you want to see Payton here to change the org identity and provide stability.   It can't be a 3-4 year hire, org-wise it's just a merry-go-round, that's way more expensive.    If we're hiring Payton, it's not just to fix Russell Wilson, but to create stability long-term.   You're not paying 20M for a coach and trading away a R1 pick and only getting a short win-now rental.    Barring a SB win (and we all know how unlikely it is for good to great teams, let alone our roster with its OL / DL issues & Wilson's rehab), that's insanity.   

FWIW, I had the same concerns on Harbaugh - but the cost wasn't even close to the same ballpark.  If it's only the Wal-Mart's $, you take that shot without hesitation.   If Payton only cost $, same idea.   The price, though, makes this harder, unless you know you're getting a long-term commitment.   There's no way to ensure it 100 percent (but a 7-8 year deal goes a long way in having the same out NO has now, to get picks back if he wants to bolt again).

 

Edited January 21, 2023 by Broncofan

[jolly red giant]

In terms of the coaching candidates available Payton has the best record of success and the best pedigree.

I've seen suggestions that Harbaugh was interested in coming to Denver - but didn't want to wait until the FO finished their interview process. That shows an element of impatience on his part which is unfortunate (or maybe he got the vibe that Penner was going all-in on Payton).

Payton will cost and I would be okay with giving up the pick we got for Chubb - any more and you have to start getting concerned that we are getting fleeced (again).

Saying that - I think Payton can fix Wilson. About half way through the season Payton was asked what he would do with Wilson and he said that he would go back and look at every play where Wilson threw a TD pass and at every play where Wilson completed a pass in the RZ - and that these plays would form the basis for what he would do with Wilson. At least he has already indicated a plan - and he is known for building OLs which we badly need. 

We have a defence - we have players on offence in the skill positions - we need an OL and offensive plays that fit Wilson's skillset. 

The problem we will have is cap space - there is a 2 year window. By 2025 Wilson has a cap hit of $55m - and after 2024 the following have to get paid - PS2, Jeudy, Williams (assuming he gets back to peak), Browning, Meinerz, Simmons. Along with that Gregory will have to be replaced, as will Bolles, Sutton, Patrick and DJ Jones.

The biggest issue with giving up a pick for Payton is that you lose a potential starter on a cheap contract. Saying that - half od all 1st round picks are busts - although Paton has shown ability to find people in the draft so the chances in Denver are lower.

There is going to be some creative roster building and cap management.

[broncos_fan _from _uk]

10 hours ago, Broncofan said:

BP's position on Hackett not being the problem is all over the forum, and before he was fired, questioning the reasoning.   It was posted only 1x here, but in Paton thread, Hackett thread, GDT's, etc.   It's not that surprising, given the perspective, but again, given that, well, it's hard to give the same credibility when prospective hires come up. 

I understand the sentiment, and I hate defending BP, but that’s a slippery slope to for an Internet forum. You were all in on Josh Rosen… and Dwayne Haskins… and Justin Fields…and Russel Wilson. Should we question your credibility when it comes to QBs?

personally, even if I disagree with someone I want a diversity to opinions so that I can see and evaluate all sides. No one should be silenced based off of past bad takes 

[Broncofan]

37 minutes ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

I understand the sentiment, and I hate defending BP, but that’s a slippery slope to for an Internet forum. You were all in on Josh Rosen… and Dwayne Haskins… and Justin Fields…and Russel Wilson. Should we question your credibility when it comes to QBs?

personally, even if I disagree with someone I want a diversity to opinions so that I can see and evaluate all sides. No one should be silenced based off of past bad takes 

Absolutely fair, but if you're that far off on Hackett's contribution to the problems on O, when it comes to the coaching/Wilson formula, it's the literally the same situation we're in, just a diff candidate. 

No one's going to get it right all the time, or even 60-70% of the time.  But the position that it wasn't so much Hackett as Wilson for our problems is one that BP's not come off of, either.   Acknowledging that Hackett was a massive part would add way more credibility to any take on Wilson/next HC, than to just simply start again that the next prime candidate isn't the solution.  Given the Raider angle, it comes off as more wishful thinking than perspective (the whole notion Hackett should get a 2nd year certainly comes off that way).   I say that as someone who sees both sides to Payton/Wilson match (and way more risk the higher the price we pay), and not at all blindly sold on Payton as our future HC. 

No one's going to get it right all the time, esp with QB's.   But the perspective matters if it's way out to left field and the same topic for the same situation...then it does matter.   Part of good online discussion is a 2-way conversation, and accountability - as I credited the very few ppl who called Wilson trade as a bad call earlier, that's how we move forward and learn from it, changing the view that the HC wasn't a massive part is how this convo moves forward too.  Then it's more about whether Payton's the right guy, at this price.   If we're still at "Russ is the only problem and not fixable", it's not adding to the convo, either.

Edited January 21, 2023 by Broncofan

[1234567]

On 1/20/2023 at 2:03 PM, big_palooka said:

Imagine trading all those high end picks to get Russell Wilson, then trading potentially more high end picks for Payton to fix him. It's already an all time bad trade, that would be the icing on the cake. 

And Payton!? The guy had 5 sub .500 seasons with Drew Brees as his QB. Kept kicking the can down the road until the bill came due and bounced. That really your guy? 

You're not wrong lol. And yet somehow I still feel better about our situation than I would the Raiders'. McDaniels is about to wipe his big hairy beanbag all over that franchise, and it gonna take you guys years to recover. We got lucky. Tebow time provided enough of a distraction to hold us over until Payton Manning showed up and rescued us. But PFM's don't grow on trees. Dark days ahead for you guys, I'm afraid. Time will tell though.  

Edited January 21, 2023 by 1234567
autocorrect

[CDNBRONCOSFAN]

Watching this Niners/Cowboys games I’m gonna pass on Quinn and Moore. But Ryan’s definitely needs a 2nd interview 

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, CDNBRONCOSFAN said:

Watching this Niners/Cowboys games I’m gonna pass on Quinn and Moore. But Ryan’s definitely needs a 2nd interview 

Kellen Moore was definitely a candidate who showed why you don't go off 1 hot year, he was downright mediocre last year, when he was a darling in the interview circuit.   While he bounced back this year, the NFCE had a crazy soft schedule - and it showed out as competition improved.   That was a horrific game plan early on - Dak played poorly, but going run-run-pass on that key 1st INT put Dak in an obvious pass situation and Dak/SF D delivered.   Moore is a good OC, but even when you realize being a good coordinator doesn't mean you'll be a good HC, Moore's got work to do on the OC side.  It's hard to see how he'd be ready to be a good HC.

Quinn's D actually acquitted themselves really well.   Again, I don't know if being a good DC is the right barometer for HC evaluation, but Quinn shouldn't take much, if any blame for today.   It's under the radar, but the FO & McCarthy's decision to keep their K Maher was such an impact decision - he only missed 1 XP, and made 2 FG's, but the terror they had in having to consider FG definitely affected their O for 2-3Q+.    Of course, DAL got their 1st round win, and Jerry Jones says McCarthy is safe, but who knows.   

This is going to be the key week, though - I think we find out if there's an asking price pick-wise and fit with Payton and the FO.    If there is, it gets finalized this week.  If not, then the race is on.   If it's not Payton, really the only candidate I don't think is on the same level as the rest is Caldwell.   Quinn wouldn't excite me, but I'd want to know who he's bringing in as OC and if he's keeping Evero.   If it's Darrell Bevell and no Evero, ugh.   

This should be a big week in the news cycle for our search.  Ryans is the only major candidate left whose team is still playing.   I wouldn't rule out Raheem Morris out, either.   In both cases though I'd love to know who their OC will be.  

[germ-x]

I haven’t looked up all the rules around interviews, but doesn’t the 49ers win basically eliminate Ryans as a candidate unless Denver is willing to wait to hire until after the SB?

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, germ-x said:

I haven’t looked up all the rules around interviews, but doesn’t the 49ers win basically eliminate Ryans as a candidate unless Denver is willing to wait to hire until after the SB?

He can interview after the CG, there's a 2-week break, they're OK in the 1st week.

Bigger issue is that Ryans has cancelled extra interviews after doing a lengthy interview with HOU (5-hours) - Vegas has taken the HOU coaching line down, after Ryans was +140 there.   Sounds a lot like he may be off the board.

 

 

Edited January 23, 2023 by Broncofan

[big_palooka]

On 1/21/2023 at 4:11 AM, Broncofan said:

BP's position on Hackett not being the problem is all over the forum, and before he was fired, questioning the reasoning.   It was posted only 1x here, but in Paton thread, Hackett thread, GDT's, etc.   It's not that surprising, given the perspective, but again, given that, well, it's hard to give the same credibility when prospective hires come up. 

I was never saying Hackett was not a problem. I was saying putting everything on him to make yourselves feel better about mortgaging the future on Wilson was misguided. 

 

[big_palooka]

On 1/21/2023 at 5:26 PM, 1234567 said:

You're not wrong lol. And yet somehow I still feel better about our situation than I would the Raiders'. McDaniels is about to wipe his big hairy beanbag all over that franchise, and it gonna take you guys years to recover. We got lucky. Tebow time provided enough of a distraction to hold us over until Payton Manning showed up and rescued us. But PFM's don't grow on trees. Dark days ahead for you guys, I'm afraid. Time will tell though.  

Hilarious thing is, this team has been trying to recover since 2002 so what's another decade at this point? With Mark Davis running things, there is little hope as it is. 

I'm actually happy they ended the Derek Carr experience because it was purgatory. They will have 65+ mil in cap when they trade him and 15+ draft picks. Maybe Ziegler can get things right, but I'd lean more towards a slow start to the year and Tommy Boy trying to hire Gruden back mid season at this point. 

Regardless, I hate the spot both our franchises are in in the AFC West. Mahomes and Herbert are a problem and until our teams can get QBs to compete with them, we're always going to be chasing in the division. And the AFC as a whole is stacked with young QB talent. 

[broncos67]

1 hour ago, big_palooka said:

I was never saying Hackett was not a problem. I was saying putting everything on him to make yourselves feel better about mortgaging the future on Wilson was misguided. 

 

The Broncos didn't mortgage the future on Wilson. I do not get why people keep repeating this line. I know you know more about football than this. They recovered an R1 pick with the Chubb trade. We have 3 picks in the top 70 of the draft. After this year, if we really wanted to we could eat the cap charge and dump Russ. Unlikely, but possible.

Will have plenty of cap space once players are released, contracts restructured etc...