The New QB Thread: Who will be the Raiders QB next season?

[Dessie]

Just now, big_palooka said:

No NFL owner would pull a stunt like that imo. It would be frowned upon by the rest of the owners and a bad look for the future of the trade market. 

Maybe Carr gets that money, that's a risk his camp would have to take. 

It's a tough situation to be sure. I just think there are a lot of teams who need a QB and will take their shot knowing the market sucks otherwise. 

I'm not big on contracts, but could the Raiders keep him and trade him at a later date? Or they are still on the hook that money if he's traded?

We would be on the hook for his contract till we traded him, the balance of the contract is then passed to his new team. We would have to budget for the whole contract for the event we couldn’t trade him. If he gets injured working out etc we are screwed. It’s part of the reason he isn’t with the team at the moment.

 Circumstances change pretty quickly in this league, it only takes an off field incident and teams have to change their whole front office, coaching team and Carr changes his mind and we are screwed. 

[NYRaider]

25 minutes ago, Dessie said:

That relies on Carr accepting a trade and then we have to take a gamble on the teams honouring the deal. It only takes a GM resignation/sacking, coach change or change of mind and we are stuck with an extra $30m cap charge.

Given the circumstances the trade capital has to be worth the risk, if it’s only say a 3rd round pick is it worth the risk ?

Also If Carr signed on the market is it not likely he would get more than $40m in guarantees over a multi year deal especially if all these teams need a QB and are interested ?  So why would he want a trade ?

The no trade clause and the fact we are on the hook for $30m 3 days after the season ends makes it a really tough situation. 

The two biggest contracts in NFL free agency were 28/25M APY. Carr isn’t going to get the biggest deal ever. 

[Dessie]

4 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

The two biggest contracts in NFL free agency were 28/25M APY. Carr isn’t going to get the biggest deal ever. 

Why would it have to be the biggest deal ever? Could he not get say 4yr $75m with $45m gtd ? 

[drfrey13]

15 minutes ago, Dessie said:

Why would it have to be the biggest deal ever? Could he not get say 4yr $75m with $45m gtd ? 

That is a lot less then what his current contract is worth.  He has a 3 year $120 million deal with $42 million guaranteed.

[Dessie]

1 minute ago, drfrey13 said:

That is a lot less then what his current contract is worth.  He has a 3 year $120 million deal with $42 million guaranteed.

It was an example. He’s coming off a bad season, where his team has basically said he can go. If he gets more money guaranteed than what’s left he’s winning.

[drfrey13]

15 minutes ago, Dessie said:

It was an example. He’s coming off a bad season, where his team has basically said he can go. If he gets more money guaranteed than what’s left he’s winning.

He is not going to get more money and that is also the reason why he will waive the no trade clause.

[NYRaider]

2 hours ago, Dessie said:

Why would it have to be the biggest deal ever? Could he not get say 4yr $75m with $45m gtd ? 

$28M APY is the biggest contract in NFL history. (free agency)

[NickButera]

3 hours ago, drfrey13 said:

He is not going to get more money and that is also the reason why he will waive the no trade clause.

Hes scheduled to get over 40 million the last 2 years. I agree, I don't see him getting anywhere near that kind of money. If he can stick in a place for two years he'll get almost 75 mil, I don't think he'd get much more than that in guarantees anywhere. Most likely if he sticks after 2 years there will be a restructure/extension and they'll push a bunch more money at him upfront to lowered the cap hit. He's in a golden spot with his current contract to rake it in the next 3 years. 

[drfrey13]

12 minutes ago, NickButera said:

Hes scheduled to get over 40 million the last 2 years. I agree, I don't see him getting anywhere near that kind of money. If he can stick in a place for two years he'll get almost 75 mil, I don't think he'd get much more than that in guarantees anywhere. Most likely if he sticks after 2 years there will be a restructure/extension and they'll push a bunch more money at him upfront to lowered the cap hit. He's in a golden spot with his current contract to rake it in the next 3 years. 

If he is on a roster with the current contract he gets the $32.9 million for 2023 plus $7.5 of 2024.  This is all salary money so it does not include the signing money he already received.  So if he only plays 1 year he gets $40.4 million.  With the way his contract is structured 2024 is actually his cheapest year.

[NickButera]

16 minutes ago, drfrey13 said:

If he is on a roster with the current contract he gets the $32.9 million for 2023 plus $7.5 of 2024.  This is all salary money so it does not include the signing money he already received.  So if he only plays 1 year he gets $40.4 million.  With the way his contract is structured 2024 is actually his cheapest year.

That's incorrect. What you referred to is his cap hit if the injury settlement kicks in with us before seasons end. 

His base salary in 2023 if rostered is 32.9 mil with a 100k work out bonus. His salary if rostered on 2024 is 41.9 mil with a 100k work out bonus. 2025 is 43 mil. This is all new salaried money for those years. So if he agrees to a trade the team would be on the hook to pay him these salaries if rostered after the Superbowls of those years. 

I was referring to if he can hang on to a new team for 2 years he's going to get almost 75 mil in new money. And like you said, he's not going to get this kind of money from a new contract, so I definitely think he agrees to a trade too

[drfrey13]

8 minutes ago, NickButera said:

That's incorrect. What you referred to is his cap hit if the injury settlement kicks in with us before seasons end. 

His base salary in 2023 if rostered is 32.9 mil with a 100k work out bonus. His salary if rostered on 2024 is 41.9 mil with a 100k work out bonus. 2025 is 43 mil. This is all new salaried money for those years. So if he agrees to a trade the team would be on the hook to pay him these salaries if rostered after the Superbowls of those years. 

I was referring to if he can hang on to a new team for 2 years he's going to get almost 75 mil in new money. And like you said, he's not going to get this kind of money from a new contract, so I definitely think he agrees to a trade too

He gets the $7.5 million if he is on a roster after 2/14.  So if a team trades for him and he is on a team for 2023 he is guaranteed the $7.5 million.  Now the money comes in 2024 but it is a sunk cost.  Therefore the true cost of him being on a team in 2023 is over $40 million and although his cap number is $40 plus it is actually under because the $7.5 was earned in 2023.  Now if he is traded again under the same contract next offseason then the numbers can be considered year by year what the contract says.  

As an example a signing bonus is spread out over 5 years but it is all paid upfront which I am sure you know.  When making a business decision on a plyer in year 3 you do not take into account the SB because it is a sunk cost and only new money should be used to evaluate a players value.  So a player has a $10 million cap hit in 2023 but $2.5 is signing bonus.  When deciding to keep the player you do not try to figure out if he is worth $10 dollars.  You figure out if he is worth $7.5 million.  So when evaluating Carr in a trade I do not want his value to be $33 million for next year because if you have to cut him or he is injured his cost is going to be $40.5 million.

[NickButera]

3 minutes ago, drfrey13 said:

 and although his cap number is $40 plus it is actually under because the $7.5 was earned in 2023.  

Huh? Lol.

.....I''m not seeing what the point of your explanation is? My whole point was that I agreed with your original premise that no one is going to pay him as much as his contract is now. " if he can stick with his new team for 2 years, there's no way any new contract would give him 75 mil in guarantees, and that's what he would earn right now"

[drfrey13]

4 hours ago, NickButera said:

Huh? Lol.

.....I''m not seeing what the point of your explanation is? My whole point was that I agreed with your original premise that no one is going to pay him as much as his contract is now. " if he can stick with his new team for 2 years, there's no way any new contract would give him 75 mil in guarantees, and that's what he would earn right now"

I understand that you agree with me on the overall idea but I was just explaining how I viewed the contract breakdown.  It is something to keep in mind when we try to trade him.  That is how teams will view his contract.  Sorry if it came across like I was arguing.  Just a clarification of my thought process.

[RaidersAreOne]

 

[NickButera]

1 hour ago, RaidersAreOne said: