The New QB Thread: Who will be the Raiders QB next season?

[NCOUGHMAN]

9 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

At the end of the day it's in DC's best interest to work with the team to facilitate a trade. By doing so he guarantees himself $40M over the next two seasons and keeps his contract intact that's set to pay him $110M+ over the next three seasons. That's why he kind of let his foot off the gas in terms of "exposing" the Raiders by telling DC4's side of the story. Carr won't get nearly as much in free agency and he'll be competing with guys like TB12 and JG.

It's still pretty amazing to me that we gave Carr a NTC with such an early deadline though when guys like Rodgers, Stafford, etc. didn't get a NTC.

Imo it’s not in the receiving teams best interest to take on carr contract plus give up picks

[NYRaider]

2 minutes ago, NCOUGHMAN said:

Imo it’s not in the receiving teams best interest to take on carr contract plus give up picks

Trading for Carr guarantees that you have a good veteran QB going into next season. If you play your chances in free agency there's a good chance you come up empty handed and that's the type of situation that costs GMs/HCs their jobs. We've seen guys like Wentz, Darnold, etc. traded for pretty solid hauls, it's a QB driven league. 

I don't think the idea a team could skip trading for Carr to sign him in free agency would sit well with him or his camp. Especially consider he'd have to take significantly less money.

Edited January 25, 2023 by NYRaider

[NCOUGHMAN]

11 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Trading for Carr guarantees that you have a good veteran QB going into next season. If you play your chances in free agency there's a good chance you come up empty handed and that's the type of situation that costs GMs/HCs their jobs. We've seen guys like Wentz, Darnold, etc. traded for pretty solid hauls, it's a QB driven league. 

I don't think the idea a team could skip trading for Carr to sign him in free agency would sit well with him or his camp. Especially consider he'd have to take significantly less money.

Teams know we eventually have to cut him. Teams could wait it out still give him similar $ and not give up draft picks. Imo it’s best for carr to be a fa and have a bidding war. 

[NYRaider]

1 minute ago, NCOUGHMAN said:

Teams know we eventually have to cut him. Teams could wait it out still give him similar $ and not give up draft picks. Imo it’s best for carr to be a fa and have a bidding war. 

If Carr got a similar deal in free agency it would be by far the biggest free agent contract in NFL history. I don't see that happening when guys like Brady/Jimmy will also be on the market and Rodgers could be on the move as well. Teams have already reached out and Carr is in the process of doing research on potential landing spots. I can't imagine he'd be thrilled about the idea of signing with a team that expressed interest in him but didn't pull the trigger in hopes they could pay him less in free agency. 

I think there will be at least one team, likely multiple, that would prefer giving up assets for Carr to secure a good veteran starter rather than risking coming up empty in free agency. 

[bucksavage1]

5 hours ago, NCOUGHMAN said:

Teams know we eventually have to cut him. Teams could wait it out still give him similar $ and not give up draft picks. Imo it’s best for carr to be a fa and have a bidding war. 

I agree. Carr basically becomes an FA a few weeks before everyone else can sign. I don’t think we are getting much of anything for him

[NYRaider]

1 minute ago, bucksavage1 said:

I agree. Carr basically becomes an FA a few weeks before everyone else can sign. I don’t think we are getting much of anything for him

It's a quarterback driven league and Carr has been one of the most consistent players in the league over the last 9 seasons. He obviously hasn't been great but he has been productive / serviceable and has had his moments of borderline elite play. 

The reason I'm confident that we'll get a decent return is because he's really the only QB on the market that doesn't have baggage. Tom Brady might not play and even if he does, how much does he have left in the tank? Plus it's likely only a 1 year deal and you have to convince him to sign with you. Aaron Rodgers also might not play next year, will cost more than Carr financially and in terms of assets required to get a deal done. He has also been notorious for off the field drama and it could very well be a 1 year deal as well. Jimmy G hasn't ever been able to stay healthy and has benefited from playing on elite teams throughout his career, and he's another guy that you have to convince to sign with you.

Lamar and Geno are both under team control and I don't see either of them going anywhere. 

So Carr is really the only upper tier QB that a team controls their own fate with in terms of being able to acquire him, has been healthy, and who gives you more than a year of prime football. Another benefit with Carr is that if things don't work out his next team can cut him with very little cap implications.

[NYRaider]

The Seahawks and Geno Smith are expected to get a deal done soon and he reportedly has no interest in testing free agency. So you can take one veteran QB option off the market.

[bucksavage1]

4 hours ago, NYRaider said:

It's a quarterback driven league and Carr has been one of the most consistent players in the league over the last 9 seasons. He obviously hasn't been great but he has been productive / serviceable and has had his moments of borderline elite play. 

The reason I'm confident that we'll get a decent return is because he's really the only QB on the market that doesn't have baggage. Tom Brady might not play and even if he does, how much does he have left in the tank? Plus it's likely only a 1 year deal and you have to convince him to sign with you. Aaron Rodgers also might not play next year, will cost more than Carr financially and in terms of assets required to get a deal done. He has also been notorious for off the field drama and it could very well be a 1 year deal as well. Jimmy G hasn't ever been able to stay healthy and has benefited from playing on elite teams throughout his career, and he's another guy that you have to convince to sign with you.

Lamar and Geno are both under team control and I don't see either of them going anywhere. 

So Carr is really the only upper tier QB that a team controls their own fate with in terms of being able to acquire him, has been healthy, and who gives you more than a year of prime football. Another benefit with Carr is that if things don't work out his next team can cut him with very little cap implications.

Also can be true. I heard Shefter saying that scarcity in the QB market is driving up Carr value. Plus he doesn’t have multiple team baggage like Mayfield. That can also mean Carr could play the bidding game for a new contract that pays him more in FA. He will be the 1st player to reach FA with all the teams cap space available 

I think he doesn’t agree to a trade and we cut him
 

There’s 3 weeks left

[NYRaider]

4 minutes ago, bucksavage1 said:

Also can be true. I heard Shefter saying that scarcity in the QB market is driving up Carr value. Plus he doesn’t have multiple team baggage like Mayfield. That can also mean Carr could play the bidding game for a new contract that pays him more in FA. He will be the 1st player to reach FA with all the teams cap space available 

I think he doesn’t agree to a trade and we cut him

There’s 3 weeks left

Again, do you really think that Carr is going to reset the free agent market and get by far the biggest contract in the history of NFL free agency when guys like Brady, Jimmy G, and Rodgers are also available and likely cheaper? I'm assuming Brady/Jimmy will get $20-$25M APY and Rodgers only has a $15M cap hit if he's traded. But a team is going to pay Derek Carr almost double/triple what they could pay Brady/Jimmy/Rodgers? 

He's already slated to be the 7th highest paid QB in the league over the next three seasons and is coming off of arguably the worst year of his career outside of maybe his rookie season. The only teams that could even feasible afford to do that are the Bears, Giants, and Falcons but the latter two would be literally depleting their entire bankroll to do it. 

I'm also not sure how he'd be the first player to reach FA, even if he gets cut he can't negotiate a deal with a new team until the new league year starts. And teams already know what other quarterbacks are going to be on the market. I think if anything helping the team negotiate a trade works in his favor because he can essentially pick his landing spot before any of the other upper tier options are even able to negotiate with teams. 

Carr choosing to walk away from $40M GTD as a part of a 3 yr/$121M would have to be the most money a player has ever willingly walked away from to test his luck in free agency in the history of professional sports. 

[bucksavage1]

1 hour ago, NYRaider said:

Again, do you really think that Carr is going to reset the free agent market and get by far the biggest contract in the history of NFL free agency when guys like Brady, Jimmy G, and Rodgers are also available and likely cheaper? I'm assuming Brady/Jimmy will get $20-$25M APY and Rodgers only has a $15M cap hit if he's traded. But a team is going to pay Derek Carr almost double/triple what they could pay Brady/Jimmy/Rodgers? 

He's already slated to be the 7th highest paid QB in the league over the next three seasons and is coming off of arguably the worst year of his career outside of maybe his rookie season. The only teams that could even feasible afford to do that are the Bears, Giants, and Falcons but the latter two would be literally depleting their entire bankroll to do it. 

I'm also not sure how he'd be the first player to reach FA, even if he gets cut he can't negotiate a deal with a new team until the new league year starts. And teams already know what other quarterbacks are going to be on the market. I think if anything helping the team negotiate a trade works in his favor because he can essentially pick his landing spot before any of the other upper tier options are even able to negotiate with teams. 

Carr choosing to walk away from $40M GTD as a part of a 3 yr/$121M would have to be the most money a player has ever willingly walked away from to test his luck in free agency in the history of professional sports. 

 We’re gonna see some massive contracts signed across the league. TV deals are about to show with the CBA due soon. I’m not sure he gets more than 40M but after next season the next team could but him the next season with a small cap hit.

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/las-vegas-raiders
 

Carr agent would probably want to rework the contract to match incentives with team

[NYRaider]

40 minutes ago, bucksavage1 said:

 We’re gonna see some massive contracts signed across the league. TV deals are about to show with the CBA due soon. I’m not sure he gets more than 40M but after next season the next team could but him the next season with a small cap hit.

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/las-vegas-raiders
 

Carr agent would probably want to rework the contract to match incentives with team

That's all fine and dandy but I promise you Carr wouldn't get even close to his current deal in free agency. I'll literally never post on here again if we cut him and he signs a deal that's worth more than 3 yr/$121M.

[IdigtheRaiders!]

1. Keep Stidham

2. Sign Jacoby Brisset

3. If Stroud is still there at #6, move up one space to get him

4. All of the above = playoffs?

Edited January 26, 2023 by IdigtheRaiders!

[true2form]

8 hours ago, NYRaider said:

That's all fine and dandy but I promise you Carr wouldn't get even close to his current deal in free agency. I'll literally never post on here again if we cut him and he signs a deal that's worth more than 3 yr/$121M.

You're coming at this from a Raiders fan standpoint of what you want to happen.  Everything you say would be best for the Raiders and what we all want.

Logic says otherwise.  Teams can wait the Raiders out.  Sign Carr to as big or small of a contract as they'd like.  Carr may not get the biggest contract of all time or whatever, but he can certainly get new guaranteed money.  If it's 25 instead of 40, I'm sure he'll be fine and happy to be somewhere he is wanted.  The guy isn't hurting for money and I'm sure it's not top of his list.

[101Raider]

2 hours ago, IdigtheRaiders! said:

1. Keep Stidham

2. Sign Jacoby Brisset

3. If Stroud is still there at #6, move up one space to get him

4. All of the above = playoffs?

I’m fine with all of the above except Brisset. I’d rather just take my chances with Stidham if that’s the case.

[Chali21]

2 hours ago, true2form said:

You're coming at this from a Raiders fan standpoint of what you want to happen.  Everything you say would be best for the Raiders and what we all want.

Logic says otherwise.  Teams can wait the Raiders out.  Sign Carr to as big or small of a contract as they'd like.  Carr may not get the biggest contract of all time or whatever, but he can certainly get new guaranteed money.  If it's 25 instead of 40, I'm sure he'll be fine and happy to be somewhere he is wanted.  The guy isn't hurting for money and I'm sure it's not top of his list.

There’s too many places that are talking about exploring trades. Shefter said it, his brother said it, the beat writers have said it. You’re right Carr can veto but maybe he won’t. We’ll have to wait and see what happens.