The New QB Thread: Who will be the Raiders QB next season?

[drfrey13]

1 hour ago, Dessie said:

So you do think Carr will get more than $40m gtd so therefore not a big risk for him to go into FA. At this point you seem contradicting what you said earlier. 

If a team is willing to trade for him he has sure money coming to him and he should waive his no trade clause.  He then can restructure his deal and get more guaranteed money while lowering his overall cap hit.  There is room for everyone to get into a better situation.  If he goes the FA route because he will not waive his no trade clause then all bets are off.  He has no leverage.  If a team is willing to trade for him he has leverage.

[Dessie]

3 minutes ago, drfrey13 said:

If a team is willing to trade for him he has sure money coming to him and he should waive his no trade clause.  He then can restructure his deal and get more guaranteed money while lowering his overall cap hit.  There is room for everyone to get into a better situation.  If he goes the FA route because he will not waive his no trade clause then all bets are off.  He has no leverage.  If a team is willing to trade for him he has leverage.

You’ve already said that you think teams will give him more than $40m gtd. Assuming Carr agrees then he can do his new team a favour and allow them to keep their picks and sign for them in FA. 

[drfrey13]

11 minutes ago, Dessie said:

You’ve already said that you think teams will give him more than $40m gtd. Assuming Carr agrees then he can do his new team a favour and allow them to keep their picks and sign for them in FA. 

It is not that simple.  There are no guarantees in FA and I am sure the Raiders will try to poison the well if he blocks a trade.  Every year there are players that over value themselves and then take a hit when they have to settle for the scraps that are left over.  He has no certainty or security if he goes through FA.  Players do not give up their security to try and bring in a rookie.  Only way he knows what a team is going to give him is if he does something against the rules.  It generally all comes down to what is best for his family which is almost always money.  Carr might take less money for a successful team but I do not believe that happens until he is older.

If he is traded he can leverage his contract into more guaranteed money while lowering the cap hit.

In FA he might get a better contract or he could get a small 1 year deal.  The outcome will probably be somewhere in the middle but he is risking a lot.  I do not see him taking a chance like that over draft picks.  I do not see many if any players doing that.  I know agents and talked with a few players about stuff like this.  Every player says I have to do what is best for me because my career can end at any time and the team will just toss me aside.  Agents always say they have to do what is best for their client which is the most money possible.  Only way this happens is if he tells the team I will save you picks only if you give me more money.  That would be against the rules and if they did it after a trade ways already agreed between the Raiders and another team the reputations would be ruined.  There is a code in place.

[Dessie]

3 minutes ago, drfrey13 said:

It is not that simple.  There are no guarantees in FA and I am sure the Raiders will try to poison the well if he blocks a trade. .

If like you have said teams are going to be willing to pay more $40m gtd then it’s not a big risk for Carr, he will understand the market when he makes his decision. If Carr thinks the Raiders will poison the well (I don’t) that’s just another reason to invoke the no trade clause. 

[BayRaider]

12 hours ago, Chali21 said:

Well first he’s going to know JMDs system better than Carr did. He’d probably gel better with JMD. He’ll probably be cheaper allowing for the Raiders to sign more players in FA building up the roster. But all that’s moot because he’d probably tear an ACL in like week 5. 
 

I don’t think Jimmy is the savior or long term option but no matter how you slice it there will be a lost year. Either it’s this season with Jimmy G/Rookie that’s not Levis or Richardson. Or it’s next season or two with Rodgers/Brady. Let’s just light this candle, build the roster and push in the chips for a guy in 2024.

 

Now I’m going to say something that will trigger some of y’all: there are no long term options in 2023 at QB. Rodgers is pushing 40 who comes with a heavy price and Brady is closer to 50 than 40. The rest of the QB options are backups and low tier starters. As for the rookie class it reminds me of 2013 except there’s probably a little more talent. It would be incredibly negligent for the Raiders to pick a raw QB over a pass rusher to compliment Crosby. 

How is signing Jimmy only a lost year for 2023? It’s probably a lost year for 2024 as well because Jimmy will get us to 7-10 and we not in range to draft a QB. 

[drfrey13]

27 minutes ago, Dessie said:

If like you have said teams are going to be willing to pay more $40m gtd then it’s not a big risk for Carr, he will understand the market when he makes his decision. If Carr thinks the Raiders will poison the well (I don’t) that’s just another reason to invoke the no trade clause. 

They would only poison the well if Carr tries to do the same in a trade.  

I do not know how many different ways I can explain it.  There could be 0 to 31 teams that are willing to give Carr that amount.  Let's jus say there are 7.  3 of these teams already have QBs in place.  so now you have 4 teams willing to pay that much.  Some teams think they do not have a chance to sign him so they move quickly to scoop up Geno Smith and Tom Brady.  The 2 other teams have high picks and really like the QB class so they still have options and decide to wait and sign a bridge QB for their rookie.  Now all the teams willing to give him that much are gone.  Some teams are willing to give him $30 but they have already signed guys in that price range and need the rest of their cap to fill other holes.  So they have players not as good as Carr but they can not sign him because they are locked in.  Now Carr is on tier 3 but he believes his worth is greater than that so he decides to wait it out hoping an injury happens or a teams misses out on a QB in the draft.  Now 5 QBs go in the first and teams are willing to sign Carr to a 2 year deal to act as a bridge QB but only at $15 million a year with the first year guaranteed.  He decides again to bet on himself and wait to see if a QB gets hurt now.  No one does and the season is close.  Now his best options is to sign as a back up for 1 year $10 million.  Now he gets to play in week 8 but takes a low shot and hurts his shoulder like Cam Newton.  Now he is a shell of a QB and decides to hang it up.  He did all this because he wanted to hurt the Raiders and help a new team have an extra 1st round rookie which ends up a bust anyways.  

Now this is a crazy wild situation but is possible.  It also show how things can spiral and why players generally take guaranteed money.  So now the league thinks he is worth more but no teams are willing or able to give it to him and he has to risk playing when it could all end on any given play.

[Dessie]

30 minutes ago, drfrey13 said:

They would only poison the well if Carr tries to do the same in a trade.  I do not know how many different ways I can explain it. .

Yeah you are just repeating yourself. If there are teams that are prepared to pay Carr more than $40m gtd which is what you said, then it’s not that big a risk for Carr which was the original point.

[drfrey13]

13 minutes ago, Dessie said:

Yeah you are just repeating yourself. If there are teams that are prepared to pay Carr more than $40m gtd which is what you said, then it’s not that big a risk for Carr which was the original point.

It is though.  Those teams can always go in different directions and not all of them have to be better than Carr.  There is value in not having to compete with other teams.  Carr has value in his guaranteed money.  The Raiders have value by being in control of the situation.  As long as the sides do not get personal it is in the best interest for everyone to work on a trade.

[Dessie]

6 minutes ago, drfrey13 said:

It is though.  Those teams can always go in different directions and not all of them have to be better than Carr.  There is value in not having to compete with other teams.  Carr has value in his guaranteed money.  The Raiders have value by being in control of the situation.  As long as the sides do not get personal it is in the best interest for everyone to work on a trade.

Nah it’s not if as you say Carr knows that there teams happy to pay over the $40m.

[Jeremy408]

 

 

Edited January 30, 2023 by Jeremy408

[Chali21]

1 hour ago, BayRaider said:

How is signing Jimmy only a lost year for 2023? It’s probably a lost year for 2024 as well because Jimmy will get us to 7-10 and we not in range to draft a QB. 

Big difference is the roster should be improved so trading up for a long term guy wouldn’t hurt as much as it does this year. 

[drfrey13]

1 hour ago, Dessie said:

Nah it’s not if as you say Carr knows that there teams happy to pay over the $40m.

Dessie there are teams willing to give him that if he is their best option when they get to the point where they can offer him a contract.  It is a fluid situation and things can change.  He is taking a large bet that they are not going to change and your responses are starting to show me you do not realize that they can change.

[Humble_Beast]

Brady is not coming. Wish cooler heads prevail and DC comes back. He would be so much better year 2 in that system. A shame that can’t happen 

[Rich7sena]

I have a feeling the Raiders will trade for Rodgers. I originally thought Mac Jones, but it looks like the Patriots will continue with him considering the O'Brien hire.

[G]

I'm thinking it doesn't matter WHO our QB is next year as long as they don't cost too much.

Philly vs KC. We all think we need to find the next Mahomey but Eagles could win this and their QB has made a major jump this year but still isn't an all star stat wise. Deadly DEFENSE and building the trenches on both sides has been their focus from multiple coaches all the way back to Ried. Andy got them wins but never the big win even with McNabb at his best. Yet if Philly wins this one it was TWO different coaching staffs and with Hurts (on the rise) and that back-up guy Foles. It's about being hot and deep to not lose while players are injured. I forgot Suh went to Philly and wondered why at the time. It's a TEAM and even though those picks don't always work out (Barnett) they still have a 'system' of building a solid foundation down in the trenches. It's time we do the same. So I'd offer our 2nd NOW to get #3 and if a QB we drool over (Young) is there then make the pick. OR get Anderson and get our DT in free agency. Also get a RT in FA and draft IOL in 3rd and 4th rounds. NO TRADING PICKS FOR ANOTHER TEAMS QB! Would love Rodgers but not what it would cost to do that move.