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Rich7sena

2018 NFL Draft Prospect Pro Comps

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2 hours ago, Rich7sena said:

Lynch also got this comps when he was coming out and I don't see it at all.

Do you think Allen is athletic enough to call designed runs for? Do you think he can run QB power or rip off 60 yard runs? I know you say best case but these traits are inseparable from a Newton comp.

I think he's athletic enough to handle QB designed runs. Is he Cam Newton in terms of being able to run like a deer? No, but he's going to be faster than most NFL lineman and some NFL linebackers. That's the threshold I want my QB to be able to break.

I think the Cam Newton comparisons are more as a passer. I like the comparison. He's got a monster arm with excellent zip. He can flick the wrist and drive the football. But he doesn't seem to have a great feel for zone coverages. It takes him too long to decipher what's going on in coverage and leads to sacks or late throws. Cam Newton at Auburn used to make 1 read and then take off. Allen keeps his eyes down the field better than Cam did at Auburn, but Cam's offense called for him to do the 1-read and run style; Allen's did not.

I have no problems with the Cam--Lynch/Allen comparisons and have made those myself. Cam is a better athlete, but both of those QB's had similar arm strength, size, and collegiate playing styles. Cam Newton made tremendous strides as a passer, but as prospects, they are all similar throwers.

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On 12/23/2017 at 11:54 AM, Rich7sena said:

A few more with some amendments:

QB

  • Sam Darnold - Jameis Winston
  • Josh Rosen - Matt Ryan
  • Baker Mayfield - Jeff Garcia   
  • Josh Allen - Joe Flacco
  • Kurt Benkert - Nick Foles
  • Mason Rudolph - Derek Anderson

(Garcia's arm is about 50x weaker than Mayfield's. They are similar athletically, but Mayfield is a significantly better passer, especially down the field. People are really sleeping on Mayfield's arm, which I believe is stronger than Darnold's and Rosen's.)

RB

  • Saquon Barkley - Ladainian Tomlinson
  • Nick Chubb - Doug Martin
  • Damien Harris - Ahmad Bradshaw
  • Derrius Guice - Ezekiel Elliott
  • Reshaad Penny - Jonathan Stewart
  • Kerryon Johnson - DeMarco Murray

(Penny doesn't seem nearly as powerful as Stewart. Penny looks like a punishing back, but he's more of a straight line burner than he is a physical bruiser like Stewart is.)

WR

  • Cavin Ridley - Stefan Diggs
  • Michael Gallup - Marvin Jones
  • Cortland Sutton - Brandon Marshall

(Boy I hate Sutton as a prospect. B-Marsh is a very rich comparison. He's not as quick as Marshall and struggles to run routes that aren't linear. I think teams will easily lock him up. He reminds me of Dwayne Jarrett.)

DL

  • Maurice Hurst - Mike Daniels
  • Vita Vea - Damon Harrison
  • Da'Ron Payne - Nick Fairley 

(Fairley was so explosive off the line. Payne is good, but he's not that kind of an athlete in my opinion. I don't like Maurice Hurst so comparing him to Daniels seems rich. Daniels is built like an NFL interior DL, where Hurst looks stuck between UT and DE.)

Edge

  • Bradley Chubb - Tamba Hali
  • Harold Landry - Cliff Avril
  • Arden Key - Robert Quinn
  • Jeff Holland - Dante Fowler

(I think the Robert Quinn comp might be a little rich for Key. Key has excellent potential, but really hasn't proven to be anything other than pure potential. Quinn had multiple pass rush moves, legit run defense, and excellent hands.)

 

DB

  • Denzel Ward - Jason Verrett
  • Tarvarus McFadden - Sean Smith
  • Minkah Fitzpatrick - Micah Hyde
  • Derwin James - Reshad Jones
  • Joshua Jackson - Josh Norman

(Criminally underrating Derwin James. Reshard Jones is a very good player, but James is not even in the same category as an athlete. He's also infinitely better in coverage. They are similar as roll down safeties, but you can do so much more with Derwin James, who can play all over your defense instead of a pure SS role.)

 

 

 

I like most of these. Especially the Micah Hyde Fitzpatrick comparison. Hyde is a nice player, but I'm not spending a top 5 pick on Hyde/Fitzy like some people are lobbying for.

Josh Norman--Josh Jackson is spot-on.

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2 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

I think he's athletic enough to handle QB designed runs. Is he Cam Newton in terms of being able to run like a deer? No, but he's going to be faster than most NFL lineman and some NFL linebackers. That's the threshold I want my QB to be able to break.

I think the Cam Newton comparisons are more as a passer. I like the comparison. He's got a monster arm with excellent zip. He can flick the wrist and drive the football. But he doesn't seem to have a great feel for zone coverages. It takes him too long to decipher what's going on in coverage and leads to sacks or late throws. Cam Newton at Auburn used to make 1 read and then take off. Allen keeps his eyes down the field better than Cam did at Auburn, but Cam's offense called for him to do the 1-read and run style; Allen's did not.

I have no problems with the Cam--Lynch/Allen comparisons and have made those myself. Cam is a better athlete, but both of those QB's had similar arm strength, size, and collegiate playing styles. Cam Newton made tremendous strides as a passer, but as prospects, they are all similar throwers.

I don't think Allen is going to outrun most NFL linebackers. I don't think he'll outrun a the vast majority of NFL ends. To me, Allen's athleticism is neutral: won't hold him back, but it isn't a big "plus".

To me, comparing Lynch and Allen to Newton ignores how much running is a part of Newton's game. Without his athleticism, I'd say Newton is a borderline starting quarterback.

 

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I expect Josh Allen to run sub 4.7. The average NFL LB'er runs over a 4.70. There are plenty that run in the 4.6 range or better, but most NFL LB's are in the 4.7 range IIRC.

 

I wouldn't say that Lynch or Allen are going to be better than NFL starting QB's though. I would have guessed solid starters for both, giving them peak Madden ratings of 79-81 range with the potential to be much more given their ht/wt/spd/arm talent. Looks like I was off on Paxton Lynch thus far though...he apparently has been dookie.

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2 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

I expect Josh Allen to run sub 4.7. The average NFL LB'er runs over a 4.70. There are plenty that run in the 4.6 range or better, but most NFL LB's are in the 4.7 range IIRC.

 

I wouldn't say that Lynch or Allen are going to be better than NFL starting QB's though. I would have guessed solid starters for both, giving them peak Madden ratings of 79-81 range with the potential to be much more given their ht/wt/spd/arm talent. Looks like I was off on Paxton Lynch thus far though...he apparently has been dookie.

I just don't know where you see sub 4.7. Lynch, who to me looked like the better athlete at Memphis, ran a 4.86. To me, sub 4.7 is legit NFL speed for most positions.

Further, 3-cone time goes a long way to determining how effective a runner Allen will be. He doesn't look like a very coordinated runner.

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12 minutes ago, Rich7sena said:

I just don't know where you see sub 4.7. Lynch, who to me looked like the better athlete at Memphis, ran a 4.86. To me, sub 4.7 is legit NFL speed for most positions.

Further, 3-cone time goes a long way to determining how effective a runner Allen will be. He doesn't look like a very coordinated runner.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-scouts-are-already-salivating-over-the-wyoming-qb-who-could-go-no-1-in-2018/

According to CBS, he ran a 4.6 40 in the spring at 235. Not that it matters much, but I think he's a little more athletic than you give him credit for. Heck look at this run while trying to focus downfield... 

http://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=21200419

No he's not Cam Newton, but this guy can run. 

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Pro comp for Leighton Vander Esch? He might be my fave MLB prospect in the class, but I don't know who to compare him to. Maybe Daryl Washington?

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Posted (edited)
On 12/31/2017 at 9:44 PM, jetskid007 said:

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-scouts-are-already-salivating-over-the-wyoming-qb-who-could-go-no-1-in-2018/

According to CBS, he ran a 4.6 40 in the spring at 235. Not that it matters much, but I think he's a little more athletic than you give him credit for. Heck look at this run while trying to focus downfield... 

http://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=21200419

No he's not Cam Newton, but this guy can run. 

We’ve seen those springtime 40s come up well short so we’ll see.

I got a couple more comps:

Ogbonnia Okoronkwo - Melvin Ingram

Sony Michel - Lamar Miller

Edited by Rich7sena

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17 minutes ago, Jeezla said:

Pro comp for Leighton Vander Esch? He might be my fave MLB prospect in the class, but I don't know who to compare him to. Maybe Daryl Washington?

My first thought was Sean Lee, also Roquan Smith = Johnathan Vilma 

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1 hour ago, One Punch Man said:

Kerryon Johnson - Ronnie Brown

Brown is much bigger than Johnson.

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7 hours ago, Counselor said:

Brown is much bigger than Johnson.

Their listed heights are the same. Brown is heavier by 8 pounds? Even if it’s off by 10-15, they’ve similar running styles. Decent sized backs that run strong but not too strong, elusive, versatile. Opportunistic.

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4 hours ago, One Punch Man said:

Their listed heights are the same. Brown is heavier by 8 pounds? Even if it’s off by 10-15, they’ve similar running styles. Decent sized backs that run strong but not too strong, elusive, versatile. Opportunistic.

I remember Ronnie Brown have a much more balanced frame with a wider overall build. Johnson is pretty narrow with long legs. Honestly, the more I watch the less of a fan I am of Johnson. My original comp for him was early career Demarco Murray, but I don't think he has the long speed Murray had when he was with the Cowboys. Ultimately, I think it's more likely he's Wayne Gallman/Joseph Randle than Demarco Murray.

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2 hours ago, Rich7sena said:

I remember Ronnie Brown have a much more balanced frame with a wider overall build. Johnson is pretty narrow with long legs. Honestly, the more I watch the less of a fan I am of Johnson. My original comp for him was early career Demarco Murray, but I don't think he has the long speed Murray had when he was with the Cowboys. Ultimately, I think it's more likely he's Wayne Gallman/Joseph Randle than Demarco Murray.

Physical stature differences aside, I thought their running styles made them fair comparisons. Shifty, versatile guys. Brown edges him a little in the power department. But they get the most yards they can, always fall forward, types. Both operate the wildcat fairly well. Can catch. 

I don’t know if I’d value Johnson that low. Definitely not the type of athlete Murray was though. But he’s also not as bland of a runner as those two. Maybe more like a poor man’s Melvin Gordon? 

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My beloved Cleveland Browns Version: Worst case scenario comps. 

  • Sam Darnold - Brady Quinn
  • Josh Rosen - Vinny Testaverde
  • Baker Mayfield - Johnny Manziel
  • Josh Allen - Derek Anderson
  • Lamar Jacskon - RGIII
  • Mason Rudolph - Brandon Weeden

Peace!!!

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