Wildcard Round: San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks

[Forge]

8 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Overwhelming favorites? Come on now, you don't have to do this lol. 

Favorites? Sure, but no team is going to be an overwhelming favorite over the Niners, including the Eagles. They have their own flaws. They played their starters yesterday while the Giants had mainly their back ups and the Eagles looked far from great. The HFA is a big thing for them but they won't be more than 3 to 3.5 favorite over us in the conference cship game....If that is the match up and both teams win their respective games leading up to that game. 

I think we matchup awful against the eagles. 

Best offensive line in the league that can 100% shut this defense down, and even if we do break through, we all know how this team struggles containing running quarterbacks. They contain bosa in that one, i think it gets ugly. They can have two high quality receivers that will always be matched up on Lenoir. Their defensive front is going to be a problem for the offensive line. I don't think people realize that they were 2 sacks away from setting an all time record. They had 4 players with 11 sacks lol. 

They lost one game with Hurts in the lineup and it was a freak game where they turned the ball over like 4 times (one of which was an awful missed penalty). 

They are the best team in the NFC when healthy. 

The question is how healthy they will be by the time we have to play them (if both teams get to that point). That's a real issue for them. Lane Johnson is a massive loss right now, but I expect him to go in the playoffs. Josh Sweat is another loss. I don't know what his status is and if he is expected back. 

I think if the Eagles are remotely healthy, we win 3 out of 10 against them. 

[adamq]

2 hours ago, 49ersfan said:

I'll just do a whole playoff prediction rn 

49ers, Chargers, Bills, Vikings, Bengals, Bucs advance

49ers beat Vikings, Chiefs beat Chargers, Bengals beat Bills, Eagles beat Bucs

49ers beat Eagles, Bengals beat Chiefs

49ers beat Bengals

 

I'll give it a go

WC Round..

SF, DAL, MIN

JAX, BAL, BUF

Divisional...

SF beats MIN, DAL beats PHI

BUF beats JAX, BAL beats KC

Conference....

SF>DAL, BUF>BAL

SB...

SF>BUF

CMC gets the MVP, Warner has a case with an int and erasing the Voltron of rbs they have

[Forge]

It's not that the niners can't beat the eagles, but if they are healthy, I would not expect a win at all. 

I do not thing that any other team in the conference should give us real fits, however. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

6 minutes ago, Forge said:

I think we matchup awful against the eagles. 

Best offensive line in the league that can 100% shut this defense down, and even if we do break through, we all know how this team struggles containing running quarterbacks. They contain bosa in that one, i think it gets ugly. They can have two high quality receivers that will always be matched up on Lenoir. Their defensive front is going to be a problem for the offensive line. I don't think people realize that they were 2 sacks away from setting an all time record. They had 4 players with 11 sacks lol. 

They lost one game with Hurts in the lineup and it was a freak game where they turned the ball over like 4 times (one of which was an awful missed penalty). 

They are the best team in the NFC when healthy. 

The question is how healthy they will be by the time we have to play them (if both teams get to that point). That's a real issue for them. Lane Johnson is a massive loss right now, but I expect him to go in the playoffs. Josh Sweat is another loss. I don't know what his status is and if he is expected back. 

I think if the Eagles are remotely healthy, we win 3 out of 10 against them. 

Check how many times Hurts got sacked yesterday and in general this season. Fine OL for sure, but not impossible to break through. I am definitely concerned with the Lenoir vs Brown/Smith match up, but our run defense was stout all season. Do you see their defense stopping our offense? Because I do not. They can be had in the slot and I see Shanny attacking the middle of the field all game long. If any team wins that one by 10+, it is more likely it will be us rather than them. It's going to be a good, competitive game coming down the wire. No way do I make them the big favorites in a match up against us. 

[Forge]

Just now, J-ALL-DAY said:

Check how many times Hurts got sacked yesterday and in general this season. Fine OL for sure, but not impossible to break through. I am definitely concerned with the Lenoir vs Brown/Smith match up, but our run defense was stout all season. Do you see their defense stopping our offense? Because I do not. They can be had in the slot and I see Shanny attacking the middle of the field all game long. If any team wins that one by 10+, it is more likely it will be us rather than them. It's going to be a good, competitive game coming down the wire. No way do I make them the big favorites in a match up against us. 

Lane Johnson didn't play yesterday which is a very important. But Hurts has a relatively high rate of pressure to sacks compared to the league, and that's understandable. Sometimes he's going to make a break for it and not make it. That's a QB thing more so than an offensive line thing. He's actually top 10 in lowest pressure rate though. 

If we can't contain them up front, they can absolutely contain the offense. I don't know about "stopping". Slow it down, yes. I think it may  be much more of a slog. 

But again, they are bleeding talent with the injuries, so I want to see what the roster looks like by the time we actually get there. 

I would expect the Eagles by a touchdown if both teams are as healthy as can be. 

But who knows...maybe Philly can't handle the pressure of the post season. 

[NFL Network]

22 minutes ago, Forge said:

I think we matchup awful against the eagles. 

Best offensive line in the league that can 100% shut this defense down, and even if we do break through, we all know how this team struggles containing running quarterbacks. They contain bosa in that one, i think it gets ugly. They can have two high quality receivers that will always be matched up on Lenoir. Their defensive front is going to be a problem for the offensive line. I don't think people realize that they were 2 sacks away from setting an all time record. They had 4 players with 11 sacks lol. 

They lost one game with Hurts in the lineup and it was a freak game where they turned the ball over like 4 times (one of which was an awful missed penalty). 

They are the best team in the NFC when healthy. 

The question is how healthy they will be by the time we have to play them (if both teams get to that point). That's a real issue for them. Lane Johnson is a massive loss right now, but I expect him to go in the playoffs. Josh Sweat is another loss. I don't know what his status is and if he is expected back. 

I think if the Eagles are remotely healthy, we win 3 out of 10 against them. 

Yes the Eagles are a bad matchup on paper but let's say Jalen Hurts morphs into the Jalen Hurts pre 2022? If that happens the Eagles have a serious problem against any teams not just the Niners. Hurts is a run first QB and that type tends to hit the wall at some point in the playoffs as he holds the ball too long. The main issue with defending Hurts is that he escapes pressure and runs for big gains or rolls out and throws to expose the Niners coverage. 

As for the Eagles defense I think the Niners can have success running the ball against them as they will need to rely on a run heavy offense since being too pass heavy against them puts Brock at risk for taking sacks.

[Forge]

8 minutes ago, NFL Network said:

Yes the Eagles are a bad matchup on paper but let's say Jalen Hurts morphs into the Jalen Hurts pre 2022? If that happens the Eagles have a serious problem against any teams not just the Niners. Hurts is a run first QB and that type tends to hit the wall at some point in the playoffs as he holds the ball too long. The main issue with defending Hurts is that he escapes pressure and runs for big gains or rolls out and throws to expose the Niners coverage. 

As for the Eagles defense I think the Niners can have success running the ball against them as they will need to rely on a run heavy offense since being too pass heavy against them puts Brock at risk for taking sacks.

That can happen to any team. What if Brock Purdy turns into the college senior that got benched against Iowa last year? That really shouldn't be a consideration when evaluating the teams on paper unless they have shown an a degree of inconsistency in that this year. Hurts has had some good and bad games, but he's been relatively consistent this year. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

9 minutes ago, Forge said:

Lane Johnson didn't play yesterday which is a very important. But Hurts has a relatively high rate of pressure to sacks compared to the league, and that's understandable. Sometimes he's going to make a break for it and not make it. That's a QB thing more so than an offensive line thing. He's actually top 10 in lowest pressure rate though. 

If we can't contain them up front, they can absolutely contain the offense. I don't know about "stopping". Slow it down, yes. I think it may  be much more of a slog. 

But again, they are bleeding talent with the injuries, so I want to see what the roster looks like by the time we actually get there. 

I would expect the Eagles by a touchdown if both teams are as healthy as can be. 

But who knows...maybe Philly can't handle the pressure of the post season. 

Hurts/Minshew got sacked 44 times on 580 dropbacks which is a sack percentage of around 7.5% per dropback.

Before Johnson got hurt (Dallas game), Hurts got sacked 35 times on 460 dropbacks, which is a sack percentage of 7.6% per dropback. And that came with Johnson at RT. There wasn't much of a difference in terms of the sacks the QBs took with or without Johnson in the line up.

I'm not saying they have a bad OL because it certainly is not that but our DL can wreck some havoc as they usually do. Hurts tests the outside often and that's where the secondary can be had so I expect the Eagles offense to come away with a few explosive plays for sure. The question will be, can we slow down their run game? If so, then this is essentially a pick-em game.

The Eagles rush defense did not look good the last two weeks and were sub-par all season. Of course, they made some mid-season additions that helped and Davis missed some time during the season as well. But will Mitchell/CMC/Deebo get going on the ground? I think they will. Then it comes down to how much Shanny can exploit the Eagles slot and middle of the field. If he can, then the offense is going to do what it usually does.

Again, I'm not seeing the Eagles being overwhelming favorites but we may find out one way or another soon enough. 

[Hopper15]

Good to hear Givens is close to returning. Watching Kinlaw yesterday was rough.

[J-ALL-DAY]

1 hour ago, Forge said:

We need Greenlaw to get healthy. 

Yes we do. And honestly, we need Banks to get healthy as well so Brunskill can rotate with Burford. 

Greenlaw is a must though, especially if/when we plays teams like the Cowboys/Eagles. 

[NFL Network]

1 hour ago, Forge said:

That can happen to any team. What if Brock Purdy turns into the college senior that got benched against Iowa last year? That really shouldn't be a consideration when evaluating the teams on paper unless they have shown an a degree of inconsistency in that this year. Hurts has had some good and bad games, but he's been relatively consistent this year. 

Correct I've said before the main reason why I won't anoint the Niners as the favorites in the NFC is b/c of the unknown at the QB position. If the Niners had a Steve Young type of QB heading in that would put them over the top of the competition as the only glaring weaknesses would be in the secondary and the kickoff coverage unit. Minus the QB position this maybe the closest the Niners have ever had to the Steve Young teams heading into the playoffs.

[N4L]

16 hours ago, StevenK said:

Def we will have to be smart with Lenoir and coverage

When we played them on TNF, we had Ward shadow DK a lot. LOVE that matchup for us. Ward did not shy away and DK was extremely frustrated. Ward has the size, length, strength and ball skills to match up with him. Crazy this man was a UDFA

Lenior will matchup fine with Lockett or whoever else they have. His coverage is good. He has not seemed to fold, and it appears that he has not lost confidence in himself. He has always been a confident guy. 

16 hours ago, StevenK said:

Run the ball and we will win! Sea is one of the worse run def team.

I expect Elijah to be heavily involved this week. They are weak up the middle, their LBs are bad at run fitting. We are a nightmare matchup for them. 

[Forge]

1 hour ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Hurts/Minshew got sacked 44 times on 580 dropbacks which is a sack percentage of around 7.5% per dropback.

Before Johnson got hurt (Dallas game), Hurts got sacked 35 times on 460 dropbacks, which is a sack percentage of 7.6% per dropback. And that came with Johnson at RT. There wasn't much of a difference in terms of the sacks the QBs took with or without Johnson in the line up.

I'm not saying they have a bad OL because it certainly is not that but our DL can wreck some havoc as they usually do. Hurts tests the outside often and that's where the secondary can be had so I expect the Eagles offense to come away with a few explosive plays for sure. The question will be, can we slow down their run game? If so, then this is essentially a pick-em game.

The Eagles rush defense did not look good the last two weeks and were sub-par all season. Of course, they made some mid-season additions that helped and Davis missed some time during the season as well. But will Mitchell/CMC/Deebo get going on the ground? I think they will. Then it comes down to how much Shanny can exploit the Eagles slot and middle of the field. If he can, then the offense is going to do what it usually does.

Again, I'm not seeing the Eagles being overwhelming favorites but we may find out one way or another soon enough. 

I hear what you're saying, and perhaps I'm not making myself clear. 

Part of the reason that the sack rate is what it is is just the style of play Hurts has. He's going to give up more sacks than he should (it's not crazy, maybe 5-7 more sacks for every 100 pressures). Also, I think all of the giants sacks yesterdays came on blitzes, which is a dangerous way to live and die for sure. 

But more importantly and more concerningly, he's also facing pressure at a significantly lower rate. He's top 10 and most of the guys ahead of him are some of the quickest in the league at getting rid of the ball (Brady, Burrow, Dalton, Jimmy). That line gives him a looooooooooooooooot of clean looks, and that is the problem. If he drops back 30 times and we sack him 2-3 times but only got pressure on him 7 times, that's not great. We lose that battle. 

 

Could the 49ers win that battle up front? Absolutely. But I have concerns that they can't and my projection would be that they don't.  I had that same concern going into the Chiefs game. Good offensive lines are tough and we are super dependent on that pass rush getting home. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

3 minutes ago, Forge said:

I hear what you're saying, and perhaps I'm not making myself clear. 

Part of the reason that the sack rate is what it is is just the style of play Hurts has. He's going to give up more sacks than he should (it's not crazy, maybe 5-7 more sacks for every 100 pressures). 

But more importantly and more concerningly, he's also facing pressure at a significantly lower rate. He's top 10 and most of the guys ahead of him are some of the quickest in the league at getting rid of the ball (Brady, Burrow, Dalton, Jimmy). That line gives him a looooooooooooooooot of clean looks, and that is the problem. If he drops back 30 times and we sack him 2-3 times but only got pressure on him 9 times, that's not great. We lose that battle. 

 

could the 49ers win that battle up front? Absolutely. But I have concerns that they can't. 

I mean pressure rate is kind of a subjective stat but I don't doubt the Eagles don't have a good OL, because they do. But he IS going to get sacked and that is big as that will kill drives and give this defense a chance to make a stop. Anyways, we will have time to talk about this match up.....But as of now there is no guarantee we even get it so back to Seattle..............

I wonder if Shanny goes to Mitchell earlier this week and gives him around 5-6 first half carries? He's just a talented runner and is a stronger runner than CMC and that's what is going to be needed against this front. The lowest YPC he's had this season in a game is 4.9 lol. CMC is great and needs his touches as always but if he can't get going early on the ground, no need to keep Mitchell on the sidelines. 

 

 

[adamq]

Washington showed the blueprint on how to beat them, and it is reliant on turnovers and limiting their opportunities.. the score reads 32-21, but it was really a 5 point game.. Hurts fumbled twice in that 4th quarter and had a chance to win with ~3 minutes left, but went 3 and out. 

Hurts has only thrown 6 INTs this season, but he has 8 fumbles, bringing his total to 26 in the past 3 years. Thats not Fields, Ryan, or even Josh Allen level bad, but still significant and a flaw in his game someone like Greenlaw could exploit

40 mins TOP for Washington in that game.. they are the only team w a higher per game TOP average than Kyle's Niners (who are tied with Cinci at 31:51)

Edited January 9, 2023 by adamq