MKnight82 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 (edited) https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/washington-commanders/cap/2023/ 2023 Projected NFL Cap per Team: $225,000,000 Rollover: $6,703,321 Subtotal: $231,703,321 Dead Cap: -$13,817,154 Practical Total Cap: $217,886,167 2023 Estimated Cap Space Before Moves: $19,595,994 First step - get rid of Dan, completely rebrand the organization. I'm assuming we retain the coaching staff. Cuts QB Carson Wentz – saves $26,176,470 - obvious TE Logan Thomas - $3,500,000 dead cap, saves estimated $5,250,000 – he’s over the hill LT Charles Leno - $4,500,000 dead cap, saves $8,000,000 – time to move on Pending FAs DT Da’Ron Payne – Franchise Tag – estimated $18.27 (the 2022 amount for DT was $17.4 I escalated 5%) OG Trai Turner – no offer – Sam Cosmi will be moving to RG full time. QB Taylor Heinicke – 3 year deal, $30 mil total. No guaranteed money after Year 1. Year 1 cap hit of $8 mil. Tyler Larsen – no offer – he will be 33, time to move on. LB Cole Holcomb – this is the hardest pending FA we have. If we give him an extension we’re basically stuck with him as a starter probably for the next 3 years. If we want to upgrade him we essentially have to let him walk for nothing cause he will be too expensive to retain as a backup. We often only play 2 linebackers so there’s no way we have 3 expensive linebackers on the roster. I’m going to let Holcomb walk in this mock and upgrade the position. DE Efe Obada – no offer – he will be 32, I think we can do better. WR Cam Sims – no offer – He’s too expensive for what he brings to the roster. LB Jon Bostic – no offer – lol OC Nick Martin – no offer – he is one of the worst olineman I’ve ever seen. CB Rachad Wildgoose – EFRA $779,625 (his contract was $742,500 this year I bumped it 5%) OG Wes Schweitzer – 3 year deal, $15 mil total (his previous contract was 3 years $13.5 mil). Year 1 cap hit of $4 mil. CB Danny Johnson – 1 year $1,086,750 – 5% raise from last year. DL Daniel Wise – EFRA $866,250 (his contract was $825,000 this year I bumped it 5%) LB David Mayo – no offer – I would like to upgrade this spot S Jeremy Reaves – no offer – he’s 28, he’s played less than 3% of defensive snaps this season and he’s going to be pushing for over a million a year in cap. We can draft someone cheaper to play ST. RB Jon Williams – no offer – draft someone cheaper LB Khaleke Hudson – no offer – we signed Bostic to play instead of letting Hudson on the field when Holcomb got injured. I just don’t see what he contributes. Cap Space After Resignings: $26,019,839 FREE AGENCY LB TJ Edwards: 5 year deal, $52.5 mil total, $20 mil guaranteed. Estimated $8.5 mil Year 1 cap hit. Yes this is a lot of money for a guy making around a million dollars this year, but he’s the leader of the Eagles defense (he wears the green dot) and leads them in tackles (he’s 7th in the NFL in total tackles). He plays all 3 downs, solid in coverage, and knows how to line up a defense. He’s basically exactly what we need at linebacker, plus we can hurt a division rival in the process. I think we will have to pay him a lot to make him come over to us, and to make him too expensive for the Eagles to retain. LT Andre Dillard: 4 year deal, $37 mil total, $9.25 mil guaranteed. Estimated $6.25 mil Year 1 cap hit. Yep another Eagle. Dillard is a former first round pick that has had some bum luck with injuries and lost his starting gig to a surprise camp standout. When he has played he has played well. This contract is the exact contract we gave Charles Leno, which would make him around the 16th highest paid LT in the league (on an average annual salary basis). There would only be $3 mil guaranteed after Year 1 so we could easily get out of this contract if he were to bust. TE Foster Moreau: 3 year deal, $24 mil total, $9 mil guaranteed. Estimated $6.0 mil Year 1 cap hit. He’s only 25 years old and has been stuck behind Waller on the depth chart. When he has played he has looked solid and may be ready for a bigger role. Bring him in to start because I think we have too many other needs to fill in the draft. Cap after Free Agency: $5,269,839 DRAFT I’m going to use PFF’s draft generator, I won’t be selecting anyone that has already been taken off the board by our pick. https://www.pff.com/draft/nfl-mock-draft-simulator?ref=ecd78ad1-efa3-4c84-b5c9-64ba3d3f2db8 *The biggest downside to using this mock generator, which I found out later, is that it does not include comp picks. Round 1 (16) – Ok so we’re on the clock at 16. I don’t see any point in trading up in this draft, I don’t think we should be trading away draft assets with our FO/coaching staff in limbo. Players that were of interest that are gone by pick 16 are OT Peter Skoronski, OT Paris Johnson, and for some reason they have Stanford QB Tanner McKee going 13 to the Jets. So that leaves the BPAs as Alabama S Brian Branch, ND TE Michael Mayer, Georgia OT Broderick Jones, Florida QB Anthony Richardson, and Florida OG O’Cyrus Torrence. Lets break down these one by one. I don’t understand why every mock draft has us taking a CB in the first round, the justification in every mock is that we cut William Jackson so we need to replace him with a first round pick. That is nonsense, St Juste played fantastic for us this year, the last thing we need is yet another boundary CB. What we do need is someone who can play in the slot, and Brian Branch can do that. He can also play FS, or pretty much wherever you want to put him in the secondary. I don’t think he would be a bad selection for us because it fills one of the only needs we have on defense, but the offense just needs so much more work so I think the resource of our first round pick should probably go to the offense. Then there’s Mayer, who I like. I like his size and that he can block decently. I also think TE is a huge need for us and that it’s a position we could really use an infusion of talent at. However, I can’t think of a single first round TE that was worth the selection. It just seems like you can spend a mid round pick on a big bodied TE and that pick has just as much of a chance of turning out as a first rounder. So I’m passing on Mayer. I’ll lump Broderick and Torrence in together here. Broderick I think brings position versatility, we could probably try him out at LT first and if that doesn’t work he could settle at either RT or Guard. Torrence on the other hand is probably strickly a Guard. Torrence (6’5” 347 lbs) is bigger than Broderick (6’4” 310”), but Torrence is pushing the limit on size IMO. He is a risk of eating himself out of the league. I’ll mention Oklahoma’s OT Anton Harrison here too. Seems like he’s more of a finesse LT, who we already have in Sam Cosmi and he hasn’t been great, so I’d like to go in a different direction than that. Then there’s Florida QB Anthony Richardson. I have serious reservations about taking a first round QB with the FO/staff in limbo. I also have a lot of questions about the QBs in this draft class. Bryce Young is talented but he’s 5’11” (I think that’s being generous) 185 lbs. Kyler Murray is currently the shortest QB at 5’10” in the league, but he’s 207 lbs. Russell Wilson is 5’11” but he’s 206 lbs. There’s no precedent for an NFL QB to be that short and light. I wouldn’t touch Bryce Young with any first round pick, I just think he’s going to be constantly injured. Then there’s CJ Stroud, I have no interest in drafting another Ohio State QB, they always bust because they are carried by premium skill position players. You can call that irrational but that is my opinion and this is my mock. Then there’s Will Levis, who from what I can tell has a strong arm and that is it. He’s only 6’3”, so its not like he’s some physical specimen like Josh Allen or Justin Herbert. He’s not a scrambler and his accuracy is definitely questionable at times. I just don’t see it with this guy. Then there is Richardson, 6’4” 232 lbs who will reportedly run a 4.40 at the combine. He struggles at a passer right now, only completing 53% of his passes this season, but added 713 rushing yards this year. I guess where I’m going with all of this is, if I were to take a first round QB I think I’d want to take one with the highest ceiling. To me, out of these 4 the highest ceiling would come from Richardson. He’s also the biggest risk, but we could sit him for the entire season and let him learn behind Heinicke. With the 16th pick in the NFL Draft the Washington Whatevers select: OT/OG Broderick Jones, Georgia https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/Player/Broderick-Jones-OL-Georgia - I decided to go with Jones for multiple reasons. The first is, I know Anthony Richardson was available for me here to take but in most mock drafts I’ve seen he goes in the Top 10. So I think its kind of questionable for him to be available. The second is the versatility he brings, I think he will work out somewhere and we really need an infusion of talent at Tackle. Round 2 (47) – on the clock at 47, the BPA are Ohio State OC Luke Wypler, GT’s DE/DT Keion White, K State’s OG Cooper Beebe, Iowa’s LB Jack Campbell, & TCU’s CB Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson. Wypler would be a safe pick. He’s from a big program, former 4 star recruit and can play either Center or Guard. Beebe is bigger but is probably just a guard. Still, I’ve seen Beebe projected higher on some sites. I just took Oline in the first though. Jack Campbell is 6’5” 246 lbs, known more as a downhill thumper than a pass coverage guy, he may be more of an OLB than a true MLB. He reminds me a little of former Washington player Marcus Washington, a true linebacker but can bring some pass rush too. We don’t really have a linebacker like him on the roster (except for maybe Jamin Davis). He could be an interesting 3rd linebacker in traditional sets with Davis and TJ Edwards. Keion White is a really interesting prospect, at 6’5” 290 lbs he is capable of playing either DE or DT. White transferred from ODU to GT, and is known as a stout run defender who is capable of also rushing the passer. He profiles very similarly to Preston Smith imo. He could be a rotational player who is also insurance against Sweat or Young leaving in FA, similar to what the team did with Mathis in the draft last year. I also think there’s some wisdom to doubling down on your strengths, and just making sure we have a sick Dline out on the field at all times. I’ve seen Hodges-Tomlinson projected to go all over the place, and this early in the process its hard to tell, but somewhere around the 3rd round seems about right. So this is a bit early for him, but he’s the nephew of Ladainian Tomlinson and is exactly the kind of player our secondary needs. He’s undersized but an explosive athlete capable of playing in the slot. With the 47th pick in the NFL Draft the Washington Whatevers select: LB Jack Campbell, Iowa https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/Player/Jack-Campbell-LB-Iowa - I went back and forth on this pick a bunch. I even considered trading down. I think one of the Olineman may be the actual BPA here. I also think taking Keion White here might be a low key brilliant move. But ultimately it came down to the huge need we have at linebacker. Jon Bostic and David Mayo combined for a total of 45% of all defensive snaps played this season. That cannot happen again. I know it was because Holcomb was hurt and we generally only play 2 linebackers at a time, but that could easily happen again next year. Edward/Davis/Campbell becomes the full linebacker core and finalizes a front 7 that should be formidable for years. Round 3 (98) – BPA in the 3rd is Syracuse OT Matthew Bergeron, Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker, Stanford’s CB Kyu Blu Kelly, Tennessee’s OT Darnell Wright, & Michigan’s OC Olusegun Oluwatimi Bergeron has good size at 6’5” 322 lbs and would give us another option at tackle. The issue is I already drafted a potential tackle in the first round. Oluwatimi is a very experienced Center but this might be a little early for him. Unfortunately I didn’t see a lot of talent available for interior lineman at this spot of the draft. Wright is similar to Bergeron but is a former 5 star recruit out of high school, so he comes with some pedigree. Wright is also slightly bigger at 6’6” 335 lbs. If I were to go oline here I’d probably take Wright just because of his upside. Then there are Hooker and Kelly, who I think are the true BPAs here. Hooker is a solid athlete that played at a big program. He’s 6’4” 220 lbs and completed 69.2% of his passes this year, with 3,135 yards and 27 TDs. He also ran for an additional 786 yards. He would give us another option in the QB room next year. Kelly is a former track star in the long jump, is obviously smart enough to attend Stanford, and his father played in the NFL for 11 years. He doesn’t have a ton of experience in the slot but he’s a solid tackler and good in press coverage, so I think he could covert to the slot in the NFL (as well as provide solid depth outside). With the 98th pick in the NFL Draft the Washington Whatevers select: QB Hendon Hooker, Tennessee https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/Player/Hendon-Hooker-QB-VirginiaTech - I just took a QB to take a QB. Until we’ve locked down our full time starter we should just be taking as many flyers on ones until we find the answer. He will likely ride the bench all season but that is fine. Round 4 (118) – Ok, well Kelly has fallen to this pick so that is who I’m going with. With the 118th pick in the NFL Draft the Washington Whatevers select: CB Kyu Blu Kelly, Stanford https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/Player/Kyu Blu-Kelly-CB-Stanford - He comes in to start in the slot. Round 5 (151) – BPA are Maryland DE Durell Nchami, Georgia’s OC Sedrick Van Pran, San Jose St DE Viliami Fehoko Nchami is 6’4” 260 lbs and had 3 sacks this past year. He is known as a raw athlete who needs refinement but played at a solid program. Van Pran is Broderick’s teammate and is a former big time recruit. I question whether he will actually be available this late in the real draft but true Centers do fall sometimes. Fehoko is from a smaller school but has produced a total of 26 sacks over the past 3 years. With the 151st pick in the NFL Draft the Washington Whatevers select: DE Viliami Fehoko, San Jose State https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/Player/Viliami-Fehoko-DE-SanJoséState - He can be a rotational pass rusher for our defense. He is another player who’s current projection is all over the place. I’ve seen some people have him as a late 2nd round prosect and others say he will be an UDFA. Production is production though, and he gets a lot of sacks. Round 6 (192) – BPA are FSU S Akeem Dent, Ole Miss OG Nick Broeker, Michigan TE Luke Schoonmaker With the 192nd pick in the NFL Draft the Washington Whatevers select: TE Luke Schoonmaker https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/Player/Luke-Schoonmaker-TE-Michigan - Went with Schoonmaker because he’s a big bodied TE (6’6” 250 lbs) that is a good blocker. Round 6 (215) - With the 215th pick in the NFL Draft the Washington Whatevers select: OC Juice Scruggs, Penn State https://www.si.com/college/pennstate/football/penn-state-football-juice-scruggs-discusses-nfl-draft-future - He could have some serious medical red flags but if healthy he should be great depth. Round 7 (235) – With the 235th pick in the NFL Draft the Washington Whatevers select: LB Aubry Miller Jr., Jackson State https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/Player/Aubrey-MillerJr-LB-Missouri - Linebacker depth. Draft Salaries To calculate the salaries for the incoming rookies I’ve utilized the rookie pay scale from 2022 and escalated all of the salaries 5%. For comparison, the following list has us estimated to require a draft pool of $9,530,805. The 5% estimate has a total of $9,295,855 which is pretty darn close. https://overthecap.com/draft All of the draft picks won’t end up counting against the cap because of the 51 rule (only the top 51 expensive players count against the cap). Cap Space Remaining After Draft Picks: $1,522,820 Cap Space Calculations 2023 Cap $225,000,000 2022 Rollover $6,703,321 Subtotal $231,703,321 Carryover Dead Cap -$13,817,154 Dead Money from My Cuts -$8,000,000 Sum of Top 51 Cap -$208,363,347 Remaining Cap Space $1,522,820 This is probably not enough functional cap space to make moves throughout the season, so we will probably have to throw in 1 or 2 restructure to cap $5 mil or so additional space but I’m not going to project those. Additionally we could just resign Payne to an extension, or cut someone like McCain or McKissoc for space. FINAL ROSTER Washington Whatevers Offense Skill Players QB Age Cap HB Age Cap FB Age Cap WR Age Cap TE Age Cap T Heinicke 29 $8.00 B Robinson 23 $1.22 T McLaurin 27 $10.78 F Moreau 25 $6.00 S Howell 22 $0.96 A Gibson 24 $1.57 C Samuel 26 $13.00 J Bates 25 $1.12 H Hooker 24 $0.97 JD McKissoc 29 $3.25 J Dotson 22 $3.42 C Turner 22 $0.95 D Brown 23 $1.35 C Hodges 23 $0.88 D Milne 23 $0.96 A Rogers 25 $0.88 L Schoonmaker 23 - Offensive Lineman LT Age Cap LG Age Cap C Age Cap RG Age Cap RT Age Cap A Lillard 27 $6.25 A Norwell 31 $5.12 C Roullier 29 $12.87 S Cosmi 23 $1.81 Broderick Jones 24 $2.87 S Charles 23 $1.21 J Scruggs 23 - W Schweitzer 29 $4.00 C Lucas 31 $3.75 C Paul 24 $0.90 Defensive Players LE Age Cap DT Age Cap RE Age Cap LOLB Age Cap ROLB Age Cap C Young 23 $11.00 J Allen 27 $21.50 M Sweat 26 $11.50 J Campbell 22 $1.43 J Davis 24 $3.76 J Smith-Williams 25 $1.03 D Payne 25 $18.27 S Toney 25 $0.96 D Harris 25 $0.94 A Miller Jr. 22 - C Toohill 26 $1.01 P Mathis 24 $1.71 V Fehoko 23 - J Ridgeway 23 $0.87 D Wise 26 $0.87 Defensive Players MLB Age Cap CB Age Cap FS Age Cap SS Age Cap TJ Edwards 26 $8.50 K Fuller 27 $11.63 D Forrest 23 $1.02 K Curl 23 $1.04 B St. Juste 25 $1.39 B McCain 29 $5.12 P Butler 22 $1.07 K Blu Kelly 23 $0.86 D Johnson 27 $1.09 C Holmes 25 $0.89 T Castro-Fields 23 $0.87 R Wildgoose 22 - Special Teams K Age Cap P Age Cap LS Age Cap J Slye 26 $2.35 T Way 32 $3.50 C Cheeseman 24 $0.97 Retained via Re-signing Free Agent Signing Draft Pick Final Thoughts - Our cap space didn't go a long way, even after only a few minor signings. - If we decide to go with another veteran QB addition, I don't think we will be able to make any other meaningful additions in free agency (like this past year). - Payne and Allen alone might be eating up around 18% of our total cap by next year. I'm not sure if that is practical long term, depends on how much the cap goes up. But with our DEs extensions right around the corner you can see why they drafted Mathis (it is also why I seriously considered a DE in the 2nd round). - You can fill in some of the bottom of the depth chart depth with UDFAs, like 6th or 7th WRs, additional linebackers, etc. These players won't count against the cap. - I think you'd have to consider carrying only 5 WRs in this scenario, because so many of the bottom roster TEs are practically WRs. We would likely carry 5 TEs. - When doing the mock draft I was surprised about the lack of premium talent at QB, but the depth at QB. I think we can get a solid QB in the 3rd round that won't be much different from a QB we could take at 16. The opposite of that appears to be with Oline, there are some decent first round options but it doesn't appear to be a deep Oline class at all. Edited January 10 by MKnight82 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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