Pastor Dillon Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 We keep debating the QB issue, so I thought it would be a good idea to really discuss who needs a QB and where they are drafting. Also we need to discuss who might go after a Derek Carr or Aaron Rodgers lets go pick by pick 1. Bears - They seem locked into Fields. I wouldn’t be, but they seem to be. 3. Cardinals - hard to see them taking a QB when they have a number 1 overall pick who just signed an extension. 4. Colts - they need a QB, without a doubt. They tried the vet route with Ryan and it didn’t work. I’d bet big that they are taking a QB in round 1 5. - Seahawks - one of the hardest teams to gage. Geno just made a pro bowl and they are in the playoffs. I would say that the best bet is they will start Geno, Rodgers or Carr next year. 6. - Lions - they just came out and said Goff was their QB. I would be shocked to see them go QB here 7- Raiders. - they need a QB big time if they really are moving on from Carr. Unless mcdaniels just wants a vet, I would put them in the running for a QB. 8- Atlanta - they need a QB but they have a lot of needs and they have 3rd rounder who played decent at the end of the season. Idk what they are gonna do. 9- Carolina - definitely need a QB. They have some ammo to move up as well. They probably think they are a QB away from being competitive. 10 - eagles - no chance they take a QB but they are the prime trade partner for anyone potentially moving to 10 to take a QB that slides. 11. Titans - they need a QB, I’d be shocked if they took one though at 11. 13 - Jets - I’m calling Aaron Rodgers to the Jets right now. 14- Patriots - have to give Mac Jones another year 15 - Packers - Have been grooming Love for a few years now. 16 - Commanders - desperate for a QB 17 - Steelers - just took one in round 1 18 - lions - probably not. looking at Playoff teams and you see Tampa Bay as a team that would want a QB so by this calculation, QB needy teams are Houston Indy Vegas Atlanta carolina Titans Jets Commanders Bucs thats 9 teams there are 4 potential 1st rounders (Young, Stroud, Levis, Richardson) there are 4 starting level Vets who could be available (Jimmy G, Carr, Rodgers, Brady) I wouldn’t be shocked to see it play out like this: Texans - Young Colts - Stroud Raiders - Brady Atlanta - Derek Carr Carolina - Levis Titans - stay with Tannehill Jets - Aaron Rodgers Commanders - Jimmy G Bucs - Richardson thoughts? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhorse Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 (edited) What if the Bears traded Fields to the Colts and selected a QB? Not saying I want this, but stranger things have happened. Edited January 11, 2023 by Warhorse Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 4 hours ago, Warhorse said: What if the Bears traded Fields to the Colts and selected a QB? Not saying I want this, but stranger things have happened. I’m starting to put a bit more thought into this - at least the idea that Fields is moved and the Bears select a QB. WHO he’s traded to remains to be seen, but Fields on the move is a definite possibility. Ryan Poles/Matt Eberflus didn’t draft Fields; This was a Ryan Pace/Matt Nagy pick, so they’re not really tied to him. They can say they wouldn’t draft a QB unless they’re blown away by them, but why even say that to begin with? Just stand pat on Fields if you’re confident in him. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pastor Dillon Posted January 11, 2023 Author Share Posted January 11, 2023 7 hours ago, Warhorse said: What if the Bears traded Fields to the Colts and selected a QB? Not saying I want this, but stranger things have happened. I don’t think Fields is a legit NfL QB so I doubt anyone would give them real value for him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pastor Dillon Posted January 14, 2023 Author Share Posted January 14, 2023 Here’s another thought, has the QB position become so valuable that guys go number 1 simply because they are a QB? Look at the QBs taken number 1 overall in recent history 2021 Lawrence 2020 Burrow 2019 Murray 2018 Mayfield 2016 Goff 2015 Winston 2012 Luck 2011 Newton 2010 Bradford 2009 Stafford 2007 Russell 2005 Smith 2004 Manning 2003 Palmer 2002 Carr 2001 Vick since the year 2000 only two guys take number 1 overall have won a Super Bowl and only Eli Manning did it with the team that drafted him. several of those guys lost in the Super Bowl and several busted out completely. some had good careers but not great ones. the point is that almost all the teams to win the Super Bowl the last 25 years have done so without taking a QB number 1 overall. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 59 minutes ago, Pastor Dillon said: since the year 2000 only two guys take number 1 overall have won a Super Bowl and only Eli Manning did it with the team that drafted him. Three guys (Manning brothers, Stafford) and Peyton won one with the Colts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 1 hour ago, Pastor Dillon said: the point is that almost all the teams to win the Super Bowl the last 25 years have done so without taking a QB number 1 overall. A few things: - How many does Peyton Manning win without Tom Brady in his way? Not saying you count those, but a statistical anomaly such as Brady sort of ruins the analysis. - Is Jared Goff a SB winner if Tom Brady isn't on the Pats? Same issue here, he ran into a statistical anomaly. - Only two QB are undefeated in the playoffs/SB against that statistical anomaly. One is a former #1 pick on this list, the other is a career backup who has one game against him (Nick Foles). - Stafford beat Joe Burrow for his, so that's a SB where you were going to get a guy off the list one way or another. - Peyton beat Cam Newton, so the list goes from 3 to 4 if the Panthers OL showed up. I don't disagree on some of what you're ultimately saying, just bringing up some interesting data within the data. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pastor Dillon Posted January 14, 2023 Author Share Posted January 14, 2023 44 minutes ago, ET80 said: Three guys (Manning brothers, Stafford) and Peyton won one with the Colts. Peyton was drafted before the year 2000 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 10 minutes ago, Pastor Dillon said: Peyton was drafted before the year 2000 Ahhh, you're right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pastor Dillon Posted January 14, 2023 Author Share Posted January 14, 2023 7 minutes ago, ET80 said: Ahhh, you're right. Prior to Peyton Manning, it’s actually extremely rare for a QB to go 1st overall. it’s like Peyton Manning changed the course of draft history. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pastor Dillon Posted January 15, 2023 Author Share Posted January 15, 2023 Trevor Lawrence has completely melted down in these two big games. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAtexansFAN_99 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Love to see it. Also what I'm worried about surrounding a qb with bad/ mediocre players. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jch1911 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 2 hours ago, Pastor Dillon said: Trevor Lawrence has completely melted down in these two big games. In the first half, absolutely.... But 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 10 hours ago, Pastor Dillon said: Trevor Lawrence has completely melted down in these two big games. This didn't age well. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pastor Dillon Posted January 15, 2023 Author Share Posted January 15, 2023 (edited) 45 minutes ago, ET80 said: This didn't age well. Didn’t age well at all. To be fair though he had thrown 4 INTs and had 27 yards passing or something crazy when I posted that. Edited January 15, 2023 by Pastor Dillon 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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