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Hypothetical Offseason Trades


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4 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

I could easily see a scenario where Poles gave an extensive list of what/who we would want in a deal for #1 if they want it right now. And maybe that’s where some of this is coming from. Then these click bait guys get half a comment from someone, then pass it off as “information” but nothing is really being offered at this point.

Especially with Stroud still up in the air

You summed it up better than I could. I'm sure the FO has an idea of what players they may want from some of the QB needy teams, but I doubt those teams know who those guys are to this point.

Edited by beardown3231
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3 hours ago, beardown3231 said:

That's not the point. They know the Bears aren't taking a QB. They also know the Bears aren't keeping the pick. They also know the team picking 2 slots behind them needs a QB and consequently play in the same division. That alone should make Houston a bit desperate yet alone the other stuff.

Still, yes you're correct. They're not giving up 2 and 12 to move up 1 spot.

The problem is there's no guarantee that the Bears are going to move down.  Other than Indianapolis, I'm not sure I see a team inside the top 4 that has motivation to move up.  And if the Bears move outside the top 4, they run the risk of neither of the blue chip defensive players (Will Anderson and Jalen Carter) being available.  Is a marginally better package worth missing out on either one of those two players?  Because I'm not sure I'm willing to give up Will Anderson for the right to take Myles Murphy or Tyree Wilson.  We haven't seen the #1 pick moved since 2016, and the last time we saw a team move up for a non-QB was in 1997 (Orlando Pace).  The market for the #1 pick is almost exclusively QB-needy teams.  Inside the top 10, you've got Houston (#2), Indianapolis (#4), Las Vegas (#7), and Carolina (#9) as definitively in the market for a QB.  Seattle (#5), Detroit (#6), and Atlanta (#8) are possible, but not likely.  Arizona (#3) and New Orleans (#10) are not in the market for a QB, so you can eliminate them.

How far would you be willing to move down?  And how much better would the package have to be to bypass one of (if not both) of the blue chip prospects.  If you move down to #4, you're effectively guaranteed one of of Will Anderson or Jalen Carter (whichever Arizona doesn't pick).  But by so doing, you've effectively eliminated the leverage you have created if you're only willing to move down to #4.  The Sam Darnold trade seems about right IMO.

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3 hours ago, Madmike90 said:

I'm not even sure only getting #2 & #12 would be the most efficient trade for us anyway...if anything I would rather get down a little more and pick up more picks in this draft, next years draft & potentially a player or two...

One thing I will say is as much as the TVC is a good guide it goes out the window in a situation like this for teams like the Texans & Colts if they have real conviction on one of these QBs...either you move heaven and earth and go get him...or you spend the next 10-15 year potentially having them dominate your own division and your fans consistently questioning why you didn't do more to get them...having two team desperate for a QB in the same division is a massive advantage for us.  

If the Texans offered #2 and #12 and nothing else, then Ryan Poles should be tripping over himself to make that trade.  You do that in a heartbeat.

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Just now, CWood21 said:

If the Texans offered #2 and #12 and nothing else, then Ryan Poles should be tripping over himself to make that trade.  You do that in a heartbeat.

According to the TVC only...

Also on your above post you say that Indy are the only team with motivation to trade up...that simply isn't true considering Houston will not want Indy to have their hand picked QB...especially if that is the same guy as they have as their #1 ranked guy...both those teams find themselves in the difficult position of not only wanting to put a package together to move up but putting together a package to stop each other from being able to trade up...it's why both those trades make the most sense right now...sure teams outside the top 4 could come into this after the combine and free agency but as of right now both these teams have many reason to want to move up.

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54 minutes ago, Madmike90 said:

According to the TVC only...

Also on your above post you say that Indy are the only team with motivation to trade up...that simply isn't true considering Houston will not want Indy to have their hand picked QB...especially if that is the same guy as they have as their #1 ranked guy...both those teams find themselves in the difficult position of not only wanting to put a package together to move up but putting together a package to stop each other from being able to trade up...it's why both those trades make the most sense right now...sure teams outside the top 4 could come into this after the combine and free agency but as of right now both these teams have many reason to want to move up.

I mean, would you prefer #2 and #12 or #4, #35, and a '24 FRP?  I'd venture a guess that the Bears could get a similar package if they moved down from #12 to the early parts of the second round.

And Houston only has motivation IF they view one (and only one QB) as their franchise QB.  Houston isn't going to trade up simply to block Indianapolis from selecting their QBOTF.  Houston's only motivation is if they have only one QB graded out as a franchise QB.  And then they have to weigh the costs of moving up from #2 to #1.  I'm not sure there's any scenario in which Houston feels pressured to give up #12 unless they're leaving the package just as 2/12 for 1, which still seems like a heavy overpay for Houston.  Hypothetically speaking, if Houston is offering 2/33 and Indianapolis is offering 4/35, what does Indianapolis need to add in order to beat Houston's offer?  According to the TVC, the Colts are short roughly a mid FRP worth of value.  I think they'd need to include their '24 FRP in order to close the gap at which point that's probably the offer the Bears would take.  But again, that needs Houston motivated to move up to offer that.  If Indianapolis doesn't feel pressure from Houston, they're probably not making that offer.  Optimistically, I think you'd like to hope that package is, but I think you're more likely to get either the '24 FRP or an early SRP.  I'm not sure you get both from either of those teams.

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1 minute ago, CWood21 said:

I mean, would you prefer #2 and #12 or #4, #35, and a '24 FRP?  I'd venture a guess that the Bears could get a similar package if they moved down from #12 to the early parts of the second round.

And Houston only has motivation IF they view one (and only one QB) as their franchise QB.  Houston isn't going to trade up simply to block Indianapolis from selecting their QBOTF.  Houston's only motivation is if they have only one QB graded out as a franchise QB.  And then they have to weigh the costs of moving up from #2 to #1.  I'm not sure there's any scenario in which Houston feels pressured to give up #12 unless they're leaving the package just as 2/12 for 1, which still seems like a heavy overpay for Houston.  Hypothetically speaking, if Houston is offering 2/33 and Indianapolis is offering 4/35, what does Indianapolis need to add in order to beat Houston's offer?  According to the TVC, the Colts are short roughly a mid FRP worth of value.  I think they'd need to include their '24 FRP in order to close the gap at which point that's probably the offer the Bears would take.  But again, that needs Houston motivated to move up to offer that.  If Indianapolis doesn't feel pressure from Houston, they're probably not making that offer.  Optimistically, I think you'd like to hope that package is, but I think you're more likely to get either the '24 FRP or an early SRP.  I'm not sure you get both from either of those teams.

I would prefer picking up the 2024 1st along with the early 2nd over just the 12th pick this year since I suspect Indy still won't be good next year.

I agree that Houston would only move up if they suspected their guy was also Indy's guy...however it is naive to think it won't play any part in their decision to be aggressive if it is...now of course neither of us know who the Colts or Texans but I still very much so believe both these franchises will have the fear factor of handing the other a franchise guy...

Again I agree with you Houston won't give up #12 and as I said I don't think that would be the conversation...I think it is more likely to be a 2nd & maybe a future pick which I wouldn't be against...

I think you need to throw the TVC out the window when it comes to teams moving up for QBs...look at what the 9ers gave up for Trey Lance (who I believe Young is a better prospect than)...(future picks valued at #16 in the round)

Pick #12 (1200)

1st in 2022 (1000)

3rd in 2022 (195)

1st in 2023 (1000)

Total Points (3395)

For 

Pick #3 (2200 points)

The price of #1 for any team moving up is not going to add up to equal value on that chart.

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51 minutes ago, Madmike90 said:

I would prefer picking up the 2024 1st along with the early 2nd over just the 12th pick this year since I suspect Indy still won't be good next year.

That's also assuming that Indianapolis is wiling to do so, which seems unlikely.  Go back and look at all the trades since 2000 where teams traded into the top 5 pick(s) to select a QB.

2021: Miami -> San Francisco (Trey Lance): #12, '22 FRP & 3rd, and '23 FRP for #3
2018: Indianapolis -> NY Jets (Sam Darnold): #6, #37, #49, and '19 SRP for #3
2017: San Francisco -> Chicago (Mitch Trubisky): #3, 3rd, 4th, and '18 3rd for #2
2016: Tennessee -> LA Rams (Jared Goff): #15, #43, #45, 3rd, and '17 FRP and 3rd for #1, 4th, and 6th
2016: Cleveland -> Philadelphia (Carson Wentz): #8, 3rd, 4th, '17 FRP, and '18 SRP for #2 and conditional 5th
2012: St. Louis -> Washignton (RG3): #6, #39, '13 FRP, and '14 FRP
2004: San Diego -> NY Giants (Eli Manning): #4, 3rd, '05 FRP, and '05 5th
2001: San Diego -> Atlanta (Michael Vick): #5, 3rd, '02 SRP, and Tim Dwight for #1

Of all those trades, only two trades involved more than 2 FRPs being included.  Neither Bryce Young nor CJ Stroud have the same kind of helium that RG3 had coming out of Baylor, and the 49ers were picking 12th, which we have to assume at this point is probably a dealbreaker for Chicago.  By the same logic of the Lance trade, you can probably cross the Rams trade off as a comparison.  So you're left with the Sam Darnold, Carson Wentz, and Eli Manning trades as trade comparisons.  None of which saw the team trading down acquire an early SRP PLUS a future FRP the next year.

1 hour ago, Madmike90 said:

Again I agree with you Houston won't give up #12 and as I said I don't think that would be the conversation...I think it is more likely to be a 2nd & maybe a future pick which I wouldn't be against...

Their best offer is probably something like #2, #33 plus a '24 SRP.  And that's probably a stretch unless they both have a single guy as their clear QB1 and they believe that Indianapolis is going to take him.

1 hour ago, Madmike90 said:

I think you need to throw the TVC out the window when it comes to teams moving up for QBs...look at what the 9ers gave up for Trey Lance (who I believe Young is a better prospect than)...(future picks valued at #16 in the round)

Pick #12 (1200)

1st in 2022 (1000)

3rd in 2022 (195)

1st in 2023 (1000)

Total Points (3395)

For 

Pick #3 (2200 points)

The price of #1 for any team moving up is not going to add up to equal value on that chart.

First off, your devaluation of future picks is WILDLY off.  There's not a SINGLE GM in the NFL that'd be wiling to part with a top 16 pick for a FRP they get 2 years from then.  Not a single GM.  You have to devalue those picks.  Personally, I devalue future picks as a round later, but I've seen a different spectrum.  Let's assume that my assumption is correct, that'd have the trade values as:

#12 (1200)
'22 FRP (430)
'22 3rd (60)
'23 FRP (195)
TOTAL: 1885

FOR

#3 (2200)

The reality is the value probably falls somewhere between the two.  But let me ask you this, do you think a SRP a year from now plus a FRP two years from now is worth a very early SRP?  Because again, I don't see any GM biting on that kind of deal.  And as I mentioned before, I don't think the Bears are going to be willing to move down that far.  If they stay inside the top 4, they're pretty much guaranteed either Jalen Carter or Will Anderson.

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Just now, CWood21 said:

That's also assuming that Indianapolis is wiling to do so, which seems unlikely.  Go back and look at all the trades since 2000 where teams traded into the top 5 pick(s) to select a QB.

2021: Miami -> San Francisco (Trey Lance): #12, '22 FRP & 3rd, and '23 FRP for #3
2018: Indianapolis -> NY Jets (Sam Darnold): #6, #37, #49, and '19 SRP for #3
2017: San Francisco -> Chicago (Mitch Trubisky): #3, 3rd, 4th, and '18 3rd for #2
2016: Tennessee -> LA Rams (Jared Goff): #15, #43, #45, 3rd, and '17 FRP and 3rd for #1, 4th, and 6th
2016: Cleveland -> Philadelphia (Carson Wentz): #8, 3rd, 4th, '17 FRP, and '18 SRP for #2 and conditional 5th
2012: St. Louis -> Washignton (RG3): #6, #39, '13 FRP, and '14 FRP
2004: San Diego -> NY Giants (Eli Manning): #4, 3rd, '05 FRP, and '05 5th
2001: San Diego -> Atlanta (Michael Vick): #5, 3rd, '02 SRP, and Tim Dwight for #1

Of all those trades, only two trades involved more than 2 FRPs being included.  Neither Bryce Young nor CJ Stroud have the same kind of helium that RG3 had coming out of Baylor, and the 49ers were picking 12th, which we have to assume at this point is probably a dealbreaker for Chicago.  By the same logic of the Lance trade, you can probably cross the Rams trade off as a comparison.  So you're left with the Sam Darnold, Carson Wentz, and Eli Manning trades as trade comparisons.  None of which saw the team trading down acquire an early SRP PLUS a future FRP the next year.

Their best offer is probably something like #2, #33 plus a '24 SRP.  And that's probably a stretch unless they both have a single guy as their clear QB1 and they believe that Indianapolis is going to take him.

First off, your devaluation of future picks is WILDLY off.  There's not a SINGLE GM in the NFL that'd be wiling to part with a top 16 pick for a FRP they get 2 years from then.  Not a single GM.  You have to devalue those picks.  Personally, I devalue future picks as a round later, but I've seen a different spectrum.  Let's assume that my assumption is correct, that'd have the trade values as:

#12 (1200)
'22 FRP (430)
'22 3rd (60)
'23 FRP (195)
TOTAL: 1885

FOR

#3 (2200)

The reality is the value probably falls somewhere between the two.  But let me ask you this, do you think a SRP a year from now plus a FRP two years from now is worth a very early SRP?  Because again, I don't see any GM biting on that kind of deal.  And as I mentioned before, I don't think the Bears are going to be willing to move down that far.  If they stay inside the top 4, they're pretty much guaranteed either Jalen Carter or Will Anderson.

Based on what? Jim Irsay & Chris Ballard saying they will do whatever it takes to find their guy? You are purely speculating that they aren't willing to do it.

Again...in your opinion neither do.

You may devalue them a full round...not many others do...thinking that 3 1st round pick & a 3rd only equate to the same as the 4th overall pick in one draft is just not something I can get on board with.

If you want to think that is all we can get then cool...but I am very confident we come out of the trade with significantly more...I guess we will find out soon enough.

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3 minutes ago, Madmike90 said:

Based on what? Jim Irsay & Chris Ballard saying they will do whatever it takes to find their guy? You are purely speculating that they aren't willing to do it.

Again...in your opinion neither do.

You may devalue them a full round...not many others do...thinking that 3 1st round pick & a 3rd only equate to the same as the 4th overall pick in one draft is just not something I can get on board with.

If you want to think that is all we can get then cool...but I am very confident we come out of the trade with significantly more...I guess we will find out soon enough.

What incentive does Indianapolis have to bid against themselves?  I mean, based on your logic the Colts should trade all of their picks for the next 5 years for that #1 pick.  Hyperbole aside, you can logically assume that teams aren't going to hamstring themselves to get their QB.  I mean, that list of teams trading up for their QB has more busts than hits.  You've probably only got two where you could argue that the teams trading for their QB was worth what they gave up, and that was ironically the two packages that gave up the least.

The package you're proposing would be unheard of.  That's a package that pretty much kills any chance of your team being successful in the near future.

LIS, there's room for discussion about how much picks are devalued.  But you've put a 150% premium on that trade because it fits the argument.  But even then, the 49ers didn't give up an early SRP as part of the deal, which is where this original discussion came from.  The 49ers likely put a premium because they chose to involve future picks as opposed to present picks.  Instead of their SRP, they probably had to include that 3rd FRP.

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1 minute ago, CWood21 said:

What incentive does Indianapolis have to bid against themselves?  I mean, based on your logic the Colts should trade all of their picks for the next 5 years for that #1 pick.  Hyperbole aside, you can logically assume that teams aren't going to hamstring themselves to get their QB.  I mean, that list of teams trading up for their QB has more busts than hits.  You've probably only got two where you could argue that the teams trading for their QB was worth what they gave up, and that was ironically the two packages that gave up the least.

The package you're proposing would be unheard of.  That's a package that pretty much kills any chance of your team being successful in the near future.

LIS, there's room for discussion about how much picks are devalued.  But you've put a 150% premium on that trade because it fits the argument.  But even then, the 49ers didn't give up an early SRP as part of the deal, which is where this original discussion came from.  The 49ers likely put a premium because they chose to involve future picks as opposed to present picks.  Instead of their SRP, they probably had to include that 3rd FRP.

I can't keep going round in this circle man...you are making the assumption that no other team in the NFL is going to want to move up to take a QB when year after year we see that is simply not the case...they would not be bidding against themselves...they would be ensuring that the guy they want doesn't end up in the same division as them for the next 10 years...regardless of hit rate teams will continue to trade up to get their guy...your own list proves that...yes he might bust but teams will take that risk on the chance that they will hit on a franchise QB because without one you are never truly competitive and both Indy & Houston are seemingly well aware of that fact...as I said just look at the comments of Irsay & Ballard...

Like I said if you honestly believe we will get buttons for that pick then okay...but I will look at the history of the trades for that pick and feel really confident your valuation is off by quite a bit.

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On 1/13/2023 at 2:46 PM, beardown3231 said:

I really don't care who Pace and Emery drafted

k, so we're just ignoring the fact that my point was that the 4th/5th/6th round of the draft is a giant crapshoot and trading one of those picks should not prevent us from getting a star level player by pointing out who drafted them?

also gonna ignore that your "i would trade our 3rd round pick" comment is a difference of only 7 picks from what i said?

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