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Is Nick Chubb on a HOF pace?


Kiwibrown

Nick Chubb HOF?  

38 members have voted

  1. 1. Chubb



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On 1/15/2023 at 9:19 AM, 3rivers said:

The part about Chubb is he will get the YPC while not being the top speed home run threat .

I don't think people realize just how much of a HR threat Nick Chubb is and has been. 92 yard TD, 88 yard TD, multiple of 70+ TD runs...he may not be CJ2K in terms of speed but he's a viable HR threat.

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2 hours ago, MWil23 said:

He's infinitely better than Corey Dillon ever was...Chubb's worst ever year is better than Dillon's best in terms of YPC alone.

Not saying you're wrong but this is a bit of a flawed comparison. The league average ypc was a half yard lower when Dillon's career started, Dillon played on worse teams than Chubb ever has, and he carried a considerably higher workload. He has a few years where compared to league average they are identical in ypc but obviously Chubb has multiple seasons at a much higher peak and hasn't had down years like Dillon.

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7 minutes ago, Bullet Club said:

Not saying you're wrong but this is a bit of a flawed comparison.

I agree, but I didn't make the comp. Mine was a response.

7 minutes ago, Bullet Club said:

The league average ypc was a half yard lower when Dillon's career started,

Very fair

7 minutes ago, Bullet Club said:

Dillon played on worse teams than Chubb ever has,

I mean, he was on the 2004 Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots

7 minutes ago, Bullet Club said:

and he carried a considerably higher workload.

Not really, the per games are really close:

Rushing Receiving
Rk Player From To Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD
1 Nick Chubb 2018 2022 16.1 84.5 0.6 1.6 13.2 0.1
2 Corey Dillon 1997 2006 17.5 74.9 0.5 1.6 12.8 0.0
7 minutes ago, Bullet Club said:

He has a few years where compared to league average they are identical in ypc but obviously Chubb has multiple seasons at a much higher peak and hasn't had down years like Dillon.

 

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He's probably on pace, but there isn't much room for error, imo.  Hopefully his lesser workload extends his career.  If he's able to compile some numbers into his 30's, he probably gets in. If he hits a wall at 30 or prior, he probably doesn't.   As good as he has been, his peak hasn't generated the hardware for him to get in without accumulating some high career totals.  YPC isn't going to get you in without the accolades, particularly when you factor in that number doesn't include aging through diminishing explosiveness yet.    

Edited by OkeyDoke21
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2 hours ago, MWil23 said:

I agree, but I didn't make the comp. Mine was a response.

Very fair

I mean, he was on the 2004 Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots

Not really, the per games are really close:

Rushing Receiving
Rk Player From To Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD
1 Nick Chubb 2018 2022 16.1 84.5 0.6 1.6 13.2 0.1
2 Corey Dillon 1997 2006 17.5 74.9 0.5 1.6 12.8 0.0

 

In Dillon's Bengals career (7 seasons), Cincy won 4 or less games 4 times, and the other three seasons won 6, 7 and 8. Chubb has only been on one team that's won less than seven games. Dillon was 30 when he joined New England, and suddenly had the best year of his career on his first winning team ever.

You're also comparing Dillon's post-prime to Chubb's prime for workload. Dillon has four years with more carries than Chubb ever had, if you took their combined careers he has seven of the top ten most total touches in a season (Chubb got an extra game for one of those), and five of the top six touches per game between the two. Plus, he was a little more durable at least through his prime.

It's a weird one to look at. I know you didn't make the comparison and we both agree Chubb is clearly better. Think the arguments used weren't all that fair to Dillon is all.

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Eye test and statistically everyone seems to agree he is on pace, yet some still say no which is weird.

It really doesn't matter until he has played long enough to realistically qualify. As a pure runner he is probably top three that I have seen. He has a combination of balance, vision, power and speed that very very few have ever had. He is 40 catches for 600 yards per season away from being the best I have ever seen, but he hasn't done that so overall that is a hit even though it is no fault of his own.

Still, Pretty sure if he stays healthy everyone saying he will get in will be correct.

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13 hours ago, Bullet Club said:

Not saying you're wrong but this is a bit of a flawed comparison. The league average ypc was a half yard lower when Dillon's career started, Dillon played on worse teams than Chubb ever has, and he carried a considerably higher workload. He has a few years where compared to league average they are identical in ypc but obviously Chubb has multiple seasons at a much higher peak and hasn't had down years like Dillon.

That is true. He also had to play the Steelers, Jaguars, Titans, and Ravens twice a year who would rotate being very stout on defense at the time. 

I think Willie Anderson was Dillon's only notable lineman, but I'm not sure. 

Edited by TecmoSuperJoe
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I guess the one thing I'll fight anyone on ever, with all due respect to @Danger, is that Nick Chubb is absolutely one of the best if not the best player at his position in the NFL.

He's finished 3rd or better in the rushing title three times:

2022: 3rd (Jacobs, Henry, Chubb)

2021: 2nd (Taylor, Chubb)

2019: 2nd (Henry, Chubb)

...and with respect to those other guys, he has to play Cincinnati, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh TWICE EACH as opposed to the cakewalk schedule that Henry and Jonathan Taylor get in their pretty subpar division in that regard.

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3 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

I guess the one thing I'll fight anyone on ever, with all due respect to @Danger, is that Nick Chubb is absolutely one of the best if not the best player at his position in the NFL.

He's finished 3rd or better in the rushing title three times:

2022: 3rd (Jacobs, Henry, Chubb)

2021: 2nd (Taylor, Chubb)

2019: 2nd (Henry, Chubb)

...and with respect to those other guys, he has to play Cincinnati, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh TWICE EACH as opposed to the cakewalk schedule that Henry and Jonathan Taylor get in their pretty subpar division in that regard.

I completely respect others' opinions on this even if they disagree with me. This isn't like Frank Gore where I think he's absolutely unworthy, I can see the point, but I just don't get the "Elite" feel with Chubb personally that embodies a HoF player to me. It's subjective, yes.

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1 minute ago, Danger said:

I completely respect others' opinions on this even if they disagree with me. This isn't like Frank Gore where I think he's absolutely unworthy, I can see the point, but I just don't get the "Elite" feel with Chubb personally that embodies a HoF player to me. It's subjective, yes.

You're entitled to that opinion. Chubb had one of the worst OL in football in 2019 and put up some big time game stats against one of the toughest schedule in the NFL, and the last 2 years, Derrick Henry is at 4.3 and 4.4 YPC.

Ironically, Chubb averages a much higher YPC and more YPG than Henry while playing in a much tougher division.

Passing Rushing Receiving
Rk Player From To Cmp Att Yds TD Int Sk Yds Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD
1 Nick Chubb 2018 2022 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.1 84.5 0.6 1.6 13.2 0.1
2 Derrick Henry 2016 2022 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.2 81.7 0.8 1.2 12.2 0.0
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Chubb’s injury at Georgia robbed us of what might’ve been the greatest college RB of our generation.  His sophomore year pre-injury he was averaging over 8 YPC (7.1 his Fr year).  His last two years were still great but it’s hard not to think what would’ve been. 

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On 1/22/2023 at 1:58 PM, DirtyDez said:

Chubb’s injury at Georgia robbed us of what might’ve been the greatest college RB of our generation.  His sophomore year pre-injury he was averaging over 8 YPC (7.1 his Fr year).  His last two years were still great but it’s hard not to think what would’ve been. 

Gurley was better. 

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