2022 Divisional Round: Jaguars vs Chiefs

[Forge]

 

[onejayhawk]

I was going to post that the weather is looking nasty. 40s and some sun was predicted. What we have is 30s and dropping with cold rain or rain mixed with sleet, even snow as it gets colder.

This could be a game for the RB and short passing. 

[Scoundrel]

I think it’s stupid that we have to wait so long into the day for a game to start

[sammymvpknight]

1 hour ago, Jakuvious said:

Matt Stafford made 3 post season appearances before switching teams. Rivers had early success then had one playoff berth in almost a decade. Obviously Herbert has struggled so far. Derek Carr. Lawrence is currently closer to any if these guys than he is to Mahomes.

Never making it back is probably a stretch, given that QBs tend to play a long time. But Lawrence is not yet the level of QB whose existence basically guarantees a playoff berth. And the Jags don't have that level of roster yet either. If anyone in the AFC South had their **** together, they may not even have made it this year, given their record.

I like Lawrence, but I do think people are applying their pre draft beliefs in him to him in the NFL now that he has had a bit of success. It's okay to say he improved this year but still needs to improve further. It's okay to say rebounding from 4 picks is something a lesser QB would not have done, while also admitting that throwing 4 picks is something a better QB would not have done. Like, you won't find a game like that on the resume of Rodgers or Allen or Mahomes....because they've never thrown 4 picks in one game.

All of those guys made the playoffs again. So quit acting like it’ll never happen again. Certainly…anything is possible, but let’s not be dramatic here and neglect all reasonable probabilities here. 

If we were talking about the Super Bowl that’d be one thing…we’re talking about the playoffs. 

BTW…Derek Carr. Come on buddy

Edited January 21, 2023 by sammymvpknight

[Apparition]

I think the Jags have a legitimate shot if the Chiefs come out of the gate cold, like they've done so often this year - especially against AFC South teams. If KC bumbles around for the first half and plays with their food, this game could very well come down to the wire.

[sammymvpknight]

21 minutes ago, Forge said:

 

I’d have to imagine that poor weather conditions has to favor the underdog right? The Chiefs will remain huge favorites, but I’ve seen weather neutralize both sides before. 

Edited January 21, 2023 by sammymvpknight

[Scoundrel]

1 minute ago, sammymvpknight said:

I’d have to imagine that poor weather conditions has to favor the underdog right? The Chiefs will remain huge favorites, but I’ve seen weather neutralize both sides before. 

Jags are used to Florida weather so...

[sammymvpknight]

2 minutes ago, Scoundrel said:

Jags are used to Florida weather so...

Do the Chiefs practice in sleet? 40’s is cold, but nothing that clothing doesn’t overcome. I think sleet has an effect on offenses…probably both offenses. It’s just a factor that is difficult to account for

[11sanchez11]

1 minute ago, sammymvpknight said:

Do the Chiefs practice in sleet? 40’s is cold, but nothing that clothing doesn’t overcome. I think sleet has an effect on offenses…probably both offenses. It’s just a factor that is difficult to account for

only thing that benefits the defense is hard wind. offensive players know where they are going so they aren't reacting 

[sammymvpknight]

3 minutes ago, 11sanchez11 said:

only thing that benefits the defense is hard wind. offensive players know where they are going so they aren't reacting 

I’ve seen sleet cause offensive struggles as well. 

[Broncofan]

Besides Hardman, the notable inactives look like Reiter & Kinnard are out for KC.   Now they're just the backups, but it does mean if there's an injury on the IOL in-game, they're definitely going to feel it.    That's potentially a big swing, because it's pretty clear if you blitz Mahomes, he usually burns you.  If you can get pressure with 4, it makes the job a lot easier.

Those in the Bets thread know I'm backing Juju Smith-Schuster for KC, and Lawrence rushing and Etienne receiving props - those are key areas where success can be had.    Ultimately, how Lawrence handles the KC pass D / pass rush and how well the pass rush can put heat on Mahomes without sending the house, tells the tale.  KC deserves to be a wide favorite, but 9 pts is a lot.  In a TO neutral game, I'd go something like 34-27 KC.   Looking forward to this.

[MagicMT]

18 minutes ago, sammymvpknight said:

BTW…Derek Carr. Come on buddy

It's funny you would say that because another poster said that people (Jags fans generally) are overrating Lawrence and I certainly feel this is true. Lawrence had a good year, but to act like his year wasn't similar to the one Carr had in his 3rd year in 2016 is not warranted. They had a very similar year. 
Now I believe Lawrence is already a better QB than Carr and that he will still improve in the upcoming years, but to act like he doesn't deserve to be mentioned along Derek Carr is projecting his growth and not indicative of his play this year.  

[Broncofan]

26 minutes ago, Scoundrel said:

I think it’s stupid that we have to wait so long into the day for a game to start

What sucks is if this game goes long, they'll delay the next game, we could be watching until midnight.  For having only 2 games, that's borderline criminal (and yes, I'm getting old now - but some of us have to work on the weekends too, so it's a 7 AM ET start for me tomorrow).

For the few EU fans, this must be outrageous lol.

Edited January 21, 2023 by Broncofan

[Forge]

17 minutes ago, sammymvpknight said:

I’d have to imagine that poor weather conditions has to favor the underdog right? The Chiefs will remain huge favorites, but I’ve seen weather neutralize both sides before. 

Generally speaking I think bad weather tends to favor the worse team. Skill becomes somewhat muddied

[kingseanjohn]

4 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Besides Hardman, the notable inactives look like Reiter & Kinnard are out for KC.   Now they're just the backups, but it does mean if there's an injury on the IOL in-game, they're definitely going to feel it.    That's potentially a big swing, because it's pretty clear if you blitz Mahomes, he usually burns you.  If you can get pressure with 4, it makes the job a lot easier.

Those in the Bets thread know I'm backing Juju Smith-Schuster for KC, and Lawrence rushing and Etienne receiving props - those are key areas where success can be had.    Ultimately, how Lawrence handles the KC pass D / pass rush and how well the pass rush can put heat on Mahomes without sending the house, tells the tale.  KC deserves to be a wide favorite, but 9 pts is a lot.  In a TO neutral game, I'd go something like 34-27 KC.   Looking forward to this.

Reiter is our practice squad OL. He's 4th on the depth chart at best. Kinnard has been inactive all but one game iirc. Nothing to see here *knock on wood*.