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2022 Divisional Round: Jaguars vs Chiefs


kingseanjohn

Who wins?  

63 members have voted

  1. 1. Who wins?



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2 hours ago, ET80 said:

They had him (6’ 7” 335) and Marcus Stroud (6’ 6” 310) lined up on that inside.

THAT’S how you run a 4-3 base. Just pile up close to 700 lbs of bad intentions on the inside of the DL and let Mike Peterson roam free as a MLB.

I really liked those Jaguars defenses. Those 3, plus Donovin Darius, Rasheen Mathis, Daryl Smith. Never quite enough to dethrone the Colts though.

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Ok, gonna get ripped for this but that's alright.  The Lawrence love is out of control.  He's a nice QB and I get why jags fans would be excited, but let's not act like he's been an all pro QB this year. He's been good/great the second half of this year, but that's not unique compared to the QBs left.  Has he been better than Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, or Burrow this year? Nope. He's in that middle ground with Dak, Cousins (yes Cousins), Herbert, Tua, etc...  He's had a nice second half of the season, but in the games I've watched of his (more than half), I haven't thought to myself "wow! There's only a couple guys who could do what he just did!" Maybe he'll get to that point someday, but he's firmly in that middle ground of being good enough to get by, but not a game changer similar to Kirk Cousins. Full disclosure, I would take Cousins for next year over Lawrence (though not for the next 10 years). Cousins is severely underrated and Lawrence is severely overrated. As of right now, he has not lived up to the "generational prospect" label he was given, though maybe he shouldn't have gotten that label as it was really unrealistic. The only thing Lawrence really has going for him over a guy like Cousions is that he's younger. I would also take Mahommes, Allen, Burrow, Dak, Herbert pretty easily.  Hurts, Lamar, Tua? Maybe, but I'm not big on qbs who are more of a running threat than passing. Not a fan of Murray. Wouldn't take Watson period. Maybe Rodgers and Brady for 1 year only, but probably not. I'm not trying to throw shade (I think that's the right usage) at the Jags, it just feels like Lawrence is getting a lot of credit when he hasn't really earned it.

Edited by sparkyjoe1
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Jags have the second best points diff since week 14, averaging 29 a game, held 3 of the last 4 opponents to under 20, won 8 from last 10.

KC are the team that give up the highest passer rating of all remaining playoff teams.

 

So I’m taking Chiefs but Jags points (8.5). Chiefs by 6 or something close

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6 minutes ago, Hunter2_1 said:

Jags have the second best points diff since week 14, averaging 29 a game, held 3 of the last 4 opponents to under 20, won 8 from last 10.

KC are the team that give up the highest passer rating of all remaining playoff teams.

 

So I’m taking Chiefs but Jags points (8.5). Chiefs by 6 or something close

The other way to attack this - get the Jags O21.   With the O/U set at 52.5, and a line of +8.5, the implied score is 30.5 - 22.   I think most would agree that the Jags D & KC D don't seem like they'll shut down their opponent's O.  So you're getting a wider edge by taking the JAX total.   Because 21 is an important threshold, there's a lot of extra cushion beyond the 1-1.5 implied edge (like getting +10.5 over +9 is way more valuable than +9 vs. +7.5, or +12 vs. +10.5 for example).

Edited by Broncofan
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1 hour ago, sparkyjoe1 said:

Ok, gonna get ripped for this but that's alright.  The Lawrence love is out of control.  He's a nice QB and I get why jags fans would be excited, but let's not act like he's been an all pro QB this year. He's been good/great the second half of this year, but that's not unique compared to the QBs left.  Has he been better than Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, or Burrow this year? Nope. He's in that middle ground with Dak, Cousins (yes Cousins), Herbert, Tua, etc...  He's had a nice second half of the season, but in the games I've watched of his (more than half), I haven't thought to myself "wow! There's only a couple guys who could do what he just did!" Maybe he'll get to that point someday, but he's firmly in that middle ground of being good enough to get by, but not a game changer similar to Kirk Cousins. Full disclosure, I would take Cousins for next year over Lawrence (though not for the next 10 years). Cousins is severely underrated and Lawrence is severely overrated. As of right now, he has not lived up to the "generational prospect" label he was given, though maybe he shouldn't have gotten that label as it was really unrealistic. The only thing Lawrence really has going for him over a guy like Cousions is that he's younger. I would also take Mahommes, Allen, Burrow, Dak, Herbert pretty easily.  Hurts, Lamar, Tua? Maybe, but I'm not big on qbs who are more of a running threat than passing. Not a fan of Murray. Wouldn't take Watson period. Maybe Rodgers and Brady for 1 year only, but probably not. I'm not trying to throw shade (I think that's the right usage) at the Jags, it just feels like Lawrence is getting a lot of credit when he hasn't really earned it.

Pretty horrible take… he’s in his second year still developing and playing some great football. Comparing him to Kirk Cousins is laughable. Lawrence has more talent in his pinky than Cousins does in his body. Cousins lacks a lot of natural talent and will never have any chance to match the elite QB’s. Lawrence has the tools to he in that group sooner rather than later. 

Edited by BayRaider
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3 hours ago, sparkyjoe1 said:

Ok, gonna get ripped for this but that's alright.  The Lawrence love is out of control.  He's a nice QB and I get why jags fans would be excited, but let's not act like he's been an all pro QB this year. He's been good/great the second half of this year, but that's not unique compared to the QBs left.  Has he been better than Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, or Burrow this year? Nope. He's in that middle ground with Dak, Cousins (yes Cousins), Herbert, Tua, etc...  He's had a nice second half of the season, but in the games I've watched of his (more than half), I haven't thought to myself "wow! There's only a couple guys who could do what he just did!" Maybe he'll get to that point someday, but he's firmly in that middle ground of being good enough to get by, but not a game changer similar to Kirk Cousins. Full disclosure, I would take Cousins for next year over Lawrence (though not for the next 10 years). Cousins is severely underrated and Lawrence is severely overrated. As of right now, he has not lived up to the "generational prospect" label he was given, though maybe he shouldn't have gotten that label as it was really unrealistic. The only thing Lawrence really has going for him over a guy like Cousions is that he's younger. I would also take Mahommes, Allen, Burrow, Dak, Herbert pretty easily.  Hurts, Lamar, Tua? Maybe, but I'm not big on qbs who are more of a running threat than passing. Not a fan of Murray. Wouldn't take Watson period. Maybe Rodgers and Brady for 1 year only, but probably not. I'm not trying to throw shade (I think that's the right usage) at the Jags, it just feels like Lawrence is getting a lot of credit when he hasn't really earned it.

He’s been a top 6-10 QB this year, which you basically just said. While throwing to Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Evan Engram and Marvin Jones.

He doesn’t have the luxury of throwing to a guy like Jefferson or Diggs or having the best WR trio in the game like Burrow.

What he’s done with what he has, has been pretty impressive.

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4 hours ago, sparkyjoe1 said:

Ok, gonna get ripped for this but that's alright.  The Lawrence love is out of control.  He's a nice QB and I get why jags fans would be excited, but let's not act like he's been an all pro QB this year. He's been good/great the second half of this year, but that's not unique compared to the QBs left.  Has he been better than Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, or Burrow this year? Nope. He's in that middle ground with Dak, Cousins (yes Cousins), Herbert, Tua, etc...  He's had a nice second half of the season, but in the games I've watched of his (more than half), I haven't thought to myself "wow! There's only a couple guys who could do what he just did!" Maybe he'll get to that point someday, but he's firmly in that middle ground of being good enough to get by, but not a game changer similar to Kirk Cousins. Full disclosure, I would take Cousins for next year over Lawrence (though not for the next 10 years). Cousins is severely underrated and Lawrence is severely overrated. As of right now, he has not lived up to the "generational prospect" label he was given, though maybe he shouldn't have gotten that label as it was really unrealistic. The only thing Lawrence really has going for him over a guy like Cousions is that he's younger. I would also take Mahommes, Allen, Burrow, Dak, Herbert pretty easily.  Hurts, Lamar, Tua? Maybe, but I'm not big on qbs who are more of a running threat than passing. Not a fan of Murray. Wouldn't take Watson period. Maybe Rodgers and Brady for 1 year only, but probably not. I'm not trying to throw shade (I think that's the right usage) at the Jags, it just feels like Lawrence is getting a lot of credit when he hasn't really earned it.

Well…the Jags went from having the first overall pick to bring in the divisional round of the playoff, largely because of Lawrence. Even if he is only Dak/Cousins level right now, he is still among the most impressive QB prospects of all-time and is trending toward living up to that billing. I doubt people are saying he’s the best now…even Jags fans. But he’s scratching the surface. You could see him easily being upon that top group quickly. As a Jags fan, I think Mahomes is the only QB I trade for Lawrence right now. 

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21 minutes ago, CP3MVP said:

I hate the phrase “house money” in sports. You have no idea when you’re gonna be in this opportunity again lol. 

Ehhh Jags are gonna win that division like the next 7-8 out of 10 years. QB’s rule divisions. 

There is no pressure on the Jags at all. No one expects them to win, and it’s a year too early for their Super Bowl window. So Pederson and the Jags can take as many risks/gambles that they want. That is basically house money. They will play with no fear and no pressure. 

Edited by BayRaider
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50 minutes ago, KhanYouDigIt said:

He’s been a top 6-10 QB this year, which you basically just said. While throwing to Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Evan Engram and Marvin Jones.

He doesn’t have the luxury of throwing to a guy like Jefferson or Diggs or having the best WR trio in the game like Burrow.

What he’s done with what he has, has been pretty impressive.

It’s funny how people consider those guys good players now…when last year they were all replacement level talent (aside from Kirk who as an overrated slot WR). What’s the common denominator here? A substantial improvement at HC and Trevor Lawrence playing really well over the 2nd half. I would be really excited to see him with elite receiving talent

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5 minutes ago, sammymvpknight said:

It’s funny how people consider those guys good players now…when last year they were all replacement level talent (aside from Kirk who as an overrated slot WR). What’s the common denominator here? A substantial improvement at HC and Trevor Lawrence playing really well over the 2nd half. I would be really excited to see him with elite receiving talent

Engram only had two teams interested in him, Jags and some other team. Zay only had a couple teams interested in him this off-season. These are guys teams nobody really wanted and Trevor put up 30 TD’s with them. Like you said, Doug and Trevor deserve a ton of credit.

Adding Ridley will help but they still need to add to that receiving core this off-season.

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1 hour ago, BayRaider said:

Ehhh Jags are gonna win that division like the next 7-8 out of 10 years. QB’s rule divisions. 

There is no pressure on the Jags at all. No one expects them to win, and it’s a year too early for their Super Bowl window. So Pederson and the Jags can take as many risks/gambles that they want. That is basically house money. They will play with no fear and no pressure. 

Did you think the jags were going to win the division this year? 
 

I have no idea if they are gonna be a lock the next decade 

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It isn’t like Evan Engram is some scrub. He’s always had a lot of talent. Drops were an issue in NYG IIRC but it isn’t like his production this year is out of line with what he’s done throughout his career.  Hell, he has 3 seasons in NYG where he averaged more yards per game. 
 

If anything, outside of injury concerns, why weren’t more teams interested in him? 

Edited by iknowcool
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