Divisional Round: San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys

[adamq]

This is the one match-up where I am 1000% blinded by fandom. I don't care what the Cowboys did last week or which pass rushers they have.. 49ers>Cowboys. Always.

 

We need a quick passing game, Purdy is not gonna have time to lollygag around the backfield. Deebo and Kittle need to take over and dominate those puny Dallas LBs/DBs with YAC

Defense I'm not too worried. Mooney will handle Lamb, Dallas gas a cavalcade of TEs but Warner will shut down the middle of the field. Big dudes up front need to punish Zeke and Pollard with every carry. BOSA you are the DPOY, PROVE IT

[J-ALL-DAY]

1 minute ago, adamq said:

This is the one match-up where I am 1000% blinded by fandom. I don't care what the Cowboys did last week or which pass rushers they have.. 49ers>Cowboys. Always.

 

We need a quick passing game, Purdy is not gonna have time to lollygag around the backfield. Deebo and Kittle need to take over and dominate those puny Dallas LBs/DBs with YAC

Defense I'm not too worried. Mooney will handle Lamb, Dallas gas a cavalcade of TEs but Warner will shut down the middle of the field. Big dudes up front need to punish Zeke and Pollard with every carry. BOSA you are the DPOY, PROVE IT

It's not as simple as saying Mooney will handle Lamb. For one, Lamb will line up in the slot for much of the game and we run primarily zone and two, even on the outside, it is not guarantee that Mooney can take Lamb out of the game. Both will win their fair share of battles. Mooney got cooked vs DK on Saturday after doing a good job on him in the first two meetings. 

 

[adamq]

14 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

It's not as simple as saying Mooney will handle Lamb. For one, Lamb will line up in the slot for much of the game and we run primarily zone and two, even on the outside, it is not guarantee that Mooney can take Lamb out of the game. Both will win their fair share of battles. Mooney got cooked vs DK on Saturday after doing a good job on him in the first two meetings. 

 

Yeah he plays out of the slot about 45% of the time, but on the outside I think Mooney will contain him. Ward had some missteps against DK but has been lights out this season

 

Those big chunk plays are what we really need to avoid. Let Dallas try to nickel and dime you, our d will stop then on plenty of 3rd downs. A slow, methodical game plays right in to Shanny's hands. Eat TOP, run run run, get that YAC

Edited January 17, 2023 by adamq

[J-ALL-DAY]

9 minutes ago, adamq said:

Yeah he plays out of the slot about 45% of the time, but on the outside I think Mooney will contain him. Ward had some missteps against DK but has been lights out this season

I mean Mooney is good but DHop did whatever he wanted to do in the first half against him as well. Good WRs are going to get theirs against anyone. But that match up alone isn't going to determine the game. We have to contain the run game and get to Dak while rushing only four as that will be the key to the game on that side of the ball. Dallas did such a good job of picking up the Bucs blitzes and Dak ate that up. Offensively, the run game HAS to get going early and often and that will allow Purdy to get stuff going in the passing game. It's going to be very difficult to slow that pass rush down so it's very important the run game is more consistent than it was against Seattle. 

Fun match up, I'm getting nervous and excited already! Lol. 

[49ersfan]

7 hours ago, Herodreamer79 said:

Not saying much. NFC is not that good this year man. SF, Dallas and Philly is it.

Everyone else is "happy to be here" thanks to the regular stalwarts like the Rams, Packers and Saints all crashing like crypto and leaving a bunch of extra wins on the table that had to go somewhere. 

I mean, the Cowboys had a +125 point differential which was top 5 in the league. They even had to play their backup QB for a few games and it didn't tank their season. 

They are a good team and this will be a good game, but i think we win it more convincingly than last year. We're at home, more rested, added more firepower, and have better QB play than last playoffs.

I'm guessing it's a tight game at halftime, like 17-14 49ers. We pull away in the 2nd half as usual and win 38-24

[JIllg]

28 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

I mean Mooney is good but DHop did whatever he wanted to do in the first half against him as well. Good WRs are going to get theirs against anyone. But that match up alone isn't going to determine the game. We have to contain the run game and get to Dak while rushing only four as that will be the key to the game on that side of the ball. Dallas did such a good job of picking up the Bucs blitzes and Dak ate that up. Offensively, the run game HAS to get going early and often and that will allow Purdy to get stuff going in the passing game. It's going to be very difficult to slow that pass rush down so it's very important the run game is more consistent than it was against Seattle. 

Fun match up, I'm getting nervous and excited already! Lol. 

Yeah, there are ways that Dallas can really hurt us. Dak is very good when on time and not pressured. Gotta make him uncomfortable, especially with 4 (or with 5 and man behind it on third downs). Dak carves up zone. He's struggled a little bit more versus man because their only real man beating guy is Lamb and Lamb isn't a super separator. Sometimes those contested catches don't go down. Dak's kind of got the Cousins thing where he can really play in ideal conditions, but if you can knock those conditions down a notch, you can really mess him up.

On defense, Dallas can really hurt you when they are ahead and can jump routes and get after the passer. They're really good at getting on top of your first rushing option, but are vulnerable to misdirection. The secondary has made strides at stinking less in tackling guys in space. But they still aren't very good at it. And they'll be extra afraid of Deebo this week (for good reason). He'll be a useful decoy. Just can't let the pass rush wreck the game and limit the aggressive TFLs in the running game and you'll eat well because they really need you behind the sticks. When they aren't making big plays on defense, they're giving up some plays. 

Overall, they're a good team. Would have been the better team for half of the year. Can still win if they blow up the offensive line and get into Purdy's head and block up our pass rush. But this version of the 9ers has been on fire by the eye test and according to every metric. If Purdy doesn't turn into a pumpkin, the Cowboys are going to have to score 30 to win. I'm not sure that happens.

[NinerNation21]

All of this nostalgia and rivalry talk made me want to go look at our playoff history and here's our top "rivals" in the playoffs:

• 5-4 against the Packers (9 games) - Beat them once to go to the SB and beat them twice to go to the NFCCG. Packers did the same to us, too. 
• 4-4 against the Giants (8 games) - Beat them 3 times to go to the NFCCG, lost to them twice in the NFCCG. 
• 3-5 against the Cowboys (8 games) - Beat them twice to go to the SB, lost to them 4 times in the NFCCG.
• 5-1 against the Vikings (6 games) - All games in the Divisional round.
• 3-1 against the Redskins (4 games) - Beat them 3 times to go to the NFCCG, lost once to them in the NFCCG.

Everyone else are onesies and twosies. In terms of historical rivals, it has to be the Cowboys, but if you input recency bias, it's the Packers. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

4 minutes ago, JIllg said:

Yeah, there are ways that Dallas can really hurt us. Dak is very good when on time and not pressured. Gotta make him uncomfortable, especially with 4 (or with 5 and man behind it on third downs). Dak carves up zone. He's struggled a little bit more versus man because their only real man beating guy is Lamb and Lamb isn't a super separator. Sometimes those contested catches don't go down. Dak's kind of got the Cousins thing where he can really play in ideal conditions, but if you can knock those conditions down a notch, you can really mess him up.

On defense, Dallas can really hurt you when they are ahead and can jump routes and get after the passer. They're really good at getting on top of your first rushing option, but are vulnerable to misdirection. The secondary has made strides at stinking less in tackling guys in space. But they still aren't very good at it. And they'll be extra afraid of Deebo this week (for good reason). He'll be a useful decoy. Just can't let the pass rush wreck the game and limit the aggressive TFLs in the running game and you'll eat well because they really need you behind the sticks. When they aren't making big plays on defense, they're giving up some plays. 

Overall, they're a good team. Would have been the better team for half of the year. Can still win if they blow up the offensive line and get into Purdy's head and block up our pass rush. But this version of the 9ers has been on fire by the eye test and according to every metric. If Purdy doesn't turn into a pumpkin, the Cowboys are going to have to score 30 to win. I'm not sure that happens.

Dallas has been averaging 32.33 PPG since Dak returned from his injury. They CAN get to that mark, even against this defense if our pass rush does not get home. Our defense last season ended on a better note and it carried over in the playoffs. This season the defense was better by all metrics but is it playing at the same level as the 2021 defense did during this time last season? I'm not sure about that but it needs to get back to playing the way it did before the last few weeks. We let the Seahawks hang in the game and did not take advantage of all our scoring opportunities in the first half and that can't happen against Dallas. If you want to force Dak into mistakes, then we have to make them one dimensional and let the pass rush get after it. Warner/Greenlaw will have a chance to make some plays on the ball and possibly even come down with a INT, especially if the pass rush can get home. We have been allowing big passing plays for damn near a month now and it is getting really annoying. That needs to be corrected as we are still great at the underneath stuff. 

Purdy loves scrambling back 20 yards and spinning to the sidelines but all that will do is lead himself right into the arms of Parsons. I thought he did a poor job of stepping up in the pocket a few times last week and I hope he learned from that. If the OL is able to give Purdy some time, then our weapons will have a chance to make their fair share of plays in space and sort of expose the Cowboys DBs in the tackling department. Bland has been a great playmaker but his missed tackle percentage is pretty high and that's a guy someone like Deebo can take advantage of. 

These are two of the most complete teams in the league and there isn't much separation from both teams. It will come down to coaching and who can limit the big mistakes. 

[49ersfan]

My original picks sucked last week. Thought the Chargers, Vikings & Bucs would win - all lost. Even Bills & Bengals barely won by a combined 10 points

Nevertheless, I'll try again

Chiefs over Jaguars

Eagles over Giants

Bengals over Bills

49ers over Cowboys

 

[NFL Network]

8 minutes ago, 49ersfan said:

My original picks sucked last week. Thought the Chargers, Vikings & Bucs would win - all lost. Even Bills & Bengals barely won by a combined 10 points

Nevertheless, I'll try again

Chiefs over Jaguars

Eagles over Giants

Bengals over Bills

49ers over Cowboys

 

I hope I'm wrong but here are my picks:

Chiefs over Jags

Eagles over Giants

Bills over Bengals

Cowboys over Niners

Championship Round:

Bills over Chiefs

Cowboys over Eagles

SB:

Bills over Cowboys

Hopefully it's not Bills/Cowboys as those are the 2 teams I detest the most but I have a bad feeling about this years playoffs.

[Chrissooner49er]

44 minutes ago, 49ersfan said:

My original picks sucked last week. Thought the Chargers, Vikings & Bucs would win - all lost. Even Bills & Bengals barely won by a combined 10 points

Nevertheless, I'll try again

Chiefs over Jaguars

Eagles over Giants

Bengals over Bills

49ers over Cowboys

 

Jags pull a miracle vs Chiefs (please, please, please, please, please, PUH-LEEZE!) 🙏

Giants over Eagles

Bills over Bengals

9ers stomp the Cowboys

[Ftn49]

2 hours ago, NinerNation21 said:

All of this nostalgia and rivalry talk made me want to go look at our playoff history and here's our top "rivals" in the playoffs:

• 5-4 against the Packers (9 games) - Beat them once to go to the SB and beat them twice to go to the NFCCG. Packers did the same to us, too. 
• 4-4 against the Giants (8 games) - Beat them 3 times to go to the NFCCG, lost to them twice in the NFCCG. 
• 3-5 against the Cowboys (8 games) - Beat them twice to go to the SB, lost to them 4 times in the NFCCG.
• 5-1 against the Vikings (6 games) - All games in the Divisional round.
• 3-1 against the Redskins (4 games) - Beat them 3 times to go to the NFCCG, lost once to them in the NFCCG.

Everyone else are onesies and twosies. In terms of historical rivals, it has to be the Cowboys, but if you input recency bias, it's the Packers. 

I could look it up but haven't. Our more recent playoff games against GB have for the most part come in our favor with Aaron, but Farve was our kryptonite. I still remember the game he won in a walkoff with Freddie Mitchell when he was with Minnesota and we were good. I hate respected him more than any other NFL player in my fandom. He must have had like a 8-2 record against us or some such thing. To me our rivals are DAL>GB>SEA.

[Ftn49]

And I do a pretty good job of not being too high or too low coming out of games recently, but if we lose this one... It wont be pleasant.

[NFL Network]

1 hour ago, Chrissooner49er said:

Jags pull a miracle vs Chiefs (please, please, please, please, please, PUH-LEEZE!) 🙏

Giants over Eagles

Bills over Bengals

9ers stomp the Cowboys

Well if the Jags beat the Chiefs then you might as well hand the AFC over to the Bills which I don't want to.

[J-ALL-DAY]

Kind of like us last year when we played the Rams, Cowboys, Packers and Rams again all on the road. 

Cowboys having to go on the road for the fourth consecutive time definitely sucks for them.