Jump to content

End of Season Mock 2023


Madmike90
 Share

Recommended Posts

Just to try and put some context around the Free Agency and what I mean by tiers (I rank them 1-5)...here is how I see them...

Tier 1

Daron Payne - Primer position, young, productive, perfect scheme fit.

Tier 2

Tremaine Edmunds - young, productive, perfect scheme fit but doesn't play a primer position.

Jawaan Taylor - Primer position, young, productive but isn't viewed as a top 10 player at his position.

Charles Omenihu - Primer position, young, perfect scheme fit but hasn't had a massive amount of production.

Tier 3

Foster Moreau - Young, productive as a #2, potential to save us money down the line...but not a primer position and has never been a true starter.

Arden Key - Primer position, solid production in a limited role...but isn't a starter.

Bobby Okereke - Perfect scheme fit, Productive tacker but not an elite play maker & doesn't play a primer position.

Rock Ya-Sin - Perfect scheme fit, primer position but has never been massively productive especially in taking the ball away.

Matt Gay - good kicker but a kicker is never really going to cost a lot

Tier 4

Darius Slayton - Primer position, was productive early in his career but has drop concerns and won't ever be a reliable long term starter.

Evan Brown - athletic upside but only 1 year of production as a starter.

Derrick Nnadi - Primer position but DTs with limited pass rush production tend to get devalued.

Donovan Wilson - Perfect scheme fit but doesn't play a primer position and only has 1 years production.

Tier 5

NA

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

The problem is, doing all these deals, it isnt about the impact on just 2023. Those deals impact '24 and '25 and so on. If we can find guys who want to rebuild stock for 1 year or 1 year + option deals, then Im all about that. But those arent bountiful options. 

Ive said it many times, we currently have too much cap room to responsibly spend all in one offseason. Its why many have talked abouot extensions (JJ, Mooney, Claypool, Kmet) and I would love to be the dumping ground for a bad contract just this year. I dont currently see any of those, but if someone wants to send us a bad contract along with a draft pick and we just cut and eat the money, Id be ecstatic. But again, not always an option.

I think your assumption that "Ownership on down" is expecting us to compete in 2023 is way off. There is NO WAY that Poles came in with this plan that he just executed in 2022 and then also told everyone that we will be competing in one years time. He would have been laughed out of the interview. Now if you want to say see obvious growth? Sure. Competing for playoff by 2024, maybe. But this was a commitment to a long haul rebuild, and now it seems like the fans want to skip the build after the tear down. Doesnt work like that.

If Im being honest, its not about any of the specific players that you have added in Free Agency, but this type of approach (the amount and dollar cost of Free Agents) is how you wind up right back in a messy cap without a foundation of the franchise. You have 13 impact signings here. With a retention of one big impact guy (Monty) and 2 trades for impact veterans. Thats 16 guys we are bringing in expecting alot of of them. And unfortunately, its likely that atleast 1/4 of them are wash outs within the year. Which is fine if those guys are all 1 year deals, rosters turn over, no big deal.  But those that you have us signing, are unlikely to be 1 year deals other than 1 or 2 of them, so the rest will heavily impact the 2024 Cap as well. 

I mean I just disagree with this. Whitehir is a solid lineman, who was playing between a Rookie LT and a Center who should have never seen the field. When he is around good talent, in this system, he should work well. If you want to say he isnt worth $9m salary, thats fine, but there are options other than Cutting him, especially without having a reliable replacement. I like Darnell Wright as much as you do, but to think we KNOW he will be able to step in and take over that LG spot no problem is just lying to ourselves. You make those type of cuts once you KNOW that you have the solution. And if it costs us $9m in salary (non guaranteed, and can be cut at any time) to hang on to Cody Whitehair till we are sure that his replacement can handle it, Ill do that and cut him next offseason. Not every player at every level of the team is going to be a stud, the NFL just doesnt allow that. 

Except after One major signing (Payne) we are right back at the level of the other big spenders. And a second one (Taylor) puts us down amongst everyone else. Its also that type of thinking that gets you into bad contracts (Albert Haynesworth), not to mention, its not just about the Salary Cap, its about Real Cash. I dont trust we are ready to shell out that much Cash in a single offseason.

I think when you look at this team going forward we are still in a great position cap wise for 2024 & even 2025...we are still #1 in cap space in those years and we have easy cuts/walks of our current larger contracts in those years like Eddie Jackson saving $18 million...if Whitehair is already gone that takes away $13.5 million...next highest earner if Fields on $6 million...this franchise will have very little bad money after what we did this year and that allows us to make these players our big hitters when it comes to the cap...in terms of the extensions we can still get that done with these contracts for as long as we have Fields on a rookie deal...

The Bengals for example have 12 players making $8 million or more this season...we had 2...with a rookie QB deal you have a ton of flexibility over multiple years and the fact the cap will go up means you can follow the Saints example and kick money down the road so it becomes less of a percentage of your cap spend...

We will never agree on Whitehair...I just don't see a quality linemen and have watched lesser known players around the league look far more solid...as I said I think we overrate him because he has been our best for a while but that is not a positive...it's just a lot of guys were really bad...

And one high value FA signing does not bring us back down to everyone else...even two wouldn't...we have almost double the next team and they will also be in the market for high value players...as Warren said in his sit down interview...it's okay to raise the expectations and I think we will do that by being aggressive in FA and trying to turn things around quickly.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, Madmike90 said:

Just to try and put some context around the Free Agency and what I mean by tiers (I rank them 1-5)...here is how I see them...

Tier 1

Daron Payne - Primer position, young, productive, perfect scheme fit.

Tier 2

Tremaine Edmunds - young, productive, perfect scheme fit but doesn't play a primer position.

Jawaan Taylor - Primer position, young, productive but isn't viewed as a top 10 player at his position.

Charles Omenihu - Primer position, young, perfect scheme fit but hasn't had a massive amount of production.

Tier 3

Foster Moreau - Young, productive as a #2, potential to save us money down the line...but not a primer position and has never been a true starter.

Arden Key - Primer position, solid production in a limited role...but isn't a starter.

Bobby Okereke - Perfect scheme fit, Productive tacker but not an elite play maker & doesn't play a primer position.

Rock Ya-Sin - Perfect scheme fit, primer position but has never been massively productive especially in taking the ball away.

Matt Gay - good kicker but a kicker is never really going to cost a lot

Tier 4

Darius Slayton - Primer position, was productive early in his career but has drop concerns and won't ever be a reliable long term starter.

Evan Brown - athletic upside but only 1 year of production as a starter.

Derrick Nnadi - Primer position but DTs with limited pass rush production tend to get devalued.

Donovan Wilson - Perfect scheme fit but doesn't play a primer position and only has 1 years production.

Tier 5

NA

Daron Payne is getting a very large contract as he fits the needs of many perfectly and players of his caliber don't hit FA that often right after first contract is up.   I can definitely see Payne being our splash move.   But Poles will have limits on how much he will pay for Payne.  So if someone bids it to crazy levels he will bow out.  

Due to position scarcity Jawaan Taylor will be a tier 1 FA I think.  Too many teams need OTs all the time.  

Also due to position scarcity and age Arden Key will be a Tier 2 and if he plays well in playoffs may even move all the way to Tier 1.

Edmunds is playing a not scarce position, but he is still young and long which teams absolutely love as it disrupts passing lanes.  Plus his arrow is still pointing up in development as a player.  He has not even peaked.   He will command good money and will probably be gone early in FA.   All that being said, I think Poles is not interested.  

When I say Tier 1 or 2 - I mean guys that are being courted, competed and bidded on by multiple teams.

I think we have very small chance of signing all of Payne, Taylor, Edmunds, Key and Slayton. 

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

Daron Payne is getting a very large contract as he fits the needs of many perfectly and players of his caliber don't hit FA that often right after first contract is up.   I can definitely see Payne being our splash move.   But Poles will have limits on how much he will pay for Payne.  So if someone bids it to crazy levels he will bow out.  

Due to position scarcity Jawaan Taylor will be a tier 1 FA I think.  Too many teams need OTs all the time.  

Also due to position scarcity and age Arden Key will be a Tier 2 and if he plays well in playoffs may even move all the way to Tier 1.

Edmunds is playing a not scarce position, but he is still young and long which teams absolutely love as it disrupts passing lanes.  Plus his arrow is still pointing up in development as a player.  He has not even peaked.   He will command good money and will probably be gone early in FA.   All that being said, I think Poles is not interested.  

When I say Tier 1 or 2 - I mean guys that are being courted, competed and bidded on by multiple teams.

I think we have very small chance of signing all of Payne, Taylor, Edmunds, Key and Slayton. 

 

 

 

 

For me Payne will get paid and deserves to get paid...he is a stud...

Taylor I am not sure I see him as tier 1...as I said he isn't a top 10 player at his position and there are a lot of strong RTs about to hit the market...Mike McGlinchey & Caleb McGary are probably going to get just as much if not more attention in FA...not only that but Jack Conklin getting only $15 million a season to stay with the Browns sets the market and I suspect all these guys make less than that.

Key is coming off back to back 1 years deals and has only played 50%+ of the Jags defensive snaps in 5 games this season...I don't see anyone giving him even true starters money...he has found his role and that is $4-$6 million a year range IMO...I don't even see him signing for more than a year or two...I would also say the EDGE position in FA & especially the draft is plentiful this year.

I think Edmunds gets good money on a long contract but that is fine IMO...we need that WILL and he has shown playing in a very similar scheme he can be a great asset there...I can't understand why Poles wouldn't be interested...just because he didn't want to pay Roquan doesn't mean he will shy away from quality LBs for the rest of his career.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You have a lot of players I have in my (working) mock off season. I just didn't  predict any trades and not quite as much turn over and player movement as you for the reasons that others have said. But it would be a great off season if it happened.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

×
×
  • Create New...