Joe Burrow has inserted himself as a Top 2 QB along with Mahomes.

[mdonnelly21]

Sorry Josh Allen, Burrow is now better than you and imo in a league of his own with Mahomes... 

Last year I thought Allen was almost neck and neck with Mahomes. Boy was I wrong. This year, Burrow has done more to me both accomplishments and on eye test. 

 

Edited January 23, 2023 by mdonnelly21

[Soggust]

I know it's not the heart of your thread, but my hot take is that I'm not sure Burrow is on Mahomes level, even if he beats Mahomes next week to go 4-0 against him and wins the SB this year.

Because even at that point, Burrow will have 1 ring and 2 SB appearances in 3 years starting (just like Mahomes had) but he will be missing an MVP (during that stretch, will be 2 behind overall), a top-3 All Time Season, and will have worse career stats to date and during the first years starting. You can possibly make an argument the last 2 years are comparable statistically (the Josh Allen argument vs Mahomes), but its arguable at best and certainly doesn't outweigh the difference in hardware imo.

Bengals fans will obviously argue 4-0, but again, Burrow started his career 0-4 against the Browns, so it's a pretty tough case to make with any legitimacy, in my mind. 

Maybe you could argue "well he's capable of playing just as well as Mahomes", which is obviously true, but so is Allen by that argument. Hell, I just saw Dak Prescott put up 5 TDs last week. We are splitting hairs over consistency, recency, and resume with these guys, in my mind.

If the difference in hardware doesn't separate a tier, what does?

--------

So how about Josh Allen? 

edit - I'm picking 2021 - 2022 here because I feel like it's most favorable to the player that I'm making the argument against.

						Passing															Rushing
Rk	Player	From	To	AV	G	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Rate	Lng	Int	Sk	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	NY/A	ANY/A	Att	Yds	TD	Y/A	Lng
1	Josh Allen	2021	2022	39	33	24-9-0	768	1213	63.3	8690	71	94.2	98	29	59	326	7.2	7.26	6.58	6.67	246	1525	13	6.2	44
2	Joe Burrow	2021	2022	32	32	22-10-0	780	1126	69.3	9086	69	104.2	82	26	92	629	8.1	8.26	6.94	7.12	115	375	7	3.3	23

At first glance, I thought "oh easy Burrow". But add the total yards and TDs and I think I might rather have the 3 more picks and 3 more fumbles lost with a lesser supporting cast.

You might make the case that Burrow has more playoff success, but conversely Allen's numbers crush Burrow's playoff numbers (to date) so I feel like it's kind of a wash.

Super close imo, don't have a problem with either, but I think I'll barely keep Allen at #2 and them both in the same tier. If Burrow wins a SB this year (and maybe even if he just makes one), I think he separates himself above Allen as a ring or two appearances will outweigh everything I just mentioned imo.

edit- Reread this after writing it and I already disagree with myself lol. I think I take Burrow in hindsight, but I'll leave the argument up anyway. It's certainly close though.

Edited January 23, 2023 by Soggust

[AngusMcFife]

Mahomes is the top-1 QB and should not share a tier with anyone. Performing like he did this regular season after trading Hill proved that. 

I'm not as high on Burrow simply because he has such elite weapons. His weapons are easily top-3 (along with Dolphins, Eagles), but his production isn't top-3. The one year he didn't have Chase he was mediocre. 

[SmittyBacall]

2 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

His weapons are easily top-3 (along with Dolphins, Eagles), but his production isn't top-3.

You mean to say more goes into quarterbacking than just weapons? Ya don't say.

3 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

The one year he didn't have Chase he was mediocre. 

You mean when he was a rookie on a 2-14 team? 😂 Okay, guy.

[AngusMcFife]

14 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

You mean to say more goes into quarterbacking than just weapons? Ya don't say.

I'm not sure what you are trying to say. I'd expect a "top-2" QB, if given premium weapons, to perform like a top 2 QB, not 5-10ish. 

Quote

You mean when he was a rookie on a 2-14 team? 😂 Okay, guy.

He was a 24 year old rookie, so I think it's fair to evaluate that year. For instance, this is the 24 age season for Herbert, Tua, Hurts, but I don't see anyone making excuses for their play based on their age.

Edited January 23, 2023 by AngusMcFife
a word got censored

[Kiwibrown]

Josh Allen imonis capable of higher levels of play than Burrow, but Burrow is a lot more consistent. 

Allen is a physical freak and has an amazing arm, Burrow is better outside of that 

[Jeezla]

C Jalen Hurts

[Soko]

5 hours ago, AngusMcFife said:

He was a 24 year old rookie, so I think it's fair to evaluate that year. For instance, this is the 24 age season for Herbert, Tua, Hurts, but I don't see anyone making excuses for their play based on their age.

You evaluate the year, but it’s still a rookie season. The premise is you cut slack for the rookie season, not the age. The reason you don’t see anyone saying anything about those other guys’ ages is because…most people don’t account for age like that. No one ever compares “age 24 seasons”, they compare rookie seasons if anything.

[AngusMcFife]

6 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

You evaluate the year, but it’s still a rookie season. The premise is you cut slack for the rookie season, not the age. The reason you don’t see anyone saying anything about those other guys’ ages is because…most people don’t account for age like that. No one ever compares “age 24 seasons”, they compare rookie seasons if anything.

I just don't think that's a smart way of doing things. If a "rookie season" has the same meaning for a QB who started college at 18, spent 3 years there and turned pro, vs a QB who started college at 19, spent 5 years there and turned pro, its really a worthless term. Human brain growth doesn't really slow down until 24 or 25. Especially prefrontal cortex. 

For instance take Kenny Pickett. Yes some think he had a promising rookie year. But he was a 24 year old rookie. If he came in at 24 and wasn't at least decent, that'd be disastrous. As it is, he had a nice season but honestly anyone expecting much more growth will probably be disappointed. 

The reason Burrow made a leap from his rookie year to year two wasn't as much his development as the addition of Chase, the development of Higgins, and the improvement of his surrounding players. He was a fairly polished product coming out of college. Yes, he has improved his pocket awareness, but that's partially due to better O-line play. He's still a bit reckless with limited athleticism. 

[Soko]

1 minute ago, AngusMcFife said:

I just don't think that's a smart way of doing things. If a "rookie season" has the same meaning for a QB who started college at 18, spent 3 years there and turned pro, vs a QB who started college at 19, spent 5 years there and turned pro, its really a worthless term. Human brain growth doesn't really slow down until 24 or 25. Especially prefrontal cortex. 

For instance take Kenny Pickett. Yes some think he had a promising rookie year. But he was a 24 year old rookie. If he came in at 24 and wasn't at least decent, that'd be disastrous. As it is, he had a nice season but honestly anyone expecting much more growth will probably be disappointed. 

You’d certainly give a 20 year old rookie QB with only one year of being a starter a little bit more slack than most, but other than that, no one really cares. A rookie is a rookie. You have a guy for 4-5 years on a rookie deal, you’ve got to develop him and help him out to get acclimated to a new game. Who cares if he’s 24 or 22. 

1 minute ago, AngusMcFife said:

The reason Burrow made a leap from his rookie year to year two wasn't as much his development as the addition of Chase, the development of Higgins, and the improvement of his surrounding players. He was a fairly polished product coming out of college. Yes, he has improved his pocket awareness, but that's partially due to better O-line play. He's still a bit reckless with limited athleticism. 

Better OL play? He’s gotten league average OL play and it s by far the best of his career. Chase missed 5 games and was capped big time this year by the way defenses were playing them. Higgins and Boyd help, sure. If you think they’re the reason for Burrow’s development, then you just aren’t watching.

If Higgins and Chase are the excuse for Burrow, does Allen also get dinged for having Diggs and Davis? AND better pass protection? That duo outproduced Chase and Higgins this year, so surely Allen’s development must also be based on Diggs coming to town and the development of the other receivers in the offense. Surely.

[mdonnelly21]

27 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

You evaluate the year, but it’s still a rookie season. The premise is you cut slack for the rookie season, not the age. The reason you don’t see anyone saying anything about those other guys’ ages is because…most people don’t account for age like that. No one ever compares “age 24 seasons”, they compare rookie seasons if anything.

Took the words right out of my mouth. 

Those Qbs who are "24" still have experienced their rookie seasons that experience goes a long way in terms of catching up to game speed. Almost no QBs in history have had good rookie seasons. Peyton Manning was absolutely terrible and he turned out to be a top 5 QB of all time give or take a spot. 

Burrow was drafted #1 for a reason. Because he was going to one the worst team in the league. I hold 0 stock in what he did his rookie season, just like I do any other player. 

Edited January 24, 2023 by mdonnelly21

[mdonnelly21]

6 hours ago, AngusMcFife said:

Mahomes is the top-1 QB and should not share a tier with anyone. Performing like he did this regular season after trading Hill proved that. 

I'm not as high on Burrow simply because he has such elite weapons. His weapons are easily top-3 (along with Dolphins, Eagles), but his production isn't top-3. The one year he didn't have Chase he was mediocre. 

According to the poll. 

Mahomes is in a league of his own as the best QB in the league. 

And then Burrow is on an island at the #2 spot. 

Although I do still think most people include Allen in the same tier as Burrow even if Burrow leaped him. 

[SmittyBacall]

45 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

You’d certainly give a 20 year old rookie QB with only one year of being a starter a little bit more slack than most, but other than that, no one really cares. A rookie is a rookie. You have a guy for 4-5 years on a rookie deal, you’ve got to develop him and help him out to get acclimated to a new game. Who cares if he’s 24 or 22. 

Better OL play? He’s gotten league average OL play and it s by far the best of his career. Chase missed 5 games and was capped big time this year by the way defenses were playing them. Higgins and Boyd help, sure. If you think they’re the reason for Burrow’s development, then you just aren’t watching.

If Higgins and Chase are the excuse for Burrow, does Allen also get dinged for having Diggs and Davis? AND better pass protection? That duo outproduced Chase and Higgins this year, so surely Allen’s development must also be based on Diggs coming to town and the development of the other receivers in the offense. Surely.

Dude, don’t even bother.

[diamondbull424]

1 hour ago, mdonnelly21 said:

According to the poll. 

Mahomes is in a league of his own as the best QB in the league. 

And then Burrow is on an island at the #2 spot. 

Although I do still think most people include Allen in the same tier as Burrow even if Burrow leaped him. 

Recency bias. Allen has been playing injured and just lost to Burrow’s team and was outplayed.

Whereas if this was the Allen from last year (or even at the start of this season before the shoulder injury) against KC vs this seasons Burrow, I think most people would take Allen.

[AngusMcFife]

1 hour ago, mdonnelly21 said:

Almost no QBs in history have had good rookie seasons.

Herbert had a great rookie year. Dak had a great rookie year. Brock Purdy is lighting it up. Now that passing is easier, it's not that uncommon for rookie QBs to excel. You might want to reevaluate your thoughts on this.