Mox Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Just now, BofaDeez54927 said: Eh, format error, but that's not all that different. My point is that most people refuse to move from their viewpoint/narrative even when presented with new evidence. No better example than Goff. Having to show it another year even though the guy had multiple successful seasons before becoming a Lion is a good example of that. And if we're being honest, he's not going to move up that far even if he plays well again next year. The mark of being a great QB is consistency. Goff has struggled to show that. His first 9 games of 2021 were trash, then he finished hot in the last five games. Needing to see more from him seems pretty reasonable. He has more years at or below league average than he has over it. Even still I'd bet he'd be ranked higher overall than you'd think if we did a list now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jameson_Neat Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 20 minutes ago, Bullet Club said: The mark of being a great QB is consistency. Goff has struggled to show that. His first 9 games of 2021 were trash, then he finished hot in the last five games. Needing to see more from him seems pretty reasonable. He has more years at or below league average than he has over it. Even still I'd bet he'd be ranked higher overall than you'd think if we did a list now. Sure, a few stinkers in the first half of the season, but he was playing for a first-time play caller that came up with a system with a HC that had also been a first-time playcaller in those 5 games in the previous season. Add injuries to his top playmaking RB, top OL and his best two WRs, and maybe there's a little nuance to why players play the way do at times? What exactly are we expecting when surrounded by guys like Craig Reynolds, Josh Reynolds and Khalif Raymond or running plays from Anthony Lynn, yet another inexperienced play-caller? How can you be consistent in those circumstances or when the relationship becomes toxic like it did with McVay? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mox Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 38 minutes ago, BofaDeez54927 said: Sure, a few stinkers in the first half of the season, but he was playing for a first-time play caller that came up with a system with a HC that had also been a first-time playcaller in those 5 games in the previous season. Add injuries to his top playmaking RB, top OL and his best two WRs, and maybe there's a little nuance to why players play the way do at times? What exactly are we expecting when surrounded by guys like Craig Reynolds, Josh Reynolds and Khalif Raymond or running plays from Anthony Lynn, yet another inexperienced play-caller? How can you be consistent in those circumstances or when the relationship becomes toxic like it did with McVay? That's all fair. I think it's still clear why there is reason to want to see more before he's cemented as a consensus top QB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AngusMcFife Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 10 hours ago, NoFlyZone said: People put a little too much weight in DVOA.. though as I've said before I appreciate what they try and accomplish. What 8 QBs are you taking over Burrow? Even going off your range of 5-10... at best what 4 are you taking over him? Mahomes is in a tier of his own, but other than making an argument for Josh Allen who are you really taking over Burrow? I can't think of anyone, really. I would rank QBs by tier. I think Mahomes is first tier, and Allen probably has a second tier of his own. His upside as a thrower and runner really can't be matched. Then I think there is a nebulous 3rd tier with quite a few names and varied skill sets. These are QBs that could produce at an elite level if surrounded by ideal supporting cast and coaching. I'd include Burrow, Herbert, Lamar, Brady, Rodgers, maybe Hurts. A healthy Stafford as well. Brady and Rodgers could deteriorate quickly, though, given their age. The issue with elevating Burrow is that he is surrounded by awesome weapons and his production is about on par with Gino Smith and Goff. I'd rank Burrow higher than those two, but I'm suspicious of ranking him higher given his production is not that impressive given his weapons. Quote Personally I'd say Burrow is playing like the 2nd best QB in the game behind Mahomes. Allen is of course also right there. That's fine but if you removed him from Cincy and put him on a team with average WRs, do you think he'd be playing like the 2nd best QB in the game? And why, if he's the 2nd best QB in game, is his production 5-10ish? It certainly can't be because of his incredible WR corps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 On 1/26/2023 at 2:43 PM, AngusMcFife said: I think you are intentionally downplaying the quality of the O-line to prop Burrow up The OL was bad to start the year and came around about midseason. It's back to being ravaged again. The backups played well last week against a Buffalo team struggling to create pressure. Let's see how they play this week. On 1/26/2023 at 2:43 PM, AngusMcFife said: Last year I think the O-line was closer to average than one of the worst. I mean, that's just ridiculous. The OL was terrible last year by literally every metric. They gave up 51 regular season sacks, and another 19 in the playoffs. How is this even a discussion? As for his career, he's been sacked 148 times in 3 years (including playoffs), which is the most in the NFL over that span. For perspective, that's 45 more than Josh Allen, and 55 more than Patrick Mahomes. The dude has taking a beating since entering the league and wins and produces at a high level despite of it. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AngusMcFife Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 2 hours ago, SmittyBacall said: I mean, that's just ridiculous. The OL was terrible last year by literally every metric. They gave up 51 regular season sacks, and another 19 in the playoffs. How is this even a discussion? QB holds the ball long, it's gonna result in a lot of sacks. Burrow admitted he didn't mind taking sacks on 3rd downs, he didn't think it was a bad outcome. The reason his Y/A was so high last year was because he was always hunting for big plays, so when he got off an attempt the reward was high. But the downside was a lot of sacks. Burrow was not some hapless bystander in this process. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AngusMcFife Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 2 hours ago, SmittyBacall said: The OL was terrible last year by literally every metric. Do you consider 20th out of 32 terrible? It's fairly close to average. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 37 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said: QB holds the ball long He was 9th in the NFL in Time to Throw last season at 2.69 seconds. Wanna try again? https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing/2021/REG/all#average-time-to-throw 41 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said: The reason his Y/A was so high last year was because he was always hunting for big plays, so when he got off an attempt the reward was high. But the downside was a lot of sacks. His Y/A was higher because defenses didn’t shell rookie Ja’Marr Chase, so the big plays were more available. The coverage has changed this year. Teams are taking away the deep ball so the offense had to adapt to be more efficient. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluhartz Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 42 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said: He was 9th in the NFL in Time to Throw last season at 2.69 seconds. Wanna try again? https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing/2021/REG/all#average-time-to-throw His Y/A was higher because defenses didn’t shell rookie Ja’Marr Chase, so the big plays were more available. The coverage has changed this year. Teams are taking away the deep ball so the offense had to adapt to be more efficient. you can't make sense to someone trying to hijack the thread pimping their guy.. this thread got stupid for something that started out as just a question.. but but Allen can throw it real far and can run over people, he must be the best.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayRaider Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 I still have Allen over Burrow (slightly), one game doesn't change that. But if Burrow wins the Super Bowl this year, and also wins MVP next season, he's the best QB in the NFL, even above Mahomes. Burrow may not be as gifted as guys like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, and Lamar Jackson, and his arm historically is not on par with guys like Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers. There are a lot of Tom Brady-like qualities to Joe Burrow. His football IQ is obviously amazing. His arm is good enough to make every NFL throw, just not a great arm by any stretch. His Pocket Presence is world-class. He's fearless but not wreckless. He's mobile "enough". He is probably the best thrower with anticipation in the NFL as well, a big time Franchise QB quality trait. Burrow has perfected throwing with anticipation. Basically throwing with anticipation is the same thing as throwing a guy open, you throw it to where you want the guy to be, making him open, and the defender can't defend it (even if it's by a couple inches). Burrow is the best at this in the NFL. And he's just a winner, a winner with a mamba mentality. His mentality and competitiveness is basically Tom Brady. He's also the most swag QB as well probably, but he has his work cut out for him if he ever wants to defeat the swag king Ryan Fitzpatrick. Good luck to Joe Burrow and his NFL career. I'm envious of Bengal fans but also happy for them! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AngusMcFife Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 17 hours ago, SmittyBacall said: He was 9th in the NFL in Time to Throw last season at 2.69 seconds. Wanna try again? https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing/2021/REG/all#average-time-to-throw That would be 10th, my numerically-challenged friend. The issue here is there isn't a meaningful relationship between TT and sacks allowed. Tom Brady had an incredibly low TT at 2.5, but only took 22 sacks. Was his offensive line bad, or did he throw the ball away more than Burrow instead of taking sacks? If Burrow had made some throwaways on plays that he was sacked, his TT would go up but his sacks would go down. This is the tradeoff Burrow specifically acknowledges: "Here's the thing about sacks. There's good sacks and bad sacks. You look at the stats, yeah i got sacked a lot. But you look at when they happened — third-down sacks, who cares about third-down sacks," he explained. "I'm going to try to extend the play as long as i can on third down and get the first down... I think sacks are an overblown stat." Quote His Y/A was higher because defenses didn’t shell rookie Ja’Marr Chase, so the big plays were more available. The coverage has changed this year. Teams are taking away the deep ball so the offense had to adapt to be more efficient. That's great that he's trying to be more efficient. As soon as he becomes one of the most efficient QBs in the league, I'll consider him as a top-2 QB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soggust Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 3 hours ago, AngusMcFife said: That would be 10th, my numerically-challenged friend. The issue here is there isn't a meaningful relationship between TT and sacks allowed. Tom Brady had an incredibly low TT at 2.5, but only took 22 sacks. Was his offensive line bad, or did he throw the ball away more than Burrow instead of taking sacks? Up to here, I'm following along with you. Brady gets rid of the ball quickly (low TT); therefore, he took less sacks. Makes sense. 3 hours ago, AngusMcFife said: If Burrow had made some throwaways on plays that he was sacked, his TT would go up but his sacks would go down. This is where you lose me. We just said low TT = low sacks (in the Brady example). So why would a higher TT result in less sacks? And why would throwing the ball away increase his TT (especially given your next example)? 3 hours ago, AngusMcFife said: "Here's the thing about sacks. There's good sacks and bad sacks. You look at the stats, yeah i got sacked a lot. But you look at when they happened — third-down sacks, who cares about third-down sacks," he explained. "I'm going to try to extend the play as long as i can on third down and get the first down... I think sacks are an overblown stat." Burrow is saying a higher TT (extending the play) = more sacks here. So, wouldn't throwing the ball away result in a lower TT? ---------- If we are saying Burrow has a low time to throw, but takes a lot of sacks, it's probably due to poor OL play right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AngusMcFife Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 1 hour ago, Soggust said: Up to here, I'm following along with you. Brady gets rid of the ball quickly (low TT); therefore, he took less sacks. Makes sense. This is where you lose me. We just said low TT = low sacks (in the Brady example). So why would a higher TT result in less sacks? And why would throwing the ball away increase his TT (especially given your next example)? Burrow is saying a higher TT (extending the play) = more sacks here. So, wouldn't throwing the ball away result in a lower TT? ---------- If we are saying Burrow has a low time to throw, but takes a lot of sacks, it's probably due to poor OL play right? The premise I am going for is that if a QB takes a sack and doesn't throw the ball away, TT is not calculated (sacks excluded - see methodology). If a QB is maneuvering in the pocket for 3 seconds and takes a sack, TT is unaffected. If a QB is maneuvering in the pocket for 3 seconds and throws the ball away, TT goes up. So a QB who doesn't throw the ball away and takes sacks will have a lower TT than one who throws it away after maneuvering in the pocket. Burrow is on record saying he didn't mind sacks in 2021: that is reflected is his high completion % (few throwaways) and high sack %, and low TT. The Brady example is simply that TT isn't correlated with offensive line play. Maybe I should have used more/better examples. Ryan Tannehill had roughly similar TT and sack % as Burrow in 2021. Just looking at TT in 2021, it seems that having high TT is the result of 1) athletic QBs who maneuver the pocket like Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, Fields, Hurts, 2) young/inexperienced QBs who struggle making fast decisions (Wilson, Lawrence, Fields, Darnold). Low TT seems to be vets or fast-processors (Brady, Rodgers, Big Ben, Tua). The Ravens had a bad O-line in 2021, and Lamar had a high TT, while Huntley had a low TT. The Bears had a bad O-line, and Fields had a high TT, while Dalton had a low TT. TT is mostly QB dependent. It doesn't really tell you anything about O-line play, it just informs you of the QBs habits. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlaqOptic Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 When we play Mahomes I want to **** myself because I know we're gonna get dogwalked. When we play Burrow I'm more worried about Chase than Burrow. When we play Allen, I'm worried out Defense is going to get carved up because of terrible playcalling. Mahomes is on an island by himself and it's not close. Guys like Burrow, Allen, Rodgers, etc are all fighting for 2nd and it's a distant second. And since we're supposed to ignore weapons, is Jalen Hurts has another season like this he leapfrogs both of them. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soggust Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 55 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said: The premise I am going for is that if a QB takes a sack and doesn't throw the ball away, TT is not calculated (sacks excluded - see methodology). If a QB is maneuvering in the pocket for 3 seconds and takes a sack, TT is unaffected. If a QB is maneuvering in the pocket for 3 seconds and throws the ball away, TT goes up. So a QB who doesn't throw the ball away and takes sacks will have a lower TT than one who throws it away after maneuvering in the pocket. Burrow is on record saying he didn't mind sacks in 2021: that is reflected is his high completion % (few throwaways) and high sack %, and low TT. The Brady example is simply that TT isn't correlated with offensive line play. Maybe I should have used more/better examples. Ryan Tannehill had roughly similar TT and sack % as Burrow in 2021. Just looking at TT in 2021, it seems that having high TT is the result of 1) athletic QBs who maneuver the pocket like Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, Fields, Hurts, 2) young/inexperienced QBs who struggle making fast decisions (Wilson, Lawrence, Fields, Darnold). Low TT seems to be vets or fast-processors (Brady, Rodgers, Big Ben, Tua). The Ravens had a bad O-line in 2021, and Lamar had a high TT, while Huntley had a low TT. The Bears had a bad O-line, and Fields had a high TT, while Dalton had a low TT. TT is mostly QB dependent. It doesn't really tell you anything about O-line play, it just informs you of the QBs habits. Ah, this is the piece I was ignorant of. Thank you for the explanation, this argument makes more sense to me now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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