The Lamar offseason talk thread

[diamondbull424]

Another one that I would’ve just posted into the “Random Ravens thoughts” but should probably have its own thread.

So I’ve got nothing new to report, but I figured any Lamar contract updates or trade rumors or whatever comes about could be discussed here.

And on that note, I posted this elsewhere (Facebook) and wondered what this forum thinks would be “fair value” or what they would feel a “good deal” would be for Lamar. Here is my take:

[Rumors were they offered Lamar 6 years, $290m… and that they offered him in between 160-180m guaranteed.

The guarantees were apparently stated within an interview from early in the season by Lamar, however I’ve not seen the interview to confirm.

Rumor also is Lamar wants fully guaranteed, though it might be that he would be willing to accept more guarantees than Deshaun Watson, which that mark would be $230m.

I think ultimately a fair deal (for both sides) that could get done would be something like:

- 7 years, $325.5m (2nd highest total)
- $46.5 APY (3rd highest APY)
- $232.5 guaranteed at signing (1st in NFL)
- First five seasons all guaranteed.
- Team Option for final two seasons, which can be used for salary dump years to help offset the earlier guarantees (if Lamar pulls a Flacco and doesn’t perform) or they can pay Lamar the final $90m at what might be a bargain 6-7 years from now.
- Standard morality clause in contract can void guarantees if Lamar does something crazy like is involved in a high speed chase, dog fighting, SA with 26 women, pulling an Earl Thomas, or something otherwise crazy.
- 7 years would absolutely be on the longer side for a “running style QB” but it would be team option years that can be activated only if/when Lamar is playing well enough to deserve said deal. Plus if Lamar is playing well the team may want to extend him five years in or so and with two team option years on the backend that would give them ideal leverage in negotiations that essentially gives them some “franchise tag” type of years to utilize in keeping the number more “team friendly” than not. Plus Lamar wins as he gets to be guaranteed ~$93m in the event that he’s a valuable enough player 5 years from now.
- $232.5m is a lot to commit to a “running style QB” but ultimately, with two potential dump years for various bonuses paid, the final two years if structured in specific ways could lessen any cap burdens in the event we decide to move up off of Lamar and go into a rebuild (eg second/biggest signing bonus in year 3, as IIRC bonuses can only prorate 5 years, which can allow the team to dump salary into the final two seasons.) Yet Lamar ultimately wins because if he wants “fully guaranteed” and the Ravens don’t/refuse to give a “fully guaranteed” deal because of NFL collusion, then the next best thing is to just guarantee more than the most guaranteed league wide… while still making it so the deal isn’t “fully guaranteed.” We can let some other team play chicken with their QB while we navigate to a deal that both sides can feel like they equally lost and equally won.

[paraven]

Hes gone, if the reports are true, that the ravens only offered him 133 million guaranteed last offseason, there's no way they close that gap to get to what he wants. 2023 didn't exactly help or hurt his stock, it was sort of status Quo.

[Ray Reed]

1 hour ago, paraven said:

Hes gone, if the reports are true, that the ravens only offered him 133 million guaranteed last offseason, there's no way they close that gap to get to what he wants. 2023 didn't exactly help or hurt his stock, it was sort of status Quo.

 

Been really confused why the $133 Million has been reported lately considering Lamar himself said it was between 160-180 

[diamondbull424]

43 minutes ago, paraven said:

Hes gone, if the reports are true, that the ravens only offered him 133 million guaranteed last offseason, there's no way they close that gap to get to what he wants. 2023 didn't exactly help or hurt his stock, it was sort of status Quo.

The Ravens were offering more than that per Jackson himself. Though it’s possible that both reports are true to a degree. It’s possible the Ravens offered $133 fully guaranteed at signing, but similar to Wilson had $165m in guarantees which would’ve been activated by option bonuses in year two and year three that would carry the prorated amounts over the preceding five years. Which when activated those bonuses would rise the guarantees up to $160-180m.

So if Lamar is willing to count guarantees in his analysis, then that means he’s confident he will achieve option bonuses and thus it means we may not have to “fully guarantee at signing” all his guarantees, but hide some away in option bonuses, which I feel would be very beneficial for contract negotiations.

Quote

Jackson told ESPN's Dianna Russini that Baltimore was willing to put around $160-180 million guaranteed on the table.

Chris Mortensen and Adam Schefter of ESPN first reported the 2019 MVP declined a five-year, $250 million-plus extension that included $133 million in guarantees.

https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/10048663-lamar-jackson-says-rejected-ravens-contract-offer-included-160m-180m-guaranteed.amp.html

I’d be curious as to whether QBs consider $46m the new baseline for salary considering 2022 or if Lamar might be willing to go off of the Mahomes and Allen baseline of 43-45m if he’s provided guarantees that are record breaking, along with the second highest contract total. If so that could still keep him in the top 

7 years
45.14 APY (beats out Mahomes for #5)
$315m total (2nd highest)
$235m guaranteed (highest)
$150m fully guaranteed at signing
$75m signing bonus (highest)

Year1- $15m bonus, $15m salary = $30m cap
Year2- $15m bonus, $30m salary = $45m cap
Year3- $15m bonus, $30m salary = $45m cap
- Both years 2&3 could be option years that provide addition bonuses based off of picking up years 6&7 of the contract.
- Which considering all three years are guaranteed would be sort of happenstance. Which could convert the deal into more reasonable cap hits such as…

Year2- $15m signing bonus, $9m option bonus #1, $16m salary = $40m cap hit
Year3- $15m signing bonus, $9m option#1, $8m option#2, $10m salary = $42m cap hit

Once years 6&7 are activated by the Ravens then years 4&5 salaries become guaranteed for Lamar to pay his remaining $34m in guarantees.

Year4- $15m signing bonus, $9m OB1, $8m OB2, $15m salary = $47m cap hit
Year5- $15m signing bonus, $9m OB1, $8m OB2, $19m salary = $51m cap hit

Year6- $9m OB1, $8m OB2, $35m salary = $52m cap hit
Year7- $8m OB2, $45m salary = $53m cap hit

By the time Year 6 and 7 come around a $53m cap hit might be the new $40m salary. So while it sounds hefty, structuring the deal this way could allow us to give Lamar the guarantees, feel out his play for the next few seasons to ensure that he “earns” his option bonuses and remaining guarantees, while for Lamar, once he does that he can ensure that he’s setup for the future. What’s more similar to Flacco, if need be the Ravens could always restructure or extend Lamar in later years to lighten the cap burden if he’s playing well into his age 30-31 seasons as a passing threat. Flacco never truly reached his APY IIRC and the same could be true for Lamar on this deal when factoring in future extensions.

[AngusMcFife]

IMO the only way we can sign Lamar to worthwhile contract is if we let him shop himself to the league (on the precondition that the team will be willing to give up ~3 1sts), and Lamar finds out that other teams aren't willing to pay him what he thinks he is worth. 

I still think a 5 year contract with $133 million guaranteed at signing, $180 in total guarantees, and $250 million total is about right. 

If other teams want to break the bank for him and we can get good compensation, I'd move him. That's the risk of shopping him,  but it's the only way I see it resolving without the Ravens getting taken to the cleaners. 

[RavensTillIDie]

In a worst case scenario of having to trade Lamar, what would you guys think of this draft involving a trade with the Lions?

[AngusMcFife]

2 minutes ago, RavensTillIDie said:

In a worst case scenario of having to trade Lamar, what would you guys think of this draft involving a trade with the Lions?

I don't see the Lions trading for Lamar because Goff played great in their system last year, so it would be odd to switch their scheme up for Lamar when their offense was already very good. 

Also if Lamar were traded to the Lions, we'd probably get Goff back in the deal. But I am dubious they would do it. 

[RavensTillIDie]

Just now, AngusMcFife said:

I don't see the Lions trading for Lamar because Goff played great in their system last year, so it would be odd to switch their scheme up for Lamar when their offense was already very good. 

Also if Lamar were traded to the Lions, we'd probably get Goff back in the deal. But I am dubious they would do it. 

Goff did admittedly play well last year, but in the grand scheme of things, his best season is still a fraction of Lamar's potential, especially in a more dynamic passing game. Would think given where they finished last year and the makeup of their roster, they may be willing to make the push for Lamar to "put them over the top" into contender territory.

[AngusMcFife]

2 minutes ago, RavensTillIDie said:

Goff did admittedly play well last year, but in the grand scheme of things, his best season is still a fraction of Lamar's potential, especially in a more dynamic passing game. Would think given where they finished last year and the makeup of their roster, they may be willing to make the push for Lamar to "put them over the top" into contender territory.

It's possible, don't get me wrong. I still think Atlanta is by far the most sensible destination. 

[Xmad]

8 hours ago, AngusMcFife said:

IMO the only way we can sign Lamar to worthwhile contract is if we let him shop himself to the league (on the precondition that the team will be willing to give up ~3 1sts), and Lamar finds out that other teams aren't willing to pay him what he thinks he is worth. 

I still think a 5 year contract with $133 million guaranteed at signing, $180 in total guarantees, and $250 million total is about right. 

If other teams want to break the bank for him and we can get good compensation, I'd move him. That's the risk of shopping him,  but it's the only way I see it resolving without the Ravens getting taken to the cleaners. 

Non exclusive tag is the only way that's happening and even then I don't think the ravens do that simply because they need the leverage.

Diamondbull's offer makes the most sense and even then, what do we get if we shop Lamar a couple picks and hopes we land a franchise QB, in 2023 we roll with Tyler Huntley/Insert vet here and go to QB purgatory for the next 1-10 years? Not worth wasting the current roster on. 

Pay Lamar what he's worth (Market setting QB contract whether that's guarenteed money or APY with a contract structure beneficial to the ravens)

[AngusMcFife]

1 hour ago, Xmad said:

Non exclusive tag is the only way that's happening and even then I don't think the ravens do that simply because they need the leverage.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but if the Ravens use the exclusive franchise tag, they can still shop Lamar provided other teams agree to the parameters of the compensation (three 1s, or two 1s and a player, etc.). 

I wouldn't recommend the non-exclusive tag because the compensation seems light, especially if a team has a pick later in the 1st round. 

[DreamKid]

Does anyone believe an actual negotiation is taking place? Cause I don't.

Lamar likely has no dissenting or grounded voice/counsel in his life. If his position is that of wanting a fully guaranteed deal, which is what the indication is, then it's an either/or situation. Either Biscotti is willing to give him the deal or we're forced to trade him. That simple. The three years of regression don't matter. The two season ending injuries and his tanked trade value don't matter. Is Lamar's mom, DeMaurice Smith, or Kodak Black going to go to Lamar and have him rethink things or approach the situation differently..... F*ck no. 

Lamar himself doesn't actually care about the Ravens being the only club who believed in him, he doesn't care about the city, and tbh in the end I don't think a ring means all that much to him either. Lamar is like 99% of all the other professional athletes on the planet, he only cares about the money- which is a perfectly understandable position. We were spoiled with having a guy like Ray Lewis be the face of our franchise for so long, and it probably gave us unrealistic expectations as to how a player in that position should interact/deal with the club. 

IMO Lamar was probably closer to Ray when he first arrived("They're going to get a Super Bowl out of me, believe that"), but became jaded rather quickly. He's repeatedly gotten a taste of just how hard it is to win a Super Bowl with his limited playoff success. He was QB1 when the Ravens became one of the most injured teams in NFL history. He stood by as one of his best friends and one of our best weapons requested a trade(Hollywood Brown). His own play has regressed. And now he's finishing his 2nd straight season on the sidelines injured. Dude went from being viewed as the next Brady with his winning ways, to fans and some analysts questioning if he's lying about an injury to preserve his shot at a max deal- that's quite the journey. 

I think Lamar would be perfectly fine with us getting terrible value for him, being traded to a team like Atlanta or Houston, never going to another playoff game again, and retiring at 31 or 32...... so long as he gets that fully guaranteed max deal. Which again, makes him like 99% of the other players in the league. 

BTW I say all this as someone who supported Lamar pre draft, believes he's a Top 5-10 QB, thinks he would've played against the Bengals if he could, and hopes we resign him. I'm just trying to roll out some more sober analysis. This isn't a complex back and forth between a player, his agent, and the GM. By all appearances it's just a yes or no demand from a player to an owner. Which makes the situation really annoying as the club and player likely already know which way it's going to go. We're the only party in the dark.

I don't care about Lamar Jackson or Steve Biscotti's money, all I care about is the club winning games and ultimately another Super Bowl. So I hope the situation is resolved quickly and in a way beneficial to those goals.

To put it in Keanu Reeves terms, I hope the situation ends up much more Matrix-ey for us than Knock Knock-ey. 

[Xmad]

9 hours ago, AngusMcFife said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but if the Ravens use the exclusive franchise tag, they can still shop Lamar provided other teams agree to the parameters of the compensation (three 1s, or two 1s and a player, etc.). 

I wouldn't recommend the non-exclusive tag because the compensation seems light, especially if a team has a pick later in the 1st round. 

There are ways to do it, but there are hurdles as well.

If a player is tagged with a franchise tag, that player is still technically a free agent until they sign the offer (the “franchise tender”). Prior to that, they don’t have a valid contract with the original team (henceforth: “Team A”), so you can’t trade a player who doesn’t actually work for you. So start with the fact that unless the player SIGNS the franchise offer, the answer is a flat “no” because there’s no valid contract. That’s the player’s leverage in all of this.

What Team A does have is the RIGHTS to the player — they do exert some control over his ability to play for anyone else (“Team B”). There are three different cases:

• Exclusive franchise tender (almost always used on QBs): the player can ONLY sign or sit out. No right to go elsewhere.
• Non-exclusive franchise tender: the player can negotiate and sign with Team B, but by virtue of making the franchise offer, Team A gets two #1 picks from the new team, driving up the cost of acquiring the player. This price USUALLY scares off any interest; I can’t remember the last time someone actually paid the price.
• Transition tag: works similarly in terms of the tender offer and the right to match the offer, but with no draft-pick compensation. It’s rarely used because if you’re (Team A) gonna go through this process at all, you want to get some picks back.

It’s important to understand that in all three cases, the tender offer is the average of the top players at the same position, so the trade-off for controlling that player’s movement is you have to pay him like a star for that one year. And it’s guaranteed money.

4 hours ago, DreamKid said:

Does anyone believe an actual negotiation is taking place? Cause I don't.

Lamar likely has no dissenting or grounded voice/counsel in his life. If his position is that of wanting a fully guaranteed deal, which is what the indication is, then it's an either/or situation. Either Biscotti is willing to give him the deal or we're forced to trade him. That simple. The three years of regression don't matter. The two season ending injuries and his tanked trade value don't matter. Is Lamar's mom, DeMaurice Smith, or Kodak Black going to go to Lamar and have him rethink things or approach the situation differently..... F*ck no. 

Lamar himself doesn't actually care about the Ravens being the only club who believed in him, he doesn't care about the city, and tbh in the end I don't think a ring means all that much to him either. Lamar is like 99% of all the other professional athletes on the planet, he only cares about the money- which is a perfectly understandable position. We were spoiled with having a guy like Ray Lewis be the face of our franchise for so long, and it probably gave us unrealistic expectations as to how a player in that position should interact/deal with the club. 

IMO Lamar was probably closer to Ray when he first arrived("They're going to get a Super Bowl out of me, believe that"), but became jaded rather quickly. He's repeatedly gotten a taste of just how hard it is to win a Super Bowl with his limited playoff success. He was QB1 when the Ravens became one of the most injured teams in NFL history. He stood by as one of his best friends and one of our best weapons requested a trade(Hollywood Brown). His own play has regressed. And now he's finishing his 2nd straight season on the sidelines injured. Dude went from being viewed as the next Brady with his winning ways, to fans and some analysts questioning if he's lying about an injury to preserve his shot at a max deal- that's quite the journey. 

I think Lamar would be perfectly fine with us getting terrible value for him, being traded to a team like Atlanta or Houston, never going to another playoff game again, and retiring at 31 or 32...... so long as he gets that fully guaranteed max deal. Which again, makes him like 99% of the other players in the league. 

BTW I say all this as someone who supported Lamar pre draft, believes he's a Top 5-10 QB, thinks he would've played against the Bengals if he could, and hopes we resign him. I'm just trying to roll out some more sober analysis. This isn't a complex back and forth between a player, his agent, and the GM. By all appearances it's just a yes or no demand from a player to an owner. Which makes the situation really annoying as the club and player likely already know which way it's going to go. We're the only party in the dark.

I don't care about Lamar Jackson or Steve Biscotti's money, all I care about is the club winning games and ultimately another Super Bowl. So I hope the situation is resolved quickly and in a way beneficial to those goals.

To put it in Keanu Reeves terms, I hope the situation ends up much more Matrix-ey for us than Knock Knock-ey. 

I think there are legitimate negotiations going on since Lamar now has nothing else to focus on but that and rehab, all the bull **** aside Lamar wants to get paid and win a championship like all NFL players, he's just doing it on his own terms. What those are, only Lamar and the ravens know.

[diamondbull424]

9 hours ago, DreamKid said:

Does anyone believe an actual negotiation is taking place? Cause I don't.

Lamar likely has no dissenting or grounded voice/counsel in his life. If his position is that of wanting a fully guaranteed deal, which is what the indication is, then it's an either/or situation. Either Biscotti is willing to give him the deal or we're forced to trade him. That simple. The three years of regression don't matter. The two season ending injuries and his tanked trade value don't matter. Is Lamar's mom, DeMaurice Smith, or Kodak Black going to go to Lamar and have him rethink things or approach the situation differently..... F*ck no. 

Lamar himself doesn't actually care about the Ravens being the only club who believed in him, he doesn't care about the city, and tbh in the end I don't think a ring means all that much to him either. Lamar is like 99% of all the other professional athletes on the planet, he only cares about the money- which is a perfectly understandable position. We were spoiled with having a guy like Ray Lewis be the face of our franchise for so long, and it probably gave us unrealistic expectations as to how a player in that position should interact/deal with the club. 

IMO Lamar was probably closer to Ray when he first arrived("They're going to get a Super Bowl out of me, believe that"), but became jaded rather quickly. He's repeatedly gotten a taste of just how hard it is to win a Super Bowl with his limited playoff success. He was QB1 when the Ravens became one of the most injured teams in NFL history. He stood by as one of his best friends and one of our best weapons requested a trade(Hollywood Brown). His own play has regressed. And now he's finishing his 2nd straight season on the sidelines injured. Dude went from being viewed as the next Brady with his winning ways, to fans and some analysts questioning if he's lying about an injury to preserve his shot at a max deal- that's quite the journey. 

I think Lamar would be perfectly fine with us getting terrible value for him, being traded to a team like Atlanta or Houston, never going to another playoff game again, and retiring at 31 or 32...... so long as he gets that fully guaranteed max deal. Which again, makes him like 99% of the other players in the league. 

BTW I say all this as someone who supported Lamar pre draft, believes he's a Top 5-10 QB, thinks he would've played against the Bengals if he could, and hopes we resign him. I'm just trying to roll out some more sober analysis. This isn't a complex back and forth between a player, his agent, and the GM. By all appearances it's just a yes or no demand from a player to an owner. Which makes the situation really annoying as the club and player likely already know which way it's going to go. We're the only party in the dark.

I don't care about Lamar Jackson or Steve Biscotti's money, all I care about is the club winning games and ultimately another Super Bowl. So I hope the situation is resolved quickly and in a way beneficial to those goals.

To put it in Keanu Reeves terms, I hope the situation ends up much more Matrix-ey for us than Knock Knock-ey. 

Yes, I do.

1) Remember that Lamar mentioned the Ravens were offering guarantees in the 160-180 range. That tells me there were negotiations. It tells me perhaps they started at 160 with a specific offer and then moved up to the 180 range with another specific offer on the table.

2) Remember that Ronnie Stanley WITH an agent took 1.5 years to get his deal negotiated. Lamar’s negotiations have taken place for less than that time frame. So this isn’t something completely out of the realm of happening.

3) Are negotiations happening right now in all likelihood? I say yes and no.

EDC specifically mentioned that the team will discuss their negotiation strategies regarding Lamar and the roster construction when they head down to Jupiter, FL.

He mentioned he hoped to get a deal done before then, however I’m sure Steve has conveyed a number last year and that’s what EDC is working off of; however per new conversations and per new roster construction I would imagine new strategies might emerge from the groupthink.

Lastly I think part of Lamar’s leverage with the Offensive Coordinator thing is that he HASN’T signed a deal. So if by “negotiating” we’re considering influencing active team methodologies then I think yes.

As otherwise we’ve seen it before where an athlete signs and people (fans/media) basically take the “shut up and play ball” approach. We saw it with Deshaun Watson before his SA allegations where he was pissed about the Nuk trade and wanted to be more involved in future roster decisions and many basically said “you signed the deal and now you want to complain?”

So it only makes sense that for Lamar, before he signs the deal, he can weaponize his current position to “force” the Ravens to bring in an OC that he agrees will benefit his development as a passer and the development of our offensive passing attack. Now it doesn’t mean the front office and coaches have to be beholden to Lamar’s wishes exactly, but it does give Lamar some weight over the direction of the offense.

So why would it make sense for Lamar to sign a deal BEFORE we’ve resolved the OC decision? I wouldn’t anticipate getting some answer on the Lamar contract situation until after the Florida meeting and after the OC hiring. That’s when I think negotiations will once again begin in earnest.

 

4) Beyond that I do think Lamar will be willing to negotiate some. However I think all players want to reset the market in SOME capacity. Lamar knows he’s not likely going to get the 10 year deal like Mahomes. So he’s never going to set the contract record. And the Ravens aren’t historically giving deals that break the APY record if they can help it. So ultimately that leaves Lamar with the contract guarantees record. Also the signing bonus record would also be something he can reach for as well.

So I don’t think it would be fair for the Ravens to expect an MVP winning QB and a top 5-10 option at the position to not break some sort of positional negotiation record. Because if that’s what they’re asking then THEY are the ones who are expecting something unrealistic and not Lamar.

So either adjust and break the APY record over a short period of time (not cap and roster construction friendly) or just commit to Lamar into his younger 30s.

The real question would be if Lamar expects fully guaranteed AND the APY, that would be something else entirely. But if he’s willing to go for $43-45m APY on a mostly or fully guaranteed deal, when you consider how the negotiations have ALWAYS happened for a position, that’s the expectation for a top 5-10 player and it would be hurting the market for Lamar to sign for something that is less. Because teams will tell other players agents, “well Lamar signed for less than market breaking and he was a unanimous MVP, what has Herbert done?”

[Ray Reed]

9 hours ago, DreamKid said:

 I'm just trying to roll out some more sober analysis.

Which is entirely needed on the situation, and I'm with you. But unfortunately over the past year and a half or so it feels like this place has slowly morphed from a Ravens forum into a Lamar forum, and I'm finding it more and more difficult to have good faith conversations about this player on this site.

Typically even the smallest sort of criticism of the guy is met with either harsh backlash or is explained away through a bunch of mental gymnastics as to why his performance declining either a. isn't his fault or b. actually doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things.