What Should We Do With Daron Payne?

[MKnight82]

What should the plan be with Daron Payne?  Washington's front office obviously believed he was too inconsistent leading up to this year to offer him a long term extension, and with us drafting Mathis in the 2nd round last year its obvious we were bringing him in to be Payne's long term replacement. But several things have changed since last offseason.  The biggest difference is that Payne, mostly known as a run stuffing block occupier along the Dline exploded this year for 11.5 sacks. The second big change is that Mathis, the presumed long term replacement, barely played a snap for us due to injury. We also snagged a surprising rotational DT in John Ridgeway who played well for us in that role (although he injured himself in the season finale, hopefully he will be ready for Week 1 next year). I think all of us know all of this already but I just wanted to summarize so we were on the same page. 

So what are our options? We could offer him a long term extension, which I'm guessing is going to be in the neighborhood of Jon Allen's contract, 4 years $72,000,000 with a cap hit around $21.5 mil when we start seriously paying him. That is going to have our two starting DTs accounting for approximately 19% of our total cap space based on estimates for 2023 total cap (we could structure his 2023 cap hit to be significantly lower in Year 1, but we have to pay it eventually and even if the cap goes up you're probably talking about them still taking up about 15% of the total cap in 2024 and beyond). Waiting behind this are the potential extensions for Sweat and Young which will make this practically impossible to retain them both if we keep Payne. Although I would argue at this point Payne has shown more talent than Sweat, and despite Young's upside Payne has proven more than him as well on the field. 

Another option would be to tag him without an extension.  The only thing this would do would be to allow us more cap flexibility in the future but he would likely walk next offseason for nothing but a 3rd round comp pick for us (this is obviously one of the worst things we could do). 

An absolutely idiotic option would be to do nothing and let him walk in FA.  I actually think their plan last offseason for Payne was to do exactly this, they believed his play had been too inconsistent to demand a strong return in a trade so they would just recoup a comp pick for him like they did with Scherff.  Well his play this season has changed all of that, so this option should be off the table now. 

The final option is to franchise tag him and trade him.  This decision is likely heavily impacted by whether Payne wants to stay with us long term, and what compensation we could receive for him in a trade. I would imagine if we offer Payne a big money extension he would just accept it as it would be the smart financial move. For trade compensation, I think the best comparable would be the Deforest Buckner trade a few years ago, that saw the Colts send the 49ers the #14 overall pick in the draft for him. We also saw several teams trade first round picks last year for star players that needed extensions. A good guess would be the Lions at pick #18, they're coming off a surprising season, like to build the trenches and could use a lot of help on defense. Seems like a good fit to me. The 49ers then took their new #14 pick and immediately drafted another DT, but our investment in Mathis last year I think would make that unnecessary. We'd probably do something like take an Olineman and CB with our two firsts, which could really help our roster. Then you could either roll with Allen/Mathis/Ridgeway and add a 4th DT later in the draft, or there are some solid FA options to fill that spot.  

I understand both arguments.  Resigning Payne is the conservative move, just retain the proven talent regardless of the complications is causes. The more aggressive move is to reallocate his cap space by trading him for a first round pick. I'm actually leaning towards the tag and trade model but I'm curious what the rest of the forum thinks. 

Edited January 25, 2023 by MKnight82

[RSkinGM]

Last time I'm gonna beat this horse. I don't trust players that "breakout" in their contract year . I'd tag and trade even if it's only a 3. A 3 this year is better than a 3 next year .

[turtle28]

The answer is obviously tag & trade him now considering he’s coming off an 11.5 sack season. 
 

Last year when I said we should trade him I envisioned us getting back like a 2nd and a 4th or 5th. Now, coming off 11.5 sacks, I’d have to think we get a 1st & a mind round pick. He’ll only be 26 next year which also helps in trade talks.

It really sucks Ron, Marty, Martin & Rob Rogers didn’t get this deal done last off-season. Like usual, stupid move by the organization.

As it stands right now he’s got to be slated to cost more than Jon Allen’s 4 year, $72 million deal with $35.6 million in guarantees, an avg of $18 million a year and unless he’s restructured Jon Allen will cost $21 million over the next 2 years & $23 million in 2025.

I love DaRon Payne, but so just can’t see putting $145-160 million into your starting DT position.

Taghing Jim and not trading his flat out dumb. It’s as dumb as it was to not trade Kirk & Scherff as we tagged them for two years only to lose them for 3rd round comps when we could’ve gotten multiple picks for each including the 2nd overall pick in the 2017 NFL draft from the 49ers, but Dan wouldn’t trade Kirk to Kyle Shanahan.

Ridiculousness.

I know these are some crazy thoughts, but if we get a new owner by April, he may want to make a splash for his first season as our owner to get butts in the seats, so I could see us packing Payne with next years 1st & some other picks to send to the Bears for the #1 overall pick so we can take our QB of the future or, if Aaron Rodgers really does coke available and agrees to be traded here, I could see the Packers asking for Payne, our 1st this year, next year & other picks for Rodgers.

I’d do either trade. There’s no doubt in my mind that if we had Aaron Rodgers with this receiving corps last year & moving forward that we're right there with the Eagles & 49ers as the best teams in the NFC and could've been playing this weekend or could be playing NFL Conference Championship weekend next year.

The only other places I could see Rodgers going are Tampa, Las Vegas or maybe to the NY Jets. I think Tampa & Las Vegas are our two biggest competitors in a bidding war for Rodgers - if the new owner or Ron decides he wants to do that - bc Aaron has got to want to play with DeVante again & if he goes to Tampa he knows if they just get a few upgrades on the OL that they’re a Super Bowl contender again, especially with the weapons they have.

Edited January 25, 2023 by turtle28

[aceinthehouse]

2 hours ago, RSkinGM said:

Last time I'm gonna beat this horse. I don't trust players that "breakout" in their contract year . I'd tag and trade even if it's only a 3. A 3 this year is better than a 3 next year .

Totally get what your puttin' down. Signing him long-term term gives me Albert Haynesworth nightmares.

I really like Payne, but I'm afraid the outcome is like we've seen so many times with players in general. Get that huge payday, after blowing up in a contract year? Then coasting the rest of the way with half-*** effort.

Kind of have to hold our breath with this situation. I do know, he's an excellent player when he's getting after it. Having him & Allen would be a nice DT tandem, while we try to build a championship team.

Besides the new ownership purchase?

This is the biggest unknown at the moment. Is Mathis good enough, to make us forget Payne? Is Ridgeway?

I don't know...

But if offered a 1st for Payne? It will be hard to pass on...

[taylor made]

Just pay him.  I know it's scary and the grass is always greener but I'm sick of losing drafted players like Brandon Scherff, Preston Smith and dare should I say Kirk Cousins because the team is so cheap or has the grass is always greener mentally.  No one is giving up a first round pick for Daron Payne.

[lavar703]

5 hours ago, RSkinGM said:

Last time I'm gonna beat this horse. I don't trust players that "breakout" in their contract year . I'd tag and trade even if it's only a 3. A 3 this year is better than a 3 next year .

He's 25-years old. He's not even in his prime yet and you're worried that he had his breakout in his contract year? To put things into context, Phidarian Mathis is 24-years old. We drafted a very young player who had a ton of raw tools and they finally came together. This isn't some late bloomer. 

[lavar703]

I'm paying him. This team can ill afford to let the good talent it actually has walk. This regime has not proven capable of replacing them.

[offbyone]

26 minutes ago, lavar703 said:

I'm paying him. This team can ill afford to let the good talent it actually has walk. This regime has not proven capable of replacing them.

You put it clearly.  Elite players don't come around every day.  And he is  young.  If we get Payne for a 5 year deal, he will still be 29 years old by the time it is over.  

Rivera already outsmarted himself twice on the payne situation.  First, by not even trying to offer him a reasonable contract.  Secondly, Rivera thought he could easy peasy replace him with a highly drafted Mathis and guess what, Mathis didn't even play.  

IMO, I would rather extend Payne than Sweat.  Sweat is a good player, but nothing special.  And imagine how Sweat would have looked without Allen and Payne.  My guess is below average.  And if we look at consistency, last year when the entire defense looked like crap, Payne still played solid.  Payne has never looked less than good.  I also think people need to take note of Payne's availability.   

[MKnight82]

41 minutes ago, offbyone said:

IMO, I would rather extend Payne than Sweat.

The problem with this is we have no replacement on the roster for Sweat and quality edge rushers rarely hit FA.  So we'd have to invest yet another high draft pick to replace him.  Theoretically we already have Payne's replacement on the roster, plus we could get draft pick compensation for trading Payne (more than we could for Sweat). 

[IHatesnyder]

I would like to pay him but I already know we will franchise tag him. 
 

we better not trade him and if we do it’s for a first and mid pick. 

 

[offbyone]

14 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

The problem with this is we have no replacement on the roster for Sweat and quality edge rushers rarely hit FA.  So we'd have to invest yet another high draft pick to replace him.  Theoretically we already have Payne's replacement on the roster, plus we could get draft pick compensation for trading Payne (more than we could for Sweat). 

Payne is an elite player.  Mathis is not projected to be an elite player.  I like his makeup, but expecting him to be a top DT in the nfl when he hasn't even played is crazy talk.  He wasn't special in college, what suddenly makes him a special nfl player?

I agree with you about how hard it is to find a top DE, but Sweat isn't a top DE.  The flip side is if we keep Sweat, we will pay him likely as much if not more than we will have to pay Payne and we will do it for a good player not a great player.  Yes, finding a Bosa is super hard, finding a Sweat in the draft, not nearly as hard.  

Also, isn't Young going to be better than Sweat?  If so, keep the two elite players and trade Sweat while he has some value. 

Frankly, I really don't understand what people see in Sweat.  He has been in the league 4 seasons and he has not blossomed into a special player.  He is not a game changing DE.  He has never even taken over a single game.

 

 

[ARTMONK HOF]

I would resign him. Not a head case, no trouble off the field, seems like a good dude. 
 

[MKnight82]

35 minutes ago, offbyone said:

Payne is an elite player.  Mathis is not projected to be an elite player.  I like his makeup, but expecting him to be a top DT in the nfl when he hasn't even played is crazy talk.  He wasn't special in college, what suddenly makes him a special nfl player?

I agree with you about how hard it is to find a top DE, but Sweat isn't a top DE.  The flip side is if we keep Sweat, we will pay him likely as much if not more than we will have to pay Payne and we will do it for a good player not a great player.  Yes, finding a Bosa is super hard, finding a Sweat in the draft, not nearly as hard.  

Also, isn't Young going to be better than Sweat?  If so, keep the two elite players and trade Sweat while he has some value. 

Frankly, I really don't understand what people see in Sweat.  He has been in the league 4 seasons and he has not blossomed into a special player.  He is not a game changing DE.  He has never even taken over a single game.

 

 

I'm not disagreeing with anything you're saying but I think you have to make apples to apples comparison. Basically this is the decision to make: 

Payne + 3rd round comp pick (when Sweat leaves) - the cost of a 1st or 2nd round pick to replace Sweat

vs. 

Mathis + 1st this year (maybe something like a new starting CB) + retaining Sweat.

 

Honestly I like the looks of the second option a lot more. 

[turtle28]

58 minutes ago, offbyone said:

Payne is an elite player.  Mathis is not projected to be an elite player.  I like his makeup, but expecting him to be a top DT in the nfl when he hasn't even played is crazy talk.  He wasn't special in college, what suddenly makes him a special nfl player?

I agree with you about how hard it is to find a top DE, but Sweat isn't a top DE.  The flip side is if we keep Sweat, we will pay him likely as much if not more than we will have to pay Payne and we will do it for a good player not a great player.  Yes, finding a Bosa is super hard, finding a Sweat in the draft, not nearly as hard.  

Also, isn't Young going to be better than Sweat?  If so, keep the two elite players and trade Sweat while he has some value. 

Frankly, I really don't understand what people see in Sweat.  He has been in the league 4 seasons and he has not blossomed into a special player.  He is not a game changing DE.  He has never even taken over a single game.

Mathis had 9 sacks as a senior at Alabama, he must have bene doing something right. I don’t think he has the upside of Payne & it’s hard to say any young DT will come in and be the tactician that Jon Allen was as a young player & he’s even better now too.

Sweat may not get the sacks - those come more when Chase plays & attention is drawn away from Sweat - but Sweat was amongst the league leaders in QB pressures & he had 28 QB hits which was tied for 4th in the league. With Chase back next year hopefully some of those “Almosts” turn into sacks for Sweat. 
 

I also disagree that Sweat hasn’t taken over games. In 2020 at the Cowboys he dominated & had that unit return for a TD & last year vs the Titans he was unblockable.

Edited January 26, 2023 by turtle28

[offbyone]

2 hours ago, MKnight82 said:

I'm not disagreeing with anything you're saying but I think you have to make apples to apples comparison. Basically this is the decision to make: 

Payne + 3rd round comp pick (when Sweat leaves) - the cost of a 1st or 2nd round pick to replace Sweat

vs. 

Mathis + 1st this year (maybe something like a new starting CB) + retaining Sweat.

 

Honestly I like the looks of the second option a lot more. 

First of all Mathis is here either way.

But the big thing I am not following is you are saying we can Trade Payne for a 1st rounder but we would be unable to trade Sweat at all?  If no one else wants him, why should we want him over an elite player?

I think it would be similar value.  You yourself said DE are worth more than DT.  So a good Sweat, who some people think might be great, as a DE is probably worth similar to an elite DT who has been franchise tagged.  Franchise Tagging never helps trade value.  

The whole point of drafting elite players is to get them on a second contract.  What is the point of the draft if you find an elite player and toss him.