2023 Player movement rumors

[sryan66611]

1 hour ago, brownie man said:

I'm starting to think we'll never know how Trey Lance would actually look like in a Kyle Shannahan offense. That's pretty crazy 

I think the only possible way this happens is if the 49ers win the superbowl.

[adamq]

1 hour ago, sryan66611 said:

I think the only possible way this happens is if the 49ers win the superbowl.

I agree, and even if that happens Lance will probably still be a Niner for at least one more year

[Forge]

7 hours ago, brownie man said:

I'm starting to think we'll never know how Trey Lance would actually look like in a Kyle Shannahan offense. That's pretty crazy 

Oh, I think that's more likely than not at this point. 

He'll still have a shot because I doubt that anyone is going to offer what it would take to trade him so he'll be on the roster next year, but almost a lock that Purdy is the starter next year. Lance is basically waiting for an injury or waiting for the bottom to fall out on Purdy's play, which honestly is going to be hard to do with the weapons around him. 

Everything about Lance is pure hypothetical and Purdy is actually putting play on tape, in the playoffs, etc. Going to be difficult for Lance's career to gain any real sort of momentum given how little he has played even going back to high school. 

[MWil23]

6 minutes ago, Forge said:

Oh, I think that's more likely than not at this point. 

He'll still have a shot because I doubt that anyone is going to offer what it would take to trade him so he'll be on the roster next year, but almost a lock that Purdy is the starter next year. Lance is basically waiting for an injury or waiting for the bottom to fall out on Purdy's play, which honestly is going to be hard to do with the weapons around him. 

Everything about Lance is pure hypothetical and Purdy is actually putting play on tape, in the playoffs, etc. Going to be difficult for Lance's career to gain any real sort of momentum given how little he has played even going back to high school. 

His cryptic social media posts almost scream like he's gauging his value/odds of getting a trade at this point too. Just a super weird situation. He played almost no college ball, he then sat a year after the 49ers traded 3 1sts to move up to get him, then he got hurt...and now he's in the limbo land of not being worth what they paid to get him, while being worth more than whatever they'll recoup/not recoup in a trade, while probably sitting behind Purdy (kind of a Jordan Love situation only worse here) and not really adding to his trade value.

I think SF if they can get 50 cents on the dollar for what they traded for him would probably be wise to move on, count their losses, and count their Purdy blessings...assuming Brock continues his ascent. 

[ET80]

4 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

His cryptic social media posts almost scream like he's gauging his value/odds of getting a trade at this point too. Just a super weird situation. He played almost no college ball, he then sat a year after the 49ers traded 3 1sts to move up to get him, then he got hurt...and now he's in the limbo land of not being worth what they paid to get him, while being worth more than whatever they'll recoup/not recoup in a trade, while probably sitting behind Purdy (kind of a Jordan Love situation only worse here) and not really adding to his trade value.

I think SF if they can get 50 cents on the dollar for what they traded for him would probably be wise to move on, count their losses, and count their Purdy blessings...assuming Brock continues his ascent. 

If I’m a team in need of a QB (which I am) I’m evaluating if I can send a few 2nd/3rds and pick up Lance. If that’s not enough for Lance… see if it’s enough for Purdy.

They’ll never recoup the picks that it took to land Lance - but if you find your franchise QB with a Mr. Irrelevant pick, that’s nearly a wash IMO, whatever picks you get from moving Lance is just aloe vera that should help with any sort of burn.

[Forge]

1 minute ago, MWil23 said:

His cryptic social media posts almost scream like he's gauging his value/odds of getting a trade at this point too. Just a super weird situation. He played almost no college ball, he then sat a year after the 49ers traded 3 1sts to move up to get him, then he got hurt...and now he's in the limbo land of not being worth what they paid to get him, while being worth more than whatever they'll recoup/not recoup in a trade, while probably sitting behind Purdy (kind of a Jordan Love situation only worse here) and not really adding to his trade value.

I think SF if they can get 50 cents on the dollar for what they traded for him would probably be wise to move on, count their losses, and count their Purdy blessings...assuming Brock continues his ascent. 

If they could get 50 cents on the dollar, I'd drive him to the airport myself at this point. But I don't think anyone is giving anything remotely close to a first round pick to move him and he still costs more to trade than to keep on the roster, so they have 0 reason to move him without proper incentive. It's still a 10 million dollar QB room between he and Purdy.

Really unfortunate for Lance. Seems like a good kid, but stuff like that happens. I think Brock is probably 90% of what he'll ever be, and I doubt that I'll be all that interested in giving him a second contract, but unfortunately for Lance, those questions on Brock don't have to be addressed for at least 2 more years after this one which runs out the clock on Lance anyway. 

I'd love to see Lance have an honest shot at winning the job, but if I'm also being honest.... I kind of don't know why a QB competition in June / July / August during camp and preseason would mean more than what Purdy is showing in live games right now. The niners aren't going to want to put itself in a spot where they can move through Lance's inexperience troubles during real games.  Not with this roster. So it just kind of is what it is, unfortunately for Lance. 

I would look for him to get moved prior to 2024 for a day 2 pick of some sort. 

[BetterCallSaul]

No reason to think Brock can't continue to have success, to be honest. The Shanny system is extremely QB-friendly and they've got the weapons in place to keep him chugging along.

Trey Lance is going to have to look awesome in order to stay with SF. I think this will be Brock's team moving forward given how well he manages the game and fits within the offense. Lance will net the 49ers pennies on the dollar in a trade if they wait until next season to trade him. Almost have to commit to Purdy in the off-season if they are hoping to get back any sort of value. I don't think they'll trade him away, but then barring him beating Purdy out, it's gonna cost them a lot of draft value.

It's a tough, but good situation to be in if you're SF. You think you have two good QB's for the future, but there's no guarantee you will even have 1.

[MWil23]

2 minutes ago, ET80 said:

If I’m a team in need of a QB (which I am) I’m evaluating if I can send a few 2nd/3rds and pick up Lance. If that’s not enough for Lance… see if it’s enough for Purdy.

They’ll never recoup the picks that it took to land Lance - but if you find your franchise QB with a Mr. Irrelevant pick, that’s nearly a wash IMO, whatever picks you get from moving Lance is just aloe vera that should help with any sort of burn.

!00% agreed. I think that smart franchises essentially say, "we got our guy with those picks" even if it's not the one they drafted...which is how I would have felt as a Washington GM with Cousins, albeit he's still limited but a solid starting QB in the RGIII/Cousins situation.

I think smart GM's also look at "lost value" and better to recoup some rather than none. Lantz still has some value. He's a high pick and great athlete with some toolsy skills on a rookie contract. Would an NFL team seriously rather draft a virtually unknown and unmolded guy like Richardson over having Lantz who sat under great coaching in a solid scheme? I seriously doubt it, but I guess perhaps.

Teams like Carolina, the Saints, the Jets, the Titans, and even the Giants should be all over this IMO.

[MWil23]

4 minutes ago, Forge said:

If they could get 50 cents on the dollar, I'd drive him to the airport myself at this point. But I don't think anyone is giving anything remotely close to a first round pick to move him and he still costs more to trade than to keep on the roster, so they have 0 reason to move him without proper incentive. It's still a 10 million dollar QB room between he and Purdy.

Really unfortunate for Lance. Seems like a good kid, but stuff like that happens. I think Brock is probably 90% of what he'll ever be, and I doubt that I'll be all that interested in giving him a second contract, but unfortunately for Lance, those questions on Brock don't have to be addressed for at least 2 more years after this one which runs out the clock on Lance anyway. 

I'd love to see Lance have an honest shot at winning the job, but if I'm also being honest.... I kind of don't know why a QB competition in June / July / August during camp and preseason would mean more than what Purdy is showing in live games right now. The niners aren't going to want to put itself in a spot where they can move through Lance's inexperience troubles during real games.  Not with this roster. So it just kind of is what it is, unfortunately for Lance. 

I would look for him to get moved prior to 2024 for a day 2 pick of some sort. 

Perhaps 33 cents on the dollar...which I think a 1st or a couple of 2s could legitimately happen. He's still super young and on a rookie deal...perhaps not, but I think some teams might be desperate...like the Jets when they don't get Aaron Rodgers, or the Titans who I think could legitimately use his athletic ability in their downhill running system with that defense and coaching staff.

JMHO

[Dash]

17 hours ago, EvilenFroggen said:

I would bite half of my own butt off for FA Derek Carr. Bring it.

Chew it down and swallow and he'll get Adams to join through a trade for a fifth rounder.

[Trojan]

50 minutes ago, ET80 said:

If I’m a team in need of a QB (which I am) I’m evaluating if I can send a few 2nd/3rds and pick up Lance. If that’s not enough for Lance… see if it’s enough for Purdy.

They’ll never recoup the picks that it took to land Lance - but if you find your franchise QB with a Mr. Irrelevant pick, that’s nearly a wash IMO, whatever picks you get from moving Lance is just aloe vera that should help with any sort of burn.

As a fan of a team in need of a QB... and holding picks 2, 12, 33, 65 and 73. Would you trade 33 + 65 + conditional 2nd + 3rd next year if he does that 70%+ snaps sort of thing Wentz's trade had? Would let Houston take Anderson or Carter, or like the Bears listen to trade packages down. Would you prefer that to whoever is your second favorite QB prospect in this class? Would you be alright with that even if your favorite QB prospect in the class was there at #2?

Edited January 27, 2023 by Trojan

[ET80]

3 minutes ago, Trojan said:

Would you trade 33 + 65 + conditional 2nd + 3rd next year if he does that 70%+ snaps sort of thing Wentz's trade had?

I’d personally change up the conditional stuff - something like if he plays between 60% to 70% it’s the 3rd only and if he plays anything above 70% it’s the 2nd - but yeah, this is a framework to land a deal is somewhere in there. I’ll probably ask to remove 65 as well, and put in a day 3 pick in ‘23 and ‘24 instead - pick 65 is incredibly necessary to rebuild the Texans, that has to turn into a starter and/or a high performing rotational piece (ideally - it’s a starting C). If 65 is a requirement - I’d reluctantly move it (maybe a pick swap, give me a ‘23 day 3 pick in return) but then I’m using 1.12 to recoup that loss by moving down to the 20s and getting those picks recouped (which is probably happening either way - Lance or no Lance).

Lance is an unknown commodity, but his upside would be worth the risk. Using pick 1.2 and 1.12 to build up the defense and using pick 33 (plus dropping from 65 to 100+) to find a QBOTF with top 5 pick upside is appealing - but we’d have to alter conditions a bit.

6 minutes ago, Trojan said:

Would let Houston take Anderson or Carter, or like the Bears listen to trade packages down.

I would say that Anderson with the pick is pretty much a foregone conclusion and Carter if the Bears go with Anderson. A trade down would be very nice as well, but it would have to be someone other than the Colts; You cannot let them land the QB they want, force them to deal with whoever is left. Ultimately, 1.2 is the cash you spend, 1.12 is the chip you drop at the roulette table and move around.

11 minutes ago, Trojan said:

Would you prefer that to whoever is your second favorite QB prospect in this class? Would you be alright with that even if your favorite QB prospect in the class was there at #2?

Gun to me head - I prefer keeping it simple, draft your guy. But if Lance can be had at the right price (quantity of picks is just as important as quality of picks in Houston’s case) you have to investigate.

[Trojan]

14 minutes ago, ET80 said:

I’d personally change up the conditional stuff - something like if he plays between 60% to 70% it’s the 3rd only and if he plays anything above 70% it’s the 2nd - but yeah, this is a framework to land a deal is somewhere in there. I’ll probably ask to remove 65 as well, and put in a day 3 pick in ‘23 and ‘24 instead - pick 65 is incredibly necessary to rebuild the Texans, that has to turn into a starter and/or a high performing rotational piece (ideally - it’s a starting C). If 65 is a requirement - I’d reluctantly move it (maybe a pick swap, give me a ‘23 day 3 pick in return) but then I’m using 1.12 to recoup that loss by moving down to the 20s and getting those picks recouped (which is probably happening either way - Lance or no Lance).

Lance is an unknown commodity, but his upside would be worth the risk. Using pick 1.2 and 1.12 to build up the defense and using pick 33 (plus dropping from 65 to 100+) to find a QBOTF with top 5 pick upside is appealing - but we’d have to alter conditions a bit.

I would say that Anderson with the pick is pretty much a foregone conclusion and Carter if the Bears go with Anderson. A trade down would be very nice as well, but it would have to be someone other than the Colts; You cannot let them land the QB they want, force them to deal with whoever is left. Ultimately, 1.2 is the cash you spend, 1.12 is the chip you drop at the roulette table and move around.

Gun to me head - I prefer keeping it simple, draft your guy. But if Lance can be had at the right price (quantity of picks is just as important as quality of picks in Houston’s case) you have to investigate.

That's interesting to me, because if you guys hire Demeco he obviously has been around Lance and would make it less of an unknown than for others. I think there is possibility there if Ryans is the guy. Pick #2 could land him his potential Nick Bosa, and getting Lance would "answer" the biggest question. I couldn't see the point in Ryans leaving SF for a talent deprived Houston, but if he loves Anderson/Carter like Bosa/Quinnen and he believes in Lance and the 49ers are willing to hook their former staff up while recouping lost cost. I could see it.

[ET80]

51 minutes ago, Trojan said:

That's interesting to me, because if you guys hire Demeco he obviously has been around Lance and would make it less of an unknown than for others. I think there is possibility there if Ryans is the guy. Pick #2 could land him his potential Nick Bosa, and getting Lance would "answer" the biggest question. I couldn't see the point in Ryans leaving SF for a talent deprived Houston, but if he loves Anderson/Carter like Bosa/Quinnen and he believes in Lance and the 49ers are willing to hook their former staff up while recouping lost cost. I could see it.

I do agree that Ryans to Houston makes this a very feasible option - maybe even a likely option. It would come down to compensation for Lance, honestly.

Edit: Another person likely to join DeMeco if he heads to Houston is Klay Kubiak, 49ers assistant QB Coach (Klay grew up in Houston while dad was the HC of the Texans - he was the HC of Strake Jesuit HS here in the area before he started his NFL tenure). Klay has firsthand experience with Lance, so that’s a transition that works for both.

Yeah, there are some wheels to this.

[49ersfan]

2 hours ago, MWil23 said:

Perhaps 33 cents on the dollar...which I think a 1st or a couple of 2s could legitimately happen. He's still super young and on a rookie deal...perhaps not, but I think some teams might be desperate...like the Jets when they don't get Aaron Rodgers, or the Titans who I think could legitimately use his athletic ability in their downhill running system with that defense and coaching staff.

JMHO

Titans new GM also came from the 49ers. Carthon has some familiarity with Lance