EvilenFroggen Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 10 hours ago, Dash said: Chew it down and swallow and he'll get Adams to join through a trade for a fifth rounder. I’ve already got my sriracha ready. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 On 1/27/2023 at 10:42 AM, Trojan said: As a fan of a team in need of a QB... and holding picks 2, 12, 33, 65 and 73. Would you trade 33 + 65 + conditional 2nd + 3rd next year if he does that 70%+ snaps sort of thing Wentz's trade had? Would let Houston take Anderson or Carter, or like the Bears listen to trade packages down. Would you prefer that to whoever is your second favorite QB prospect in this class? Would you be alright with that even if your favorite QB prospect in the class was there at #2? Has Trey Lance done anything to suggest he's got any real trade value? He's got 102 career passes, and he hasn't exactly looked good doing so. That's a hefty price to pay for someone who hasn't really shown anything, and the 49ers appear ready to move on from. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 Just now, CWood21 said: Has Trey Lance done anything to suggest he's got any real trade value? He's got 102 career passes, and he hasn't exactly looked good doing so. That's a hefty price to pay for someone who hasn't really shown anything, and the 49ers appear ready to move on from. It's really just based on your predraft evaluation of him at this point. You're paying for the potential. If you weren't a fan predraft, there's no reason to be a fan now. If you were a fan predraft, there's no reason you still can't be as the sample is simply too small to draw and major conclusions on. It's not like guys with limited samples haven't been traded for decent returns (though nothing like 2 seconds and 2 thirds...but a second this year + third next year that could become a second under the right circumstances wouldn't be the craziest thing) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 24 minutes ago, CWood21 said: Has Trey Lance done anything to suggest he's got any real trade value? He's got 102 career passes, and he hasn't exactly looked good doing so. That's a hefty price to pay for someone who hasn't really shown anything, and the 49ers appear ready to move on from. We’d have to identify WHY San Francisco is moving on - this isn’t a Josh Rosen situation, the team found a franchise QB with the last pick in the draft, the one place you don’t expect to find such a player. You can’t really play both, and you want some sort of return on your investment in Lance. You get that part, I’d say - SF isn’t moving on because they don’t like Lance, they’re moving on because he’s redundant to their plans. A team trading for him is banking on his pre-draft evaluation along with familiarity with the system he’s going to be in - one thing us people don’t see is the work in the film room and in position meetings. If you have a guy who is still only 22 who has that experience and understands a system, you can take an educated guess he’ll continue that work with the same sort of system - and if that predraft eval turns out well and he lives up to expectations, you just uncovered a massive bit of luck. If he doesn’t, you’re not tied to him as you would traditionally be with a guy drafted this high. Sure, it’s unpleasant to give up 33 - but the upside outweighs the risk. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 14 minutes ago, Forge said: It's really just based on your predraft evaluation of him at this point. You're paying for the potential. If you weren't a fan predraft, there's no reason to be a fan now. If you were a fan predraft, there's no reason you still can't be as the sample is simply too small to draw and major conclusions on. It's not like guys with limited samples haven't been traded for decent returns (though nothing like 2 seconds and 2 thirds...but a second this year + third next year that could become a second under the right circumstances wouldn't be the craziest thing) It's a tough situation . Lance was a raw prospect and that is probably still the case. A new team means a new system and 2 years used on the rookie contract. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 1 minute ago, ET80 said: We’d have to identify WHY San Francisco is moving on - this isn’t a Josh Rosen situation, the team found a franchise QB with the last pick in the draft, the one place you don’t expect to find such a player. A team trading for him is banking on his pre-draft evaluation along with familiarity with the system he’s going to be in - one thing us people don’t see is the work in the film room and in position meetings. If you have a guy who is still only 22 who has that experience and understands a system, you can take an educated guess he’ll continue that work with the same sort of system - and if that predraft eval turns out well and he lives up to expectations, you just uncovered a massive bit of luck. If he doesn’t, you’re not tied to him as you would traditionally be with a guy drafted this high. Sure, it’s unpleasant to give up 33 - but the upside outweighs the risk. What teams are running a SF / Shanahan offense that need a QB? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Just now, squire12 said: What teams are running a SF / Shanahan offense that need a QB? Ideally - wherever DeMeco Ryans lands. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Just now, ET80 said: Ideally - wherever DeMeco Ryans lands. That assumes Ryan's is hiring someone from SF staff to be OC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 4 minutes ago, squire12 said: It's a tough situation . Lance was a raw prospect and that is probably still the case. A new team means a new system and 2 years used on the rookie contract. Yeah, which is why he's not going to move, I think. The niners have 0 incentive to move him. I think that if a team offered a second + conditional second / third, that is a completely reasonable offer for him, objectively speaking. It's also an offer I don't think the 49ers seriously consider and I don't think that they are necessarily in the wrong by not considering it. There are definitely offers I would consider, but I get not being in a hurry to move him. The thing with Purdy is that I don't think I would want to pay him on a second contract when you have to start cutting other spots....but as a QB making 800K you can field a top 5 offense because of the weapons. I don't care that he's not overly good independent of what's around him right now because for the next 3 years, he's going to have that around him. What Purdy is on his own is a problem for 3 years from now Forge, tbh. It certainly doesn't help Lance's odds of moving when you consider that Shanny has had to use multiple Quarterbacks in 5 of his 6 seasons as a head coach LOL. And in 4 of his 6 he's had to use at least 3 (though in 2017 that was mostly due to the ineffectiveness of Hoyer / Beathard). Dude is probably going to keep Lance, sign a vet and have a vet type qb on the practice squad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 16 minutes ago, ET80 said: We’d have to identify WHY San Francisco is moving on - this isn’t a Josh Rosen situation, the team found a franchise QB with the last pick in the draft, the one place you don’t expect to find such a player. You can’t really play both, and you want some sort of return on your investment in Lance. You get that part, I’d say - SF isn’t moving on because they don’t like Lance, they’re moving on because he’s redundant to their plans. A team trading for him is banking on his pre-draft evaluation along with familiarity with the system he’s going to be in - one thing us people don’t see is the work in the film room and in position meetings. If you have a guy who is still only 22 who has that experience and understands a system, you can take an educated guess he’ll continue that work with the same sort of system - and if that predraft eval turns out well and he lives up to expectations, you just uncovered a massive bit of luck. If he doesn’t, you’re not tied to him as you would traditionally be with a guy drafted this high. Sure, it’s unpleasant to give up 33 - but the upside outweighs the risk. This is precisely like the Josh Rosen situation. The team (Arizona in that case, San Francisco in this case) identified someone else as their franchise QB. If you can get a SRP plus a conditional pick in 2024, that's good value. I don't think any team is giving up a second and third this year plus a conditional SRP next year for someone who hasn't lived up to their pre-draft hype. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 17 minutes ago, squire12 said: What teams are running a SF / Shanahan offense that need a QB? This also a bit of a red flag for Trey Lance. The 49ers' offense has had varying levels of success with Jimmy Garoppolo, Brock Purdy, CJ Beathard, Nick Mullens, etc. Trey Lance was the only one who really "struggled" in that offense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trojan Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 46 minutes ago, CWood21 said: Has Trey Lance done anything to suggest he's got any real trade value? He's got 102 career passes, and he hasn't exactly looked good doing so. That's a hefty price to pay for someone who hasn't really shown anything, and the 49ers appear ready to move on from. If Trey Lance has done anything to suggest value, I would assume the DC of his current team, assuming he takes a HC job elsewhere, would be one of the few outside the organization to know that value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 20 minutes ago, squire12 said: That assumes Ryan's is hiring someone from SF staff to be OC. I’d argue this is likely, if not certain. I mean, who else would he bring in? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 1 minute ago, Trojan said: If Trey Lance has done anything to suggest value, I would assume the DC of his current team, assuming he takes a HC job elsewhere, would be one of the few outside the organization to know that value. And it's also possible that it could be the exact opposite. DeMeco Ryans could easily believe that what he saw isn't going to lead him to success in the NFL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 6 minutes ago, CWood21 said: This is precisely like the Josh Rosen situation. The team (Arizona in that case, San Francisco in this case) identified someone else as their franchise QB. But the massive difference is that Kyler Murray was at Oklahoma, and Rosen was incredibly bad (along with reports of being a bad locker room guy). The Cardinals chose to use an asset to replace Rosen - whereas Purdy is already on the roster, and demonstrated better to this point. This is nowhere near the same situation. It’s not like if Trey Lance or Jimmy Garoppolo didn’t get injured we’d be talking about it - there was a very specific chain of events that led to this discussion, one that Lance really didn’t have any influence on. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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