2023 Player movement rumors

[CWood21]

6 minutes ago, ET80 said:

But the massive difference is that Kyler Murray was at Oklahoma, and Rosen was incredibly bad (along with reports of being a bad locker room guy). The Cardinals chose to use an asset to replace Rosen - whereas Purdy is already on the roster, and demonstrated better to this point.

This is nowhere near the same situation. It’s not like if Trey Lance or Jimmy Garoppolo  didn’t get injured we’d be talking about it - there was a very specific chain of events that led to this discussion, one that Lance really didn’t have any influence on.

I'm not saying they're identical situations, but there's enough parallels to that situation to make a comparison.  Trey Lance is now 2 years into his rookie contract, and he's thrown a grand total of 102 career passes.  And it's not like Trey Lance looked good in the limited opportunities.  As a starting QB, he's averaging 55.4% completion percentage, 7.7 YPA, and a TD/INT ratio of 2:3.  The fact that we're talking about Brock Purdy being the starting QB over Trey Lance next year is a byproduct of Brock Purdy being effective.  This is trying to take previous draft status and trying to use it inflate QB values.  Ironically speaking, this is the same spield that Packers' fans heard last year when talking about Jordan Love, only Jordan Love was worth a bag of peanuts.

[Forge]

26 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

This also a bit of a red flag for Trey Lance.  The 49ers' offense has had varying levels of success with Jimmy Garoppolo, Brock Purdy, CJ Beathard, Nick Mullens, etc.  Trey Lance was the only one who really "struggled" in that offense.

Trey Lance's career Any/A is 6.83...that would have been higher than Joe Burrow this year and good for top ten this year and 12th last year. And that's because this year his Any/a was less than 5 because his one full game was in a monsoon. Last year it was nearly 8. His EPA per dropback was meh, but you would expect that to get better.  His DVOA last year was the second highest out of QBs who threw less than 200 passes. His pressure to sack rate is significantly better than Purdy and Jimmy. 

He "struggled" because he does it differently than the guys we are used to pulling the trigger for the 49ers offense. Its massively inefficient play to play. 

But the sample is frankly not large enough to mean anything. 

 

[CWood21]

5 minutes ago, Forge said:

Trey Lance's career Any/A is 6.83...that would have been higher than Joe Burrow this year and good for top ten this year and 12th last year. And that's because this year his Any/a was less than 5 because his one full game was in a monsoon. Last year it was nearly 8. His EPA per dropback was meh, but you would expect that to get better.  His DVOA last year was the second highest out of QBs who threw less than 200 passes. 

He "struggled" because he does it differently than the guys we are used to pulling the trigger for the 49ers offense. Its massively inefficient. 

*Small sample size concern incoming*

And if you look at the games in which Trey Lance started, he's got a career ANY/A of 6.03 which would rank 19th in the NFL last year.  Personally, I think that gives a better idea of what he is since teams were game planning for him rather than those situation with special packages and play calls being chosen to help him succeed. Odds are he's probably somewhere in between the two of them.  Being inefficient in a QB-friendly offense isn't a good argument for Trey Lance.

[Acgott]

41 minutes ago, ET80 said:

I’d argue this is likely, if not certain. I mean, who else would he bring in?

You interview. I was curious, so I did a quick search of recent hires. I couldn’t find easy ties, but everyone has connections. On the niners you have Anthony Lynn with major experience. Looks like everyone else has been in their role for 1 year on the niners. I would think that Ryans would want to team with a veteran offensive coach, especially if developing a new QB.

Other recent hires:

Daboll brought in Kafka

Eberflus brought in Getsy

Dan Campbell brought in Anthony Lynn

Staley brought in Joe Lombardi

Sirianni brought in Steichen

 

[Forge]

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

*Small sample size concern incoming*

And if you look at the games in which Trey Lance started, he's got a career ANY/A of 6.03 which would rank 19th in the NFL last year.  Personally, I think that gives a better idea of what he is since teams were game planning for him rather than those situation with special packages and play calls being chosen to help him succeed. Odds are he's probably somewhere in between the two of them.  Being inefficient in a QB-friendly offense isn't a good argument for Trey Lance.

And if I remove a game where he played in a monsoon, his ANY/A in his starts is 8.31.  

Not like he's going to be playing in that type of weather often, right? And we want to have a better idea of what a normal game would look like. 

Also, with regards to the efficiency- his ADOT is vastly different than the others. That could be a different offensive philosophy from Shanny when Lance plays, could be Lance's style, could be that he's never played with CMC and has only played with George Kittle once.  His depth of target last year was over 9. Brock and JImmy typically hover in the 6's. Overall, his yards per attempt last year was still 8.48 in his two starts while Purdy's is 8.1. 

So are we sure that Lance is struggling? Or is it just uglier? 

I have no idea what Lance is...but truthfully, there's nothing he has done that should make anyone concerned when it's contextualized, but there's also nothing that should put someone all in or anything. There's just not enough neutral data to mean anything. 

(*Edit - I was doing some of those calculations by hand, so anyone feel free to correct if one is inaccurate)

[squire12]

1 hour ago, ET80 said:

I’d argue this is likely, if not certain. I mean, who else would he bring in?

So that pool includes.... Brian Griese (QB), Chris Foerster (OL), Anthony Lynn (RB), Leonard Hankerson (WR), Brian Fleury (TE).

 

I'm not sure who Ryan's might want to bring g in as OC.  Typically it's someone he has some association with and would think is a qualified mind to install an offense and be a playcaller.  

[ET80]

1 minute ago, squire12 said:

So that pool includes.... Brian Griese (QB), Chris Foerster (OL), Anthony Lynn (RB), Leonard Hankerson (WR), Brian Fleury (TE).

 

I'm not sure who Ryan's might want to bring g in as OC.  Typically it's someone he has some association with and would think is a qualified mind to install an offense and be a playcaller.  

I’m actually thinking Klay Kubiak is also in the discussion. He’s the assistant QB coach, has ties to DeMeco via Gary and has done some good work if you think he’s got a say on Brock Purdy…

At the least, there are going to be people with familiarity with Lance.

[Forge]

Ultimately, I don't think it's going to matter. I think Houston ends up with Stroud or Levis if they don't just end up with young anyway. 

 

[ET80]

10 minutes ago, Forge said:

Ultimately, I don't think it's going to matter. I think Houston ends up with Stroud or Levis if they don't just end up with young anyway. 

 

I would agree ultimately - it fits more now than it did when Gannon or Streichen were options, but it's still not that likely.

[TitanSlim]

In this thread I’ve learned that Leonard Hankerson is the WR coach for SF. I remember him having a decent run with RG3 in Washington. 

[NYRaider]

4 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Has Trey Lance done anything to suggest he's got any real trade value?  He's got 102 career passes, and he hasn't exactly looked good doing so.  That's a hefty price to pay for someone who hasn't really shown anything, and the 49ers appear ready to move on from.

How do the 49ers look ready to move on from him? They have him under team control for the next 2/3 years on his rookie deal. They've dealt with more injuries at QB than probably any team in the league, so I'd imagine having Purdy/Lance both on cheap deals for the next couple of seasons would be ideal for them.

[Nabbs4u]

Lance is no different the Love when it comes to trade value IMO. Neither has shown enough to warrant high draft pick compensations.

SF almost reminds me of Washington when the drafted RGIII and Cousins. Clearly had a plan, spent way to much capital acquiring thier FQB only to potentially move on the the 2nd choice who showed promise due to injuries to the other. 

 

[NYRaider]

35 minutes ago, Nabbs4u said:

Lance is no different the Love when it comes to trade value IMO. Neither has shown enough to warrant high draft pick compensations.

SF almost reminds me of Washington when the drafted RGIII and Cousins. Clearly had a plan, spent way to much capital acquiring thier FQB only to potentially move on the the 2nd choice who showed promise due to injuries to the other. 

I think I'd probably value Love higher at this point to be honest. Lance has hardly played in the last three seasons and was a project from a small school to begin with. Plus he's coming off of a serious lower leg injury and mobile QB's have had issues with longevity. 

[Forge]

52 minutes ago, Nabbs4u said:

Lance is no different the Love when it comes to trade value IMO. Neither has shown enough to warrant high draft pick compensations.

I don't know that you're trading for either based on what they have shown thus far. You're largely only trading for them on the basis for what they could be.  Those type of trades don't happen often, but they do every few years. They usually involve a second round pick and maybe a little something extra

[Thomas5737]

The only recent one that I can think of is:

 

I may have misunderstood what this thread was supposed to be about.