What's Aaron Rodgers trade value?

[Blue]

1 hour ago, Pugger said:

A lot of Packers fans are unhappy we didn't trade him away last offseason but I can't think of another NFL GM ever trading away his reigning MVP.  With that ridiculous salary and cap hit along with his decline in play I don't imagine many GMs clamoring for his services now.

Watch the play of Zach Wilson, Sam Darnold, or Matt Ryan in 2022 if your imagination is that poor.

[StatKing]

8 hours ago, Dr LBC said:

Honest question, who is there among his friends that are up for payment?  Jones?

Jones is a cap casualty, Tonyan, Lazard, Cobb and Lewis are all free agents. Rodgers literally named them as guys he wants to keep around.

My gut tells me he just wants to play his last few years in GB with his best buddies. He's stated multiple times over the years how much legacy means to him and how he wants to retire a Packer. That's the only thing he's been consistent about the last 3-4 years.

[lavar703]

14 hours ago, Blue said:

You're massively underestimating how desperate teams are for even competent QB play if you think Rodgers is going for less than 2 1sts, even at his age.

Nobody is giving up two firsts for a 39-year old QB who doesn't know if he wants to play or retire every year. 

[jetjuice]

22 hours ago, CWood21 said:

I'd put them more as a darkhorse than a favorite, but I think there could be real motivation by Tennessee to look to improve upon Ryan Tannehill.  They could trade him and recoup some picks saving nearly $18M.  By releasing Taylor Lewan and Zach Cunningham, they'd be legal by being under the salary cap.  Ryan Tannehill trade/release clears an additional $18M, which would be enough to swallow Rodgers' $15.8M this year.  And he has a reasonable $32.5M next year as well.

I actually agree, and on the flip side I see Atlanta as a logical trade partner for Tennessee. Opposite conferences, familiarity with Arthur Smith, run-first offense - it makes sense.

[jetjuice]

11 hours ago, iknowcool said:

I must be trippin', because this seems like such a clearly bad deal for the Jets, even with those conditions.

He's since walked back this idea, I think he knew he was reaching one 1st round pick too far.

1st & conditional 3rd would be my offer. I'll throw them Denzel Mims too.

EDIT - didn't see they were sending us back 15. 

Edited January 27, 2023 by jetjuice

[Blue]

10 minutes ago, lavar703 said:

Nobody is giving up two firsts for a 39-year old QB who doesn't know if he wants to play or retire every year. 

 

27 minutes ago, Blue said:

Watch the play of Zach Wilson, Sam Darnold, or Matt Ryan in 2022 if your imagination is that poor.

 

[jetjuice]

27 minutes ago, lavar703 said:

Nobody is giving up two firsts for a 39-year old QB who doesn't know if he wants to play or retire every year. 

Nah, I think Blue is right.

Maybe it won't be two firsts exactly but it'll be close.

[Packerraymond]

21 hours ago, titans0021 said:

@Danielmostly touched on it, but certainly the Titans could fit him in under the cap with the obvious releases.

But the question obviously becomes, then what? What are you trying to accomplish at that point with a soon-to-be 40-year-old QB, very limited financial resources, arguably the worst OL in football and a bad group of receivers? There’s a chance you’d still have the 11th pick in the draft to work with, but that’s unlikely. 

Last offseason, I thought there was logic to it. Coming off the one seed, lost in the playoffs due to a Tannehill and Downing implosion and AJ Brown still on the roster, Rodgers could very well have been seen as the piece to push us to the top.

Now, you’re coming off a 7-10 season where you lost seven straight with holes littered all over the roster. Just not the time to be taking on an aging QB coming off the worst year of his career. 

How much does having a new GM who didn't get to pick his HC factor in? Are there many instances where that lasts long-term? I remember Gute's presser about how much he respected McCarthy and how he was the coach long-term and then the next year we had a bad record and Mac was gone. I know Vrabel is a good coach, but can he afford a rebuild year?? Will the new GM use that as an excuse to pick his own guy? Vrabel may push for something like this with a division that's largely wide open to push for a playoff spot. Especially with a generational talent at RB who probably has 1-2 years before the tread is off those tires. 

[lavar703]

36 minutes ago, Blue said:

 

 

I get what you're saying but I still don't agree. It doesn't mean I'm correct obviously just the feeling I get is he won't garner two first round picks. My guess is he goes for a conditional 2nd and 3rd with both having the ability to elevate to first and second round picks based on playoffs, MVP, Superbowl etc. Sending two first round picks for a 39-year old QB coming off a lackluster season (by his standards) and paying his massive contract just seems like a situation doomed to fail. 

[Blue]

1 minute ago, lavar703 said:

I get what you're saying but I still don't agree. It doesn't mean I'm correct obviously just the feeling I get is he won't garner two first round picks. My guess is he goes for a conditional 2nd and 3rd with both having the ability to elevate to first and second round picks based on playoffs, MVP, Superbowl etc. Sending two first round picks for a 39-year old QB coming off a lackluster season (by his standards) and paying his massive contract just seems like a situation doomed to fail. 

What I think we've seen a lot recently is teams willing to mortgage the future to leverage a win-now roster with no other avenues for improving the quarterback position. If Lamar Jackson stays put in Baltimore (not a guarantee at all in my opinion), what are teams like Carolina, Atlanta, New York Jets, Las Vegas, Tennessee, Indianapolis, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, and Washington going to do? Jimmy Garoppolo wasn't exactly a hot commodity last year, and now he's coming off yet another injury-marred season. Baker Mayfield in the same boat. Derek Carr is available but he's clearly not Aaron Rodgers.

Sure, not all of those are landing spots for Rodgers. Tennessee is likely out. Indy and Carolina are likely to draft QBs, but they might be competing for the same guy. Brady might end up in LV if he doesn't retire (again). But there really isn't another great option for win-now teams like Tampa, New Orleans, New York, or Washington. How many of those teams are going to find themselves in position to draft a top QB the next couple years anyways? And you know ownership would love to sell Aaron Rodgers jerseys at any of those places. Green Bay may not want to trade Rodgers within the NFC, but it does create more pressure on the Jets to at least be in the ballpark on an offer from any one of the other three.

[Forge]

11 hours ago, CWood21 said:

You mean a $15.2M cap hit?  That's a bargain and a half for a player of Rodgers' caliber.

Yes, but it's nearly 60 million in real cash (he only referenced salary)  

Unless the packers are paying some of that bonus, it's a consideration for some owners, I have no doubt. Paying 60 million in real cash + draft assets for possibly just a year of Aaron Rodgers won't matter to some, but may matter to others. 

[MWil23]

4 minutes ago, Blue said:

What I think we've seen a lot recently is teams willing to mortgage the future to leverage a win-now roster with no other avenues for improving the quarterback position. If Lamar Jackson stays put in Baltimore (not a guarantee at all in my opinion), what are teams like Carolina, Atlanta, New York Jets, Las Vegas, Tennessee, Indianapolis, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, and Washington going to do? Jimmy Garoppolo wasn't exactly a hot commodity last year, and now he's coming off yet another injury-marred season. Baker Mayfield in the same boat. Derek Carr is available but he's clearly not Aaron Rodgers.

Sure, not all of those are landing spots for Rodgers. Tennessee is likely out. Indy and Carolina are likely to draft QBs, but they might be competing for the same guy. Brady might end up in LV if he doesn't retire (again). But there really isn't another great option for win-now teams like Tampa, New Orleans, New York, or Washington. How many of those teams are going to find themselves in position to draft a top QB the next couple years anyways? And you know ownership would love to sell Aaron Rodgers jerseys at any of those places. Green Bay may not want to trade Rodgers within the NFC, but it does create more pressure on the Jets to at least be in the ballpark on an offer from any one of the other three.

Yep.

Those are all QB needy teams who are likely out of the lottery and in limbo. So, your options are to make a play for Trey Lance, Jordan Love (LOL), hope to buy yourself some time with a bridge guy like Carr, or else sign Jimmy G, who literally is having his value go down with every snap that Brock Purdy takes.

If I'm Green Bay, I quietly approach Rodgers about whether or not he wants to be here, and more or less nicely inform him I'm not signing a bunch of those dudes he really wants that are past their prime and/or low to mid tier. Sorry both TE, sorry Bahk, and sorry Cobb. I then gauge his interest on where he would like to go, if anywhere. If he doesn't want out, fine, move on. If he does, we work on a restructure and start talking about potential spots.

If I'm Carolina and Frank Reich, I'm making a play for Carr in a dome heavy/good weather assuming Rodgers doesn't want to go here. If I can get Rodgers, that's obviously a given and now I'm probably in the lead for being an instant divisional favorite. Carr gives you instant "competitiveness" and the ability to distribute to Moore, not really make catastrophic turnovers, and more or less bridge me for a year or two until I can get "my guy".

If I'm the Jets, I know as a GM and HC that it's now or I'm fired, so I do whatever it takes. Why would I care about future assets that I won't be around to use?

If I'm Tennessee, I'm actually calling about Trey Lance and utilizing his athleticism in a heavy run offense with a good defense.

If I'm Tampa Bay or New Orleans, I'm deciding whether or not to go all in on a rebuild...and likely not because the core roster has some good talent and with the right QB I can make one more legit run.

[CWood21]

1 hour ago, jetjuice said:

I actually agree, and on the flip side I see Atlanta as a logical trade partner for Tennessee. Opposite conferences, familiarity with Arthur Smith, run-first offense - it makes sense.

Atlanta feels like it's either Desmond Ridder or Lamar Jackson.  No reason for Atlanta to grab a purgatory QB.  They need to figure out if Desmond Ridder is their guy, and if he isn't they can pivot in 2024 and get either Caleb Williams or Drake Maye.

[CWood21]

45 minutes ago, Forge said:

Yes, but it's nearly 60 million in real cash (he only referenced salary)  

Unless the packers are paying some of that bonus, it's a consideration for some owners, I have no doubt. Paying 60 million in real cash + draft assets for possibly just a year of Aaron Rodgers won't matter to some, but may matter to others. 

Realistically speaking, how many NFL owners are going to find their QB and not be paying them $60M+ in real cash this year?  These are millionaires (if not billionaires).  Paying $60M in cash isn't going to be an issue.

[Forge]

1 minute ago, CWood21 said:

Realistically speaking, how many NFL owners are going to find their QB and not be paying them $60M+ in real cash this year?  These are millionaires (if not billionaires).  Paying $60M in cash isn't going to be an issue.

Probably most of them, to be honest. 

I don't think Derek Carr is getting 60 million up front. Jimmy isn't. Daniel Jones maybe gets that? Geno? But they probably aren't getting that if the ownership thinks they are only going to be there for a year.