Jump to content

The Niners have a great future regardless


Championshiporbust

Recommended Posts

On 2/2/2023 at 5:45 AM, biggie. said:

"If you have two quarterbacks, you don't have one."

Regardless, SF is stuck in a neutral. Purdy is bound to regress to the mean and we all know how I feel about Lance. Brady is no longer an option and there's no chance GB would trade Rodgers to them.

There is no evidence to suggest Purdy will regress. Had he been a first round pick none of these talking points are even happening. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, lavar703 said:

There is no evidence to suggest Purdy will regress. Had he been a first round pick none of these talking points are even happening. 

Based on what he put up in 6 games he would've been on pace for 4,450 yards (6th most) and 44 passing TD (most in the NFL) over a 17 game season. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Based on what he put up in 6 games he would've been on pace for 4,450 yards (6th most) and 44 passing TD (most in the NFL) over a 17 game season. 

Exactly, so I would say a 'regression' is inevitable, but as to what 'the mean' is I have no idea what the hell that actually would be.

4000 yards, 30 TDs, and 10 INTs? 4440/35/8? 3800/25/12? No one knows, but I think it would be foolish of SF not to make him the starter immediately if he is able to be healthy by TC. He didn't go out and throw 35+ times per game while out there but they averaged 32 ppg in his starts prior to getting his elbow hurt. Why the hell would SF think they are going to change the offensive philosophy and replicate that? If the 'mean' is putting up 27ppg then you count your blessings and keep letting him get theball out to his playmakers, and his cheap deal helps immensely in paying the talents around the team. Dude is a rookie, there can be 3 more years before his contract could potentially become a concern.

Run with it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Sugashane said:

Exactly, so I would say a 'regression' is inevitable, but as to what 'the mean' is I have no idea what the hell that actually would be.

4000 yards, 30 TDs, and 10 INTs? 4440/35/8? 3800/25/12? No one knows, but I think it would be foolish of SF not to make him the starter immediately if he is able to be healthy by TC. He didn't go out and throw 35+ times per game while out there but they averaged 32 ppg in his starts prior to getting his elbow hurt. Why the hell would SF think they are going to change the offensive philosophy and replicate that? If the 'mean' is putting up 27ppg then you count your blessings and keep letting him get theball out to his playmakers, and his cheap deal helps immensely in paying the talents around the team. Dude is a rookie, there can be 3 more years before his contract could potentially become a concern.

Run with it.

I like Purdy but I think it's safe to assume he will regress from elite level play to average level play. Teams have film on him now. But I agree that he's in a really good spot and based on what he showed this year he looks like a legit starter. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, NYRaider said:

I like Purdy but I think it's safe to assume he will regress from elite level play to average level play. Teams have film on him now. But I agree that he's in a really good spot and based on what he showed this year he looks like a legit starter. 

It doesn't take an NFL coordinator 8 games to figure out a young QB. They usually figure it out much quicker than that. Now I'm not saying he's going to be elite but there's just as much evidence that he will be as there's evidence that he won't. I mean, there's no real basis for saying he can't be this good because we have nothing that says the contrary. To me, he's a true mystery and while I myself have no clue what he is I think he's in the perfect situation to develop. I mean, you have people advocating starting Trey Lance over him with no real reason for doing so other than draft status. Its just a weird thing fans do I suppose. All of us do it really. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, lavar703 said:

It doesn't take an NFL coordinator 8 games to figure out a young QB. They usually figure it out much quicker than that. Now I'm not saying he's going to be elite but there's just as much evidence that he will be as there's evidence that he won't. I mean, there's no real basis for saying he can't be this good because we have nothing that says the contrary. To me, he's a true mystery and while I myself have no clue what he is I think he's in the perfect situation to develop. I mean, you have people advocating starting Trey Lance over him with no real reason for doing so other than draft status. Its just a weird thing fans do I suppose. All of us do it really. 

He did it in a limited sample size against the 24th, 13th, 25th, 7th, 26th, and 31st ranked scoring defenses in the NFL. Maybe Purdy is the outlier of all outliers, I personally don't think he's outproducing Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Patrick Mahomes over the course of a 17 game season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, NYRaider said:

I like Purdy but I think it's safe to assume he will regress from elite level play to average level play. Teams have film on him now. But I agree that he's in a really good spot and based on what he showed this year he looks like a legit starter. 

I agree he will regress from elite play, honestly I just think he will be at minimum average and think he will be able to be better than that for his career in Shanahan's system. Whether because he is good enough to be that guy or the system/coach/roster is so good it won't fail anytime soon. To me the big question that will need answered will be whether he would warrant the mega-deal a winning QB gets or if SF or Shanahan think they can replicate his production with another guy on a rookie deal - is it the system or the QB driving? They have years to do it, whereas my Bears handicapped Fields for two years and now have a much shorter time to judge him. And with a far inferior playcaller IMO.

Plus I'm admittedly a sucker for underdogs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I would expect some statistical regression in things like touchdown passes, but in truth I'm not sure what Purdy was going was all that unsustainable on the baseline. He's seriously  doing what Jimmy G did is all. 

Jimmy G actually still managed to have a higher QB DVOA and a higher EPA / play...and he suffered though that Denver game. Purdy had a worse int rate, a worse sack rate, a worse any/a. Purdy had a higher yards per attempt, but his ypa / a was still less than Jimmy's career average ypa / a with the 49ers. 

The only thing that was grossly out of line was Purdy's touchdown rate...which doesn't necessarily need to come down due solely to worse play. 

that's not say that being Jimmy is the easiest thing in the world...there's a reason guys like him stick around as starters. But it really balances the perspective when you change the thinking from "oh, purdy is playing at an elite level" to, "oh, Purdy is basically playing at a Jimmy G level in the SF offense" 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, Forge said:

I would expect some statistical regression in things like touchdown passes, but in truth I'm not sure what Purdy was going was all that unsustainable on the baseline. He's seriously  doing what Jimmy G did is all. 

Jimmy G actually still managed to have a higher QB DVOA and a higher EPA / play...and he suffered though that Denver game. Purdy had a worse int rate, a worse sack rate, a worse any/a. Purdy had a higher yards per attempt, but his ypa / a was still less than Jimmy's career average ypa / a with the 49ers. 

The only thing that was grossly out of line was Purdy's touchdown rate...which doesn't necessarily need to come down due solely to worse play. 

that's not say that being Jimmy is the easiest thing in the world...there's a reason guys like him stick around as starters. But it really balances the perspective when you change the thinking from "oh, purdy is playing at an elite level" to, "oh, Purdy is basically playing at a Jimmy G level in the SF offense" 

He also benefited from a charmin soft schedule down the stretch, lol. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Forge said:

Yes, that is what is being said. Don't be a clown or go take that crap to reddit where it belongs

I'm teasing you, lol. I think Purdy is good and can produce at a similar level to Jimmy. But I also think that we'll see some regression next season but who knows the 49ers are so stacked.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...