The Niners have a great future regardless

[Rockice_8]

Will be interesting to see if they can keep the talent level up with all of the high priced players they are paying and not having premium picks from the Lance deal.  The low salary QBs will help for a few more years but they really need to hope Purdy or Lance pan out long term.

Good news is Shanny's system is plug and play for QBs so as long as they have that talent in place they should be good enough to go far but winning it all will take some luck or better QB play to compete with the leagues best.

[Snotbubbles]

There's way too much turnover in professional sports to make any proclamation that any team will be good going forward.  Attrition through injury, free agency and guys just getting old and underperforming make it impossible to predict how a team will maneuver to overcome those hurdles.  Sometimes a GM can do it (see, the 2017 Eagles transforming their roster from the 2017 Champs to now) some can't (see, the 2016 Atlanta Falcons who have missed the playoffs for 4 straight years).   

 

[Forge]

5 hours ago, NYRaider said:

I'm teasing you, lol. I think Purdy is good and can produce at a similar level to Jimmy. But I also think that we'll see some regression next season but who knows the 49ers are so stacked.

They definitely won't average like 35 points a game or whatever they did with Purdy in the regular season. I had a previous post where I did some research and Purdy has nearly as many drives in his regular season starts that went 10 yards or less than Jimmy did in the entirety of 2019 lol. 

But I don't know that anything he did this year was unsustainable. If he was a second round pick (like Jimmy or Carr) and did what he did, I don't think anyone bats an eyelash, tbh. They basically look at what Kyle did with Jimmy and did with Mullens and they are like, "yeah, okay...sure..that makes sense".  I think this is almost all because he was "Mr Irrelevant". From an NFL perspective, I don't think that he did anything crazy. He really just replicated Jimmy. Like, this is kind of crazy: 

Jimmy career w/SF: 67.6%, 5% td rate, 2.6% INT rate, 8.3 YPA, 7.2 ANY/A, 6.7% sack rate, ADOT ranged between 6.5 - 7.8, pressure to sack rate about 22%, .225 epa/play, 51.3% success rate

Purdy in 2022: 67.1%, 7.6% TD rate, 2.4% INT rate, 8.1 YPA, 7.57 ANY / A, 6.1% sack rate, 6.6 ADOT, pressure to sack rate 18%, .196 epa/play, 49.5% success rate.

 

Now, maybe he's really not that good....but we never really consider JImmy all that good anyway. We consider him an okay QB who has the benefit of nice weapons and a great coach. I think Purdy can do that. 

I don't know that Purdy is good independent of his current situation. That's one of the reasons I'm not all in on him. I definitely don't think I would want to give him a second contract, which is where a lot of these guys and their success gets tripped up. Obviously, he can get better...but he could very easily already be 95% of his ceiling. But if you're going to have this type of guy, have him on his rookie deal. You can build a winner around that, I think. 

The one thing I would be very concerned about though is the physical abilities of Purdy being diminished because of this injury. That's a real concern

[TecmoSuperJoe]

4 hours ago, Rockice_8 said:

Will be interesting to see if they can keep the talent level up with all of the high priced players they are paying and not having premium picks from the Lance deal.  The low salary QBs will help for a few more years but they really need to hope Purdy or Lance pan out long term.

Good news is Shanny's system is plug and play for QBs so as long as they have that talent in place they should be good enough to go far but winning it all will take some luck or better QB play to compete with the leagues best.

49ers still need some talent at triggerman to go places even with the stacked cast. Garoppolo, Purdy, and hopefully Lance meet a certain threshold of competency. Other yahoos like Josh Johnson, Nick Mullens, Bryan Hoyer, or C.J. Beathard would still shackle the offense.

Edited February 3, 2023 by TecmoSuperJoe