CWood21 Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 Scenario ~Packers are currently a projected $16.3M over the cap, but also doesn't include the $3.9M needed to sign our current draft picks. ~Packers and Aaron Rodgers mutually agree to seek a new team for Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers gives Gute a list of 3-4 teams that he's willing to accept a trade to. ~Packers receive a 5th (MVS), 7th (Chandon Sullivan), and a 7th (Oren Burks) compensatory pick. Pre-March 1st With the Packers over the cap, the Packers would need to trade, restructure, or extend players in order to get under the cap. Packers restructure Jaire Alexander's roster bonus Cap Savings: +$9,390,000 Packers max restructure Aaron Jones Cap Savings: $10,890,000 Adjusted Cap Space: +$4,468,022 Nothing in here is crazy, and all seems likely to happen. Jaire Alexander's contract was structured very similar to Marshon Lattimore with a large roster bonus in Y2 that was almost certainly going to be restructured. The cap savings are import here as it's money that likely won't come as dead cap in the near future. As for Aaron Jones, with a $20M+ cap hit he won't be coming back in 2023 with that same kind of cap hit, so they restructure his contract and probably make 2023 his last year in a Green Bay uniform. Post-March 1st Trades Packers Receive: 6th Round Pick Texans Receive: S Darnell Savage 4th Round Pick Cap Savings: +$7,901,000 If the Packers weren't so pressed up against the salary cap, the Packers probably wouldn't be making this deal. But the salary cap savings here are way too important to justify having Savage on the roster for a nearly $8M cap hit. If he's willing to spread out that cap hit over multiple years, maybe they could bring him back but it's probably time to move on for both parties. For Houston (or another other team), they rent out their cap space on a young, but inconsistent player and upgrade a draft pick in the process. Jets Receive: QB Aaron Rodgers #15 Packers Receive: #13 '24 FRP (Conditional*) '25 FRP (Conditional**) * For the '24 FRP, the pick is conditional on either Aaron Rodgers playing in 70% of the offensive snaps OR the Jets make the playoffs, the Jets would send a FRP to Green Bay. If both of those tresholds aren't met, the Jets would send a SRP to Green Bay. If Rodgers doesn't play a single snap in 2023, that traded pick wouldn't be dealt and remains with New York. More on that in a minute. ** For the '25 FRP, the pick would be similar to that of the '24 pick but with less risk. The pick would convey as a FRP if Rodgers played in 70%+ of the offensive snaps AND the Jets made the Super Bowl, the Jets would send a FRP to Green Bay. If Rodgers plays in 50%+ of the offensive snaps and/or the Jets make the playoffs, the Jets would send a SRP to Green Bay. If Rodgers doesn't play for the Jets in 2024, the Jets wouldn't owe a pick. Any other scenario would result in New York sending a 3rd round pick to Green Bay. Cap Savings: -$8,690,000 As I mentioned, I think Rodgers will give Gute a list of 3-4 teams (my guess is San Francisco, NY Jets, Las Vegas, and Tennessee) he'd accept a trade to, and he'll threaten retirement if he feels that the teams giving up too many win-now players in the process. San Francisco seems like a non-starter for a number of reasons. That effectively leaves the three AFC teams. Las Vegas has Davante Adams, the NY Jets have the defense and WR weapons, and the Titans are a QB-away from being great. Unfortunately, I don't think the Raiders do the pick swap that the Jets are willing to do, instead of offering a few picks swaps in 2022 along with conditional future picks. Tennessee is a bit more more messy to get a deal done, and ultimately comes down to Las Vegas or New York. For New York, they get to keep a FRP to either help rebuild their OL or add another WR to the mix. For Green Bay, they most likely add a FRP in 2024 and a SRP in 2025. The risk for the Jets is pretty minimal in this deal. If Jordan Love struggles in 2023, the Packers can use their own FRP plus the projected Jets' FRP to move up in the 2024 draft. Adjusted Cap Space: $3,679,000 Extensions Kenny Clark (3 years, $60M, $22.5M signing bonus in new money) Cap Savings: +$9,335,000 Adjusted Cap Space: $19,464,022 Kenny Clark is a potential restructure candidate, but it seems far more likely that he's an extension candidate. A $20M AAV puts him in the top 3 of highest paid DTs. His current cash flow for the upcoming season is just over $16M, so he gets a small pay bump (~$6M) for agreeing to this deal. This deal ties him up through his age 32 season. Re-Signings TE Robert Tonyan (3 years, $18M, $3M signing bonus) Cap Savings: -$3,580,000 OT Yosh Njiman (2nd Round Tender) Cap Savings: -$4,308,000 LB Eric Wilson (2 years, $3.29M, $1M signing bonus) Cap Savings: -$1,580,000 CB/RS Keisean Nixon (2 years, $12M, $5.5M signing bonus) Cap Savings: -$4,312,5000 S Rudy Ford (3 years, $12M, $3M signing bonus) Cap Savings: -$3,000,000 S Adrian Amos (???) Cap Savings: $0 Adjusted Cap Space: $8,753,522 Nothing crazy here. The Packers re-sign Robert Tonyan to a low-risk deal that's effectively a 2 year deal. Yosh Njiman gets a SRP tender as Gute hopes he can find a team who is willing to give up their SRP for him. Eric Wilson was one of the best ST players in the league, so the Packers re-sign him to a modest deal. Keisean Nixon was the best return men in NFL, and gets paid similarly to Braxton Berrios. Rudy Ford is re-signed as a stopgap at the safety position. I think there's also a strong possibility that a new deal is struck with Adrian Amos before his contract voids, but doesn't affect how much money hits the salary cap. Free Agency QB Gardner Mishnew (2 years, $12M deal, $4M signing bonus) Cap Savings: -$4,500,000 Adjusted Cap Savings: $4,253,522 The Packers pay a premium for a high-end backup QB, but they get one in which they really don't have much risk involved with it being heavily backloaded. 2023 NFL Draft Round One (13th Overall) - Jaxon Smith-Njigba [WR; Ohio State] Originally, I wasn't planning on using a FRP on a WR but after thinking about it for a bit it would make sense in a post-Rodgers' era. The Packers are going to do everything in their power to make sure Jordan Love has the opportunity to succeed, and while we've seen glimpses of great things out of Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs it would make sense to secure the WR corps moving forward. JSN missed most of the 2022 season with an ankle injury, but if he would have stayed healthy you'd have to imagine he'd be the consensus #1 WR in the draft. Assuming he's shown he's fully recovered from his ankle injury, I fully expect him to be top 20 pick come April. I could see Green Bay targeting an OL like Peter Skoronski or Paris Johnson if they're available. I think EDGE could also be in play here, but I think we're going to see 3 EDGE go inside the top 8 and possibly more inside the top 12. Round Two (45th Overall) - Felix Anudike-Uzomah [EDGE; Kansas State] After going offense in the first round, the Packers go back to rebuilding their defense and this time grab another EDGE to help rebuild the pass rush core with an eye towards the future. FAU has been very productive in his career at Kansas State, and immediately slides into EDGE4 with the return of Rashan Gary. He can be at the very least a rotational pass rusher at that point, and the core of Rashan Gary, Kinglsey Enagbare and FAU is bright. Round Three (78th Overall) - Luke Wypler [C; Ohio State] It wasn't intentional that 2 out of the first 3 picks are Buckeyes, but it's time to apply pressure to Josh Myers. As a rookie, he looked solid but he never really progressed and you could even argue that he might have even regressed a bit. Enter Wypler who immediately competes for the starting C spot, and probably can play some OG if Myers holds onto his position. Round Five (149th Overall) - Myles Brooks [CB/S; Louisiana Tech] I would have liked to have gone with a DB sooner, but this year's safety class is looking a bit rough. The top safety (Brian Branch) is a solid safety, but I'm not sure that he's going to be an impact safety at the next level. Brooks looks like one of those hybrid CB/S at the next level, but the Packers move him to safety full-time and allow him to develop Round Five (170th Overall) - Jahleel Billingsley [TE; Texas] The Packers gamble on another Texas TE who underperformed in college. Most thought Billingsley was going to be a high pick after a career at Alabama but after being underutilized in Tuscaloosa he transferred to Texas and still wasn't productive. He's athletic and he's got the ability to be a big time receiving threat from the TE position, but he's never managed to put it together. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arthur Penske Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 (edited) I think your compensation for Rodgers is about what he’ll go for. Hope we get more obviously. Edited January 29, 2023 by Arthur Penske 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 I'd rather keep pick 15 and drop the 2025 1st 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Guy Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 WOW! I hate the Rodgers trade with every fiber of my being. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 (edited) Big holes at safety and along DL Edited January 29, 2023 by squire12 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hitnhope Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 The Packers would be a poor team next season if this plays out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopackgonerd Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 1 minute ago, hitnhope said: The Packers would be a poor team next season if this plays out. You can't really expect it to be much better with how much we're strapped with the cap. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted January 29, 2023 Author Share Posted January 29, 2023 14 minutes ago, Old Guy said: WOW! I hate the Rodgers trade with every fiber of my being. What do you think he should fetch? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted January 29, 2023 Author Share Posted January 29, 2023 19 minutes ago, squire12 said: I'd rather keep pick 15 and drop the 2025 1st If you want to keep #15, than I think you'd need to take substantially less in terms of future picks. Think something that's probably more like a 2024 3rd round pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Guy Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 1 minute ago, CWood21 said: What do you think he should fetch? I honestly don't know! I want more instant gratification more than anything. Truth be told, this is a pretty weak draft class so it might not be so bad. I'd say, I'd like the '24 pick to have no strings attached since Rodgers would be playing this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted January 29, 2023 Author Share Posted January 29, 2023 2 minutes ago, Old Guy said: I honestly don't know! I want more instant gratification more than anything. Truth be told, this is a pretty weak draft class so it might not be so bad. I'd say, I'd like the '24 pick to have no strings attached since Rodgers would be playing this year. To be fair, I get that. But I also think that if you're getting more today, than you're going to get even less tomorrow. Think something like #13 plus a conditional pick in 2024. 4th if they miss the playoffs, 3 if they make the playoffs, 2nd if they make the Super Bowl, and a 1st if they win the Super Bowl. I'd rather have the future picks that protects the Packers if Jordan Love were to struggle. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 7 minutes ago, CWood21 said: If you want to keep #15, than I think you'd need to take substantially less in terms of future picks. Think something that's probably more like a 2024 3rd round pick. The pick swap from 15 to 13 is equal to pick 100. So a Late 2023 3rd in value Mid to late 20s to 2nd round in 2024 Likely 2025 mid 2nd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 5 minutes ago, CWood21 said: To be fair, I get that. But I also think that if you're getting more today, than you're going to get even less tomorrow. Think something like #13 plus a conditional pick in 2024. 4th if they miss the playoffs, 3 if they make the playoffs, 2nd if they make the Super Bowl, and a 1st if they win the Super Bowl. I'd rather have the future picks that protects the Packers if Jordan Love were to struggle. But those future picks are going to be enough to move up substantially if Love isn't it 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted January 29, 2023 Author Share Posted January 29, 2023 Just now, squire12 said: But those future picks are going to be enough to move up substantially if Love isn't it IF Love struggles, the Packers are already going to be picking relatively high. Let's say they're picking top 8 plus they have the Jets pick (22-30) as part of the trade. Those two picks likely get you into the trade discussions for a top 3 pick, and adding another pick or two probably gets you there when you factor in QB premiums. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackFan13 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 Tonyan is not worthy of that contract. Why not try getting someone athletic at the position? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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