2023 Draft

[theJ]

 

[INbengalfan]

1 minute ago, theJ said:

 

I'm not disagreeing, but I think the Bengals have ignored RAS more than other teams if the guy had dominant tape.  Brown did.  Ogbuehi did not.

[theJ]

Just now, INbengalfan said:

Andre Smith worked out fine for us though (I'm not considering value on the pick spent).  OBJr did quite well for himself as well.  Bobby Williams was a bad man.  

 

Ogbuehi was considered athletic.  So was Fisher.  They sucked.  Price was a plodder. 

Ogbuehi never tested.  Fisher never really had a real chance, but he did have a good RAS.  Bobby Williams is a guard and outside of the discussion of testing on tackles.

Andre Smith was a bit of an outlier too.

None of this is 100% certain.  Someone who tests well doesn't automatically become a great tackle.  Some one who tests poorly doesn't necessarily wash out.  But the correlations are so strong that it's incredibly dumb to ignore them and think you've found the diamond in the rough.  Best bet to maximize your picks find the guys whose testing and production profiles line up with strong correlations for success.  

[theJ]

1 minute ago, INbengalfan said:

I'm not disagreeing, but I think the Bengals have ignored RAS more than other teams if the guy had dominant tape.  Brown did.  Ogbuehi did not.

They have, i agree with you.  They've also drafted incredibly poorly at the tackle position for the last decade.

[INbengalfan]

14 minutes ago, theJ said:

They have, i agree with you.  They've also drafted incredibly poorly at the tackle position for the last decade.

They definitely have.  Their "type" doesn't seem to be working recently (including Carman).

[sparky151]

3 hours ago, theJ said:

Ogbuehi never tested.  Fisher never really had a real chance, but he did have a good RAS.  Bobby Williams is a guard and outside of the discussion of testing on tackles.

Andre Smith was a bit of an outlier too.

None of this is 100% certain.  Someone who tests well doesn't automatically become a great tackle.  Some one who tests poorly doesn't necessarily wash out.  But the correlations are so strong that it's incredibly dumb to ignore them and think you've found the diamond in the rough.  Best bet to maximize your picks find the guys whose testing and production profiles line up with strong correlations for success.  

So you think tackles who test well like Freeland, Saldiveri, or Witt will be better pro players than Jones? 

[Beck Bristow]

1 hour ago, sparky151 said:

So you think tackles who test well like Freeland, Saldiveri, or Witt will be better pro players than Jones? 

Nothing wrong looking at tape and testing.

[sparky151]

Sidy Sow was all-MAC the last 3 years and had a very high RAS. That doesn't make him an early round prospect. Likewise Jake Witt or Blake Freeland. The tackles who scored high on RAS are mostly lighter guys who move well. That's fine for LT but we're looking for a RT, a guy who can generate push in the run game and hold his ground vs pass rushers. Darnell Wright scored well on RAS and he'd be a good pick for us at 28. Dawand Jones doesn't have a RAS score due to not running or lifting yet but there doesn't seem to be any doubt about his strength or ability to mirror. 

[theJ]

5 hours ago, sparky151 said:

So you think tackles who test well like Freeland, Saldiveri, or Witt will be better pro players than Jones? 

Testing profile and and and and production profile.  I did make a point to include that wording several times over.

EDIT: BTW, i'd really suggest the entire thread on that twitter link i posted.  It's an enlightening set of statistics on OT's specifically.

[theJ]

2 hours ago, sparky151 said:

Sidy Sow was all-MAC the last 3 years and had a very high RAS. That doesn't make him an early round prospect. Likewise Jake Witt or Blake Freeland. The tackles who scored high on RAS are mostly lighter guys who move well. That's fine for LT but we're looking for a RT, a guy who can generate push in the run game and hold his ground vs pass rushers. Darnell Wright scored well on RAS and he'd be a good pick for us at 28. Dawand Jones doesn't have a RAS score due to not running or lifting yet but there doesn't seem to be any doubt about his strength or ability to mirror. 

RAS is calculated off size.  A lighter guy would have to move faster than a guy his size.  Moving at a slightly better pace than a heavier guy doesn't make his RAS higher.

[theJ]

Let me dumb it down a bit so my point can't be confused:

If an OT tests poorly or doesn't test (low RAS), they have a very low chance statistically of becoming a good pro, regardless of production profile in college.

If an OT test well (high RAS) and has a good production profile, the chances of success in the NFL are much higher.  But certainly still not guaranteed. 

 

Jones may buck that trend, but Vegas would put long odds on it.

[sparky151]

18 hours ago, theJ said:

RAS is calculated off size.  A lighter guy would have to move faster than a guy his size.  Moving at a slightly better pace than a heavier guy doesn't make his RAS higher.

RAS is based off historical values at a given position. Within the position, weight isn't used as an adjustment for a given stat. If an OT runs a 4.8 40 at 305 and another runs the same time at 320, they're both getting the same score in that box. The guy with 320 will get a better score for his weight relative to norms at the position. 

 

18 hours ago, theJ said:

Let me dumb it down a bit so my point can't be confused:

If an OT tests poorly or doesn't test (low RAS), they have a very low chance statistically of becoming a good pro, regardless of production profile in college.

If an OT test well (high RAS) and has a good production profile, the chances of success in the NFL are much higher.  But certainly still not guaranteed. 

 

Jones may buck that trend, but Vegas would put long odds on it.

Why do you think Jones doesn't have a good production profile? He's started and played well for 2 years at a top college. He didn't allow a sack in 2022 and made the all conference and some all-American teams. He didn't miss any snaps for injury. He was generally dominant. 

[theJ]

7 hours ago, sparky151 said:

RAS is based off historical values at a given position. Within the position, weight isn't used as an adjustment for a given stat. If an OT runs a 4.8 40 at 305 and another runs the same time at 320, they're both getting the same score in that box. The guy with 320 will get a better score for his weight relative to norms at the position. 

Yes, you are correct.  I misread the explanation on the RAS website.

7 hours ago, sparky151 said:

Why do you think Jones doesn't have a good production profile? He's started and played well for 2 years at a top college. He didn't allow a sack in 2022 and made the all conference and some all-American teams. He didn't miss any snaps for injury. He was generally dominant. 

I think Jones has an excellent production profile.  Unfortunately, guys with poor or no testing have a terrible track record, regardless of the production profile.

Again, he may end up being a good pro.  But not testing has planted him firmly in the 2nd round, most likely.  But it only takes one team, and the Bengals love to grab the guys that haven't tested or test really poorly.  So who knows.  All i'm saying is that i'd be out on the guy in the first round, especially if the reports of his weight over 400 lbs are correct.  It says a lot about a guy that in the most critical 5 months of his life he can't put down the cheeseburger and stay in shape.  Hypothetically speaking.

[sparky151]

Uh, the "reports" that he weighs 400 lbs are probably nonsense, spread by a team that hopes he drops to them. Jones was weighed and measured at the Senior bowl and Combine. 

[THE DUKE]

I'm leery of Jones at 28, but not out.  At 60 he'd be an absolute steal and worth the risk.

Kincaid on the other hand, i'm pretty much out on.  Probably won't be able to test before the draft, not a blocker, under sized, he's basically just a big WR.