ET80 Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 10 hours ago, Pastor Dillon said: You aren’t moving up from 12 to 5 with a couple 3rds Here’s a DVC I found - 5th is valued at 1500, 12th is valued at 1200, so that’s 300 needed to even everything out. Pick 33 = 585 Pick 65 = 265 Pick 73 = 225 Pick 104 = 98 Pick 187 = 20 Pick 245 = 8 Realistically… 1200 + 265 + 225 = 1690 1690 - 1500 = 190 So by this DVC, Seattle would have to find the equivalent of the 80th pick (3rd round) to even the trade between the two teams. Seattle sending back pick 83 (175) STILL gives the value edge to Seattle. Other DVCs have other values, but the values of pick 1-20 are relatively the same. The math is awfully similar between them all, so 12 + 65 + 73 is absolutely equal value to 5th overall (especially when you consider both John Schneider and Nick Caserio are both big analytics guys who take this math into consideration when making decisions). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jch1911 Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 9 minutes ago, ET80 said: Here’s a DVC I found - 5th is valued at 1500, 12th is valued at 1200, so that’s 300 needed to even everything out. Pick 33 = 585 Pick 65 = 265 Pick 73 = 225 Pick 104 = 98 Pick 187 = 20 Pick 245 = 8 Realistically… 1200 + 265 + 225 = 1690 1690 - 1500 = 190 So by this DVC, Seattle would have to find the equivalent of the 80th pick (3rd round) to even the trade between the two teams. Seattle sending back pick 83 (175) STILL gives the value edge to Seattle. Other DVCs have other values, but the values of pick 1-20 are relatively the same. The math is awfully similar between them all, so 12 + 65 + 73 is absolutely equal value to 5th overall (especially when you consider both John Schneider and Nick Caserio are both big analytics guys who take this math into consideration when making decisions). Love this... but it does say 5th = 1700 (7th = 1500) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 5 minutes ago, jch1911 said: Love this... but it does say 5th = 1700 (7th = 1500) Dammit… my eyes are failing me too fast! (Overall point still remains: [1690 - 1700 = -10] so maybe throw in that Mr Irrelevant Comp pick for an extra 8 points). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jch1911 Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 So since we have re-signed S. Ques (yuck) & MJ Stewart (yay?!). Which other free agents should the team bring back right now? Unrestricted FAs My targets are bolded. Bolded & italicized are probably out of the price range the club would offer. 88 Jordan Akins TE somebody gonna overpay for Akins - hopefully not the Texans 3 Kyle Allen QB 28 Rex Burkhead RB 4 Phillip Dorsett WR 6 Jeff Driskel QB 26 Royce Freeman RB92 Rasheem Green DE 43 Neville Hewitt OLB83 O. J. Howard TE 64 Justin McCray G15 Chris Moore WR45 Ogbonnia Okoronkwo OLB36 Jonathan Owens SS 57 Kevin Pierre-Louis OLB 95 Derek Rivers DE 1 Tremon Smith CB 2 Tavierre Thomas CB TE O.J. Howard - I would offer 1 year, $4M fully guaranteed. Would put among top 30 highest paid TEs. Gets a chance with a OC who probably could use him better than the last one. WR Chris Moore - I would offer offer 2 years, $8M, $2M signing bonus ($4M APY). Decent pay day for WR3/4 and core STer. Edge Ogbonnia Okoronkwo - I would offer 4 years, $64M, 1st year fully guaranteed, $16M SB (with $24M guaranteed). APY of $16M is decent for edge / pass rusher. Would put him among top 15 in terms of pay Year 1 - $8M base + $4M SB = $12M (fully guaranteed) year 2 - $2M base + $8M roster bonus + $4M SB = $14M year 3 - $4M base + $10M roster bonus + $4M SB = $18M year 4 - $6M base + $10M roster bonus + $4M SB = $20M He plays well and he is being compensated, but room to restructure the deal in the future. Texans have an out after year 1 if it goes off the rails. SAF Jonathan Owens - offer same deal as MJ Stewart. Maybe 2 years, $8M - Simone Biles bonus because they need $ for wedding & honeymoon. CB Tavierre Thomas - offer 2 years, $8M ($4M SB). Doubles his salary. Decent pay for backup NCB who could spot start and plays in dime + quarter defenses. That's $28M in cap room eaten up. So could - trade Cooks (+$10M) - restructure Collins (+$4M) - trade Kirksey (+$5M) - cut Murray (+$4M) - cut Reeves-Maybin (+$2M) done About $37M available to pursue other teams' free agents. Could still extend Tunsil & Howard to create even more cap room. Earn your $$$, Nick! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pastor Dillon Posted March 10 Author Share Posted March 10 3 hours ago, ET80 said: Here’s a DVC I found - 5th is valued at 1500, 12th is valued at 1200, so that’s 300 needed to even everything out. Pick 33 = 585 Pick 65 = 265 Pick 73 = 225 Pick 104 = 98 Pick 187 = 20 Pick 245 = 8 Realistically… 1200 + 265 + 225 = 1690 1690 - 1500 = 190 So by this DVC, Seattle would have to find the equivalent of the 80th pick (3rd round) to even the trade between the two teams. Seattle sending back pick 83 (175) STILL gives the value edge to Seattle. Other DVCs have other values, but the values of pick 1-20 are relatively the same. The math is awfully similar between them all, so 12 + 65 + 73 is absolutely equal value to 5th overall (especially when you consider both John Schneider and Nick Caserio are both big analytics guys who take this math into consideration when making decisions). Teams don't use that chart when trading top 5 picks away, especially if they move outside the top 10. I would make this trade all day, every day if I am the Texans. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 2 hours ago, Pastor Dillon said: Teams don't use that chart when trading top 5 picks away, especially if they move outside the top 10. I would make this trade all day, every day if I am the Texans. Teams that value analytics (such as the Seahawks) do. Given the history of the Seahawks during the John Schneider era - those mid round picks (Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett) tend to work out better than their 1st round picks (Rashaad Penny, James Carpenter, Bruce Irvin). Seattle understands how to use those mid rounders well, and they’ll see the value of getting two extra in exchange for dropping seven picks in the top. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pastor Dillon Posted March 10 Author Share Posted March 10 29 minutes ago, jch1911 said: So since we have re-signed S. Ques (yuck) & MJ Stewart (yay?!). Which other free agents should the team bring back right now? Unrestricted FAs My targets are bolded. Bolded & italicized are probably out of the price range the club would offer. 88 Jordan Akins TE somebody gonna overpay for Akins - hopefully not the Texans 3 Kyle Allen QB 28 Rex Burkhead RB 4 Phillip Dorsett WR 6 Jeff Driskel QB 26 Royce Freeman RB92 Rasheem Green DE 43 Neville Hewitt OLB83 O. J. Howard TE 64 Justin McCray G15 Chris Moore WR45 Ogbonnia Okoronkwo OLB36 Jonathan Owens SS 57 Kevin Pierre-Louis OLB 95 Derek Rivers DE 1 Tremon Smith CB 2 Tavierre Thomas CB TE O.J. Howard - I would offer 1 year, $4M fully guaranteed. Would put among top 30 highest paid TEs. Gets a chance with a OC who probably could use him better than the last one. WR Chris Moore - I would offer offer 2 years, $8M, $2M signing bonus ($4M APY). Decent pay day for WR3/4 and core STer. Edge Ogbonnia Okoronkwo - I would offer 4 years, $64M, 1st year fully guaranteed, $16M SB (with $24M guaranteed). APY of $16M is decent for edge / pass rusher. Would put him among top 15 in terms of pay Year 1 - $8M base + $4M SB = $12M (fully guaranteed) year 2 - $2M base + $8M roster bonus + $4M SB = $14M year 3 - $4M base + $10M roster bonus + $4M SB = $18M year 4 - $6M base + $10M roster bonus + $4M SB = $20M He plays well and he is being compensated, but room to restructure the deal in the future. Texans have an out after year 1 if it goes off the rails. SAF Jonathan Owens - offer same deal as MJ Stewart. Maybe 2 years, $8M - Simone Biles bonus because they need $ for wedding & honeymoon. CB Tavierre Thomas - offer 2 years, $8M ($4M SB). Doubles his salary. Decent pay for backup NCB who could spot start and plays in dime + quarter defenses. That's $28M in cap room eaten up. So could - trade Cooks (+$10M) - restructure Collins (+$4M) - trade Kirksey (+$5M) - cut Murray (+$4M) - cut Reeves-Maybin (+$2M) done About $37M available to pursue other teams' free agents. Could still extend Tunsil & Howard to create even more cap room. Earn your $$$, Nick! If Okoronkwo can get a 64 million dollar deal, he can go place football elsewhere. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jch1911 Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 32 minutes ago, Pastor Dillon said: If Okoronkwo can get a 64 million dollar deal, he can go place football elsewhere. Meh. It looks like $64M.. more like 2 for $26M.... Hate to break it to you, but pass rushers get paid in the NFL - especially youngish, promising ones. I think he would settle for $8M APY, but his agent might not... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pastor Dillon Posted March 10 Author Share Posted March 10 34 minutes ago, jch1911 said: Meh. It looks like $64M.. more like 2 for $26M.... Hate to break it to you, but pass rushers get paid in the NFL - especially youngish, promising ones. I think he would settle for $8M APY, but his agent might not... he's 28 and has fewer than 10 sacks in his career.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jch1911 Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Pastor Dillon said: he's 28 and has fewer than 10 sacks in his career.... All fair points... analytics said he was one of the best at creating pressure in the NFL last year (especially over the last few games). Of those 10 sacks, 5 happened this past year (his first in Htown) with additional snaps. He was in LA before and they hardly used him. (Mostly as a 3-4 OLB instead of 4-3 DE.) Plus most of his sacks & pressure was not created from blitzes. Huge plus for a pass rusher. Sometimes you get paid on upside... Once again, just my thought on how the market could play out. Edited March 10 by jch1911 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pastor Dillon Posted March 10 Author Share Posted March 10 After seeing how cheap it was to move from 9 to 1, I retract my argument about moving from 12-5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texansfan713 Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 Nice veteran presence in case we draft a WR and let Cook go. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jch1911 Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 3 minutes ago, Texansfan713 said: Nice veteran presence in case we draft a WR and let Cook go. Was coming to post. Not in love with how much he got. I would have preferred Slayton in FA for 1/3 of the price. But we'll see shrug.emoji Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 14 minutes ago, jch1911 said: Was coming to post. Not in love with how much he got. I would have preferred Slayton in FA for 1/3 of the price. But we'll see shrug.emoji Eh… $7.6mm AAV isn’t horrible with contracts the way they are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jch1911 Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 2 minutes ago, ET80 said: Eh… $7.6mm AAV isn’t horrible with contracts the way they are. I was doing a deeper dive in the 15 minutes since I posted. Still would prefer Slayton, but Woods looks legit... IF... big IF... he is fully recovered. So the deal ain't so bad 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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