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turtle28

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1 hour ago, Woz said:

Don't think you have. The rumors of that have been flying of late.

For me, it will depend on what the final contract is. 

If he signs for anything under what the Lerners originally offered Boras should be fired. But I bet the Phillies are bidding against themselves right now. 

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Just now, lavar703 said:

If he signs for anything under what the Lerners originally offered Boras should be fired. But I bet the Phillies are bidding against themselves right now. 

I wonder if the Lerners or the White Sox sent one more offer to Harper & Boras ... and he's hesitating now.

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4 hours ago, Woz said:

I wonder if the Lerners or the White Sox sent one more offer to Harper & Boras ... and he's hesitating now.

I doubt it. I’m sure he wants to stay in DC and probably is hoping they’ll counter. I believe we’ve moved on though and are now focused on Rendon. 

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Was talking it out with my colleague here. Only scenarios we could come up with:

  1. Harper was going to sign with the Phillies yesterday, but then another team (maybe the Nationals, maybe not) came in with a last minute offer. It may not be as lucrative as the Phillies offer but it was a team that Harper would rather play for hence the sudden radio silence. This would explain why the MLB: The Show guys hinted that there was a signing in the offing (there was), but then nothing happened.
  2. The market has gone soft with non-Phillies teams, and maybe the Phillies offer is less than what the Nats were offering earlier (but the door to has closed for coming back to Washington). So, Boras had a buddy who had a buddy who had a buddy hint to the MLB: The Show guys that Harper was going to sign with the Phillies in hopes of goosing the market.
  3. A variant of #2: The market has gone cold and there's nothing that would be suitable given where Harper could have been back in October with the 10y/$300M. This ends up being a one year deal, but that's really bad news for Boras.

 

Basically, I think Harper/Boras thought the Nats were going to head into this off-season desperate to retain Bryce, but didn't count on Rizzo and the Nationals saying "look, we'd love to have you back, but we have these young cheap guys in Soto and Robles who have allowed us to go out and sign a third pitcher" and most of the rest of the league saying "no, we're tanking and trying to build through the draft."

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Stealing this from @Doc Draper from the coaching change thread to discuss the image:

bofa-asset-quilt-returns-1.jpg

 

FOR THE RECORD: I AM NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISER. Just examining the table with a little of my own opinion thrown in at the end. Do your own homework and/or consult a professional.

 

Class vs S&P 500 (where I've put a ?, it's where I think this is what the class is, but cannot swear to it)

  • REITS (Real Estate Investment Trusts)
    • Overall performance better than S&P 500: 6 times
    • Last five years performance better than S&P 500: 0 times
  • MSCI EM (MSCI Emerging Markets Index (*))
    • Overall performance better than S&P 500: 9 times
    • Last five years performance better than S&P 500: 2 times
  • MSCI EAFE (MSCI European, Australasia, and Far East Index (large & mid-cap stocks in 21 developed markets excluding US and Canada))
    • Overall performance better than S&P 500: 7 times
    • Last five years performance better than S&P 500: 1 time

       
  • Global HY (Global High Yield Corporate Bond Funds (?))
    • Overall performance better than S&P 500: 6 times (2008 was negative but lost less than the S&P 500)
    • Last five years performance better than S&P 500: 1 time
  • Global IG (Global Investment Grade Corporate Bond Funds (?))
    • Overall performance better than S&P 500: 3 times (2008 was negative but lost less than the S&P 500)
    • Last five years performance better than S&P 500: 0 time
  • US Treasuries
    • Overall performance better than S&P 500: 3 times
    • Last five years performance better than S&P 500: 1 time

       
  • Gold
    • Overall performance better than S&P 500: 7 times
    • Last five years performance better than S&P 500: 1 time
  • Commodities (while it isn't clear, I assume this excludes gold)
    • Overall performance better than S&P 500: 5 times (2008 was negative but lost less than the S&P 500)
    • Last five years performance better than S&P 500: 1 time
  • Cash
    • Overall performance better than S&P 500: 1 time
    • Last five years performance better than S&P 500: 0 times

 

(*) I'm a bit confused as to why South Korea is in the Emerging Markets fund and not the EAFE fund, but I don't run these so there you are.

 

Basically, and again this is only my opinion based on my risk tolerances:

  1. While it may be tough, invest as early as you can.
  2. Invest for the long term.
  3. Go for a buy & hold strategy (don't day trade or try to flip for short term gains (the taxes suck if for no other reason)). Playing the market is a sucker's bet.
  4. Depending on your age, focus mainly on cheap index funds (by cheap, I mean fund fees ... like sub 0.1-0.2% ... essentially Vanguard or Vanguard-like funds; never take a fund with a fee above 0.5% at the absolute max, and it better be stellar).
    1. Go mainly in the US market (a large cap and a mid-cap fund).
    2. Diversification outside of the US market is good, so I feel like you can play in the EAFE space, but I'm not a fan of the emerging market space (when it's up, it's up ... when it's down, it's down). Most of the mainstays in EM ... I no like their geopolitical trend lines, but that could be my first world biases kicking in.
    3. A global market fund (not listed in this, but essentially a fusion between S&P 500 and EAFE) is fine, but I think you'll find the fees aren't as cheap.
    4. Sector funds (again, not listed, but funds that focus on a specific market segment like technology or green companies) should be minor pieces (no more than 5% of your portfolio).
    5. If you're young, don't worry about the bond funds, but as you get closer to retirement you might want to shift more to the bonds (or even Treasuries) to keep the gains that you have safe (you don't need double digit gains as much as capital protection).
  5. Stay the hell away from commodities (you can lose your shirt, your pants, your house, etc if you don't know what you are doing ... even if you do, you can still get cleaned out).
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LSU finalizing extension for Coach O.

Im still torn on who is more destructive of a team. Bruce Allen or LSUs AD Joe Alleva. It really is that bad that its a tossup.

LSU athletics was winning NCs in all kinds of sports at one time. Over 60 total championships. Then since Alleva got hired. 1 in any sport the past 11 years. Everything I like gets ruined by scumbags.

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To bounce off of @Woz's point, I'm a big believer in the Equal Market Hypothesis when it comes to an individual investor (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis). As someone presumably working a full-time job in something other than investing, I don't think you can consistently count on beating the market, you're basically just gambling if you're making alot of trades. I'd rather keep my fees low, and have a diverse set of funds that will over time move with the market, rather than chasing a big return which offset with some big losses.

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1 hour ago, Jeezy Fanatic said:

To bounce off of @Woz's point, I'm a big believer in the Equal Market Hypothesis when it comes to an individual investor (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis). As someone presumably working a full-time job in something other than investing, I don't think you can consistently count on beating the market, you're basically just gambling if you're making alot of trades. I'd rather keep my fees low, and have a diverse set of funds that will over time move with the market, rather than chasing a big return which offset with some big losses.

It's why most of what I play with is long term in mind too. I'll sit on Coke, AT&T, Visa, etc. Day trading is not for me. 

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21 hours ago, MikeT14 said:

It's why most of what I play with is long term in mind too. I'll sit on Coke, AT&T, Visa, etc. Day trading is not for me. 

All of my holdings are through an ESPP. It fluctuates quite a bit and really fluctuated when Musk went on Rogans podcast lol. I check my E*TRADE daily but still don’t understand the majority of it. 

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On 1/30/2019 at 12:03 PM, Woz said:

Stealing this from @Doc Draper from the coaching change thread to discuss the image:

bofa-asset-quilt-returns-1.jpg

 

FOR THE RECORD: I AM NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISER. Just examining the table with a little of my own opinion thrown in at the end. Do your own homework and/or consult a professional.

 

Class vs S&P 500 (where I've put a ?, it's where I think this is what the class is, but cannot swear to it)

  • REITS (Real Estate Investment Trusts)
    • Overall performance better than S&P 500: 6 times
    • Last five years performance better than S&P 500: 0 times
  • MSCI EM (MSCI Emerging Markets Index (*))
    • Overall performance better than S&P 500: 9 times
    • Last five years performance better than S&P 500: 2 times
  • MSCI EAFE (MSCI European, Australasia, and Far East Index (large & mid-cap stocks in 21 developed markets excluding US and Canada))
    • Overall performance better than S&P 500: 7 times
    • Last five years performance better than S&P 500: 1 time

       
  • Global HY (Global High Yield Corporate Bond Funds (?))
    • Overall performance better than S&P 500: 6 times (2008 was negative but lost less than the S&P 500)
    • Last five years performance better than S&P 500: 1 time
  • Global IG (Global Investment Grade Corporate Bond Funds (?))
    • Overall performance better than S&P 500: 3 times (2008 was negative but lost less than the S&P 500)
    • Last five years performance better than S&P 500: 0 time
  • US Treasuries
    • Overall performance better than S&P 500: 3 times
    • Last five years performance better than S&P 500: 1 time

       
  • Gold
    • Overall performance better than S&P 500: 7 times
    • Last five years performance better than S&P 500: 1 time
  • Commodities (while it isn't clear, I assume this excludes gold)
    • Overall performance better than S&P 500: 5 times (2008 was negative but lost less than the S&P 500)
    • Last five years performance better than S&P 500: 1 time
  • Cash
    • Overall performance better than S&P 500: 1 time
    • Last five years performance better than S&P 500: 0 times

 

(*) I'm a bit confused as to why South Korea is in the Emerging Markets fund and not the EAFE fund, but I don't run these so there you are.

 

Basically, and again this is only my opinion based on my risk tolerances:

  1. While it may be tough, invest as early as you can.
  2. Invest for the long term.
  3. Go for a buy & hold strategy (don't day trade or try to flip for short term gains (the taxes suck if for no other reason)). Playing the market is a sucker's bet.
  4. Depending on your age, focus mainly on cheap index funds (by cheap, I mean fund fees ... like sub 0.1-0.2% ... essentially Vanguard or Vanguard-like funds; never take a fund with a fee above 0.5% at the absolute max, and it better be stellar).
    1. Go mainly in the US market (a large cap and a mid-cap fund).
    2. Diversification outside of the US market is good, so I feel like you can play in the EAFE space, but I'm not a fan of the emerging market space (when it's up, it's up ... when it's down, it's down). Most of the mainstays in EM ... I no like their geopolitical trend lines, but that could be my first world biases kicking in.
    3. A global market fund (not listed in this, but essentially a fusion between S&P 500 and EAFE) is fine, but I think you'll find the fees aren't as cheap.
    4. Sector funds (again, not listed, but funds that focus on a specific market segment like technology or green companies) should be minor pieces (no more than 5% of your portfolio).
    5. If you're young, don't worry about the bond funds, but as you get closer to retirement you might want to shift more to the bonds (or even Treasuries) to keep the gains that you have safe (you don't need double digit gains as much as capital protection).
  5. Stay the hell away from commodities (you can lose your shirt, your pants, your house, etc if you don't know what you are doing ... even if you do, you can still get cleaned out).

@Woz “spitting wisdom” throughout as my younger friends say it. Well done. You have a future in Investment Counseling. I’ll help people decide how to spend it for maximum fun :)

 

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