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Upcoming QB Contracts...


NYRaider

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1 hour ago, INbengalfan said:

I expect Burrow to sign like an 8 year extension (added to remaining two years) in the $400+ mill range.  Huge signing bonus.  Herbert will get a dollar more or something after that.  the rest of the rookie deals will see shorter extensions.  Burrow and Herbert are worth the Mahomes type deals in length.

it would be better to drop the signing bonus and increase the other methods of guarantees to allow more flexibility with shifting cap space in future years.  

the Mahomes contract was only $10M signing bonus, but had large guarantees that were triggered well before Mahomes could be cut

 

 https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/patrick-mahomes-21751/

Quote

Patrick Mahomes signed a 10 year, $450,000,000 contract with the Kansas City Chiefs, including a $10,000,000 signing bonus, $141,481,905 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $45,000,000. In 2023, Mahomes will earn a base salary of $5,500,000, a roster bonus of $34,400,000 and a workout bonus of $550,000, while carrying a cap hit of $46,793,381 and a dead cap value of $94,880,143.

 

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Given Lamar's insistence on a fully guaranteed contract, him missing significant chunks of the last two years, him not coming back for the playoffs this year, and hinting that he won't play on the franchise tag next year, it makes me wonder if he has some debilitating type of injury that he is trying to get into his new contract before he steps foot on a football field again.

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1 hour ago, NYRaider said:

The durability concerns along with his regression as a runner and a passer make it impossible to give him a fully GTD deal, IMO. He should've signed an extension after the 2020 season, why did he wait?

Not sure about 2020 specifically, but last offseason Lamar told a reporter at a presser that he balked on a deal that included 160-180 mil guaranteed.

His prerogative, I guess. But I don't see how this season would have moved the offer much up more than that - if at all - from the Ravens' side tbh

Edited by Ray Reed
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3 minutes ago, THE DUKE said:

Given Lamar's insistence on a fully guaranteed contract, him missing significant chunks of the last two years, him not coming back for the playoffs this year, and hinting that he won't play on the franchise tag next year, it makes me wonder if he has some debilitating type of injury that he is trying to get into his new contract before he steps foot on a football field again.

Would he be able to keep that a secret from the Ravens?

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1 minute ago, Ray Reed said:

Not sure about 2020 specifically, but last offseason Lamar told a reporter at a presser that he balked on a deal that included 160-180 mil guaranteed.

His prerogative, I guess. But I don't see how this season would have moved the offer much more than that from the Ravens' side tbh

Most guys sign their extensions in between years 3/4, he was coming off of two really strong years and his value was probably at its peak, IMO. Doesn't he represent himself though?

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1 minute ago, NYRaider said:

Most guys sign their extensions in between years 3/4, he was coming off of two really strong years and his value was probably at its peak, IMO. Doesn't he represent himself though?

Yes, sort of. He has a group behind closed doors that consults him comprised mostly of family friends/his mother.

The interesting part is that allegedly, the NFLPA has stepped in and begun to include themselves more and more into his side of negotiation discussions. I'm willing to bet money that the NFLPA leadership is pushing him to be steadfast on the fully guaranteed contract so that it becomes the norm in the sport, and not an outlier with Watson. They see Lamar as the ticket to transitioning NFL contracts -> NBA/MLB type contracts.

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10 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Would he be able to keep that a secret from the Ravens?

As long as it doesn't show up on a physical.  I had a bad bicep strain a few years ago, and as far as medical imaging goes, it looks completely healthy. I know it doesn't feel the same as it used to though, and i'm a lot more cautious on how I push that arm now.  Granted i'm a decent bit older than Lamar, but my general point is that you know how your body is feeling and if something feels off.

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11 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Would he be able to keep that a secret from the Ravens?

no lol, especially at an annual physical where doctors probe NFL players for pretty much everything under the sun. 

It's caught cancer for a couple players, lamar isn't hiding anything ya'll. He just wants $ and wants to protect his future self.

https://www.nfl.com/news/brain-tumor-found-during-lions-rb-harrison-s-trade-physical-09000d5d8234cf43

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10 minutes ago, Ray Reed said:

Yes, sort of. He has a group behind closed doors that consults him comprised mostly of family friends/his mother.

The interesting part is that allegedly, the NFLPA has stepped in and begun to include themselves more and more into his side of negotiation discussions. I'm willing to bet money that the NFLPA leadership is pushing him to be steadfast on the fully guaranteed contract so that it becomes the norm in the sport, and not an outlier with Watson. They see Lamar as the ticket to transitioning NFL contracts -> NBA/MLB type contracts.

Watson getting that deal set a bad precedent for other guys going forward, especially after he took a year off and had a ton of baggage. 

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1 hour ago, NYRaider said:

FWIW, Market Values according to Spotrac: 

• Lamar Jackson - 6 yr/$244M ($40.7M APY)

• Joe Burrow - 6 yr/$264M ($44M APY)

• Jalen Hurts - 6 yr/$265M ($44.2M APY)

• Justin Herbert - 6 yr/$254M ($42.2M APY)

• Tua Tagovailoa - 6 yr/$238M ($39.2M APY)

 

Hurts is valued higher than Burrow/Herbert. That's interesting.

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31 minutes ago, squire12 said:

it would be better to drop the signing bonus and increase the other methods of guarantees to allow more flexibility with shifting cap space in future years.  

the Mahomes contract was only $10M signing bonus, but had large guarantees that were triggered well before Mahomes could be cut

 

 https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/patrick-mahomes-21751/

 

The Brown family doesn't operate that way.  They loathe restructuring in general.  I think they will dump huge bonuses into the next two years before the contract balloons.  The front office also doesn't use void years very much (they did with Reiff and another player following the COVID year).  Maybe the front office catches up with the times, but escrow money seems to be an issue all of the time.  They reached an agreement with Bates last year on total contract, but fell way short of the guaranteed money his agent was looking for.  And not so coincidentally with Burrow's deal looming, he sold the naming rights to the stadium as the season started, along with other branding deals the team previously had ignored (to honor Paul Brown's legacy was the given reason)

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1 minute ago, Bullet Club said:

Hurts is valued higher than Burrow/Herbert. That's interesting.

Not really that interesting.  Hurts was a second rounder, so that fifth year option year on the next contract doesn't exist, as it does for Herbert and Burrow (and Tua if he were to get a massive extension).

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1 hour ago, NYRaider said:

FWIW, Market Values according to Spotrac: 

• Lamar Jackson - 6 yr/$244M ($40.7M APY)

• Joe Burrow - 6 yr/$264M ($44M APY)

• Jalen Hurts - 6 yr/$265M ($44.2M APY)

• Justin Herbert - 6 yr/$254M ($42.2M APY)

• Tua Tagovailoa - 6 yr/$238M ($39.2M APY)

 

Burrow is a bargain at those comparison contracts 

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