Upcoming QB Contracts...

[Soko]

10 minutes ago, Trojan said:

Is Jameis a downgrade from Daniel Jones? If Jameis cut turnover like Jones has in Dabolls system, I'd think Jameis is a better player. I'd take Jameis on the cheap as a replacement and draft more QBs.

I’d say Jameis is a downgrade, yeah. He’s not a starting QB in this league and has almost never displayed that ability to cut down on turnovers. If I’m the Giants, after the season we’ve just had, I’d unequivocally rather have Jones than a guy like Winston.

And to be clear, I don’t think all that much of Daniel Jones (especially as a long term starter), so it’s not like I’d be rushing to pay the man either. A gaudy long term deal would be a bigger mistake than letting him go. But from his perspective, after QBing the Giants to a playoff run (and a win) given their expectations coming into the season, he’d be stupid to take a deal that makes him the cheapest starting QB in the league (that’s not on a rookie deal). 

Edited February 7, 2023 by Yin-Yang

[NYRaider]

3 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

I’d say Jameis is a downgrade, yeah. He’s not a starting QB in this league and has almost never displayed that ability to cut down on turnovers. If I’m the Giants, after the season we’ve just had, I’d unequivocally rather have Jones than a guy like Winston.

And to be clear, I don’t think all that much of Daniel Jones (especially as a long term starter), so it’s not like I’d be rushing to pay the man either. A gaudy long term deal would be a bigger mistake than letting him go. But from his perspective, after QBing the Giants to a playoff run (and a win) given their expectations coming into the season, he’d be stupid to take a deal that makes him the cheapest starting QB in the league (that’s not on a rookie deal). 

They screwed up not exercising his 5th year option. Another route they could go is to franchise tag him and go out and acquire a legit #1 WR. If he can take another step forward then you can pay him next offseason. 

Josh Allen in year 2 with Daboll: 3,089 yards (59% comp), 20 TD, 9 INT, 6.7 Y/A, 49.4 QBR

Josh Allen in year 3 with Diggs: 4,544 yards (69% comp), 37 TD, 10 INT, 7.9 Y/A, 76.6 QBR

Daniel Jones this year with Daboll: 3,205 yards (67% comp), 15 TD, 5 INT, 6.7 Y/A, 60.8 QBR

Now I'm not saying he's the next Josh Allen, but I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that DJ could take a significant leap with a legit WR1.

[Trojan]

1 minute ago, Yin-Yang said:

I’d say Jameis is a downgrade, yeah. He’s not a starting QB in this league and has almost never displayed that ability to cut down on turnovers. If I’m the Giants, after the season we’ve just had, I’d unequivocally rather have Jones than a guy like Winston.

And to be clear, I don’t think all that much of Daniel Jones (especially as a long term starter), so it’s not like I’d be rushing to pay the man either. A gaudy long term deal would be a bigger mistake than letting him go. But from his perspective, after QBing the Giants to a playoff run (and a win) given their expectations coming into the season, he’d be stupid to take a deal that makes him the cheapest starting QB in the league (that’s not on a rookie deal). 

Could sign Jameis and Trubisky, then draft QBs. Paying DJ closer to 40mil a year and commiting to him seems way more dumb for a GM than saying he wants a bridge long shot and an opportunity to find and draft his guy. Daboll should have bought himself a pretty long leash making the playoffs this year. If Jameis was signed and his back was booty and you got the chance to get Caleb Williams or Drake Maye is Daboll getting replaced? No, he'd get his guy and a chance to develop them. I'd way prefer Jameis or Trubisky type approach like the Steelers did, or Dalton like the Saints did to Jameis. Someone is available for backup money that is more or less upside to be Jones tier or bad enough to be Mariota and then you find yourself drafting 8th overall with a shot at Young/Stroud/Levis/Richardson, or they think the guy they drafted Ridder offers something and if not they get Caleb Williams/Drake Maye/Others.

[NYRaider]

2 minutes ago, Trojan said:

Could sign Jameis and Trubisky, then draft QBs. Paying DJ closer to 40mil a year and commiting to him seems way more dumb for a GM than saying he wants a bridge long shot and an opportunity to find and draft his guy. Daboll should have bought himself a pretty long leash making the playoffs this year. If Jameis was signed and his back was booty and you got the chance to get Caleb Williams or Drake Maye is Daboll getting replaced? No, he'd get his guy and a chance to develop them. I'd way prefer Jameis or Trubisky type approach like the Steelers did, or Dalton like the Saints did to Jameis. Someone is available for backup money that is more or less upside to be Jones tier or bad enough to be Mariota and then you find yourself drafting 8th overall with a shot at Young/Stroud/Levis/Richardson, or they think the guy they drafted Ridder offers something and if not they get Caleb Williams/Drake Maye/Others.

How do the Saints / Steelers QB situations currently look using that approach? 

[Soko]

1 minute ago, Trojan said:

Could sign Jameis and Trubisky, then draft QBs. Paying DJ closer to 40mil a year and commiting to him seems way more dumb for a GM than saying he wants a bridge long shot and an opportunity to find and draft his guy. Daboll should have bought himself a pretty long leash making the playoffs this year. If Jameis was signed and his back was booty and you got the chance to get Caleb Williams or Drake Maye is Daboll getting replaced? No, he'd get his guy and a chance to develop them. I'd way prefer Jameis or Trubisky type approach like the Steelers did, or Dalton like the Saints did to Jameis. Someone is available for backup money that is more or less upside to be Jones tier or bad enough to be Mariota and then you find yourself drafting 8th overall with a shot at Young/Stroud/Levis/Richardson, or they think the guy they drafted Ridder offers something and if not they get Caleb Williams/Drake Maye/Others.

I doubt Daboll, or most HCs worth their weight in salt, are thinking of how they can buy themselves mulligans by juggling QBs. Yeah, it’s super simple to “just draft a QB” yet year after year there are franchises looking for new quarterbacks. It isn’t that easy or that simple.

Again, I never said to pay Jones a ton of money. I said he’d be stupid to take a deal where the worst veteran starters in the league are making 150% of the AAV. 

[Trojan]

2 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

How do the Saints / Steelers QB situations currently look using that approach? 

Steelers looks like Daniel Jones a couple years ago with 4 more years of team control and the Saints didn't draft anyone. Mickey Loomis job isn't at risk either, but maybe he should have taken Jordan Love over Ceasar Ruiz if he was going that style plan as that was his opportunity. Steelers get to afford someone like TJ Watt because they aren't paying someone like Daniel Jones an insane market rate QB deal.

[NYRaider]

Just now, Trojan said:

Steelers looks like Daniel Jones a couple years ago with 4 more years of team control and the Saints didn't draft anyone. Mickey Loomis job isn't at risk either, but maybe he should have taken Jordan Love over Ceasar Ruiz if he was going that style plan as that was his opportunity. Steelers get to afford someone like TJ Watt because they aren't paying someone like Daniel Jones an insane market rate QB deal.

The Giants can always potentially just use the franchise tag on DJ to see if he takes another leap before they commit to him long term. DJ's the leader in the locker room and he took a step forward this season, I don't think you just dump him for journeymen level QBs that have proven to be bad starters because of the $$$. 

[NYRaider]

7 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

I doubt Daboll, or most HCs worth their weight in salt, are thinking of how they can buy themselves mulligans by juggling QBs. Yeah, it’s super simple to “just draft a QB” yet year after year there are franchises looking for new quarterbacks. It isn’t that easy or that simple.

Again, I never said to pay Jones a ton of money. I said he’d be stupid to take a deal where the worst veteran starters in the league are making 150% of the AAV. 

He's reportedly seeking like $33M APY, which is a lot, but not when you consider that Burrow, Hurts, etc. could all easily get over $50M APY this offseason. 

[SmittyBacall]

Am I the only one who actually likes Daniel Jones? I think he’s franchise material.

[NYRaider]

3 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Am I the only one who actually likes Daniel Jones? I think he’s franchise material.

I like him as well, I just think there's some risk involved if you're going to give him a big extension. 

[minutemancl]

Is a 4-5 million dollar difference in AAV enough to keep you from keeping Daniel Jones if you like him? Like, his absolute floor in AAV is probably the franchise tag number- $32 mill. I don't think he could be had anywhere for less than that. So if the Giants are at let's say 33, and Jones and co want 37, do you let him walk at that?

Honestly, I think the Jones contract comes down to real years, not actual AAV or total value. Even if the Giants pay him $40 million a year, if they can get out after 2 years, it will be a good deal for the team.

I like Jones. I do not think he is, or even can ever be, a gamechanging QB up there with the best guys like Mahomes, Allen, Burrow. Maybe at his absolute best, in a great situation, he could possibly be in that next tier of guys for a year or 2, but I don't see him ever getting into that tier consistently. However, you have to keep him. The alternatives are too bad/too cost prohibitive. We are picking 25th, have too many other holes on the roster, are going to be unable to move up for a top QB in the draft, etc. You still need to evaluate the rest of your roster, and he had a good year in 2022. Like objectively, a good year. The only way a Daniel Jones contract can set the franchise back is if we do a good job building the rest of the roster over the next 2 years, he holds the team back, and we still have to pay him $30-40 mill a year. That's why being able to get out after 2-3 years will be the most important aspect. He's a good QB for the Giants team right now. I don't know if he will be what you want/need in a few years.

[minutemancl]

The other important thing someone brought up- after Jones gets paid, and Lamar, Burrow, and Hurts get paid, Jones will most likely be between 13-15 in terms of QB contract AAV. Honestly, that sounds about right.

[Forge]

On 2/6/2023 at 7:43 PM, SmittyBacall said:

Am I the only one who actually likes Daniel Jones? I think he’s franchise material.

I assumed that he had a second gear that we hadn't seen yet before this season and had argued in one of the Baker threads that we hadn't really seen what he could do because of the situation around him,  but I'm not sure I'd really go all in yet on the Daniel Jones thing. I don't know how sustainable this offense was this year, and I still want to see him with good weapons to see what he looks like and see if he has that next gear. Can he play up to the weapons around him if given really receiving talent? 

The biggest thing for him though that really shows he may have turned a corner though is the turnovers. For 2 years, he was a turnover machine. 12 INTs and 19 fumbles his rookie year....in only 12 games lol. The next year, 10 and 10. Now we've moved into really good areas where he's actually good at protecting the ball. 7 and 5 interceptions for sub 2% int rates the last two years (1.9 and 1.1, respectively) and 13 total fumbles the last two years. If he's going to do that, I see no reason that he's not at least a mid tier QB. Not sure I want to pay those guys, but that's a different conversation. 

[MWil23]

On 2/6/2023 at 10:43 PM, SmittyBacall said:

Am I the only one who actually likes Daniel Jones? I think he’s franchise material.

I view him more in the tier about being a nice bridge guy. He's not going to lose you games assuming he continues his streak of not turning it over, and he's smart and athletic. Kinda gives me some young Alex Smith vibes but maybe not as accurate.

If I'm a team like the Saints, Titans, Jets, or Bucs, I'm bringing him in for a 2-3 year period until I figure out if he's going to get better or I find my guy.

[Trojan]

Every other mid-tier type QB getting market deals has their team looking to move on. Teams eventually will flood the market with mid ones and establish a lower mid tier salary. Maybe the NFL needs to do another tier of comp pick at the end of the second for 100mil deals so teams are more willing to let a Daniel Jones-tier QB hit FA.