Upcoming QB Contracts...

[minutemancl]

3 minutes ago, Danger said:

But it's not a long term deal. It's 1 year and like what... $32M?

Let him be someone elses problem for that price. 

Or just tag him.

What would be your walk away number for Daniel Jones in AAV?

[Danger]

Just now, minutemancl said:

What would be your walk away number for Daniel Jones in AAV?

Even if we're high balling him. Right now that's the ABSOLUTE highest I can see him getting paid. But that's assuming you're confident in him to continue to improve and you don't feel he's already peaked.

[minutemancl]

1 minute ago, Danger said:

Even if we're high balling him. Right now that's the ABSOLUTE highest I can see him getting paid. But that's assuming you're confident in him to continue to improve and you don't feel he's already peaked.

My thing is that, even if he made $37 mill AAV, that is only 2 spots higher on that list. And Lamar, Burrow, Hurts, and Herbert are all getting paid very soon, which will move him down to the 13-15 range. That feels about right to me. I think he will end up in $37 mill AAV range, and I honestly think that is fine, as long as the Giants can get out of it after 2-3 years.

I think my walk away number, if I'm the Giants, would be $40 AAV. If he wants that, he has to compromise on way less guaranteed money. And if he doesn't, then we tag him.

[mtmmike]

Everyone will go north of leshaun Because they are all better.

Edited February 9, 2023 by mtmmike
omittion

[BobbyPhil1781]

Just had a conversation with someone about this and a question came up neither of us could answer.

What's to stop a team from giving someone a $1 contract and a massive bonus every year to avoid cap hits? There has to be a policy in place to prevent this from happening

[AZ_Eaglesfan]

5 minutes ago, BobbyPhil1781 said:

Just had a conversation with someone about this and a question came up neither of us could answer.

What's to stop a team from giving someone a $1 contract and a massive bonus every year to avoid cap hits? There has to be a policy in place to prevent this from happening

You realize signing bonuses are counted against the cap correct?

[Soko]

33 minutes ago, minutemancl said:

My thing is that, even if he made $37 mill AAV, that is only 2 spots higher on that list. And Lamar, Burrow, Hurts, and Herbert are all getting paid very soon, which will move him down to the 13-15 range. That feels about right to me. I think he will end up in $37 mill AAV range, and I honestly think that is fine, as long as the Giants can get out of it after 2-3 years.

I think my walk away number, if I'm the Giants, would be $40 AAV. If he wants that, he has to compromise on way less guaranteed money. And if he doesn't, then we tag him.

Yeah, if he’s worth it to you at $33M, then he’s worth it at $37M. You either believe in him or you don’t. If you think he’s going to continue to get better in a supportive offense, then a few million on the top isn’t really that big a deal. If you think he’s a bust, then you’re overpaying at $33M too. 

I get that there has to be some sort of realistic cutoff, but it’s either really high or it’s really low. I’m in the latter group, factoring in the risk there, but it’s more of a binary call than it is something you can play down the middle.

[BobbyPhil1781]

23 minutes ago, AZ_Eaglesfan said:

You realize signing bonuses are counted against the cap correct?

Well, whatever bonus doesn't count against the cap. As I said earlier, I'm very stupid with contracts and the jargon. I just understand that when contracts are restructured, they open up cap space by giving bonuses. Right?

[Danger]

15 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

Yeah, if he’s worth it to you at $33M, then he’s worth it at $37M. You either believe in him or you don’t. If you think he’s going to continue to get better in a supportive offense, then a few million on the top isn’t really that big a deal. If you think he’s a bust, then you’re overpaying at $33M too. 

I get that there has to be some sort of realistic cutoff, but it’s either really high or it’s really low. I’m in the latter group, factoring in the risk there, but it’s more of a binary call than it is something you can play down the middle.

What I think DJ is really worth based on the current market?

$24M per?

[Danger]

1 minute ago, BobbyPhil1781 said:

Well, whatever bonus doesn't count against the cap. As I said earlier, I'm very stupid with contracts and the jargon. I just understand that when contracts are restructured, they open up cap space by giving bonuses. Right?

It basically gets refunded towards subsequent seasons if it's an unrealized bonus or incentive.

[Jakuvious]

2 minutes ago, BobbyPhil1781 said:

Well, whatever bonus doesn't count against the cap. As I said earlier, I'm very stupid with contracts and the jargon. I just understand that when contracts are restructured, they open up cap space by giving bonuses. Right?

All money paid to a player by a team hits the cap at some point. It just shuffles money around. Salary hits in the year its paid. $30M salary in 2023 is $30M in cap hit in 2023. Signing bonus is paid up front but hits the cap over the term of the deal. $30M signing bonus on a 5 year deal is 5 years of $6M cap hits.

[Soko]

3 minutes ago, Danger said:

What I think DJ is really worth based on the current market?

$24M per?

That’s probably ballpark accurate. Unfortunately for NY, he’s got them in a tougher spot. 

Smartest thing they can do is front load the crap out of a deal that’ll pay him really well early on, then cut loose if they need to. I don’t think he’s got enough leverage to negotiate above that.

[BobbyPhil1781]

8 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

All money paid to a player by a team hits the cap at some point. It just shuffles money around. Salary hits in the year its paid. $30M salary in 2023 is $30M in cap hit in 2023. Signing bonus is paid up front but hits the cap over the term of the deal. $30M signing bonus on a 5 year deal is 5 years of $6M cap hits.

Gotcha. Wasn't aware of this and it makes sense. Is that bonus always distributed equally like in the scenario you presented?

[Jakuvious]

12 hours ago, BobbyPhil1781 said:

Gotcha. Wasn't aware of this and it makes sense. Is that bonus always distributed equally like in the scenario you presented?

If it is a signing bonus, yes. In terms of actual money, signing bonus is basically paid the second the player signs the contract. For cap, it's distributed over the length of the contract up to 5 years. So that same $30M signing bonus over a 3 year deal would be a $10M cap hit each year. While a $30M signing bonus on a 7 year deal (if for some reason someone did that) would still be $6M per year over the first 5 years.

There is, on the other hand, a roster bonus, which hits more akin to salary for salary cap purposes, but is paid out to the player differently. A $18M salary would pay out $1M each week of the season as long as that player is on the roster. But sometimes teams will instead do roster bonuses, so if you're on the roster on March 1st you'll just get that whole $18M then. Either way, that whole total hits the cap that year, mostly just changes when the player is paid. A roster bonus also makes it less likely for a player to get cut after that date is passed. And then workout bonuses are similar but pay out based on the player participating in offseason programs. That's usually just a minor incentive to get vets in the door for camp and such. Josh Allen has a $500k workout bonus this offseason. Which is kind of just...whatever, really. But sure, why not?

 

Signing bonuses are the primary method teams use to move money around, though. When you see conversations about teams messing with the cap, void years, restructures, etc., that is almost always referring to signing bonuses. So let's say I'm the Chiefs GM. I owe Patrick Mahomes $40M this year. Roughly. We have a cap hit on top of that of about $6M from the signing bonus we gave him a few years back as well. But this year, I owe Mahomes $40M. Mahomes probably doesn't really care how he gets that $40M. But as the GM, I really do, because the specifics of how that is paid impacts my cap. I can take the $40M hit this year. Or, I can change as much of that $40M as I want to a signing bonus instead. Mahomes gets paid up front, so he doesn't really give a damn. But I can make that $40M paid over 5 years, have more money this year at the cost of an $8M cap hit each of the next 5 years. In some senses, this is always the right thing to do. Cap goes up, so that money is technically worth more now than it will be next year. If I don't use it I can roll it over anyway. But it can snowball. We chose last year not to do this with Mahomes's deal to let things settle a bit. But in theory we could do this every year of his 10 year contract. Keep pushing money out. But eventually we'd owe him like $90M on the cap or something like that one year, and you just can't compete at that point.

And then you get to the kind of crap the Eagles do. Which is taking this a step further, basically, and using signing bonuses to stretch the money out into fake years. Javon Hargrave signed a 3 year deal, for 2020, 2021, and 2022. He is a free agent this offseason. But, Philly wanted his cap hits spread out even further. So they added void years into 2023, 2024, and later into 2025. These are fake years. Hargrave will not be an Eagle those years unless he signs an entirely new deal. He has no salary those years, his contract stipulates that he is a free agent this offseason (literally voids one day after the superbowl.) But the years are written into the contract as if they do exist, they'll just be canceled. So when they gave Hargrave a $12M signing bonus on a 3 year deal, that should be $4M each year. But the two fake years made it so it was more like $2.4M over 5 years. And then they made his 2021 salary into more signing bonus, taking another $12M and stretching it over another 5 years, for $2.4M more over that time. Once his contract voids, everything that remains accelerates immediately. So anything left hits the cap this offseason. So he signed a 3 year deal for $39M, but they only paid $27M of that in those 3 years, so the fake years will result in them owing $12M for him in cap next year....even if he's on another team. Even if he retires, actually.

And this spirals and gets even more complicated when you get to like, Fletcher Cox or Jason Kelce's deals....but we won't get into that. Like, they were paying for two separate Fletcher Cox contracts at once this year. Could even be three next year if they get real ambitious. It's gross to interpret.

 

Ultimately, all most people need to know is, signing bonuses allow teams to pay players now but pay for them on the cap later, whether this is good or not depends on how far you go and who you ask, and ultimately, every cent that is given to a player by a team must hit the cap...eventually.

[BobbyPhil1781]

5 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

If it is a signing bonus, yes. In terms of actual money, signing bonus is basically paid the second the player signs the contract. For cap, it's distributed over the length of the contract up to 5 years. So that same $30M signing bonus over a 3 year deal would be a $10M cap hit each year. While a $30M signing bonus on a 7 year deal (if for some reason someone did that) would still be $6M per year over the first 5 years.

There is, on the other hand, a roster bonus, which hits more akin to salary for salary cap purposes, but is paid out to the player differently. A $18M salary would pay out $1M each week of the season as long as that player is on the roster. But sometimes teams will instead do roster bonuses, so if you're on the roster on March 1st you'll just get that whole $18M then. Either way, that whole total hits the cap that year, mostly just changes when the player is paid. A roster bonus also makes it less likely for a player to get cut after that date is passed. And then workout bonuses are similar but pay out based on the player participating in offseason programs. That's usually just a minor incentive to get vets in the door for camp and such. Josh Allen has a $500k workout bonus this offseason. Which is kind of just...whatever, really. But sure, why not?

 

Signing bonuses are the primary method teams use to move money around, though. When you see conversations about teams messing with the cap, void years, restructures, etc., that is almost always referring to signing bonuses. So let's say I'm the Chiefs GM. I owe Patrick Mahomes $40M this year. Roughly. We have a cap hit on top of that of about $6M from the signing bonus we gave him a few years back as well. But this year, I owe Mahomes $40M. Mahomes probably doesn't really care how he gets that $40M. But as the GM, I really do, because the specifics of how that is paid impacts my cap. I can take the $40M hit this year. Or, I can change as much of that $40M as I want to a signing bonus instead. Mahomes gets paid up front, so he doesn't really give a damn. But I can make that $40M paid over 5 years, have more money this year at the cost of an $8M cap hit each of the next 5 years. In some senses, this is always the right thing to do. Cap goes up, so that money is technically worth more now than it will be next year. If I don't use it I can roll it over anyway. But it can snowball. We chose last year not to do this with Mahomes's deal to let things settle a bit. But in theory we could do this every year of his 10 year contract. Keep pushing money out. But eventually we'd owe him like $90M on the cap or something like that one year, and you just can't compete at that point.

And then you get to the kind of crap the Eagles do. Which is taking this a step further, basically, and using signing bonuses to stretch the money out into fake years. Javon Hargrave signed a 3 year deal, for 2020, 2021, and 2022. He is a free agent this offseason. But, Philly wanted his cap hits spread out even further. So they added void years into 2023, 2024, and later into 2025. These are fake years. Hargrave will not be an Eagle those years unless he signs an entirely new deal. He has no salary those years, his contract stipulates that he is a free agent this offseason (literally voids one day after the superbowl.) But the years are written into the contract as if they do exist, they'll just be canceled. So when they gave Hargrave a $12M signing bonus on a 3 year deal, that should be $4M each year. But the two fake years made it so it was more like $2.4M over 5 years. And then they made his 2021 salary into more signing bonus, taking another $12M and stretching it over another 5 years, for $2.4M more over that time. Once his contract voids, everything that remains accelerates immediately. So anything left hits the cap this offseason. So he signed a 3 year deal for $39M, but they only paid $27M of that in those 3 years, so the fake years will result in them owing $12M for him in cap next year....even if he's on another team. Even if he retires, actually.

And this spirals and gets even more complicated when you get to like, Fletcher Cox or Jason Kelce's deals....but we won't get into that. Like, they were paying for two separate Fletcher Cox contracts at once this year. Could even be three next year if they get real ambitious. It's gross to interpret.

 

Ultimately, all most people need to know is, signing bonuses allow teams to pay players now but pay for them on the cap later, whether this is good or not depends on how far you go and who you ask, and ultimately, every cent that is given to a player by a team must hit the cap...eventually.

Thanks for taking the time to type all of this out. It makes a ton more sense now. Hopefully w/ all those voided years, they don't start becoming a trend where we see a "Bobby Bonilla Day" in the NFL lol. In reality though, that's wild that teams will do that in the NFL w/ the salary cap actually being a thing which it isn't in baseball. This was a lot to take in so thanks for not putting more out there w/ Cox's deal lol. That would be very overwhelming for people like me who are really cap stupid. I really just thought bonuses were somehow a way to avoid the cap altogether which made no sense but it's the most common way to free up space.