The 2023 Free Agency Game

[dll2000]

41 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

That’s the hang up with him though - he has never stayed healthy, and even when he has he’s only occasionally played up to his potential. He’s played over 13 games just once, in 2022 - a year in which he had only 0.5 more sacks than me. He’s had more bad seasons statistically than good ones at this point. In 2 of the last 3 years he’s played more than 10 games and had less than 2 sacks. Even with sacks being a flawed measure of ability, that’s bad. Like, AQM levels of bad.

I want nothing to do with Marcus Davenport at that $23M number. Hell, I don’t want anything to do with Davenport at even 30% of that number unless it’s on a 1 year prove it deal, and that’s not gonna land him anyway. After 5 seasons he is what he is for me - an injury prone underachiever. Didn’t we just finish purging the roster of those types of guys? 

I don't really disagree with you, but I like to argue and procrastinate form work, so here it goes.

  I know it is huge gamble.  If it wasn't he would be staying in NO.   Young players on FA are flawed in some way.   But it also has a potential payoff.   You don't get young, big, stud pass rushers entering their prime on open market.   

If he is as you say he won't cost that much.   He got benched at end of year. 

  I had to play by rules of the game and that was number I had to work with.  

I watched this guy in college and thought it was madness he went in first.   Much less traded for.   Everyone knew he was a project player.   Or should have known.  He was raw talent - not unlike Robinson is a project.   So for a project I am only looking at later years, not the early ones.

To me, it seemed light came on in 2021, anyone would have taken him following that year.   If you watch his highlights from 2021 he is an absolute monster at his best.   He is strong as a bear.   

Watch how many times in below video he walks an OL back to QB.  Look how many times he dumps an OL on his butt.    Look at it!  That is power and strength you can't teach.  It is rare.  

   

 

Regular Season

Playoffs

					Games		Def Interceptions					Fumbles						Tackles
Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Int	Yds	TD	Lng	PD	FF	Fmb	FR	Yds	TD	Sk	Comb	Solo	Ast	TFL	QBHits	Sfty	AV
Career					63	32	0	0	0	0	4	7	0	1	1	0	21.5	142	78	64	25	60		19
2018	22	NOR	DE	92	13	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	4.5	22	12	10	6	12		1
2019	23	NOR	RDE	92	13	13			0			3	0	0	0	0	6.0	31	15	16	5	16		6
2020	24	NOR	DE	92	11	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	1.5	21	12	9	3	8		1
2021	25	NOR	RDE	92	11	9			0			3	0	1	1	0	9.0	39	23	16	9	16		6
2022	26	NOR	DE	92	15	9			0			0	0	0	0	0	0.5	29	16	13	2	8		5

 

Thing is, I don't know why he was then so unproductive in 2022 after a much better 2021.  His arrow should have kept going up.    Maybe he was playing through injury.   Maybe he was dogging it.    I don't know.   

He got better in 2019 than 2018 and then regressed, but got better again in 2021 and then regressed.   

I googled it and can't figure out why.  Only thing I can see is he had finger amputated in offseason.   That may have stopped him from working out or something and he came into year out of shape.     

You have to be able to do some background.   Get info from teammates and coaches and what not.   Get whole story on the guy.   I have limited info to go on.

A good thing to note - his position coach is now DC is in Atlanta and Atlanta has money.  This guy should know him inside and out and he spent everyday working with him.   If Atlanta makes an offer for Davenport that will be very telling.

If Atlanta and NO want no part of him, I probably pass as well.  At nearly any price.

You have to take some risks.   Signing all journeyman in FA is going to mean little. 

 Davenport has upside and plays a key position.

[dll2000]

Do I think Poles goes after Davenport?

No.

I don't think he goes after Barkley either.

I won't be broken up about either.  

 

[Ty21]

47 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

You have to take some risks.

I’m just trying to wrap my head around you valuing him at $23m a year? You’re in love with his highlights from years ago and acknowledge his fall off, acknowledge that he’s never met his assumed production ability. 

[dll2000]

41 minutes ago, Ty21 said:

I’m just trying to wrap my head around you valuing him at $23m a year? You’re in love with his highlights from years ago and acknowledge his fall off, acknowledge that he’s never met his assumed production ability. 

23M is number I was given to work with for the above game.   I couldn't give my own number.

I'd give him a 2 year deal for a decent chunk of change and see what happens.  Maybe 2nd year is voidable if I can get away with it.   

Allows him to hit FA again in his prime and maybe get a huge payday if he plays well.   I don't know that anyone is giving him giant deal with lots of years given he can't stay on field.