Leisher's 2023 Packers mock draft with Rodger's and Bak trades. Shorter version.

[jleisher]

Aaron Rodgers to Seahawks for picks # 5, #20, #37.

 

Outside FA's:

Zach Allen DE/Edge 4yrs $8m 40% cap hit $5.6m.  Lowry's replacement with Wyatt replaces Reed.

Taylor Heinicke QB 4yrs $6m 40% cap hit $4.2m.  Veteran backup for Love.

#5.  Trade down. With LVR for picks #7 and #70.

#7.  Packers select:

Paris Johnson Jr. T Ohio State

PASS BLOCKING:		84%
RUN BLOCKING:		92%

 

• Super smart academically - who is a natural leader both on the field and in the locker room.
• Finishes and doesn't quit; competitor with a positive attitude and leadership traits that coaches admire.
• Fires off the snap quickly, and Johnson shows the flexibility to get out and seal on reach blocks. He’s at his best, however, in the phone booth.
• Johnson flashes power and nastiness in the run game, able to win at the point of attack and athletic enough to get out as a pulling blocker before landing blocks on the move at the second level.
• Plays with appropriate wide base and intelligence, instincts, and agility to seal the edge. Aggressive extending with power to punch and looks comfortable in space.
• Has a strong, flexible core, and the ability to absorb and anchor against the bull rush as a pass protector.
• Has Improved footwork and hand placement significantly during college career showing ability to be coached.
• Has an impressive understanding of stunts and delayed blitzes.
• Five-star recruit with elite athleticism and movement skills - has the foot speed to stay with the best edge rushers.
• Power to move opponents in the run game.
• Reliable and consistent grip and core strength
• Outstanding lateral agility and athleticism to mirror defenders.

 

#15.  Packers select:

Peter Skoronski T/G Northwestern

PASS BLOCKING:		100%
RUN BLOCKING:		92%

 

• Exceptional athleticism
• High football intelligence
• Natural leader with high work ethic
• Crisp hand technique and pass sets
• Firm anchor and dynamic base in protection
• Effective vertical movement on double teams
• Ability to string out point of attack horizontally.
• Projects well to gap and power concepts

 

#20.  Packers select:

Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR Ohio St.

QB RATING WHEN TARGETED:	132.1
HANDS:		82%
SHORT RECEIVING:		84%
INTERMEDIATE ROUTES:		94%
DEEP THREAT:		92%
BLOCKING:		66%

 

• Super productive slot receiver who Led Ohio state in receptions and yardage in 2021 despite playing officially as the third receiver behind Olave and Garret Wilson
• Smooth hips with outstanding agility who is equally adept at moving laterally as vertically.
• Has outstanding soft hands demonstrated by his impressive 141.8 QB rating when targeted in 2021.
• Often used on deep routes, getting separation down the sideline or over the middle on crossing routes by extending his arms rather than pure speed.
• Does a nice job locating and tracking deep passes and is a legitimate vertical threat. Willing to go up and attack the ball.
• Has the strong hands any NFL wide receiver coach and quarterback would covet. Tracks the deep ball over either shoulder as well as bringing in passes fluidly without breaking stride downfield.
• Has a knack for getting open and is a quarterback's best friend - passers just need to toss the ball in his area and he'll come down with it.
• Has enough straight-line speed and takes advantage of open seams when his quarterback is on target.
• Good effort and technique as a blocker for his size. Can beat the press with elusiveness or physical contact. Runs elite crisp routes with sharp cuts.
• Has good body strength to squirm out of tackles with the coordination to maneuver his frame between defenders.

 

My logic of these top 3 picks.

Johnson and Skoronski form the new left side of the offensive line.  Packer's line will be, Johnson, Skoronski, Tom, Jenkins and Nijman.  Depth players will be, Myers, Runyan, Jones and Walker.  As for Smith-Njigba, takes over for Cobb in the slot, with Watson and Doubs manning the outside.  

 

#37.  Packers select:

Dalton Kincaid TE Utah

QB RATING WHEN TARGETED:	122.8
HANDS:		92%
SHORT RECEIVING:		94%
INTERMEDIATE ROUTES:		96%
DEEP THREAT:		96%
BLOCKING:		63%

 

• Super productive TE who led the nation with 70 receptions and 890 yards - looks and plays like a receiver.
• Kincaid is a former basketball player who plays with smoothness and balance and shows a knack for setting up defensive backs.
• Tracks the ball well on intermediate routes - is rarely caught out of position.
• Is explosive off the line and has the deep speed to create some separation against safeties.
• Runs perfect routes and has an impressive catch radius.
• He has soft hands and uses his frame effectively to shield defenders, making him a major threat in the red zone. Kincaid can also turn up field and break a tackle.
• A lean athlete with obvious upside - flashes the ability to make the outstanding catch.
• Quick athlete and is usually sure handed as a receiver. Much-improved route runner, creating space in coverage.
• Decent strength and effort to run through arm tackles.

 

#45.  Packers select:

Darnell Washington TE Georgia

QB RATING WHEN TARGETED:	111.2
HANDS:		72%
SHORT RECEIVING:		86%
INTERMEDIATE ROUTES:		89%
DEEP THREAT:		79%
BLOCKING:		81%

 

• Washington is a huge tight end standing 6-7 and weighing in at 270lbs - who has the power and drive-blocking ability of a tackle.
• As a blocker Washington is elite, he stands out as elite as a run blocker, and you could easily mistake him for a seasoned pulling guard.
• As a pass blocker he is outstanding and easily handles blitzing LBs on the edge. In the 72 instances when he was used strictly in pass protection, he didn't give up a single pressure.
• Elite catch radius and has impressive soft strong hands to help pull down errant passes.
• He's a powerful open-field runner with agility, and surprising quickness and speed given his size.
• Knee-bend and technique are good, and Washington shows decent power when his hands hit the target.
• His long arms allow him to play bigger even bigger than his size, which is scary, and he has a frame that can carry even more weight.
• He’s a coordinated hands catcher who does a nice job digging out low throws. He’s very good with the ball in his hands, a violent runner after the catch, and often able to fend off defenders with a straight arm.
• Washington has a tapered build and strong hands, ripping the ball back with ease when defensive backs manage to get a hold of it.
• He’s very good in contested-catch situations, using his frame effectively to make plays facing the quarterback. He also shows a knack for high pointing the ball, consistently outmuscling defensive backs.

 

My logic on my second-round picks.  I have Kincaid as my #1 TE with Washington at #3.  To get two of the top 4 TE's in the second round is great.  Should be the #1 and #2 TE with Deguara holding onto the #3 spot.  Packers can give Austin Allen and Tyler Davis a chance at the #4 spot, or they could resign Lewis.  An outside veteran could also be in play or another draft pick.

#70.  Packers select:

Derick Hall Edge Auburn

TACKLING:		76%
PASS RUSH:		95%
RUN DEFENSE:		71%
COVERAGE:		79%

 

• Hall can be used as a rangy run defender inside, instinctive when it comes to locating the ball with the quickness to get to it before blockers can react at the second level.
• He has the strong core and powerful hands to shed blockers, and Hall shows excellent instincts with the ability to quickly locate the ball.
• He’s quick to react and locate the ball, and he shows enough speed to succeed in backside pursuit. He plays with excellent balance and a strong, flexible core, rarely ending up on the ground.
• He locates the ball quickly, and he shows good instincts when dropping into zone coverage.
• He has the classic frame and long arms with some explosion, power, and ability to close.
• Hall can move laterally and chase in pursuit. A tough, violent tackler with a non-stop motor, he also shows good awareness when dropping into coverage.

 

#78.  Packers select:

Jordan Battle S Alabama

QB RATING WHEN TARGETED:	77.7
TACKLING:		86%
RUN DEFENSE:		79%
COVERAGE:		93%
ZONE:		84%
MAN/PRESS:		89%

 

• Physical safety that has the perfect size for the strong size position - brilliant in the box with linebacker like skills
• A natural leader of the Alabama defense and possess a high football IQ with great instincts.
• Smooth hips and fluid in coverage
• Scares the hell out of smaller receivers over the middle - regularly blows them up with big hits.
• In 2021 he was fantastic in coverage - excelling in man to man. Allowed only 111 yds when targeted all season.
• Has the speed to stay with receivers deep and doesn't allow much of a cushion.
• Does a very good job of reading the eyes of the quarterback and reacting with good field awareness and ball skills.
• Aware in the red zone, stays on the backline to take away fade throws. Capable of making quarterbacks pay for late throws.
• Tough and scrappy with forceful nature to be physical at all levels of the field. Has good bulk on his frame to be aggressive in run support.
• Has good body control and balance to redirect and break down in the open field.
• Savvy using his hands to get to the ball without drawing flags. Willing tackler and high-effort leader.

 

Logic on my 3rd round picks.  Hall offers OLB/Edge depth, gives the Packers 4 stand up rushers on the outside, with Gray, Smith, and Enagbare.  Battle is a smart physical safety.  As well as being a leader.  Could be Amos's replacement.

 

#116.  Packers select:

Keon White DE/Edge Georgia Tech.  

TACKLING:		67%
PASS RUSH:		82%
RUN DEFENSE:		88%

 

• His motor is excellent, and he’s quick to locate the ball and make plays against the run.
• Made Bruce Feldman's Freak's List - ranked #20. He wrote "White was a devastating player for Old Dominion in 2019, making 19 TFLs. He was 265 then. He transferred to Tech, but then suffered an ankle injury that sidelined him. He’s now 6-4, 290, and primed to be a problem for ACC teams. White has hit 21 mph despite being almost 300 pounds. He also has vertical-jumped 32 inches and done 38 reps of 225 on the bench press."
• White has decent enough flexibility to bend the edge, and White shows a good closing burst.
• Tall, solid frame with adequate length and has done a nice job losing the bad weight and firming his body.
• He has a lethal spin move and the pure speed to close quickly.
• White has an excellent feel for working off blockers and knowing how and when to counter as the play goes on.
• He’s a high-motor player, and he shows good enough hand use, as well as a tight spin move, to win as an edge rusher.

 

4th round pick logic.  Adds depth to the defensive line, with Allen, Clark and Wyatt the starters.

 

With the selections of Johnson and Skoronski, Packer's trade Bak and pick #171 to Titan's for picks #149, #230 and 2024 5th round pick.

149.  Packers select:

Xavier Hutchinson WR Iowa State. 

QB RATING WHEN TARGETED:	96.8
HANDS:		87%
SHORT RECEIVING:		92%
INTERMEDIATE ROUTES:		96%
DEEP THREAT:		96%
BLOCKING:		68%

 

• Has the size, length, and strength to defeat press jams. Can make the spectacular catch. A decent open-field runner with some agility and the ability to break tackles.
• Has long arms to stiff-arm defensive backs in the open field. Willing to lower his pads to run through tackles for extra yardage. Goes over the middle, can spin out of tackles, and take the big hit.
• Does an excellent job track the ball deep in the air - has good positional sense and is aware of other players on the field.
• Classic wide receiver with the size and physicality to play outside (played 70% college snaps out wide and 30% in the slot)
• Physical player able to get off press coverage to release up the sideline or position himself inside the cornerback on slants and crossing routes.
• Excellent hands catcher who creates an excellent catch radius. Impressive diving catcher and rarely suffers from concentration drops.
• He’s also a catch-and-run threat, a creative runner who has good vision in the open field; he’ll be an option to return kicks as well.
• Often used on deep routes, getting separation down the sideline or over the middle on crossing routes by extending his arms rather than pure speed.
• Runs disciplined crisp routes and is able to avoid the jam at the line of scrimmage.
• He’s a fluid athlete with good short-area quickness.

 

#151.  Packers select:

Deuce Vaughn RB Kansas St. 

RUSHING:		90%
BREAK TACKLES:		56%
RECEIVING/HANDS:		81%
PASS BLOCKING:		18%
RUN BLOCKING:		58%

 

• Flashes initial burst and good lateral quickness to sidestep defenders or bounce runs outside with very good foot quickness. Displays very good feel as an inside and outside runner with above average vision to make sharp cuts - good patience· and footwork to pick through defenses.
• He’s decisive once Vaughn locates a hole and gets through quickly. His ability to accelerate and his good top-end speed allow him to outrun angles, and he has the quickness and lateral agility to make defenders miss in space.
• His competitiveness and knack for high pointing the ball allow him to play bigger than his size.
• Vaughn is elite as a receiver. He runs routes as well as most receivers and has natural hands, snatching the ball away from his body.
• Has the feet and feel running between the tackles and in the open field. Vaughn has very good vision and patience to pick through defenses.
• Once he plants his foot, he’s explosive moving up field, and his 0-to-60 acceleration is enough to catch defenses off-guard.

5th round picks logic.  Hutchinson replaces Lazard in the WR group.  Vaughn is a RS and gadget player in the backfield.  Ends up #3 or #4 RB.

 

#225.  Packers select:

SirVocea Dennis LB Pittsburgh

TACKLING:		84%
PASS RUSH:		74%
RUN DEFENSE:		84%
COVERAGE:		73%

 

• Dennis has an explosive first step and has the fluidity, flexibility and core strength to chase through traffic and make plays.
• He’s a sure and violent wrap-up tackler with sideline-to-sideline range. He’s an excellent tackler in space, showing loose hips and the ability to break down and contain runners.
• Reads quarterbacks eyes and reacts quickly to targets in zone coverage.
• Work in progress as a pass rusher, with up field burst and flexibility to dip and scrape.
• In coverage, Dennis shows excellent awareness and anticipation when dropping back into zone, and he has the fluidity and speed to run with most tight ends over the middle.
• Flashes closing speed and agility to reach passers from the blind side or up the middle before they can escape.

 

#230.  Packers select:

Jerrod Clark NT Coastal Carolina

TACKLING:		54%
PASS RUSH:		67%
RUN DEFENSE:		67%

 

• Delivers a strong punch and uses his hands to shed blocks to make plays in the hole or outside the box. Uses lower-body strength to anchor inside.
• Big-bodied rusher with very good upper-body strength. Strong and stout at the point of attack with the measurables to occupy multiple blockers.
• Strong tackler. Has good power in hands and can anchor, shed, and chase.
• Strong tackler. Has good power in hands and can anchor, shed, and chase.
• Clark can set the edge in the run game with his stout build and strong core, and Clark has the powerful arms to shed blockers.
• Flashes quick hands to slap away blocks, but too often gets caught in the hand-fighting at the line rather than quickly disengaging.

 

#244.  Packers select:

Payne Durham TE Purdue

QB RATING WHEN TARGETED:	117.2
HANDS:		83%
SHORT RECEIVING:		79%
INTERMEDIATE ROUTES:		84%
DEEP THREAT:		63%
BLOCKING:		55%

 

• Gets a quick release off the line. Dips his shoulder and shows some savvy as a route runner to avoid contact with defenders g to get into his route.
• A fluid mover capable of creating some separation over the middle of the field, Durham has the long arms and soft hands to provide a sizable catch radius.
• Durham has soft hands and uses his frame effectively to shield defenders, making him a major threat in the red zone. Durham can also turn upfield and break a tackle.
• Looks to get involved downfield and will block multiple defenders on a single play when he can. Understands his role as a blocker.
• Knee-bend and technique are good and he shows decent power when his hands hit the target.
• His long arms allow him to play bigger than his size, and he has a frame that can carry a little more weight.

 

#256.  Packers select.

Jartavius Martin DB Illinois

QB RATING WHEN TARGETED:	74.4
TACKLING:		91%
RUN DEFENSE:		86%
COVERAGE:		69%
ZONE:		66%
MAN/PRESS:		71%

 

• In the run game, he’s aggressive coming downhill and a sure tackler.
• Good strength to tackle. Plays with high energy and is a tough-minded overachiever.
• Extremely aggressive to come up and put his body in traffic to make tackles.
• He’s excellent in run support, a physical hitter who could also get a look at safety.
• Can track the ball downfield and gets his head around when playing in a trail position, and Martin shows excellent ball skills when breaking on a route. He’s a plus tackler in run support as well.
• Transitions well from coverage to close on the ball. Strong hands, quick reactions for the interceptions.

 

#259.  Packers select:

Antoine Green WR North Carolina

QB RATING WHEN TARGETED:	144.4
HANDS:		71%
SHORT RECEIVING:		71%
INTERMEDIATE ROUTES:		80%
DEEP THREAT:		80%
BLOCKING:		62%

 

• Does not have exceptional straight-line speed but takes advantage of open seams when his quarterback is on target.
• Green has strong hands and is extremely competitive, and Green has an innate sense of timing when it comes to elevating and high-pointing balls.
• He combines good speed with his size, and he accelerates off the line better than most big receivers.
• He’s broad-shouldered, long-limbed and a smooth athlete who showed the ability to make plays downfield.
• Has a knack for getting open and is a quarterback's best friend - passers just need to toss the ball in his area and he'll come down with it.
• Green tracks the ball well downfield and consistently runs under long throws.

 

Logic for 7th round picks.  Dennis is a steal at this point of the draft, replaces Barnes.  Clark adds depth with White, Slation and Slayton to the DL behind Allen, Clark and Wyatt.  Durham is the 4th TE, just behind Deguara.  Martin adds versatility in the backfield.  Green just might be the steal of all steals.  Packers WR core is now, Watson, Doubs, Smith-Njigba, Hutchinson, Touri and Green with maybe a cheap veteran.

[vegas492]

Might be the best one you've ever made.  Though that is a low bar to clear.

The Rodgers trade is still absurd.  But it is for funsies, so whatever.

I like the tackle first, and I get it.  I was shocked by Skow right after him, but you explained it nicely.  So okay.

Kindda loved the shiny new WR you too later.

Disliked taking two TE's right after that.  Should have done one and taken defense earlier.

Then I saw the Bakh trade.  Waaaaayyyyy too little.  I understand the why, it is the value that I questioned.

Do it again.  Trade Bakh for at least a second.  Draft an EDGE earlier.  Only take one TE.  Grab a vet in FA at TE to pair with a rookie, Deguara and Davis.  

[15412]

The whole thing is absurd.  Would have been more realistic if Bak would have been traded for the rights to Antonio Brown and then drafted nothing but a mix of OT's and TE's

[Sandy]

I like a lot of the players you took for us. At least one is definitely going to be in the mock I'm making later this week. Even some of the ones I'm less interested in wouldn't totally ruin my draft weekend (example: you took my two least favorite TEs of the ones projected to go in the first 90 picks or so. Kincaid does not fit our offense as a TE. Washington I could tolerate at that point, but anyone expecting him to be much more than a glorified sixth OL will be disappointed.

I don't see the Seahawks as interested in Rodgers. I also don't think they'd give that kind of return for him. Geno played at a legitimate Pro Bowl level this year and they were still just a Good team. Resigning Geno and using those three early picks on impact players would be a much better strategy for their future. 

Lastly, as Vegas mentioned, this return for Bakh is terrible. Even if we don't realize we want to trade him until after we've already drafted two in the first round, we have plenty of time to move him before round 4. Even if we did wait, we'd take 2024 picks instead.

[Gypsy1027]

Very thoughtful draft! I do believe some of your picks are a round too late -- example, Jordan Battle, Round Three, but you really hit on some of my favorite guys at tight end, running back and wide receiver.

 

[Old Guy]

I'm one of the few people who want to trade Bak on this sight, but the return for him is a joke. 

Seattle is going to re-sign Smith and two OT's in round 1? For a franchise known for finding great offensive linemen in round 4, gag me with a spoon.

Love the Keion White pick but I've seen him shooting up draft boards into round 1. 

Edited February 9, 2023 by Old Guy

[CWood21]

19 hours ago, vegas492 said:

The Rodgers trade is still absurd.  But it is for funsies, so whatever.

0% chance the Seahawks trade for Rodgers.

[triplejcubed3]

Don't foresee us drafting 3 tight ends, i like the Wide Receivers and Defensive players selected, but think we wouldn't go 2 first rounds picks on the O line. Green Bay typically finds the gems in the later rounds on these guys. Also Rodgers will be going to the Jets or Raiders in my opinion, i don't believe Seattle gives that much up for Rodgers not knowing how long he intends to play. 

[Billy86]

The Bakh trade may be far, far too little but it also offsets the fact that there is no chance in hell we will get what works out go basically 3 first rounders for Rodgers, especially from a Seattle after the season Geno just had. 

A much smaller note, but Heinecke is going to cost a bare minimum of $5-7mn/yr with the current QB market. You might get him for 1yr at $6mn, but not 2 and never even mind 4.

[VegasDan]

If we got Seattle's 1st round pick for AR I would be happy.  I think Vegas or NYJ will be our 2 trade partner choices.  Like improving our OL and this would set us up for some time. I really like the 2 TEs - you have a great receiving TE and one a great blocker.  Got a feeling that Washington is high on our draft target list given MLFs love for Lewis.  Would change the WR for RB Bilal. Would have liked to have seen a higher pick on a safety - but the talent is weak in this draft.