2023 off-season thread

[AnAngryAmerican]

We all knew this was coming, and that it would be Klis writing it. I’m just surprised it took the Walmarts a week to get it out there. 

https://www.9news.com/article/sports/nfl/denver-broncos/mike-klis/broncos-support-system-player-survey/73-09c92d90-5deb-4c3a-8f9c-2d65d4ca4426

I know he’s a mouthpiece and he trades access for favorable coverage but holy cow. That story read as if it is 100000000% written by team PR. Klis has no shame, he’s happy to just have a seat in the room. But this is almost as bad as the political media. Wow. Just wow. 

[Broncofan]

Well our first FA signing - I'm assuming it's league-min type deal, then it becomes a decent depth signing.

 

Why he's a decent vet-min signing:

-His blocking is near-elite as a WR

-He is an excellent ST player, gunner role would fit him well

-He's produced in very limited opps, he's not more than a 4th WR, gadget-type guy, but can burn D's that sell out for the run.    Won't lie, he made me nice $ one TNF with a 14-1 TD prop with a bunch of guys hurt that night vs. DAL, so I've always had a soft spot for him.   Make no mistake, this has more to do with our run game / ST support, but he's not a guy with absolutely zero talent.

Let's be clear, he has no business being a starter, but having a difference-making ST guy who can also fit a clear role for 6-8 plays a game, assuming it's a vet min deal, no problems whatsoever. 

Edited March 7, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

The other big news on our end - Dre'mont Jones hits the open market.    Won't lie, with Da'Ron Payne tagged, Jones becomes the top guy on the market for DE.   If they're testing the market, don't think they'll find he'll lack for suitors.

We also got 8M in rollover, so our cap situation got better. 

[BroncoBruin]

6 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

The other big news on our end - Dre'mont Jones hits the open market.    Won't lie, with Da'Ron Payne tagged, Jones becomes the top guy on the market for DE.   If they're testing the market, don't think they'll find he'll lack for suitors.

We also got 8M in rollover, so our cap situation got better. 

Yeah Dre’Mont is probably gone. The issue (one of the issues) with the tag is it forces you to account for that 19 million dollar cap hit immediately which limits flexibility. Sounds like they made an earnest effort to negotiate but he’s not gonna settle for 15 if he thinks he can get 20, and the Broncos aren’t comfortable at 20 (nor should they be).

Fair for both sides, I just wonder if they tried to get a deal done before the season. It’s the prudent move this franchise (Elway and Paton) seems to never make. 

 

[Broncofan]

20 minutes ago, BroncoBruin said:

Yeah Dre’Mont is probably gone. The issue (one of the issues) with the tag is it forces you to account for that 19 million dollar cap hit immediately which limits flexibility. Sounds like they made an earnest effort to negotiate but he’s not gonna settle for 15 if he thinks he can get 20, and the Broncos aren’t comfortable at 20 (nor should they be).

Fair for both sides, I just wonder if they tried to get a deal done before the season. It’s the prudent move this franchise (Elway and Paton) seems to never make. 

 

Yeah a 15M AAV extension back then would have been great for Dre’mont security wise but team friendly now in this market.  
 

Building our trenches on both sides going to be top priority.  I don’t blame the FO for balking at 20M AAV for Jones.    I will have a problem if they use the $ to go after WR/RB.  OL no problem.    The media click bait pieces linking us to big $ at RB would be insane roster construction. The RB FA pool is so deep you don’t have to get top tier and upgrade short term (then hit RB R4 for long term hedging in this class).  

Edited March 7, 2023 by Broncofan

[Dbrog24]

Saw in the news thread that Falcons aren't tagging Kaleb McGary and he'll be hitting the market. What do yall think? I think he absolutely fills a crucial hole on our OL especially since we have crappy picks. I wouldn't really mind paying a premium for him, especially if it's a 2 year guarantee or something so we could rebuild if it doesn't work out.

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, Dbrog24 said:

Saw in the news thread that Falcons aren't tagging Kaleb McGary and he'll be hitting the market. What do yall think? I think he absolutely fills a crucial hole on our OL especially since we have crappy picks. I wouldn't really mind paying a premium for him, especially if it's a 2 year guarantee or something so we could rebuild if it doesn't work out.

McGary won't be cheap - but he's def the best RT on the market.   He has real trouble with speed rushers, and can get in trouble with over-extending.    Pure RT, but there's no doubt he'd upgrade the position.   His run game dominance would likely make him a target that Payton wants identity-wise, though.   No argument on his ability in the run game.   Mike McGlinchey is the other name, but he gets routinely beat with power that I don't see Payton would be nearly as interested. 

One thing we never did with Elway - re-set the market in FA.   If we're not spending the $ on Dre'mont, I already said I'd rather we invest in the trenches, so this fits.  It won't be anything but top of market prices - which means we'll still need to find value elsewhere.  

Edited March 8, 2023 by Broncofan

[Cutler06]

Jones is a nice player but he NEVER was a difference maker, if a defensive stop needed to happen, his name wasn't usually heard. The money saved can be better served on finding a RT IMO.

Quote

 

 

[broncos_fan _from _uk]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

One thing we never did with Elway - re-set the market in FA.   

I mean we made juwan James the highest paid RT in NFL history in 2019. So you can’t say never.

 I think we can all agree that re-setting the market for good talent just because it’s the best available is never a great move

[Broncofan]

56 minutes ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

I mean we made juwan James the highest paid RT in NFL history in 2019. So you can’t say never.

 I think we can all agree that re-setting the market for good talent just because it’s the best available is never a great move

At the time, James signed for 4/52M on paper - but the guaranteed $ was 3/32 - below Ricky Wagner's 11M per year.  And Trent Brown was signed at 17M per year that same day (guaranteed at 3/36.5M too) - to play RT (Kolton Miller stayed at LT.    James was a top FA signing, but Elway made it a point to match, but not create new thresholds (the other 2 matches were Talib & Ware...they went a lot better lol).

Either way, though - agreed 100 percent best available guy getting top FA $ that year is a bad move.    McGary might fit what Payton wants to create, and if so, great.   But at some point you have to stick to the value he's worth.    McGlinchy is going to be a great example of this - serviceable guy, but has lots of flaws (the DAL playoff game was obvious).     If we don't go after a big name, top 3 FA RT, we may go after a sleeper swing type like LV's Eluemunor.    I'd be surprised if we went after Jawaan Taylor, given his weakness is in run blocking (but his young age offers intrigue - just don't think it fits what Payton is looking for).

 

Edited March 8, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

Looking at the C/G FA class, there aren't a lot of great targets, but a couple of possibilities, realizing that Payton clearly values run-proficiency mixed with pass-blocking (IE won't get pass-only guys as targets).   

At C, Kelce/Hudson are retiring (and at their age, not a real solution for us anyways).   That leaves the likes of Conor McGovern, Garrett Bradbury or Bradley Bozeman / Ethan Pocic (the latter 2 who really struggled this past year - although Pocic played better late in the season).    The issue with all of them - they have pretty clear flaws, and in some cases (McGovern), can't stay healthy either.   The one intriguing guy is Jake Brendel - who only had 1 year of starting under his belt, but frankly offers more upside.    Excellent pass protector, but also good at the run blocking game.   I hope we target him, esp if he's not terribly priced in the high range.

For the G's, Nate Davis probably stands out the most as the most run-dominant G - but being one of the youngest G's, hard to know how he'll fare salary wise.  Isaac Seumalo & Risner are likely to draw the most attention (Seumalo I like, but I think he's going to draw the biggest contract too).   Guys like Ben Powers & Will Hernandez, being far better at pass pro than run, I'd be surprised if they were targeted.

If I were to guess, one RT and one C/G are coming in FA - but likely only 1 high-$ signing, and 1 more in the mid-tier.    Then attack the DL depth as well.

 

 

Edited March 8, 2023 by Broncofan

[AKRNA]

3 hours ago, Cutler06 said:

Jones is a nice player but he NEVER was a difference maker, if a defensive stop needed to happen, his name wasn't usually heard. The money saved can be better served on finding a RT IMO.

 

Still, losing arguably our best DE, still young, at an area of such concern is a bit galling. Bill Kolar is also gone so getting good production from PS guys is probably at an end .

So, Harris last year, Jones this year. That's a pretty good talent drain at a position of constant need.

 

[paul-mac]

I kind of want us to sign both of the Connor McGoverns. Would be hilarious if that happens. 
 

 

The ex Bronco must be getting on a bit now though 

[Broncofan]

While I think we're likely getting 2 new FA OL (not necessarily both from top FA tier, but can't rely on the draft to find Day 1 starters), I also think with the extra $ that Darby/Glasgow/Emonds/Purcell cuts would bring (bringing us up to 40M+ in cap space), and not re-signing Dre'mont, we'll be looking at 1-2 DL, and probably 1 FA EDGE. 

DL

Some DL guys to look out for:

-Beau Allen - while ARI is a pretty thin roster talent-wise, Allen was one of the stars on D.    His familiarity with Vance Joseph is why there's a connection as well.   Make no mistake, though, Allen would be one guy IMO who's better than Dre'mont.   He likely won't be cheap, but he may come at a lower salary than Jones will.   

-Dalvin Tomlinson - only reason we may not go here is he's been used as 0-1 tech and with DJ Jones in the fold, not exactly the right fit.   But he's been used as a 3-tech as well, and been increasinly effective in interior pass rush as the years have gone by.  Paton's familiarity with him are why I do think his name may come up, plus the fact he shouldn't be a top tier target.  He'll be 29 this year, so I wouldn't go more than 2 guaranteed years here (2 being the right number until our draft depth can restock the roster. 

-David Onyemata - this time, it's more the NO / Payton connection.  At age 30, I def would prefer a 2-year deal with only 1 guaranteed year, with an easy out in case age decline is coming, though.

We have an assortment of older guys or run-only stoppers like A'Shawn Robinson or Poona Ford - if the price is right, it would be a nice way to build interior DL depth for the next 1-2 years until the draft stock replenishes our ability to go young.   We could definitely use a guy to complement DJ Jones when he's not in (and can't rely on just him for 17 games).   A couple of under the radar names that would be solid signings at the value tier - Greg Gaines really was strong in Aaron Donald's absence.   Matt Ioannidas is 29, but he's pretty solid all around. 

The obvious best DL available is Javon Hargreave, but at 30 and likely being a top of the market signing, I don't think it's realistic (nor does it make sense to go that expensive at his age, mine the value tier, and don't commit to potential decline years).

 

EDGE

Marcus Davenport - I would be worried that Payton's connection here would lead us to overpay.   He's probably the most talented EDGE available, but man he's also underproduced, not worth the 2 1sts the Saints gave up to get him. 

If we do look to upgrade EDGE, and Davenport is going to cost big $, I'd instead look to see if we go after the "scrabble" tier - Charles Omenihu & Samson Ebukam from the 49ers, and Ogbonnia Okoronkwo from the Texans (lower-tier alternative being Rasheem Green).   All of these guys are young (Okoronkwo being 28 as the oldest). For everyone but Green, they flashed in more than just last year.

 

If we're not spending to keep Dre'mont, and we're going to create 40M (if not 50M) in cap space, I'd think we can get 2 OL and 3 DL (first year of deals being more front loaded, even if you pay someone 2/24M, as an example, the first year is often 8-9M, a top tier sign at 16M+ AAV often comes with sub-10M year 1 cap hits), assuming "only" 2 of them are top tier signing, and the other 3 are mid & value tier signings.    RB again is a position where we can probably spend less than 5M and get a vet starter to pair with a draft RB as Javonte insurance.   But the key is that we likely only spend for 1 guy in the 15-20M AAV range (10M year 1 cap hit), and 1 guy in the 10-15M AAV range (8M year 1 cap hit), and then the rest in the sub-10M AAV ranges.    Obviously the lower we go in our top signing, the more flexibility we get to fill the roster. 

 

 

 

[AnAngryAmerican]

We released Edmonds and Darby. I’d hope Glasgow is let go soon - he’d save us $11m I believe - but with Risner about to depart maybe they want to keep him? I’d retain Risner for $11m before Glasgow at the same price but what do I know, I'm sure the Risner haters will disagree. 

 

Edited March 10, 2023 by AnAngryAmerican