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QB Talk - Who's up next?


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So, there's obviously a lot of talk about the next starting QB for the Saints. Of course the Derek Carr name has been popping up a lot, but who else is eligible?

We currently have:
Taysom Hill, which I think we all agree, he's not a QB1. He's a great gadget, and I want him, just not as the QB1.
Jameis Winston, which looks like he'll be cut. Clearly DA doesn't want him, although that ship hasn't sailed quite yet. (more comments to come)
Andy Dalton, will become a UFA. and I wouldn't mind if we resigned him, frankly.
 

Considering:
Derek Carr - This guy is so similar to Winston... 6 different head coaches, similar completion %, yards per game, and here's the kicker, Winston actually throws fewer picks to TD's ratio. Take out Winston's final year in Tampa where he went 33Td's to 30INT's, and Winston's stats are much better, in this column.

I haven't heard of any other considerations, but I have to assume they're looking at Mayfield, Garoppolo, and Andy Dalton.

Available(ish):
The field of potential QB's who are slated to be Unrestricted Free Agents, unless they're re-signed, are:
Derek Carr, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Jimmy Garoppolo, Teddy Bridgewater, Daniel Jones (wants $45mil per year), Case Keenum, Jacoby Brissett, Geno, Smith, Taylor Heinicke, Lamar Jackson (we can't afford), Cooper Rush, Tyler Huntley, and Philip Walker.

The guy everyone would love to land would be Lamar Jackson. I don't see it happening due to price, and personally, his style of play scares me. He's an average/slightly above average QB if he doesn't have his legs.

The field is...slim. Of all these potential UFA's, there's not a single one that has me excited about potentially landing.

Thoughts?

 

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I wouldn't mind Carr now that he's a free agent, but with the Jets in the mix I don't think we're the favorites anymore. Our options are so limited that I wouldn't be against running it back with Dalton or signing Mayfield if we miss out on Carr.

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On 2/27/2023 at 10:55 AM, tyler735 said:

If I had to guess it will either be Carr or a QB selected early in the draft such as Hendon Hooker or trading up for Anthony Richardson.

Please no to Richardson.  I'd rather the Saints give up their 1st and 2nd round picks the next 3 years to get either Stroud or Young.

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18 hours ago, Raves said:

Please no to Richardson.  I'd rather the Saints give up their 1st and 2nd round picks the next 3 years to get either Stroud or Young.

I agree he is a big gamble, but if he makes it out of the top 10, I wouldn't be surprised if we were a trade up candidate for him. I'm guessing we would sacrifice a 2nd round pick to trade up at that point. To get into the top 3 for Stroud or Young would take a king's ransom. I doubt the team would be willing to sacrifice the amount of picks it would take to land one of those guys. It would also completely handicap us from keeping them surrounded with talent for years to come.

I will say I'm not opposed to Richardson, but I definitely could see him not panning out at QB in the NFL. I feel like he would have done himself some favors by staying in college 1 more year rather than just giving evaluators just 1 season as a starting QB to go off of. Usually I'm skeptical of QB's with accuracy issues coming out as they generally won't fix it once they come to the NFL. However, there are several examples of college QB's drastically improving on their accuracy after their 1st season as a starting QB. Matthew Stafford was a prime example of this. This is what makes Richardson such a hard prospect to gauge. He has freakish measurables that few can replicate at the position. He also was much more advanced in some areas than I was expecting when I watched his games. He actually had solid pocket presence for a 1st year starter and did show he can get through multiple reads. I thought he continued to show improvement as the season went on. It seems it really comes down to him putting in the time to improve on some of his weaknesses. He also is one of the rare players that even if he busts at QB, he likely will still be successful at another position in the NFL due to his rare athletic gifts.

Seeing these types of plays give me hope for him putting together his natural QB instincts along with his freakish measurables. 

Richardson probably wouldn't be my first choice for how we approach QB in the offseason, but it certainly would be among the highest upside gambles if we do go that direction. I could definitely see him turning into a Cam Newton type threat at QB in a couple years. I'm still a pretty big Hendon Hooker fan though, and would be happy to see us draft him. That's probably my first choice of realistic scenario's this offseason.

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On 3/1/2023 at 11:43 AM, tyler735 said:

I agree he is a big gamble, but if he makes it out of the top 10, I wouldn't be surprised if we were a trade up candidate for him. I'm guessing we would sacrifice a 2nd round pick to trade up at that point. To get into the top 3 for Stroud or Young would take a king's ransom. I doubt the team would be willing to sacrifice the amount of picks it would take to land one of those guys. It would also completely handicap us from keeping them surrounded with talent for years to come.

I will say I'm not opposed to Richardson, but I definitely could see him not panning out at QB in the NFL. I feel like he would have done himself some favors by staying in college 1 more year rather than just giving evaluators just 1 season as a starting QB to go off of. Usually I'm skeptical of QB's with accuracy issues coming out as they generally won't fix it once they come to the NFL. However, there are several examples of college QB's drastically improving on their accuracy after their 1st season as a starting QB. Matthew Stafford was a prime example of this. This is what makes Richardson such a hard prospect to gauge. He has freakish measurables that few can replicate at the position. He also was much more advanced in some areas than I was expecting when I watched his games. He actually had solid pocket presence for a 1st year starter and did show he can get through multiple reads. I thought he continued to show improvement as the season went on. It seems it really comes down to him putting in the time to improve on some of his weaknesses. He also is one of the rare players that even if he busts at QB, he likely will still be successful at another position in the NFL due to his rare athletic gifts.

Seeing these types of plays give me hope for him putting together his natural QB instincts along with his freakish measurables. 

Richardson probably wouldn't be my first choice for how we approach QB in the offseason, but it certainly would be among the highest upside gambles if we do go that direction. I could definitely see him turning into a Cam Newton type threat at QB in a couple years. I'm still a pretty big Hendon Hooker fan though, and would be happy to see us draft him. That's probably my first choice of realistic scenario's this offseason.

Well we got Carr now so Hooker is now our expected backup lol

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Just now, Raves said:

Well we got Carr now so Hooker is now our expected backup lol

Yeah I think that will obviously change our draft strategy. I’d venture to say QB will be pretty low on our draft needs this year. Seems that DL, RB, and possibly WR/TE will need to be addressed as priorities on day 1 and day 2 of the draft. 
 

If we could land any of these players at pick 29, I’d be happy:

Adetomiwa Adebawore 

Bijon Robinson

Jaxon Smith-Njigba 

Darnell Washington

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I doubt Bijan or JSN will be available.

This team has me questioning how the draft should be approached.  With several older players we could look to get their replacements on the roster, but also needing to find potential starters with other spots.  Been using PFF draft simulator to play out potential outcomes.

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10 hours ago, Raves said:

I doubt Bijan or JSN will be available.

This team has me questioning how the draft should be approached.  With several older players we could look to get their replacements on the roster, but also needing to find potential starters with other spots.  Been using PFF draft simulator to play out potential outcomes.

Yeah there certainly are a number of different directions we could go this year in the draft now that Carr is signed. As fun as PFF Draft Simulator is to mess around with, it's not a great barometer of who will be available for us when we pick.

I agree with you though, I doubt Bijan will be there and might need to trade up about 10 slots to make that happen. I'm torn if it's worth it or not, but with addition of Carr, I'm more inclined to do so to as we are in "win now" mode with him.

JSN is a bit of a mystery, he may very well be gone by pick #29, but there are concerns about his speed and ability to play outside. If he runs a slow 40 at his pro day, I could see him dropping as he may just be viewed as a slot specialist. We seem to have a great track record with Ohio State WR's and could certainly use someone that can play in the slot, so I'm all for giving him a shot if he's still there at pick #29.

If we draft Darnell Washington, we have a TE that is a solid receiving threat that should be a weapon in the redzone with his size/athleticism, and will be an elite blocking TE as soon as he enters the league. He's almost like a 6th OL in that regard. If Dennis Allen is planning to run the ball like he did last year, having a guy like Washington would help open up more running lanes for whoever is lined up at RB for us. 

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8 hours ago, tyler735 said:

Yeah there certainly are a number of different directions we could go this year in the draft now that Carr is signed. As fun as PFF Draft Simulator is to mess around with, it's not a great barometer of who will be available for us when we pick.

I agree with you though, I doubt Bijan will be there and might need to trade up about 10 slots to make that happen. I'm torn if it's worth it or not, but with addition of Carr, I'm more inclined to do so to as we are in "win now" mode with him.

JSN is a bit of a mystery, he may very well be gone by pick #29, but there are concerns about his speed and ability to play outside. If he runs a slow 40 at his pro day, I could see him dropping as he may just be viewed as a slot specialist. We seem to have a great track record with Ohio State WR's and could certainly use someone that can play in the slot, so I'm all for giving him a shot if he's still there at pick #29.

If we draft Darnell Washington, we have a TE that is a solid receiving threat that should be a weapon in the redzone with his size/athleticism, and will be an elite blocking TE as soon as he enters the league. He's almost like a 6th OL in that regard. If Dennis Allen is planning to run the ball like he did last year, having a guy like Washington would help open up more running lanes for whoever is lined up at RB for us. 

Well Washington I think is less of a receiver though he has the measurables to be a good one.

Obviously DL is a need, especially DT and there are plenty that would be worth picking at #29, including mini-Darnold possibly or the Clemson DT Breese.  One of my preferred plays in the simulator is if Klancey and Mazi Smith are both available at #29 is to use the #41 pick and next years 2nd to move up to #30 and draft both so that the interior DL is set for the next 10 years with a pass rush specialist and a run stuffer

Other similar options without trading up from #41 is to look at the TCU guard so we can post 1st release Peat for big savings and then in the 3rd get the Florida DT

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1 hour ago, Raves said:

Well Washington I think is less of a receiver though he has the measurables to be a good one.

Yeah I think he will be better in the NFL than he was in college statistically as a receiving threat. It seems it was more due to limited opportunities on a team stacked with options rather than his actual ability limiting his numbers. 

1 hour ago, Raves said:

Obviously DL is a need, especially DT and there are plenty that would be worth picking at #29, including mini-Darnold possibly or the Clemson DT Breese.  One of my preferred plays in the simulator is if Klancey and Mazi Smith are both available at #29 is to use the #41 pick and next years 2nd to move up to #30 and draft both so that the interior DL is set for the next 10 years with a pass rush specialist and a run stuffer

There should be no shortage of options for DL in the late 1st/early 2nd. Tons of talent in this draft at that spot.

1 hour ago, Raves said:

Other similar options without trading up from #41 is to look at the TCU guard so we can post 1st release Peat for big savings and then in the 3rd get the Florida DT

While it’s not a bad idea, I’m just so sick of spending so many early picks on the line every year. Feel like I want to see the team spice things up this year and not grab an OL early in the draft lol

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44 minutes ago, tyler735 said:

Yeah I think he will be better in the NFL than he was in college statistically as a receiving threat. It seems it was more due to limited opportunities on a team stacked with options rather than his actual ability limiting his numbers. 

There should be no shortage of options for DL in the late 1st/early 2nd. Tons of talent in this draft at that spot.

While it’s not a bad idea, I’m just so sick of spending so many early picks on the line every year. Feel like I want to see the team spice things up this year and not grab an OL early in the draft lol

I mean our OL should be set for awhile outside of LG.  Penning/McCoy/Ruiz are all 25 and younger with Ramzy at 28.  Needing to find a long term cheaper replacement for Peat will need to be a need at some point as his contract is pretty big and he's always injured.  Granted we might be able to run Hurst/Penning at OL so maybe not need to draft someone there.

DL though badly needs addressed.  Cam Jordan is 34 and will eventually either leave or retire.  Outside of that at DE Payton Turner has underperformed, Granderson looked good to end the season but who knows how that will continue to play out, Tanoh is decent and was brought back on a reasonable deal, then we have Davenport and Onyemata as FAs though Onyemata seems to want to come back.

Part of the reason we keep having to draft DL early is that we've been missing on them or there was a bad read on whether they could keep up their production, Trey Hendrickson.  I mean it sucks they misjudged Hendrickson's ability to continue staying healthy and playing at that level, but you also can't really blame them considering the previous 3 years of his career.

Though what positions do you think would "spice it up" by drafting early?

CB-We are set if everyone is healthy with a top 3 of Lattimore/Taylor/Adebo with a few veterans after that.

RB-Outside of Bijan at #29, this seems like better value for the Saints to pick someone up from the late 2nd-early 3rd round value.

WR-We just drafted Olave in the 1st which we even traded up for him.  If MT ends up getting an extension/new contract to adjust his future cap hits and has more incentives based on playing time our top 3 WRs of Thomas/Olave/RaShaheed would be good and we'd still have Smith and could look to add a mid-round value WR like the guy from Princeton.

S-Well we could get an eventual Honey Badger replacement.

LB-Werner and Davis are a great duo and while Davis is up there in age and could get a replacement, that's a 2nd round pick with someone like Jack Campbell.

QB-We just brought in Derek Carr.  Granted getting Hooker in the 3rd would be ideal, but taking him in the 2nd after spending all this money on Carr would be foolish if we don't address other parts of the team.

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So here is a simulator I just did.  Going into this, I'm expecting them to resign Onyemata and Juwan Johnson, and not resigning any of the others at the time of the draft.

#29-Calijah Kancey, DT Pittsburgh (Mini-Darnold)

#40-Jack Campbell, LB Iowa (Eventual Davis replacement and had a ridiculous RAS)

TRADE:  #115, 2024 2nd to Seattle for #51

#51-Adetomiwa Adebawore, DL Northwestern (Played all along the line and was another RAS beast)

#71-Zach Charbonnet, RB UCLA (insurance for Kamara and also a good player in his own right)

#148-Colby Wooden, DL Auburn (has good size could probably play some DT as well, good RAS score)

#167-Jakorian Bennet, CB Maryland (add some additional depth at CB and good RAS guy since we know the Saints love their RAS)

#229-Justin Shorter, WR Florida (Big WR that we can look to develop.  Maybe even look to have him do the Juwan move to TE)

#260-Clayton Tune, QB Houston (Just a back-up QB)

A little heavy on the DL, but considering how few sacks we had and the lack of players to man it, this should shore up any issues.

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48 minutes ago, Raves said:

I mean our OL should be set for awhile outside of LG.  Penning/McCoy/Ruiz are all 25 and younger with Ramzy at 28.  Needing to find a long term cheaper replacement for Peat will need to be a need at some point as his contract is pretty big and he's always injured.  Granted we might be able to run Hurst/Penning at OL so maybe not need to draft someone there.

I suppose I was kind of hoping we waited on a Peat replacement until next year, but it’s certainly not uncommon for top tier Guards to slip in the draft a bit, if the right guy slid, I’d certainly understand it, just not as fun of a pick. 

48 minutes ago, Raves said:

DL thought badly needs addressed.  Cam Jordan is 34 and will eventually either leave or retire.  Outside of that at DE Payton Turner has underperformed, Granderson looked good to end the season but who knows how that will continue to play out, Tanoh is decent and was brought back on a reasonable deal, then we have Davenport and Onyemata as FAs though Onyemata seems to want to come back.

There are some absolute freakish DL prospects this year, would hard to be upset if the grabbed one of them. Potentially getting a game changer on the DL would be hard to pass up. 

48 minutes ago, Raves said:

Part of the reason we keep having to draft DL early is that we've been missing on them or there was a bad read on whether they could keep up their production, Trey Hendrickson.  I mean it sucks they misjudged Hendrickson's ability to continue staying healthy and playing at that level, but you also can't really blame them considering the previous 3 years of his career.

Hendrickson is “the one that got away” for me. I really liked him here and was hoping we could find a way to keep him. Obviously salary cap and having so much invested in Davenport made that a tough decision though.

48 minutes ago, Raves said:

Though what positions do you think would "spice it up" by drafting early?

I’m really starting to talk myself into a TE like Darnell Washington with our 1st or 2nd round pick as one of my favorite options. Watching him absolutely eliminate people with his blocking is a joy to watch. He impacted so many plays for Georgia in that aspect of his game yet is still capable of pulling these types of plays off:

48 minutes ago, Raves said:

CB-We are set if everyone is healthy with a top 3 of Lattimore/Taylor/Adebo with a few veterans after that.

Agreed I like that trio. Hoping Taylor or Adebo will take that next step next year to lock down our #2 CB spot. Both have shown flashes.

48 minutes ago, Raves said:

RB-Outside of Bijan at #29, this seems like better value for the Saints to pick someone up from the late 2nd-early 3rd round value.

Yeah I keep going back and forth on if I think it’s worth it to spend a 2nd round pick on Gibbs, Achane, or Spears or chance it and wait until the 3rd round for one of them. My worry is we miss out on all 3 of them if a run starts happening on RB’s. I really want one of those 3 if we miss out on Bijan Robinson as they all are versatile and have game breaking ability to score from anywhere on the field. I feel like if we had a slightly worse pick in the 2nd round I would be all for it. That spark out of the backfield could be so valuable especially if the Kamara situation doesn’t look good for this season.

48 minutes ago, Raves said:

WR-We just drafted Olave in the 1st which we even traded up for him.  If MT ends up getting an extension/new contract to adjust his future cap hits and has more incentives based on playing time our top 3 WRs of Thomas/Olave/RaShaheed would be good and we'd still have Smith and could look to add a mid-round value WR like the guy from Princeton.

I agree, it seems like Thomas is willing to work with the Saints and wants to come back now that we have Carr at QB. If he is willing to make it work, it’s hard to complain about our WR room. I’m really excited to see if Shaheed can build off of last year. I feel the same way though, I wouldn’t mind throwing a day 3 pick at Andrei Iosivas, or Matt Landers

48 minutes ago, Raves said:

S-Well we could get an eventual Honey Badger replacement.

Not too familiar with many yet in this class, but certainly wouldn’t mind a top Safety if one was there early on.

48 minutes ago, Raves said:

LB-Werner and Davis are a great duo and while Davis is up there in age and could get a replacement, that's a 2nd round pick with someone like Jack Campbell.

I haven’t looked into LB’s much yet, but I agree I like Werner and Davis quite a bit.

48 minutes ago, Raves said:

 

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