1st round draft choices

[TransientTexan]

20 minutes ago, ThatJerkDave said:

I am also kind of curious about the Skoronski love across the group here.  Is JRJ that bad that he needs to be replaced?

I think most are thinking of him more in terms of filling the OT need. and if for some reason he doesn’t pan out there, being a good OG is the backup plan.
 

Which is not a shabby backup. Obviously it’s a lesser position value but if you can get a stud there, that’s still good. I feel like I saw multiple hindsight re-drafts placing stud OG’s like Sitton at high picks after knowing he became a perennial pro-bowler. If Skoronski can fill OG, there is other roster flexibility. Maybe Jenkins can get another try at LT now that his knee is fully recovered. Or Jenkins could prove a big upgrade at C if Meyers doesn’t develop. 
 

I’d be happy for Walker/Jones to pan out, but it seems more like lotto tickets to me. 

Having said all that, I have not watched any film of these draft prospects besides Bijan, so just basing it off scout blurbs and other mocks. 

 

[VegasDan]

I could make a case for most of these choices and a couple not even listed. Therefore, if I was in the driver's seat, I would be looking for a trade back.  

 

I chose Branch for the purpose of the poll. The thinking is the next best S is a bigger step than other position groups. Not sure what the plan is with Amos, but he didn't look as good as years past. The same can be said for Savage.  Lot of uncertainty there for the Packers. 

[Sandy]

It would be interesting to know which players were taken in the first 14 picks. I'd wager at least four of these players did not make it to 15.

[MaximusGluteus]

2 hours ago, ThatJerkDave said:

I am also kind of curious about the Skoronski love across the group here. 

I personally don't get it.  I've watched this guy over and over trying to figure out what I might be missing, but the more I watch him the more sure I am he's the most overrated player in this draft by far. 

And when I say watch him, I'm talking full reps from multiple games across the past two seasons, not highlight reels or these dorks on YouTube who put in click bait titles and then show 3 good reps and declare him a superstar.  He has so much bad and mediocre film but gets so much praise. 

Yes, he has good film, but even that is pretty underwhelming the vast majority of the time.  He has middling athleticism, his strength isn't that great, and he's quite often not very assertive as a blocker.  Many times his work on the second level is downright embarrassing because he hesitates or he takes poor angles and doesn't have the athleticism to recover.  Nothing he does is elite or even great.

Maybe he'll get in the league and prove me wrong and be awesome and I'll have to go back and figure where I went wrong, and I'll welcome that because I'm not rooting against the guy, but I just don't see it. 

[MaximusGluteus]

double post

Edited February 26, 2023 by MaximusGluteus

[ThatJerkDave]

37 minutes ago, MaximusGluteus said:

I personally don't get it.  I've watched this guy over and over trying to figure out what I might be missing, but the more I watch him the more sure I am he's the most overrated player in this draft by far. 

And when I say watch him, I'm talking full reps from multiple games across the past two seasons, not highlight reels or these dorks on YouTube who put in click bait titles and then show 3 good reps and declare him a superstar.  He has so much bad and mediocre film but gets so much praise. 

Yes, he has good film, but even that is pretty underwhelming the vast majority of the time.  He has middling athleticism, his strength isn't that great, and he's quite often not very assertive as a blocker.  Many times his work on the second level is downright embarrassing because he hesitates or he takes poor angles and doesn't have the athleticism to recover.  Nothing he does is elite or even great.

Maybe he'll get in the league and prove me wrong and be awesome and I'll have to go back and figure where I went wrong, and I'll welcome that because I'm not rooting against the guy, but I just don't see it. 

Being 100% transparent, I wait until all the RAS numbers are out, then I watch game cut ups of the guys with like 8.5 or higher and the ones that don't stink enough for me to notice are the ones that I like for the Packers.  I have zero idea on the intricacies of OL play, and am just able to point out whether a guy is really, really bad, or not.

But my main feel is that the OL we have was pretty good once it got healthy (certainly was a problem at the beginning of the season), and I am not seeing the difference between end of season JRJ or Nijman vs superstud OL changing the trajectory of the team all that much.

[NFLGURU]

13 hours ago, wgbeethree said:

I'm a Bijan Robinson guy. It doesn't make any sense for us after restructuring Jones and because of position value but if I had a gun to my head to name a future HOF player from this class it would easily by him. 10,000 yards and 100 TDs over/under I'd put my $ on the over. Dude's that good. 

I like him, he'd be a nice weapon for Love to grow with, but we're talking Green Bay and their draft history.   I think he's going to be good too.

[oldmansmell]

4 minutes ago, ThatJerkDave said:

Being 100% transparent, I wait until all the RAS numbers are out, then I watch game cut ups of the guys with like 8.5 or higher and the ones that don't stink enough for me to notice are the ones that I like for the Packers.  I have zero idea on the intricacies of OL play, and am just able to point out whether a guy is really, really bad, or not.

But my main feel is that the OL we have was pretty good once it got healthy (certainly was a problem at the beginning of the season), and I am not seeing the difference between end of season JRJ or Nijman vs superstud OL changing the trajectory of the team all that much.

100%. I mean we have five guys entering either year two or three (right when you would expect someone to get it), I'm more than comfortable just letting that thing play out with a couple of mid-round picks added to the mix. If there was a top tackle I could see it to replace Nijman, but I don't think either guy moves the needle for me. One of Tom/JRJ/Rhyan/Newman is going to pan out - very unlikely Hanson makes it out of camp (if we haven't cut him already). 

I think Van Ness might be the dude Gute falls in love with throughout the process, but we probably have to see him test first.

[NFLGURU]

1 hour ago, MaximusGluteus said:

I personally don't get it.  I've watched this guy over and over trying to figure out what I might be missing, but the more I watch him the more sure I am he's the most overrated player in this draft by far. 

And when I say watch him, I'm talking full reps from multiple games across the past two seasons, not highlight reels or these dorks on YouTube who put in click bait titles and then show 3 good reps and declare him a superstar.  He has so much bad and mediocre film but gets so much praise. 

Yes, he has good film, but even that is pretty underwhelming the vast majority of the time.  He has middling athleticism, his strength isn't that great, and he's quite often not very assertive as a blocker.  Many times his work on the second level is downright embarrassing because he hesitates or he takes poor angles and doesn't have the athleticism to recover.  Nothing he does is elite or even great.

Maybe he'll get in the league and prove me wrong and be awesome and I'll have to go back and figure where I went wrong, and I'll welcome that because I'm not rooting against the guy, but I just don't see it. 

You gotta watch these guys play and know their backgrounds and what makes them tick to determine their value.  A lot of the info needed, we dont have access to.  Goes back to the old notion:

Just because somebody is ranked near the top in college, doesn't mean his game will translate to the NFL.  See Tony Mandarich.  

[TransientTexan]

9 minutes ago, ThatJerkDave said:

But my main feel is that the OL we have was pretty good once it got healthy (certainly was a problem at the beginning of the season), and I am not seeing the difference between end of season JRJ or Nijman vs superstud OL changing the trajectory of the team all that much.

The problem is that the OL that we had in 2022 is not OL that we will have in the future. The draft is about more than just the coming season, especially with 1st rounders. If it was only about the coming year, you could almost justify ignoring the offense in the draft, since the team was a top-5 offense in the final 8 games of 2022, and returns almost everyone in 2023. 
 

When I look at the group we have contracted thru 2024, it’s hard for me to say that there would not be any room for another good Olineman. 

Bakhtiari will likely be gone (cap casualty). Nijman & Runyan will be FA’s. 

We have Jenkins, Z.Tom, & a bunch of unknowns.

And it is very rare for any rookie to change the trajectory of a team in year 1. 

 

[OneTwoSixFive]

26 minutes ago, TransientTexan said:

We have Jenkins, Z.Tom, & a bunch of unknowns.

If you are putting Tom in the 'knowns', I'd venture that Runyan and Nijman (both have accrued 3 years experience) are 'known' now. That doesn't mean they can't get better, just that we have seen enough of them to have a fair idea of what they are.

Myers and Newman (both have 2 years) and all the rookies, fair enough, 

Edited February 25, 2023 by OneTwoSixFive

[TransientTexan]

1 hour ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

If you are putting Tom in the 'knowns', I'd venture that Runyan and Nijman (both have accrued 3 years experience) are 'known' now. That doesn't mean they can't get better, just that we have seen enough of them to have a fair idea of what they are.

Myers and Newman (both have 2 years) and all the rookies, fair enough, 

?

I said in the sentence right above that, that Nijman and Runyan will be free agents in the year that I am discussing. I am talking about 2024, not 2023. The only ‘confirmed’ promising OL we have under contract for 2024 are Jenkins & Tom.

We have seen enough from Meyers and Newman to tell that they are mediocre at best. Including them in the unknowns is actually being charitable to them. If guys like that are penciled in as ‘starter’ for a team, that team will be on the lookout for an upgrade.

[OneTwoSixFive]

57 minutes ago, TransientTexan said:

I said in the sentence right above that, that Nijman and Runyan will be free agents in the year that I am discussing. I am talking about 2024, not 2023. The only ‘confirmed’ promising OL we have under contract for 2024 are Jenkins & Tom.

But why are you assuming they are gone just because they are free agents ?  I'd call them both keepers.

[squire12]

5 minutes ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

But why are you assuming they are gone just because they are free agents ?  I'd call them both keepers.

Some will only count players that are under contract.  They might be keepers, but the player also has to reciprocate and want to stay.  GB may also not have much cap space for them to be kept.

[TransientTexan]

2 hours ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

But why are you assuming they are gone just because they are free agents ?  I'd call them both keepers.

I’m not assuming they’ll be gone. But I’m not assuming they’ll re-sign either, or that GB will think that they can’t be upgraded. How much is GB really willing to spend on guys that are merely “ok”? They might get outbid once the FA money starts flying around.

GB also doesn’t tend to put all their eggs in 1 basket. They’ll often draft a guy to add competition to the mix and get more depth (even if they do end up re-signing the player).  It gives them leverage in negotiations.